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24/25 Astros Offseason thread


Wulaw Horn

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Alex Bregman Reportedly Has Six-Year Offer From Club Other Than Astros

some context why Bregman may not come back to Houston and why he's struggling to find a team:

Quote

The $156MM offer is close-ish to that but Heyman and Nightengale both relay that Bregman viewed that as a paycut. That offer would come with an average annual value of $26MM. Bregman signed an extension with the Astros back in March of 2019, a five-year, $100MM pact. That was only a $20MM AAV but it was backloaded. Bregman got a $10MM signing bonus and then had a salary of $11MM in the first three years of that deal, followed by salaries of $28.5MM in the last two. Though the recent offer from Houston would have come with an AAV bump compared that entire contract, it appears the immediate downgrade in salary wasn’t satisfactory.

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Since he rejected a qualifying offer, any club apart from Houston that signs him would be subject to draft pick forfeiture. As a tax payor, the Cubs would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks as well as $1MM from next year’s international bonus pool space. The Jays and Red Sox, who didn’t pay the tax and aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, would only forfeit $500K of pool space and their second-highest pick. The Jays already surrendered a pick to sign Anthony Santander, so they would actually surrender their third-highest pick if they also signed Bregman. The Tigers, as a revenue-sharing recipient, would give up their third-best pick. Houston stands to receive compensation if Bregman signs elsewhere, though since they paid the tax last year, they would only receive a pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft. Re-signing Bregman would take that potential compensation away.

 

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3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Alex Bregman Reportedly Has Six-Year Offer From Club Other Than Astros

Uh huh, and Ewers had a $5 million, no wait, $6 million, actually, $8 million NIL offer to transfer from a team other than Texas

Who was the source, Boras? 

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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Uh huh, and Ewers had a $5 million, no wait, $6 million, actually, $8 million NIL offer to transfer from a team other than Texas

Who was the source, Boras? 

I thought that first but it's a team he's not high on and has a one year opt out - similar to what Correa settled for in Minnesota. Doubtful this leak puts any pressure on any suitors. This is allegedly the Blue Jays.

Edited by The Dog
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Even if they don't sign Bregman, at least they are keeping his contract floor value high for whoever does sign him. I think every team he has been associated with has been an AL opponent like the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Tigers. Make someone else overpay so much that they regret that contract in a couple years and it will be worth it.  I just saw the Jays contract with Santander and WOW, 5 years $92.5 million, 61.75m deferred, plus some options that can add a 6th year for 15m. Ooooof, but mission accomplished. Good to see the Astros didn't overpay for him. 

If you need something to get excited about, the Astros have this dude under control for 3 more years, and he's only 25:

 

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7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I thought that first but it's a team he's not high on and has a one year opt out - similar to what Correa settled for in Minnesota. Doubtful this leak puts any pressure on any suitors. This is allegedly the Blue Jays.

I think the Blue Jays are under some pressure right now because they have Vlad and Bichette's contracts ending after this year. They need to re-sign both of them and probably need to make a significant competitive leap this year to entice them to extend. Their payroll is already at ~240 million this year (the most in team history), so adding another 30m for Bregman may be tough, but I would imagine they are pushing for some deferment of money like they did with Santander. Figure in the excessive taxes of living in Toronto vs most other cities, and they have to overpay quite a bit to make a contract of similar value to what the Astros offered Bregman.

Also, isn't Bregman's wife from Houston?  I wonder how much she figures into this decision. 

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28 minutes ago, The Dog said:

some context why Bregman may not come back to Houston and why he's struggling to find a team:

Quote

I’ve been presuming that he’s got an offer better than what the Astros are offering but that it’s inferior in other ways (deferments, bad team,etc.)

Also, really glad not to be a Blue Jays fan because they look to be in an even worse spot.  

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44 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Alex Bregman Reportedly Has Six-Year Offer From Club Other Than Astros

some context why Bregman may not come back to Houston and why he's struggling to find a team:

 

That second quote = all the more reason for the Astros not to budge on their offer…. any why boras really fucked this up waiting so long.

no one wants to lose a pick.. and teams they have already signed one QO guy for damn sure don’t want to lose another 

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40 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Also, isn't Bregman's wife from Houston?  I wonder how much she figures into this decision. 

Yeah I think she went to high school in Katy iirc. I've actually thought a bit about this and agree with you, it seems to me that she would factor in heavily to this decision.

I will never ever come close to enjoying the wealth that Alex Bregman, his wife, or even his grandkids have decades from now. According to spotrac, he has earned $107,873,010 in his career thus far and reportedly has an offer for another $156 MILLION DOLLARS from Jim Crane and the Astros organization. I'm not exactly one to side with billionaires and capitalists in general, so I completely understand Bregman's position wrt PAY ME MY BAG YOU'RE FILTHY RICH JIM CRANE but at some point you have to ask yourself what you are playing for and how much is enough etc. Does it really affect his life and his ability to live a lavish lifestyle if he's earning $20 million per year vs $26 million? Bregman is adored in Houston for what he's meant to the WS teams, his leadership in the clubhouse, his defense, and his brash attitude that rubs other fans the wrong way but the way he's handled this is wearing fans out. If it's really just about the money now, move the fuck on. 

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44 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

no one wants to lose a pick.. and teams they have already signed one QO guy for damn sure don’t want to lose another 

I actually think it’s better to have multiple FA signings in the same offseason if it means you aren’t on the market in subsequent seasons, at least in terms of draft and international budget penalties.  

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1 hour ago, The Dog said:

I thought that first but it's a team he's not high on and has a one year opt out - similar to what Correa settled for in Minnesota. Doubtful this leak puts any pressure on any suitors. This is allegedly the Blue Jays.

Have fun with those Canadian taxes there Bregs.

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35 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

Yeah I think she went to high school in Katy iirc. I've actually thought a bit about this and agree with you, it seems to me that she would factor in heavily to this decision.

 

They have a kid, her family is here, his family is just nearby in NM.  Seems a no brainer she would probably want to stay here

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24 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Have fun with those Canadian taxes there Bregs.

Quick google search:

If you make $26,000,000 a year living in the region of Ontario, Canada, you will be taxed $13,885,092. That means that your net pay will be $12,114,908 per year.

If you make $26,000,000 a year living in Texas, you will be taxed $10,196,478. That means that your net pay will be $15,803,523 per year.

So if the final offers are similar to what we've been seeing, he'd pocket an extra ~$3.7 million/year with the Astros. If it's just about the bag and securing his grandchildren's obscene wealth, he should sign with Houston (even for marginally less contract salary). If it's just about ego like many pro athletes and getting "paid" more than peers, then double F' you get out of here.

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24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They have a kid, her family is here, his family is just nearby in NM.  Seems a no brainer she would probably want to stay here

I don’t want to sound like an asshole, but how much of the financial decisions do you guys think she makes in that household?

1.) Dad was in oil business and she moved a bunch as a kid which means…

2.) Mom didn’t work and dad brought in all $

3.) She went to A&M and we know that most blondes there are getting that MRS or teaching degree

4.) Quotes from both of them:

"I love Alex's heart and how he'd give the shirt off his back to anyone," Reagan told The Knot in 2021. "He makes everyone feel included and happy — that's admirable and hard to find."

Alex feels the same way about his wife, telling the outlet, "She cares: she's willing to go above and beyond for the people she loves and is loyal. She's hardworking, smart and she literally does everything for me. She makes life better. Whenever I'm around her, she makes me happy."


Her quotes translated: he buys me lots shit and also buys his friends and family stuff.

His quote translated: She doesn’t give me shit and goes with the flow. And she does the stuff in bed that I like.


She has no say in the finances unless you count picking out household decor, remodeling shit, and what color her Lexus SUV is.

Edited by Dnaguy
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Quick google search:
If you make $26,000,000 a year living in the region of Ontario, Canada, you will be taxed $13,885,092. That means that your net pay will be $12,114,908 per year.
If you make $26,000,000 a year living in Texas, you will be taxed $10,196,478. That means that your net pay will be $15,803,523 per year.
So if the final offers are similar to what we've been seeing, he'd pocket an extra ~$3.7 million/year with the Astros. If it's just about the bag and securing his grandchildren's obscene wealth, he should sign with Houston (even for marginally less contract salary). If it's just about ego like many pro athletes and getting "paid" more than peers, then double F' you get out of here.

there is some exception for american wage earners in canada. they don’t pay what canadians do in income tax.
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2019 Bregman
R 122
2B 37
HR 41
RBI 112
OPS 1.015
WAR 8.9

2024 Bregman
R 79
2B 30
HR 26
RBI 75
OPS .768
WAR 4.1

in 2019 bregman walked 119 times and K’d 83 times in 690 PA.

in 2024 bregman walked 44 times and K’d 86 times in 634 PA.

walked more than the struck out from 2018-2023 and then all of a sudden K’d TWICE as much as he walked last season. had never had a sub-.350 OBP season until 2024 (.315).

so maybe a pay cut is in order there, alex.

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14 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Quick google search:

If you make $26,000,000 a year living in the region of Ontario, Canada, you will be taxed $13,885,092. That means that your net pay will be $12,114,908 per year.

If you make $26,000,000 a year living in Texas, you will be taxed $10,196,478. That means that your net pay will be $15,803,523 per year.

So if the final offers are similar to what we've been seeing, he'd pocket an extra ~$3.7 million/year with the Astros. If it's just about the bag and securing his grandchildren's obscene wealth, he should sign with Houston (even for marginally less contract salary). If it's just about ego like many pro athletes and getting "paid" more than peers, then double F' you get out of here.

It's actually based on where the games are played.  So the Texas tax rate is only for the home games and those against the Rangers.  He'll still probably make more money as an Astro though.

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14 minutes ago, patrickdrinksbeer said:

2019 Bregman
R 122
2B 37
HR 41
RBI 112
OPS 1.015
WAR 8.9

2024 Bregman
R 79
2B 30
HR 26
RBI 75
OPS .768
WAR 4.1

in 2019 bregman walked 119 times and K’d 83 times in 690 PA.

in 2024 bregman walked 44 times and K’d 86 times in 634 PA.

walked more than the struck out from 2018-2023 and then all of a sudden K’d TWICE as much as he walked last season. had never had a sub-.350 OBP season until 2024 (.315).

so maybe a pay cut is in order there, alex.

THe one thing that's comforting is that his K's didn't jump so his bat to ball is pretty similar but his walks went into free fall. I think it's a combo of him not being as feared and Yordan or Tucker being behind him so pitchers get after him.  

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I mean, he is a baseball player, but I find it really hard to believe that Bregman is so dumb that he would view a $26M AAV as a "pay cut" since he made $28.5M in each of the past two years.  He knows that those are prime year rates and that he is just barely still in the window of his prime years.  

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14 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

I mean, he is a baseball player, but I find it really hard to believe that Bregman is so dumb that he would view a $26M AAV as a "pay cut" since he made $28.5M in each of the past two years.  He knows that those are prime year rates and that he is just barely still in the window of his prime years.  

Boras promised him X.

No one has gotten to X.

Boras tells him daily to stay the course and Bregman is listening to him

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

THe one thing that's comforting is that his K's didn't jump so his bat to ball is pretty similar but his walks went into free fall. I think it's a combo of him not being as feared and Yordan or Tucker being behind him so pitchers get after him.  

I think it's 95% that between age and the dejuiced  ball he can't hit it out nearly as often.

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2 minutes ago, WBT said:

I think it's 95% that between age and the dejuiced  ball he can't hit it out nearly as often.

I meant the lack of walks.  But yeah, he's basically hitting in front of guys that they fear more than him (that's some of the reason) so he's not going to walk as they go right after him. 

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4 minutes ago, texashorne said:

If you had to bet, who do you think will have a more productive season in 2025? Paredes or Bregman? 

I would bet 2025 Bregman has a higher OPS and WRC+ than Paredes, but I think they swap in 2026 and Paredes takes the lead by a lot in 2027 and beyond. 

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5 hours ago, The Dog said:

The $156MM offer is close-ish to that but Heyman and Nightengale both relay that Bregman viewed that as a paycut. That offer would come with an average annual value of $26MM. Bregman signed an extension with the Astros back in March of 2019, a five-year, $100MM pact. That was only a $20MM AAV but it was backloaded. Bregman got a $10MM signing bonus and then had a salary of $11MM in the first three years of that deal, followed by salaries of $28.5MM in the last two. Though the recent offer from Houston would have come with an AAV bump compared that entire contract, it appears the immediate downgrade in salary wasn’t satisfactory.

Maybe it's because I have a math degree, but I wouldn't consider 5-year $100M -> 6-year $156 as a downgrade in salary. 

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5 minutes ago, n64ra said:

Maybe it's because I have a math degree, but I wouldn't consider 5-year $100M -> 6-year $156 as a downgrade in salary. 

it's not - it's the perceived downgrade going from a backloaded deal where he made more last year than the new deal would pay him this year.

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3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

it's not - it's the perceived downgrade going from a backloaded deal where he made more last year than the new deal would pay him this year.

I read that part, and I don't perceive it as a downgrade either. 

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