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24/25 Astros Offseason thread


Wulaw Horn

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1 hour ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Dome Hideout was awesome. Went several times that year, felt like it was in there two or three years but I’ll take the committeeman’s word for it. Going down the tunnel and then onto the floor, throwing down $6 crown and cokes, and looking up at the Astrodome ceiling as you two stepped with some young drunk lass in a denim skirt was peak bachelorhood for me. 

The current set up is giant tent bolted to the parking lot. If memory serves, they don’t even bother with a temporary floor. It’s also a 30+ minute walk from NRG Stadium with all the foot traffic.

There were rumors of lots of fights last year, so I’ve kept my distance. Gotta be young and really into live music to make a go of it.

 

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I thought this was an interesting analysis of the Framchise, including changes in his pitch usage (more changeups) and why he might be throwing his sinker harder:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/framber-valdez-made-a-change/

 

Quote

Framber Valdez Made a Change

Ben Clemens

If you had to associate a single current major leaguer with throwing sinkers, Framber Valdez would be toward the top of the list. His standout career is all about throwing sinkers and keeping the ball on the ground. So imagine my surprise when I was perusing a leaderboard of starters who used their secondaries most frequently with two strikes in 2024. The top of that list is dotted with pitchers who confounded my classification system: We’ve got Corbin Burnes, Graham Ashcraft, and Clarke Schmidt there representing the cutter brigade. Most of the other pitchers in the top 10 mix in cutters liberally with two strikes. Then we’ve got Valdez, in 10th and looking sorely out of place.

Train your eyes on Valdez, and you’ll start to ask yourself: What’s going on here? In some ways, his statistics are consistent to the point of monotony. Take a look at his strikeout and walk rates over the years, plus some league-adjusted run prevention numbers:

Steady as She Goes – Framber Valdez, Career

Year K% BB% ERA- FIP-
2018 22.1% 15.6% 53 112
2019 20.7% 13.4% 130 110
2020 26.4% 5.6% 81 64
2021 21.9% 10.1% 73 95
2022 23.5% 8.1% 73 78
2023 24.8% 7.1% 82 82
2024 24.0% 7.8% 73 80

After some early-career wildness, Valdez has produced a string of near-identical seasons. But while doing that, he’s cut back on using his sinker to finish off hitters. I know what you’re thinking: Sure, to throw his wipeout curveball. But nope! It’s a changeup story:

Two-Strike Pitch Usage

Year Two-Strike SI% Two-Strike CU% Two-Strike SL% Two-Strike CH%
2018 46.3% 50.9% 0.0% 2.8%
2019 35.3% 64.7% 0.0% 0.0%
2020 36.6% 58.8% 0.0% 4.6%
2021 35.3% 56.5% 0.0% 8.2%
2022 30.9% 49.5% 13.2% 6.4%
2023 22.1% 41.7% 17.2% 13.9%
2024 22.8% 50.6% 7.0% 19.6%

Early in his career, Valdez didn’t throw many changeups. He used the pitch between 5% and 10% of the time, almost exclusively to righties; it was an emergency option that he mostly avoided. That was with good reason: With a nasty sinker and wipeout curve, he simply didn’t want to give hitters a break from his two top options.

Valdez’s curveball seems like the perfect two-strike pitch. It’s huge and frequently misses the zone low; hitters defending the plate are liable to end up fishing at something that bounces if he starts it on the same plane as his sinker. But the fish haven’t been biting in recent years. Putaway percentage is a simple statistic – strikeouts per two-strike pitches thrown. It shows a clear trend:

Curveball Putaway Rate

Year Putaway%
2018 20.0%
2019 36.7%
2020 37.0%
2021 32.1%
2022 29.9%
2023 26.6%
2024 25.6%

If you ask our pitch-based models, his curveball is broadly unchanged. It’s one of the nastiest in baseball, and he locates it acceptably well; it’s never going to be pinpoint given the huge movement. Nothing much has changed on that front, though, which is what we care about. It’s still mostly the same pitch, but batters just aren’t being fooled as frequently. That feels logical to me; when a guy throws one signature pitch for seven years, well-compensated elite athletes who are paid to beat that guy will get better at facing it.

Valdez hasn’t been taking this erosion in curveball effectiveness sitting down, though. First, he dabbled with incorporating a slider, as you can see in the two-strike usage chart. But in 2024, he hit on a new approach, and the changeup is now ascendant. If you take a quick look at one, it’s easy to see why Valdez might lean on it. Much has been made of his harder sinker and attendant decline in groundball rate. But that harder sinker (94.1 mph in 2024, up from 92-93 earlier) has meant harder changeups too, and the new Valdez changeup benefits greatly. A 90-mph changeup is just nasty:

That’s particularly tough on righties, and Valdez mostly throws the pitch when he has a platoon disadvantage. But in two-strike counts, he’s seen the benefits of diversification even to lefties. Check out the difference between all counts and two-strike counts:

Framber Valdez, Changeup Usage

Year LHH, All Counts LHH, Two Strikes RHH, All Counts RHH, Two Strikes
2018 3.6% 0.0% 3.5% 3.5%
2019 3.8% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0%
2020 1.9% 0.0% 11.0% 7.2%
2021 1.3% 2.7% 14.4% 9.8%
2022 0.3% 0.5% 11.3% 8.0%
2023 6.1% 12.7% 17.9% 14.3%
2024 9.3% 18.2% 19.0% 19.8%

How has that changeup done? By putaway percentage, it’s no better than his curveball. It doesn’t induce more whiffs or lead to a higher chase rate. But there’s one major difference between the two pitches: The changeup gets an absolute ton of grounders.

I mentioned Valdez’s harder sinker and declining groundball rate up above. It would feel disingenuous to write about him and not mention that major change. But how many grounders you generate isn’t exclusively about how many grounders your fastball generates. Believe it or not, Valdez’s sinker was the least grounder-friendly of his three main pitches in 2024:

Framber Valdez, Grounder Rate by Pitch Type

Year SI GB% CU GB% CH GB%
2018 78.0% 81.0% 33.3%
2019 64.2% 63.9% 71.4%
2020 61.7% 57.8% 60.0%
2021 74.9% 60.3% 67.9%
2022 68.4% 59.6% 74.5%
2023 53.5% 59.8% 58.1%
2024 57.8% 60.0% 77.6%

That might look weird, but his changeup is heavy. Measured in terms of vertical movement relative to similar-velocity pitches of the same type, it has more unexpected drop than his sinker. Changeups are grounder-friendly pitches to begin with, and he also locates it down, as shown by our new heat maps:

Valdez-CH-Location.png

Since you might not have seen a heat map of this exact style before, here’s his sinker for comparison:

Valdez-SI-Location.png

Now things are starting to make a little more sense. Valdez’s changeup has a lot of similarities to his sinker, naturally enough. It’s heavy because everything he throws is heavy. But it’s a little bit more so, at the cost of missing the zone more frequently. That sounds like a two-strike pitch to me – and indeed, to Valdez.

If you’re just interested in results, you might not notice this change. Valdez just finished putting up a season worth between 3.5 and 4.5 WAR for the third straight year – or between 4.5 and 5.5 WAR if you believe in his ability to consistently outperform his FIP. (I surely do, the grounders matter.) The two previous years were interrupted by injury, but aggregate them into a single 32-start season, and they fit the pattern as well. The guy delivers the same season every year.

Under the hood, though, we’re talking about a new and different Valdez. It always felt surprising that he was able to handle major league hitters with only two real offerings. Surely they’d adjust at some point and force him to throw something else. Well, they have – and he has too. Score one for stars finding a way to succeed, even if it’s not the way they’ve done it in the past.

 

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15 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The current set up is giant tent bolted to the parking lot. If memory serves, they don’t even bother with a temporary floor. It’s also a 30+ minute walk from NRG Stadium with all the foot traffic.

There were rumors of lots of fights last year, so I’ve kept my distance. Gotta be young and really into live music to make a go of it.

 

Still has a dance floor the rest is just on concrete, I haven't seen many fight in there over the years.   However as I have aged stay in the main club or stockman's club these days. 

#builtforthis

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Astros general manager Dana Brown appeared to close the door on a reunion with free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman on Tuesday, telling reporters at a media luncheon at Daikin Park that “we lost [right fielder Kyle] Tucker and Bregman,” while discussing the additions of Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes.

 

Dana Brown implies Astros-Alex Bregman reunion unlikely

 

"Lost Tucker?" You traded him, dumbass!

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I saw someone tweet yesterday he expected Bregman to sign today with the Cubs for 4 yr around 105M.  I tried to fact check him and he looked like just some rando so wasn't sure if he really fucking knows anything or not.  

 

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Keith Law top 20 Astros prospects write up.

Spoiler

The Astros had no top 100 prospects until they traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs, adding Chicago’s 2024 first-rounder, Cam Smith, who of course is now Houston’s new No. 1 prospect. It’s just not a very good system, with nobody I would comfortably project as more than a fourth starter or a utility infielder/extra outfielder after Smith.

(Note: Tools are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale; ages as of July 1, 2025.)

1. Cam Smith, 3B (No. 43 on the top 100)

Height: 6-3 | Weight: 224 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22

Smith was a draft-eligible sophomore last year who reworked his swing and his body to surge to a .387/.488/.654 line in his sophomore year at Florida State, raising his average by over 100 points, and landing with the Cubs at the No. 13 pick. He then had the best pro debut of any prospect in the draft, hitting .313/.396/.609 across three levels and finishing up in Double A. That ended his Cubs career, as they traded him to Houston in the  Tucker deal this offseason, immediately making him the Astros’ No. 1 prospect. Smith’s swing gets the bat to the zone quickly, and he makes a lot of very hard contact, topping out over 115 mph in the spring for Florida State, and the Cubs already managed to get him to lift the ball more often to turn that loud contact into more power.

He’s only played third base since signing and that’s his best long-term outcome; that seemed like wishful thinking as recently as 2023, but his improved conditioning gives him a chance to stay there, with first base or right field also possibilities. He looks like he can flat-out hit, and might get to 25 homers too. If he does that as a third baseman, he might be able to fill Alex Bregman’s shoes in Houston and make a few All-Star teams.

2. Jacob Melton, OF

Height: 6-2 | Weight: 208 | Bats: L | Throws: L | Age: 24

Melton hit .253/.310/.426 combined between Double A and Triple A last year, and continued to fail to hit lefties at all, with a .235/.302/.296 line against them that only underscores his future as a platoon player. He’s a 70 defender in center and has real juice against righties, with a .479 slugging percentage off them last year and 14 of his 15 homers, although he is never going to be an on-base threat against righties or lefties. Houston took Melton in the second round in 2022, after the since-traded Drew Gilbert. He’s 24 now so further development is unlikely, but not impossible.

3. Brice Matthews, SS

Height: 5-10 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23

Houston’s 2023 first-round pick, Matthews got off to a misleadingly “hot” start in High-A Asheville, one of the best hitters’ parks in the minors, hitting .321/.423/.580 there for 21 games. It started to come apart in Double A, where he hit a respectable .252/.376/.497 but struck out 34 percent of the time, and then he didn’t hit at all in a dozen games in Triple A. He can’t hit breaking stuff at all right now, even missing a lot of sliders in the zone, and he didn’t do much with good velocity when he saw it. He’s a 55 defender at short and an easy plus runner who could probably handle center. The Astros moved him around the infield instead, giving him some time at third and a few games at second. He’s still very pull-oriented, with most of his fringy power out to left, which may be contributing to some of the trouble with breaking balls. It might be a 40 hit tool, with defense and speed enough to get him to the majors as a utility infielder. He did have a back injury early in the year that could have affected his game, so it’s possible we’ll see better results in 2025 once he’s had an offseason to reset.

4. Zach Dezenzo, 3B/1B

Height: 6-5 | Weight: 220 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 25

Dezenzo dealt with a wrist injury much of 2024 but hit well in the minors when he played, and showed some hard contact in his very short time in the majors. He even played a bit in the Puerto Rican Winter League this offseason to get more at-bats, something I wish more teams would encourage players to do to help both those players and that league in general. He kept his contact rate up through his time in Triple A without losing any of that contact quality, with a hard-hit rate of 53 percent on the 70 balls he hit into play. He’s an above-average defender at third who played a little left field in San Juan and looked good enough to make that an option as well. It wasn’t a great year between the injuries and the tough look in the majors, but Dezenzo should be an average regular somewhere for the Astros this year if they give him another shot.

AP23156159405182-scaled-e1713318803983.j
Walker Janek went in the first round last year. (Matthew Hinton / Associated Press)

5. Walker Janek, C

Height: 6-0 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22

Janek had a reputation as the best defensive catcher in the 2024 draft class, which is why the Astros took him in the first round with the No. 28 pick last July. He has a plus arm and is an above-average receiver when he’s at full strength, which is the key question about him after he looked bad in his pro debut. Scouts who saw him in A-ball were surprised how slow everything looked, both on defense and at the plate. He struck out 30 times in 103 PA in Asheville, an aggressive assignment for a kid from a mid-major program but also a tremendous place to hit. He had just four walks there and a line of .175/.214/.289. He’s diabetic, so the question is whether he was showing normal fatigue after a long spring, or the effects of the illness. If he can handle the workload at a very physically demanding position, he has power and the potential for plus defense, which would make him a potential everyday catcher or better.

6. A.J. Blubaugh, RHP

Height: 6-2 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24

Blubaugh was primarily a reliever at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee when the Astros took him in the seventh round in 2022, so 2023 was his first full year as a starter, making his rapid gains in 2024 a little easier to understand. He held his stuff well over the course of the year and spent most of the season in Triple A, striking out 24.5 percent of batters he faced, using a whole kitchen sink to do it — four-seamer, sweeper, cutter, changeup, and occasionally a curveball. He used the changeup a lot more and got chases on it, but it’s maybe a 45 and he needs to keep working on his feel for it or just try to use the cutter for lefties. It’s a high slot and command might always limit his ceiling to that of a fourth starter. His probability of sticking in the rotation has gone up substantially since last offseason.

7. Chase Jaworsky, SS

Height: 6-1 | Weight: 171 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 20

Jaworsky was Houston’s fifth-round pick in 2023, a hard-nosed shortstop who should stick at the position, runs above average to plus, and makes a ton of contact. He hit .233/.335/.346 last year as a 19-year-old in Low A, striking out only 20.7 percent of the time, lacking power or hard contact for now. It was a big jump from Colorado high school competition to Low A and he hit better than I would have guessed — especially since he played through a broken finger for the last month of the season. He may take three to four more years to develop, and it will depend a lot on strength, but he has the ceiling of an everyday shortstop.

8. Jose Fleury, RHP

Height: 6-0 | Weight: 185 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23

Fleury has a 70 changeup and will end up in the big leagues somehow on the strength of that pitch, although it would help if he got a little more to the fastball, sitting more 92-94 than 90-92. His slider is a 45 if you like it and it looks like he doesn’t spin the ball that well, so it’s fastball/change and likely relief between the lack of a third pitch and fringy control. He missed a big chunk of 2024 with a thigh injury and maxed out at five innings in some late-season starts, which is great for his development even though it’s much more likely he will end up in the ‘pen.

9. Luis Baez, OF

Height: 6-1 | Weight: 225 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 21

Baez has some big tools, but I’m worried that “hit” might not be one of them, not after a .263/.300/.479 line in one of the best hitter’s parks in the minors, Asheville. He hit .214/.267/.375 on the road last year, including a few games in Double A, and his approach in any park leaves a lot to be desired, with a 34 percent chase rate and huge whiff rates on breaking stuff. Data from Synergy Sports show him seeing more sliders than fastballs last year, probably because, as the Stereophonics said, word gets around. He does have at least 60 power with the exit velocities to back that up, and he still hit 21 homers last year even with all of his holes at the plate. He’s big already for 21, not needing projection, but almost certain to end up in right field (thanks to a plus arm), so he really has to hit. He should return to Double A, since Asheville isn’t a great spot for developing a hitter; just keep your expectations low in the early going.

10. Ethan Pecko, RHP

Height: 6-2 | Weight: 195 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22

Drafted in the sixth round in 2023 out of Towson, Pecko blew through Houston’s system last year en route to winning their minor league pitcher of the year award. He started in Low A and missed a ton of bats (33 percent) with a few too many walks, but the Astros moved him up, and he performed better in High A, so they moved him up again, and he just kept rolling even as the Astros had him take some turns in long relief to manage his innings. Pecko worked on his conditioning last offseason and showed up in 2024 in better shape, along with bringing another 3+ mph on his high-spin fastball. That’s his best pitch, with huge carry and run, and the highest whiff rate among his arsenal; his slider and curve also have high spin rates but they’re short and the slider is slow, in the low 80s, so neither misses many bats. He’s already come a long way and should be able to make some further adjustments, like altering the slider (I hate to say it, but maybe a sweeper would be better) to try to find a second above-average pitch. His delivery works and he throws strikes to start if he can get something else beyond the heater.

11. Anderson Brito, RHP

Height: 5-10 | Weight: 155 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 20

Brito signed in November 2023 for $10,000, when he might have topped out at 93, but by spring training last year he had gained 15 pounds and was up to 99 with hop and spin. The Astros now have to build out his arsenal, and they tried everything last year, with the changeup showing some promise, no feel for a curveball, and maybe enough of a slider — high spin, short break — to give him a third weapon. He’s 20, but in pitching years he might be more like 17, and he may take some time … or he could show up this year throwing 107.

12. Kenni Gomez, OF

Height: 5-11 | Weight: 201 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 20

Gomez barely played in 2023 around multiple injuries, so the Cuban outfielder had just 53 games of total pro experience between the DSL and the Florida Complex League before 2024. He hit .265/.338/.415 as a 19-year-old in 87 games in Low A before scuffling in a 20-game run in High A at the end of the year. He’s an above-average runner and a similar defender in center, while his projected power is just starting to show up in games and it may be another two or three years before he’s a 20-homer hitter. He gets plaudits for his work ethic and pregame routine, giving some more confidence that he’ll make adjustments and get the most out of his frame. The next adjustment he’ll have to make is to swing less, as he chases too often (33 percent) and will follow a breaking ball down to his doom.

USATSI_22684852-scaled.jpg
Shay Whitcomb was the last player selected in the five-round 2020 draft. (Jim Rassol / USA Today)

13. Shay Whitcomb, SS

Height: 6-0 | Weight: 202 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 26

Whitcomb is best known for his work on “Boardwalk Empire” and in several of the “Fast & Furious” movies, although I especially enjoyed his turn as a sodden detective in “See How They Run” … wait, I’m being told I have the wrong guy. Let’s try again: Whitcomb reached the majors last year, four years after the Astros took him with the final pick in the 2020 draft, making him that year’s Mr. Irrelevant (in the fifth round, of course). He’s a true shortstop with surprising power, hitting 35 homers in 2023 between Double A and Triple A, then 25 last year in Triple A before the Astros called him up to play some third and second. That last bit didn’t go so well, but he hit the ball hard, and often, and he could probably hit 20 homers with a low .300s or even .290ish OBP if someone let him play every day. He’s 26, so what you see is what you get.

14. Miguel Ullola, RHP

Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23

Ullola threw 130 1/3 innings last year, all but three in Double A, striking out 171 batters (31.1 percent) but walking 77 (14 percent), finishing third in all of the minors in both categories — the only pitcher to appear in the top 10 in both categories. It’s a huge fastball that’s been up to 98, although it was 93-95 last year, coming from a low slot with big extension, so hitters hate it. He’s messed around with several other pitches, including a slider/cutter thing (they call it a slider, Statcast tagged it as a cutter), a sinker, a changeup that’s functional, and a curveball with a surprisingly low spin rate but huge 12/6 break. None of them are plus, and he mixes them all, even throwing the breaking stuff to lefties, without running into much trouble except that of his own making. I don’t even see why he’s so wild — the delivery is fine, I think he’s getting to a consistent enough release point, maybe it’s too many types of pitches? — but at some point the evidence wins out. You can’t be a big-league starter walking one of every seven hitters; only one major-league starter qualified for the ERA title last year and walked even 10 percent of hitters, let alone 14 percent. Put him in the bullpen, get him to stick to three pitches, and let ‘er rip.

15. Ryan Forcucci, RHP

Height: 6-3 | Weight: 205 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22

Forcucci had some of the best pitch metrics of any pitcher in the 2024 draft class, but his elbow went in March and he had Tommy John shortly before the draft. The Astros took him in the third round, hoping to get him back on a mound in mid-2025, with significant upside if his stuff returns intact and he can hold up in a starter role. He was up to 97 with a ton of life, and had a high spin rate on a future-plus slider. His career high in innings pitched in a season is 53 2/3, so we have no evidence (either way) to say if he can handle working as a starter. The stuff would play in any role.

16. Cole Hertzler, RHP

Height: 6-4 | Weight: 235 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 22

The Astros’ fifth-round pick in 2024, Hertzler started out as a two-way player in college but ended up strictly a pitcher, which seems like a good choice. He’s 92-94, touching 97, and he has four pitches, getting some significant improvement on both breaking balls during his draft year. His arm action is great for a starter, although he cuts himself off a little on landing, limiting his ability to work to his glove side. He’s got the arsenal, he throws strikes, his delivery works, so he’s just about everything you’d want in a back-end starter.

17. Zach Cole, OF

Height: 6-2 | Weight: 190 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 24

What’s cooler than being cool? Zach Cole! All right, all right. He hit .214/.302/.408 in Double A last year, a huge disappointment off his 19-homer campaign in 2023, which was his first full pro season after the Astros took him in the 10th round in 2022. The Ball State product also wasn’t healthy most of last year, with a hamstring strain that kept him out until mid-May, and then later an elbow injury that limited him to DH duty in the last month-plus. He did slug .486 against righties, and he’s a plus runner with a plus arm, so there’s fourth/platoon outfielder upside here if he can make a little more contact.

18. James Hicks, RHP

Height: 6-2 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 24

Hicks throws everything at hitters, with at least six distinct pitch types, filling up the strike zone but running into trouble in Double A because he doesn’t have a real out-pitch. He has a loose arm action where it looks like he’s just flinging the ball at the plate, but somehow walks just 6.3 percent of batters and until he reached Double A he induced a lot of weak contact. At that top level, he had some terrible luck on balls in play, allowing a .380 BABIP, but also created some of his own bad luck by leaving too many four-seamers and sliders in the upper half of the zone. If he threw harder than 90-93, I’d be more optimistic; the control and variety of weapons give him a fifth starter/swingman ceiling if he can work more down and to the edges.

19. Jackson Nezuh, RHP

Height: 6-1 | Weight: 190 | Bats: R | Throws: R | Age: 23

Nezuh has a four-pitch mix highlighted by a string-puller of a changeup, but lefties teed off on him last year because he threw way too many breaking balls to them, and overall he tends to pitch up against hitters on both sides of the plate. He’s 90-93 with a solid-average curveball that’s slow but has good shape, a cutter that serves the function of a slider in his arsenal, and that plus changeup, working with average control and a simple delivery. His slot is three-quarters or slightly higher and he doesn’t drive the ball down that well to work to the bottom of the zone or below it, so he gives up a lot of air outs and might end up homer-prone. He should use the changeup more to lefties, for one thing, and see where it goes in High A this year.

20. Alonzo Tredwell, RHP

Height: 6-8 | Weight: 245 | Bats: L | Throws: R | Age: 23

The oft-injured Tredwell was on a nice run in June and July, allowing just eight runs (five earned) in 23 innings with 29 strikeouts and 12 walks in a seven-start stretch that ended with him hitting the IL with a shoulder strain. Houston’s second-round pick in 2023, Tredwell had Tommy John surgery in high school and missed a chunk of his draft year with a back injury, so he really has no history of staying healthy. He does have great extension from his 6-foot-8 frame and further deception from a high slot, showing a 55 slider and curveball and last year boasting a much-improved changeup. He was 90-92, down from where he was at UCLA, and that probably goes hand-in-hand with the shoulder issue. He’s a longshot, just one whose upside makes him worth tracking in case he shows up healthy this spring … otherwise, we’ll be mourning Alonzo.


2025 impact

Dezenzo and Whitcomb should get significant time in the majors this year, even if it’s only in backup roles. Blubaugh is in the queue of arms to make a few starts when there’s an inevitable injury, especially with several Astros pitchers trying to come back from surgeries.

The fallen

The Astros didn’t have a first- or second-round pick in 2021 due to the sign-stealing scandal, so their first pick was Las Vegas-area high school outfielder Tyler Whitaker, who has never hit at all in the minors. He started 2024 in Asheville, which as I’ve mentioned is a great place to hit, and posted a .205/.316/.311 line in two months before an injury ended his season.

Sleeper

Janek is by far the most likely guy after Smith to end up on the top 100 a year from now — he’s a catcher, he has power, he can defend, it’s a low bar back there.


Additional top prospect coverage

(Top photo of Smith: Danny Parker / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)

What did you think of this story?

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MEH

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SOLID

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Keith Law is a senior baseball writer for The Athletic. He has covered the sport since 2006 and prior to that was a special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays. He's the author of "Smart Baseball" (2017) and "The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves" (2020), both from William Morrow. He's on Bluesky at @keithlaw.bsky.social. Follow Keith on Twitter @keithlaw

 
 
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19 hours ago, n64ra said:

 

Dana Brown implies Astros-Alex Bregman reunion unlikely

 

"Lost Tucker?" You traded him, dumbass!

tbf the text doesn't quite line up to the headline - just that the Astros' original offer still stands but they haven't heard back or have reached out. 

IMHO Bregman clearly isn't getting what he wants from other teams but doesn't want to swallow his pride and take the Astros offer. 

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If Bregman actually takes that reported offer from the Cubs, I can only conclude that someone in the Astros clubhouse has been responsible for tying his shoes every day because he’s clearly not intelligent enough to do that himself.

Turning down a guaranteed $50 million extra and trying to make that up by opting out will likely never happen. He’s a good player who has already begun his decline and if MLB doesn’t go back to the 2019 baseballs, he will never get the $200 million he wants.

Did he really get that upset because his annual comp was going to decrease by $2 million?

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