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24/25 Astros Offseason thread

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Scraps
Scraps

Once again , thank you Nolan Arenado

Storm the Field
Storm the Field

Lifelong Astros diehard here, but I might have to find a new team with a less annoying fanbase.  I'd have been much more pissed at keeping Tucker and letting him walk for nothing this offseason t

Jshep34
Jshep34

I'm still just excited and happy I lived during this era of astros baseball after 35+ plus years of misery. Don't care what they do. I got to watch my team hang 2 world series titles in my life and s

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ckhorn

ckhorn 226

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

It's based on where you are in the revenue/payroll pecking order. We were over the luxury threshold last year, so higher cost to sign a QO player/lower return to have a QO player sign elsewhere.

If you believe the Astros way of thinking. Past comments is one reason they want to stay under the soft salary cap is because of not wanting to lose that draft capital. This signing tells us another story. Hell, just sign Bregman and Tucker if its not the real issue. I have been a big Crane believer, but this is going to hurt the organization in the future, especially since your GM is supposed to be the real draft guru.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9801

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6 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

It's based on where you are in the revenue/payroll pecking order. We were over the luxury threshold last year, so higher cost to sign a QO player/lower return to have a QO player sign elsewhere.

Correct.

I called this out last year when we signed Hader… that it likely wasn’t going to only hurt us in the 2024 draft (where we lost our 2nd round draft pick by signing him) but also 2025 as well. (Under the argument that Hader was the main reason we went over the CBT, but sure, you can blame Abreu/Montero deals the previous year as well)

and here we are. 
 

if we sign any other FA that rejected their QO we lose our 3rd and 6th round picks as well.

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kevwun

kevwun 16437

Posted
Posted (edited)

Kyle Tucker is going to want more than that by himself, so they're still coming out ahead.  While getting younger at 3rd and a good prospect.  I wish they could just afford to re-sign everyone, but that's only an option if you're the Dodgers which writers can't seem to grasp.

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ckhorn

ckhorn 226

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10 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Kyle Tucker is going to want more than that by himself, so they're still coming out ahead.  While getting younger at 3rd and a good prospect.  I wish they could just afford to re-sign everyone, but that's only an option if you're the Dodgers which writers can't seem to grasp.

Welp. You should be improved at 1st and maybe a net positive at 3rd or not. You should have a better infield. Who the fuck is playing the outfield.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23037

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ckhorn said:

The 1st time that MF may be right. 

Thinking back on the "golden era" what (non-prospects) have we let go that we genuinely regret?

  • Charlie Morton
  • Gerrit Cole
  • Justin Verlander (?)

In all seriousness, is that the complete list?  We made unquestionably the correct call with Correa, Springer, Keuchel, and Yuli.  So, if this list is complete and I am Crane, the only "regrets" are:

  • a non-homegrown pitcher coming off an incredible season seeking a record contract
  • two non-homegrown aging pitchers with a questionable amount of talent left in the tank

Not quite the picture Passan is painting!  Not to mention, we've given big deals to home-grown talent like Altuve, Yordan, Javier (and oh yeah, Bregman a few years ago).  I'll go on the record and say that I am pretty confident that Bregman will be a similar story to Correa and Springer - still a good ballplayer, but not worthy of the long term deal he seeks.  So, the real story is that Jim Crane has largely been proven correct in not wanting to give out giant contracts.

Kyle Tucker is a young star looking to cash in whose current team will likely be unable to make the highest offer.  That's not unique to the Astros, if happens every single year to teams across the league.  Cashing in a year early on a player you know you will lose is generally considered smart when other teams do it, but Astros gotta be the villain I guess.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 39037

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, WBT said:

He's not wrong

Well, it's a little premature to conclude that the Astros are "an objectively lesser team" before they're done spending.

It's also a little silly to conclude that the Astros policy of not giving extremely long-term deals was some sort of mistake when it yielded 2 world championships and 4 AL titles.  Especially when he has to admit, in the very same rant, that the Astros still have the talent to win a World Series.

So, yeah, he is wrong.  He doesn't even have a coherent argument.  It reads like somebody's on a contract to deliver two hot takes per week, and it's the offseason.

 

Edited by TexArcher
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mbtex

mbtex 697

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Astros accumulative 1b stats in 2024 was a 80 wRC+ and -1.9 WAR.

Christian Walker’s 2024 stats was 119 wRC+ and a 3 WAR giving you a net gain of 4.9 WAR at the 1B position.

Alex Bregman in 2024 was 118 wRC+ and a 4.1 WAR

Isaac Parades in 2024 was 117 wRC+ and a 3.7 WAR giving you a net loss of -.4 WAR

So you’re looking at a net gain of 4.5 WAR on the infield.

 

Now go get an outfielder

Edited by mbtex
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Macklemore

Macklemore 2945

Posted
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

How much do you think Boras paid Passan to tweet this novel?

 

 

That’s a triple worthy Tweet. 100% accurate. This one is a walk off HR

Dana doesn’t have any process of long term plan for this team and just throws shit against the wall to see if it sticks. Worst Astros GM since the guy in the 70s who traded away Joe Morgan, Rusty Staub, etc. which was before my time. Fuck Dana and fuck Crane. We are stuck with Jerry Jones 2.0. 

Edited by Macklemore
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closetojumping

closetojumping 65379

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

That’s a triple worthy Tweet. 100% accurate. This one is a walk off HR

Dana doesn’t have any process of long term plan for this team and just throws shit against the wall to see if it sticks. Worst Astros GM since the guy in the 70s who traded away Joe Morgan, Rusty Staub, etc. which was be for my time. Fuck Dana and fuck Crane. We are stuck with Jerry Jones 2.0. 

Were you so fucked up during the Tim Purpura era that you’ve just blacked him out of your mind?

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Macklemore

Macklemore 2945

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Were you so fucked up during the Tim Purpura era that you’ve just blacked him out of your mind?

Tim Púrpura was putrid. Dana is worse than him. Dana was sold as the guy who locked up the Braves talent to long term deals. He is striking out badly on guys who aren’t from 3rd world hellholes. Fuck Crane and his arbitrary 6 year cap on deals and he can stick his $20 tall boys and shove it.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12611

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10 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

That’s a triple worthy Tweet. 100% accurate. This one is a walk off HR

Dana doesn’t have any process of long term plan for this team and just throws shit against the wall to see if it sticks. Worst Astros GM since the guy in the 70s who traded away Joe Morgan, Rusty Staub, etc. which was before my time. Fuck Dana and fuck Crane. We are stuck with Jerry Jones 2.0. 

The draft picks and $?

Arenado was a cheaper cap hit with the $ from St Louis.

And we wouldn’t have lost the 1st and 5th round picks.

Im happy it didn’t go through but Dana is a scout at heat IMO… and values the draft.

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WBT

WBT 20965

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14 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

It's also a little silly to conclude that the Astros policy of not giving extremely long-term deals was some sort of mistake when it yielded 2 world championships and 4 AL titles.  Especially when he has to admit, in the very same rant, that the Astros still have the talent to win a World Series.

My concern is the new policy of (over)spending exclusively on relievers and 33-35 year old position players because they'll take short contracts.

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ckhorn

ckhorn 226

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3 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

The draft picks and $?

Arenado was a cheaper cap hit with the $ from St Louis.

And we wouldn’t have lost the 1st and 5th round picks.

Im happy it didn’t go through but Dana is a scout at heat IMO… and values the draft.

It might have been better to do a 2yr-$45-48 million type of deal to stay under that $50 million threshold.

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ckhorn

ckhorn 226

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2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It's a stopgap hopefully until the farm system is in better shape.  It's this or a complete tear down and rebuild.

With the Hader and now the Walker deals. You set that back at a minimum two years. We still haven't recovered from the draft loses from the scandal. You build through draft and not FA. We wont pay Bregman through the his years of what 36-37, but we are doing it with the Walker deal and we did for Abreu. Its not making much since from my view.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23037

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3 minutes ago, ckhorn said:

With the Hader and now the Walker deals. You set that back at a minimum two years. We still haven't recovered from the draft loses from the scandal. You build through draft and not FA. We wont pay Bregman through the his years of what 36-37, but we are doing it with the Walker deal and we did for Abreu. Its not making much since from my view.

We did offer Bregman a contract through those years, at a higher rate than Walker and he said no.  It's the combination of money and years that don't make sense for a guy who hasn't been All-Star caliber in half a decade.

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The Dog

The Dog 44853

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20 minutes ago, mbtex said:

Astros accumulative 1b stats in 2024 was a 80 wRC+ and -1.9 WAR.

Christian Walker’s 2024 stats was 119 wRC+ and a 3 WAR giving you a net gain of 4.9 WAR at the 1B position.

Alex Bregman in 2024 was 118 wRC+ and a 4.1 WAR

Isaac Parades in 2024 was 117 wRC+ and a 3.7 WAR giving you a net loss of -.4 WAR

So you’re looking at a net gain of 4.5 WAR on the infield.

 

Now go get an outfielder

Paredes' WAR was 2.7 last year but it's still a net gain. 

5 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

The draft picks and $?

Arenado was a cheaper cap hit with the $ from St Louis.

And we wouldn’t have lost the 1st and 5th round picks.

Im happy it didn’t go through but Dana is a scout at heat IMO… and values the draft.

This is a good point - and we also lost $1 million in international bonus pool money. 

5 minutes ago, WBT said:

My concern is the new policy of (over)spending exclusively on relievers and 33-35 year old position players because they'll take short contracts.

I think that policy existed as long as we had no GM and Bagwell was fucking the goat. It's over. We needed to upgrade at first base and did so.

The Astros want to develop players, then get them to the bigs on the cheap, then if they are worth keeping try to extend them and buy out their arbitration years plus a few more. The Astros did this with Altuve, Bregman, Javier, and Alvarez. Altuve is the only one who is sticking around. 

Get the most out of their primes on the cheap then let them walk to a team that will give them an albatross of a contract where they get paid the most when they are the least productive. 

This has generally worked out except for Gerrit Cole - who we should have backed up the Brinks truck to keep. 

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Ojo Rojo

Ojo Rojo 2053

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43 minutes ago, WBT said:

He's not wrong

Yes he is.  If a player doesn't work out (Abreu), which happens to everyone, you don't double down on dumb shit.  Nothing they can do about Abreu's deal.  They can't afford Tucker so they got good value for him now.  They can't afford Bregman either, so they have signed two players that actually makes the infield better.  Santander and we're golden.

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WBT

WBT 20965

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10 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Yes he is.  If a player doesn't work out (Abreu), which happens to everyone, you don't double down on dumb shit. 

We just tried to trade for another Abreu and when that didn't work, pivoted to signing a guy for his 34-36 year old seasons.  Feels like doubling down.

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ckhorn

ckhorn 226

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Just now, Scraps said:

Not even remotely the same.  

We agree to disagree. I'm agreement with most here into not getting into these plus seven year contracts, but six is doable. If they need to go beyond, then put some vesting options in it. If you can get the other parties to agree. 

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ckhorn

ckhorn 226

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Fud said:

Dana is closer to run of the mill average than terrible 

We’re spoiled after having two sharp GMs (Luhnow and Click)

Not keeping Click was an obvious inflection point 

Brown is here for his drafting chops, then we get rid of all our draft picks LOL.

Edited by ckhorn
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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23037

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Posted
We agree to disagree. I'm agreement with most here into not getting into these plus seven year contracts, but six is doable. If they need to go beyond, then put some vesting options in it. If you can get the other parties to agree. 

We offered six to Bregman. There’s no universe where Tucker accepts six. What’s the argument here?
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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9801

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2 hours ago, The Dog said:

Paredes' WAR was 2.7 last year but it's still a net gain. 

This is a good point - and we also lost $1 million in international bonus pool money. 

I think that policy existed as long as we had no GM and Bagwell was fucking the goat. It's over. We needed to upgrade at first base and did so.

The Astros want to develop players, then get them to the bigs on the cheap, then if they are worth keeping try to extend them and buy out their arbitration years plus a few more. The Astros did this with Altuve, Bregman, Javier, and Alvarez. Altuve is the only one who is sticking around. 

Get the most out of their primes on the cheap then let them walk to a team that will give them an albatross of a contract where they get paid the most when they are the least productive. 

This has generally worked out except for Gerrit Cole - who we should have backed up the Brinks truck to keep. 

That Cole deal is still going to be ugggly at the end

 

but it probably  gets you a ring in ‘21, and maybe ‘20.

hell maybe ‘23 as well.

 

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Ojo Rojo

Ojo Rojo 2053

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1 hour ago, WBT said:

We just tried to trade for another Abreu and when that didn't work, pivoted to signing a guy for his 34-36 year old seasons.  Feels like doubling down.

It remains to be seen if Arenado and Walker fall off a cliff like Abreu did.  Unlikely.  That was a spectacular and unexpected fall.  Doubling down would be saddling the club with long, super expensive contracts.  That is not the way.

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WBT

WBT 20965

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Posted
20 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

It remains to be seen if Arenado and Walker fall off a cliff like Abreu did.  Unlikely.  That was a spectacular and unexpected fall.  Doubling down would be saddling the club with long, super expensive contracts.  That is not the way.

And if those longer contracts are the only way to get guys in their 28-32 age prime seasons? You can't afford it for everyone but never doing it is tying one arm behind your back 

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