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Posted
14 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Never left. Just got Dusty’s in 23 and lost a coin flip series in 24 for first time during the dynasty run. 
we gonna be good and you are going to see the pathway develop for competition through 29 or however long Yordan is signed for. 

Coin flip series? You really think the Astros were a playoff contending team in 2024?

Posted
9 minutes ago, mycox said:

Coin flip series? You really think the Astros were a playoff contending team in 2024?

The answer to the latter can be no but not change the fact that a single 3 game series is a terrible way for consistently getting right who a better team is 

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Posted
47 minutes ago, mycox said:

Coin flip series? You really think the Astros were a playoff contending team in 2024?

Yes, most teams that make the playoffs are playoff contending.

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Posted
52 minutes ago, mycox said:

Coin flip series? You really think the Astros were a playoff contending team in 2024?

Yeah man.  Anyone who gets in can win it.  Rangers in 23. Braves in 21. Nationals in 19.  Dbacks in the world series. It might not be completely random in which 2 playoff teams win a best of 3, 5 or 7, but it's really damn close. If you get in it you can absolutely win it. 

Posted
1 hour ago, WBT said:

Yes, most teams that make the playoffs are playoff contending.

I'll give you that, but the Astros were just a slightly above average team playing in a shitty division.

Posted
1 hour ago, mycox said:

I'll give you that, but the Astros were just a slightly above average team playing in a shitty division.

I mean- from May 8 on last year which is 75% of the season the Astros had the best record in the AL and the second best record in all of baseball. 
rhe Astros were a horrific team for 6 weeks as they had Abreu and a couple starters actively sabotage the start- those guys cleaned up their acts and pitched well and they got rid of Abreu and played like what they were, one of the top 5 teams in baseball for the rest of the year. That bad start had them playing a stupid best of 3 series where they lost to the modern day Sandy Kofax by a run and then lost a game by a run where they had 4 or 5 smoked balls that landed 3 inches foul or were 110 mph piss rods hit right at someone. 
to say that team was barely above average does a disservice to them imo. To assign some sort of platonic viewpoint on a best 2 out of 3 series is really dumb. We got swept by last place teams every single year during our dynastic run. It’s baseball. Best 2 out of 3 says nothing about the quality of a team. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean- from May 8 on last year which is 75% of the season the Astros had the best record in the AL and the second best record in all of baseball. 
rhe Astros were a horrific team for 6 weeks as they had Abreu  

 

espada and staff did a great job 

imo, they ran out of gas vs the tigers 

Posted
27 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Marc Lamont Hill Wtf GIF by Identity

Maybe you are new here, but every now and again I engage in a wee bit of hyperbole.  

I guess I could have just said the unanimous Cy Young winner and by far best pitcher in baseball last year. 

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

image.gif.8adb25bad3bbecd2d3ca25333e8d2d31.gif

Dude 30 out of 30 votes is really good. Even. Better than the Blake Snell Cy young the year before. 
fuck- I see I typed baseball when I meant to say league. I don’t pay attention to a league the astros don’t play in. I always mess up some mundane detail. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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Posted
22 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Dude 30 out of 30 votes is really good. Even. Better than the Blake Snell Cy young the year before. 
fuck- I see I typed baseball when I meant to say league. I don’t pay attention to a league the astros don’t play in. I always mess up some mundane detail. 

Look, the important thing here is that the face that dude makes in that gif is objectively hilarious. 

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Posted
Altuve's LF debut today.  I think he'll be a better hitter this year in the OF and end the year with 2400+ hits.
I will go over 2400...as long as no injury

So i will take that +
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Posted

Altuve played 6 innings and i dont think he was involved in one play in the field lol

I mean that would be ideal in real game, but yeah probably needs to get some shit hit to him

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Posted
2 hours ago, Scraps said:

Altuve played 6 innings and i dont think he was involved in one play in the field lol

I mean that would be ideal in real game, but yeah probably needs to get some shit hit to him
 

Which is, you know, why him being in Lf won’t be that big a problem. 

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Posted

Best realistic case scenario for Astros by WAR

C-6. Does plays like a 5 win all star and Caratini is good again for 1 WAR
1B- 3 WAR. He keeps doing what hes been doing
2B- 3 War- strict platoon gets to league average offense with gold glove caliber defense as every day 
SS- 4 war- Peña gets back his defensive groove when he was a GG w average offense
3B- 4- Paredes hits 35 or 40 HR’s as a dead pull hitter at MMP and continues to walk 
LF- 4 war. Altuve catches balls well and is 30 or 40% better than league average at plate
CF- 4 war. Chas is average against RHP and plays average defense/Jake is GG caliber on defense and mashes LHP
RF- 2 mashes lefties and Gammel or someone else is above average against RHP 
DH- 6- stays healthy all year and does Yordan things. 

Total- 36 War. On the way to winning 105 games as everything plays out well and the Astros are the best team in the league against LHP and top 5 or 7 against RHP as platoons work well for them, Altuve is fine in LF, Yainer becomes a star and Paredesoverlay chart becomes HR city at the ice box.

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Best realistic case scenario for Astros by WAR

C-6. Does plays like a 5 win all star and Caratini is good again for 1 WAR
1B- 3 WAR. He keeps doing what hes been doing
2B- 3 War- strict platoon gets to league average offense with gold glove caliber defense as every day 
SS- 4 war- Peña gets back his defensive groove when he was a GG w average offense
3B- 4- Paredes hits 35 or 40 HR’s as a dead pull hitter at MMP and continues to walk 
LF- 4 war. Altuve catches balls well and is 30 or 40% better than league average at plate
CF- 4 war. Chas is average against RHP and plays average defense/Jake is GG caliber on defense and mashes LHP
RF- 2 mashes lefties and Gammel or someone else is above average against RHP 
DH- 6- stays healthy all year and does Yordan things. 

Total- 36 War. On the way to winning 105 games as everything plays out well and the Astros are the best team in the league against LHP and top 5 or 7 against RHP as platoons work well for them, Altuve is fine in LF, Yainer becomes a star and Paredesoverlay chart becomes HR city at the ice box.

Spit Take GIF

Posted
14 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Spit Take GIF

Just waiting for someone to lay out how we are going to finish 80-82 as a counterpoint. 
To be clear this isn’t a prediction of what will happen this is sort of best realistic case scenario. I’d expect 4 or 5 of these to more or less play out and 4 or 5 to be worse. 

Posted

Here’s the counterpoint:

1. Diaz doesn’t regain his fly ball stroke, doesn’t hit for power and is a league average catcher. 
2. Walker slightly regresses.

3. Guillorme has only played more than 100 games in 1 season. With him playing against right-handed starters, he wilts later in the season and doesn’t hit for league average against righties.

4. Peña doesn’t improve on offense and throws 20 balls into the dugout behind 1b.

5. Instead of HRs, Paredes mashes a ton of hard hit singles into the LF wall.

6. Altuve regresses to his early years with respect to plate discipline and hits for 300 with no power.

7. Chas sucks and becomes unplayable. Meyers starts for over 100 games. Melton shows he’s not the answer in AAA.

8. Yordan plays less than 100 games due to injury.

9. Framber wilts under the pressure of pitching in a contract year and we get no relief from any of the pitchers rehabbing from TJ.

10. We get inconsistent Hader.

I really think the outcome is in between our 2 posts and the Astros win 90 games and the West.

 

 

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Posted

You forgot point #11 - Our pets’ heads fall off

Geez, talk about a Debbie Downer

But, yeah, I agree that about 90 wins will do it, McCullers and Garcia win 10 games between them, and the back end of Whitley in the 7th, Abreu in the 8th, and Hader in the 9th will be nails all year.

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Posted

Best case scenario on the mound

1) health! Garcia and LMJ make it to the starting mound sometime end of April or beginning of May and pitch somewhere around 100 innings each. Javier comes back in July or August and pitches 1-3 innings per outing 2 times a week.

Framber- dominant Ace level- all star and receives Cy Young Votes

Brown- consistently is the guy he was the last 4 months of last year- All Star and recievers Cy Young Votes 

Arrighetti- has another healthy year that’s more dominant starts than bad- wins 15 games with a couple clunkers mixed in.

Blanco- solid MOr guy that answers the bell every start- pitches to a 3.5 era and provides lots of value 

Wesneski or however you spell his name- sees different pitch mix happen/ gives up fewer HR and pitches like a MOR guy

Blubaugh- gets his feet wet with flashes of good and bad. Finds his way into bullpen when all starters are healthy.

whitley- becomes dominant 7th inning guy 

Abreu/ stays healthy- is guy he’s always been which is all star level 

Hader/ stops giving up so many Hr- is the guy he normally is 

rest of the bullpen- pieces it together and doesn’t actively sabotage us.

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Posted
1 hour ago, hornmpa96 said:

Here’s the counterpoint:

1. Diaz doesn’t regain his fly ball stroke, doesn’t hit for power and is a league average catcher. 
2. Walker slightly regresses.

3. Guillorme has only played more than 100 games in 1 season. With him playing against right-handed starters, he wilts later in the season and doesn’t hit for league average against righties.

4. Peña doesn’t improve on offense and throws 20 balls into the dugout behind 1b.

5. Instead of HRs, Paredes mashes a ton of hard hit singles into the LF wall.

6. Altuve regresses to his early years with respect to plate discipline and hits for 300 with no power.

7. Chas sucks and becomes unplayable. Meyers starts for over 100 games. Melton shows he’s not the answer in AAA.

8. Yordan plays less than 100 games due to injury.

9. Framber wilts under the pressure of pitching in a contract year and we get no relief from any of the pitchers rehabbing from TJ.

10. We get inconsistent Hader.

I really think the outcome is in between our 2 posts and the Astros win 90 games and the West.

 

 

I didn’t post any singular event that was particularly unlikely in my scenario. Neither did you!  Going to be an interesting year. If we meet in the middle on all our outcomes yeah- it’s probably 90 wins. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I didn’t post any singular event that was particularly unlikely in my scenario. Neither did you!  Going to be an interesting year. If we meet in the middle on all our outcomes yeah- it’s probably 90 wins. 

The most likely outcome is obviously somewhere in between these scenarios and something like 85-90 wins. There are probably 4 or 5 AL teams that should also be in that range. 

Posted
14 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

The most likely outcome is obviously somewhere in between these scenarios and something like 85-90 wins. There are probably 4 or 5 AL teams that should also be in that range. 

I think health is so important. It’s been ignored as this Astros team has been ~90 win team the last couple years just how snakebit we have been from a health perspective. Fuck gamblers fallacy- we gonna be healthy now because we haven’t been the last two years. Science! 

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Posted
23 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think health is so important. It’s been ignored as this Astros team has been ~90 win team the last couple years just how snakebit we have been from a health perspective. Fuck gamblers fallacy- we gonna be healthy now because we haven’t been the last two years. Science! 

I’m going to try to apply this logic with my insurance company - “sure my wife rear-ended someone each of the last two years, so you should drop my 2025 rates because because there’s no way it’ll happen again.”

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