Jump to content

24/25 Astros Offseason thread


Wulaw Horn

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Guadaloopy said:

Man… y’all some ungrateful assholes turning on Bregs like this.  He’s a top tier Astro player in Astro history, simply for being a key element of both WS winning seasons.  Don’t try to wedge in every lovable Astro ahead of him.  
 

Put some respeck on the man’s name.   What’s happening now is just business.  He already gave the organization a discount on some of his prime seasons once.   

Yep.  I already said I hope he rapes the Astros front office for all the pennies he can....especially after the Arenado debacle.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:


4) he had a full no trade clause

This is the biggest issue to me.  He has too many rights.  He pretty much strongarmed it to one team and one team only so of course they arent going to give us shit.  

If we could have had all the teams as an option I bet we would have done better even with all other things considered....especially when it was known we were gonna end up sending $$ too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Guadaloopy said:

He already gave the organization a discount on some of his prime seasons once.   

Picking nits, but nothing was “given”.  He signed a deal exchanging presumed market value for security.  His next deal, unless he wants to go one year at a time, will have the same bargain presumed of it.  
 

The negativity is because it doesn’t look like there’s a better deal out there and the Astros are showing a lot of restraint in leaving their offer on the table.  It’s probably not altruistic on their part, as Bergman’s “butts in seats” value is probably higher in Houston than elsewhere (plus, there’s not another obvious candidate to spend the Bregman money on currently), but it’s also out there helping Bregman establish a floor in negotiations with other teams. 

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LCHorn said:

Picking nits, but nothing was “given”.  He signed a deal exchanging presumed market value for security.  His next deal, unless he wants to go one year at a time, will have the same bargain presumed of it.  
 

The negativity is because it doesn’t look like there’s a better deal out there and the Astros are showing a lot of restraint in leaving their offer on the table.  It’s probably not altruistic on their part, as Bergman’s “butts in seats” value is probably higher in Houston than elsewhere (plus, there’s not another obvious candidate to spend the Bregman money on currently), but it’s also out there helping Bregman establish a floor in negotiations with other teams. 

Or you could pocket that money over the next six years and get a longterm deal done with Brown and/or Framber. We have replaced Bregman's offensive production twofold in Paredes and Walker. What we don't need is Altuve or Paredes playing LF, instead go sign a real MLB caliber OF to play LF or at least compete with the OFs already in the org.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Picking nits, but nothing was “given”.  

Completely agree.  It was a mutually beneficial extension.  As things played out, the Astros extracted significant value out of that contract.  That's what I mean by "gave."  From strictly a $$$/WAR perspective, Bregs gave the organization more than it paid for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Or you could pocket that money over the next six years and get a longterm deal done with Brown and/or Framber. We have replaced Bregman's offensive production twofold in Paredes and Walker. What we don't need is Altuve or Paredes playing LF, instead go sign a real MLB caliber OF to play LF or at least compete with the OFs already in the org.

We also need another left handed hitter. Signing Bergman to a 6 year deal when he’s already had dropping production and a shoulder injury is not the answer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Or you could pocket that money over the next six years and get a longterm deal done with Brown and/or Framber.

Bregman money isn’t coming at their expense unless you subscribe to bullshit baseball owner economics.  If Brown and Brown want to make a deal there’s plenty of money for that and both of those guys should be able to moved absent LMJ type arm catastrophe (I.e., in case the teams ends up shitty inspite of them).  

20 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Bergman to a 6 year deal when he’s already had dropping production and a shoulder injury

More valid, imo.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Reds signed Austin Hays today for 1-$5M. I'd reach out to see if we could get Benson on the cheap. Perfect guy to platoon in RF.

This is the kind of off season baseball shit I love. 
No other sport can match baseball’s ability to mimic me in the kitchen:

adding ingredients and hoping the recipe works.

And this chili definitely needs more cumin.

 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Keith Law had finished his farm system rankings and we’re 2nd from the bottom.  Not terribly shocking as he’s always appeared to dislike Houston’s farm and development, now across multiple GM’s. 
 

Quote

The Astros didn’t have a top-100 prospect until they picked up Cam Smith from the Cubs in the Kyle Tucker trade, which is the result of a lot of years of, frankly, not very good drafts. The 2019 draft gave them Hunter Brown; he’s the last Astros draft pick to generate 1 WAR of major-league value. They’ve drafted a lot of position players who project as platoon or extra guys, and a lot of pitchers who project as fifth starters — often guys with command but not stuff — or middle relievers. And they’ve traded some solid prospects, including Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, Chayce McDermott, and Drew Gilbert, further depleting the system.

I’m not sure his analysis is correct about draft success, as restoring those four lost picks for the trash can stuff would possibly make a huge difference (I’ve been going through draft results on baseball reference and there’s not really a trend line where a single team is just killing the draft after round one).  
 

I think where Houston has really had poor results is the international signings and that’s going back to Luhnow.  
 

Also interesting is he doesn’t rank Baltimore or Atlanta very highly.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

Keith Law had finished his farm system rankings and we’re 2nd from the bottom.  Not terribly shocking as he’s always appeared to dislike Houston’s farm and development, now across multiple GM’s. 
 

I’m not sure his analysis is correct about draft success, as restoring those four lost picks for the trash can stuff would possibly make a huge difference (I’ve been going through draft results on baseball reference and there’s not really a trend line where a single team is just killing the draft after round one).  
 

I think where Houston has really had poor results is the international signings and that’s going back to Luhnow.  
 

Also interesting is he doesn’t rank Baltimore or Atlanta very highly.  

A couple things…he states that he values upside and tools when doing his rankings/evals. You can argue that it’s not the optimal approach, but at least he states his position. The big tools guys have been gone by the time the Astros draft for a decade, so it’s not surprising that the system isn’t loaded with them.

As for the “bad drafting” comment - you kinda have to factor in that they’ve been drafting at the bottom of every round for a long time and that their top two picks were confiscated in consecutive years recently. And that they’ve been drafting as a team with a championship window (meaning you may be smart to take older guys who are close to ready to contribute anyway).

I don’t necessarily think he’s wrong; he may undervalue the cheap “platoon” and “5th starter” guys that the system has consistently produced, but at least he kind of acknowledges that up front. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Urquidy, Valdez, Garcia, and Javier disagree.

I don’t think evaluating performance based on what you did in 2017 and when you’ve had almost 100% turnover among key decision makers is a good way to evaluate results.  Is that how you or your firm run the business?

 

31 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

As for the “bad drafting” comment - you kinda have to factor in that they’ve been drafting at the bottom of every round for a long time and that their top two picks were confiscated in consecutive years recently.

Maybe, but that’s the kind of Jose De Jesus Ortiz excuse making I’ve seen written to justify poor performance since the 90’s.  Law has the Dodgers and Red Sox and his 2nd and 3rd ranked teams and they had to deal with similar draft positions and signing bonus pools (more so the Dodgers, obviously).

Bear in mind I don’t agree with Law-I think we’ve had at least average drafts in terms of pushing players into the majors, and I also think we’ve had some really bad luck.  I don’t know how we end up with perennial head case Forrest Whitley but Cleveland keeps drafting college pitchers that end up cheap top rotation guys, often guys we’ve passed on.  
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t think evaluating performance based on what you did in 2017 and when you’ve had almost 100% turnover among key decision makers is a good way to evaluate results.  Is that how you or your firm run the business?

Maybe you shouldn't make blanket stupid statements that are easily rebuked and then cry about it when it is brought to your attention. All of those pitchers were cheap international signings that took place under Luhnow. All of them have outproduced what any of the "talent" evaluators ever expected for them. You could have easily said that it doesn't appear that the Astros have had the same success they did in international signings from the early Luhnow years, and everyone would have agreed with you, but then again that also would not be a good way to evaluate results.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

You could have easily said that it doesn't appear that the Astros have had the same success

Honestly, I thought given that the board is relatively well-informed that I wouldn't need to be so pedantic.  I mean, this isn't Clutchfans....

Thank you for highlighting that Luhnow had some international signing that worked out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Keith law is a cunt. 
he told me that Hunter Brown would be lucky to be a 7th inning guy. And that Yordan was a fringe top 100 guy. He knows shit all about the Astros system. Fuck him. 

I still think it all stems from Luhnow telling him thanks but no thanks when he applied for a position with the front office. It’s definitely entered axe to grind territory….looked it up, and it was in 2012.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...