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The Dallas Stars 2024-2025 Season Thread: Win Now, Talk Later

Longhorn_Fan68

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C-Man

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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5815527/2024/10/04/dallas-stars-2024-25-season-preview/

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The Dallas Stars were a model darling last season, entering the year with the second-best odds of winning it all.

They came very close reaching the final four, but came up short. That devastation often comes for the best of the best every season.

Now it’s time to pick up the pieces and try again.

That’s the advantage of being an annual Stanley Cup contender — it’s not a one-and-done, you get a few shots to keep at it. Until it works.

This season, the Stars enter with the exact same forecast they had a year ago. Maybe this time the story will end with victory.

The projection

A 105-point season and a one-in-10 shot at winning the Stanley Cup as a playoff lock — the expectations have not changed for Dallas, which will likely once again be one of the league’s best teams.

Last year, the Stars won the West with 113 points, one point off the league lead. They were elite and that will likely be the case again this season. Dallas’ odds of earning 100 points or more sit at 77 percent, roughly the same odds as becoming a top 10 team. The Stars are a Presidents’ Trophy threat and will likely be the team to beat in the Central.

What may be disappointing to some is that expectations for the Stars aren’t higher, a result of unfortunate decisions regarding their blue line during the offseason.

Maybe it won’t matter. Maybe the Stars make an improvement at the deadline that makes it a moot point.

For now, it’s the reason the Stars aren’t contending for the throne as the league’s best team going into the season. Considering the best team is the team that defeated them in the conference finals last spring, the Stars have some work to do to reach the league’s apex.

The big question

Can Dallas contend with its defense corps as currently constructed?

All things being equal, the Stars probably would’ve preferred that Joe Pavelski stuck around a bit longer. His days as the best fit alongside Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz appeared to be over; that’s Wyatt Johnston’s spot now. Still, it’s tough to imagine that, even at 40 years old, Pavelski wouldn’t have found a way to continue on as an effective middle-sixer for another season or two.

The upside of his retirement: It gave GM Jim Nill another $3.5 million in space to work with, a relevant amount of money for a team that has often had to get creative with its cap management. Buying out veteran defenseman Ryan Suter cleared about $2.8 million more in cap savings for the 2024-25 season. The point of creating that space seemed clear — Dallas needed to address the back half of its defensive group; everything after Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell, really.

Chris Tanev turned out to be every bit of the player Dallas acquired earlier in the season, eating tough minutes and limiting top offensive players, but he was headed for Toronto. Suter still seemed to be third-pair capable, but his pre-buyout cap hit ($3.6 million) nuked whatever value he’d bring to the lineup. Jani Hakanpää was a pending UFA and didn’t play a game after March 16 knee surgery. Nils Lundqvist remains in the fold, even though Pete DeBoer found it more amenable to play postseason games a defenseman short than to risk giving him a regular shift. Dealing with all that isn’t exactly light work.

Nill’s chosen method was to bring in Matt Dumba (two years, $3.75 million AAV) and Ilya Lyubushkin (three years, $3.250 million), two physical, veteran right shots who the model, to be blunt, does not believe in; neither player’s projection is remotely in line with their spot in Dallas’ lineup, and combined, they’re a major drag on the Stars’ overall projection.

There are real mitigating factors, though; their presence fixes what had been a longstanding righty-lefty imbalance on Dallas’ blue line. Heiskanen is a left shot who’d been playing on his off side. His performance didn’t suffer, and it allowed him to crush serious minutes alongside the left-handed Harley last season; with them on the ice together at five-on-five, the Stars outscored opponents 39-23 and controlled more than 62 percent of the expected goal share. That’s a nice option to have in your back pocket, should the new guys not work out. Zooming out, though, Harley seems ready for true stardom — and certainly seems capable of carrying his own pair. It’s hard to argue that Dallas won’t be better off if that’s the case, with at least one franchise-caliber defenseman on the ice for 75 percent of every game.

The question is whether Dumba, who’s on track to partner with Heiskanen, and Lyubushkin, who’s on track to partner with Harley, are the right guys for the job. If Dumba, at 30, is still a top-four defenseman on his own accord, he hasn’t shown it for two seasons. With Arizona at the start of 2022-23, he played second-pair minutes and earned 48 percent of the expected goals and 44 percent of the actual goals. Things didn’t get better for him in Tampa Bay. His puck-moving work, according to Corey Sznjader’s tracking date, has also declined. What Dallas is banking on — and all told, it’s an understandable bet — is that Dumba will work as a pure complement to Heiskanen. He can defend the blue line and leave the rest to the Norris Trophy candidate. That’s how it’d work in the Stars’ world, at least.

Lyubushkin’s projections, meanwhile, are certainly dragged down by the way he played in consecutive seasons with Buffalo and Arizona. On bad teams, he was a bad player. With Toronto last season, though — certainly a playoff-caliber group — he looked plenty capable, with an above-average goal share (55 percent) and expected goal share (52 percent) relative to his teammates. Most of the credit — on the model side of things — went to the Leafs’ other players, whom Lyubushkin shared the ice with plenty. But he also clearly wasn’t the massive drag he’s being projected to be. It’s easy to imagine the Stars seeing a fit alongside Harley that will work much better than what’s forecasted here. It’s also not a guarantee.

The wild card

Can Jake Oettinger bounce back?

In his first two NHL seasons, Oettinger set the bar high for himself. He showed he could be a high-end, true No. 1, making the Stars one of the league’s most complete teams.

Last year, the results didn’t quite stack up to the reputation he built for himself in the early goings of his NHL career. With a .905 save percentage and just 1.5 goals saved above expected, Oettinger was only slightly above league average. He gave his team a chance to win with a quality start in 28 outings but struggled behind his workload in another 26 appearances.

After a shaky Game 1 against the Vegas Golden Knights in the playoffs, Oettinger started to bring his level up. He stood tall against Vegas and helped the Stars outlast the high-octane Colorado Avalanche. His postseason was pretty promising until Dallas met the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference final.

Dallas projects to be one of the best offensive and defensive teams in the league. And some recent champs have shown that a team with that much strength in front of the crease can get by without elite goaltending. But more reliability in net would go a long way in helping the team maximize their chances this season. Dallas’ superpower as a contender is having the fewest weak points — an elite Oettinger raises the team’s ceiling significantly.

With an organizational effort to manage his practice workload better, Oettinger looks poised for a rebound. He has proven he has the upside to be a true No. 1 — he just has to get back on track.

The strengths

Any talk regarding Dallas’ strengths always starts with the top line.

From 2020 to 2023, few lines consistently dominated at five-on-five the way Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski did, annually earning 60 percent of the goals and expected goals. They were Dallas’ engine.

Some of that shine wore off last season as Pavelski’s game started to show noticeable decline. The trio only earned 57 percent of the expected goals and 56 percent of the actual goals. Still great, but they packed a noticeably less offensive punch. Last year, the top line generated just 2.8 expected goals per 60, down from just over 3.3 in the two years prior. They struggled even more in the playoffs.

Enter Wyatt Johnston.

The 21-year-old took his game to another level last season, and the implications of his new home on the top line are immense. He’s an easy breakout pick after what he was able to do in the playoffs last season, and if his work with the top duo last year is any indication, we’re in for a real treat. In a 111-minute audition last year, they looked unbelievably good together, earning 82 percent of the expected goals and outscoring opponents 9-1. This line is going to be a problem.

That could mean a return to scoring form for both Robertson and Hintz, both of whom saw their scoring paces drop by 20 last season. A jump for Johnston from last season’s 65 points should also be in the cards, and there’s a real chance the Stars have three point-per-game weapons this season. That all three carry a strong defensive conscience makes the trio even more dangerous.

Robertson’s shiny plus-5 Defensive Rating may come as a small shock, given it’s one of the highest marks in the league. His reputation in that regard isn’t in line, but perhaps it should carry more weight given a stingy Dallas team always gives up much less with Robertson on the ice. Last year, that was 0.31 fewer expected goals against per 60, a mark that tied Sam Reinhart and William Karlsson at the top of the league among players who played tougher minutes. Playing with a strong two-way center like Hintz probably helps, but Robertson seems to have a responsible sensibility in his own right.

On most teams, stacking the deck up top could offer diminishing returns for the other lines. Most teams opt for a semblance of balance, but that’s usually out of necessity. Most teams simply don’t have as many good forwards as the Stars do.

That’s primarily a product of strong winger depth highlighted by Jamie Benn, Mason Marchment and Logan Stankoven in the middle six.

Benn has experienced a renaissance over the last two seasons, scoring above two points per 60 in each. He’s transitioned well as a support player and is a major asset to the team — there aren’t many players currently slotted on a third line better than Benn. Marchment experienced some regression in his first year with Dallas but got right back on track in his second season. Stankoven is the most tantalizing, a true X-factor who has serious potential to have a second-year breakout similar in scope to the one Johnston had last season.

It’s easy to be impressed by Stankoven’s 14 points in 24 games, but more notable is how much Dallas dominated with him on the ice. The Stars earned 63 percent of the expected and actual goals with Stankoven, and while it’s unlikely he keeps that up, it’s a strong signal of what he can bring to the table. He already looks top-six caliber and will have an opportunity to shine bright with any of the top three lines.

Even the fourth-line wingers look solid relative to the field, helping give Dallas some of the best winger depth in the league. Combined, the team’s wingers have a plus-27 Net Rating, second to only the Florida Panthers.

On the blue line, the Stars might be even stronger … if you close your eyes and pretend half of them don’t exist. As currently configured, the left side of Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell project to be the league’s best left side — a stacked trifecta of two-way ability.

Whether they actually configure the pairs this way remains to be seen. Either way, the Stars enter the season with a franchise defenseman, a future franchise defenseman and an elite shutdown force. That’s a three-headed monster few teams can match, regardless of how they line up.

Heiskanen is naturally the star of the show here, and few defenders grade out better than he does. He’s a top-five defenseman in the league who does so much with and without the puck all over the ice. He’s the definition of a workhorse with how involved he is. Last year might have been his most complete season, as he paced for 62 points while being one of the league’s best defensive defensemen. He paced for a plus-18 Net Rating and has a strong case as the league’s most complete defenseman. He’s the only one to rank in the top 10 for both projected Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating.

Harley was close in value last season to Heiskanen, with an understated plus-15 Net Rating. He’s working his way up to being Dallas’ second foundational pillar and possesses a lot of the same elite puck-moving instincts as Heiskanen. His heavy involvement and high efficiency in transition in his first year bode well for his future impact — he’s going to be a star. To have both a franchise duo of Robertson and Heiskanen and a future franchise duo of Johnston and Harley feels unfair to 31 other teams.

Lindell is the third fiddle here, and the model is a big fan of what he can do defensively in tough situations. His plus-4 Defensive Rating puts him in very high regard league-wide, a result of allowing very few chances and goals against yearly.

In net, Oettinger should be a strength for the Stars, but that depends on how he responds from a tepid season. He has all the tools to be an elite starter and at least projects to be above average — the Stars just need to see it more consistently.

The weaknesses

Before we get to the elephant in the room, let’s nitpick the forward group. The Stars — thanks to the emergence of Johnston, the growth of Stankoven and the promotion of Mavrik Bourque — could have one of the deepest forward groups in the league. There aren’t a lot of holes here.

But that doesn’t mean everything is perfect.

The second line was an absolute revelation last season, but it’s worth wondering whether they can repeat the magic with 34-year-old Matt Duchene and 33-year-old Tyler Seguin. There’s some expected age-related decline for both that drops each of their ratings by two goals. That brings both down to below-average territory compared to other go-to second-line players. Staving off Father Time is the first key.

The second key will be staving off regression. The duo earned roughly 60 percent of the goals last year, but only 52 percent of the expected goals. That difference tends to correct itself, no matter how strong a player is offensively.

That pair will be something to watch, but it’s an easy nitpick to debunk as it only takes some lineup shuffling to put every player into a more suitable place for a contender if they do struggle. That’s true, too, if the team’s 12th-ranked center depth becomes a concern — with Bourque being an unknown wild card who currently grades out below average. There, it’s as simple as sliding Johnston to the middle again.

Maybe there are concerns about the absolute ceiling of the forwards, especially after a down year from Robertson. That is part of the reason the Stars aren’t in the same tier as the Oilers in the West according to the model — and according to last year’s playoffs, for that matter. But overall, it’s as close to a “no notes” top-to-bottom forward core as there is in the league.

The real concern is the team’s Jekyll-and-Hyde back end. Even if the Stars don’t opt for a drastic left-right split, it’s a disparity worth discussing. There’s a massive chasm between the top and bottom half of this group.

There’s a reasonable upside case to be made with the team’s free-agency pickups, Dumba and Lyubushkin. The former isn’t too far removed from being a top-four defenseman, while the latter looks much more at home in a winning environment next to a puck-mover. The Stars’ top defensemen are so good that they may be able to carry them to the point that both Dumba and Lyubushkin both look much better than projected.

But there’s also a chance that what we’ve seen from both over the last couple of seasons is a signal of how much potential harm they can bring to this lineup at both ends of the ice. “Fit” can be a tricky thing to predict.

The Stars have a strong enough team to overcome that and could address the need at the deadline, too. But for now, it feels like an unforced error that has created a noticeable Achilles’ heel.

The best case

The top line bounces back in a big way, powered by Johnston’s promotion. Oettinger gets back on track, Stankoven and Harley take another leap, and Dumba regains his game. The Stars are a powerhouse in the West and win their first Stanley Cup championship since 1999.

The worst case

The team’s weak defensive depth is their demise, making life difficult for Oettinger. The kids don’t take a step and some of the team’s vets take a step back. The Stars slide to the wild card and lose in the opening round.

The bottom line

A team with Dallas’ high-end star power, offensive depth and goaltending talent is impossible not to take seriously as a contender. There are some reasonable nits to pick a bit farther down the lineup, but everything else about them suggests they’re in it to win it.

 

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33859

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2 hours ago, C-Man said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5815527/2024/10/04/dallas-stars-2024-25-season-preview/

 

I mostly agree. I was scratching my head with the D additions during the offseason, but the more I think about it, the more I think it makes sense. As the article said, this gives us stability on the right side. And it gives Miro, Esa, and Harley the ability to be aggressive and play their game. this also gives Lunqvist a little shelter too. I doubt we're gonna see major production from Dumba or Lyubushkin (gonna call him Lube bc I'll never learn to spell that), but what I hope we get is a line-by-line version of what we got from Tanev and that was be a board beast, pry the puck away, and give it to a forward or your puck-moving partner. Also, both guys played on pretty craptacular teams the last few seasons. i'm betting they perform better just by virtue of being on a better team. or at least I bet that is what Nill is banking on. we shall see! I'm, reservedly fookin' excited. let's go!

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C-Man

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2 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I mostly agree. I was scratching my head with the D additions during the offseason, but the more I think about it, the more I think it makes sense. As the article said, this gives us stability on the right side. And it gives Miro, Esa, and Harley the ability to be aggressive and play their game. this also gives Lunqvist a little shelter too. I doubt we're gonna see major production from Dumba or Lyubushkin (gonna call him Lube bc I'll never learn to spell that), but what I hope we get is a line-by-line version of what we got from Tanev and that was be a board beast, pry the puck away, and give it to a forward or your puck-moving partner. Also, both guys played on pretty craptacular teams the last few seasons. i'm betting they perform better just by virtue of being on a better team. or at least I bet that is what Nill is banking on. we shall see! I'm, reservedly fookin' excited. let's go!

Yeah, I thought it was pretty accurate too right down to Otter needs to get back to the player he was. Something seemed off last year. He was still pretty good but just not quite as good as before last season. And I'm quite confident Nill will be aggressive at the deadline if there are needs (narrator: there always are). Call me sentimental but I would LOVE to see Pavs get the itch to play next spring, get into shape and rejoin the team late in the year for the playoffs and walk off into the sunset as a Cup champion.

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shadow_operative2.0

shadow_operative2.0 15941

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PLAYERS BY POSITION

Forwards (12)
Jamie Benn, Colin Blackwell, Oskar Bäck, Evgenii Dadonov, Matt Duchene, Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Mason Marchment, Jason Robertson, Tyler Seguin, Logan Stankoven, Sam Steel

Defensemen (7)
Mathew Dumba, Thomas Harley, Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, Nils Lundkvist, Ilya Lyubushkin, Brendan Smith

Goaltenders (2)
Casey DeSmith, Jake Oettinger

Injured Non-Roster (1)
Mavrik Bourque

https://www.nhl.com/stars/news/dallas-stars-announce-opening-night-roster-for-2024-25-season-100724

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Scary Stranger

Scary Stranger 1714

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ESPN picking us to win the Cup.

 

Spoiler

The Dallas Stars are going to win the 2025 Stanley Cup.

That breaks a two-year streak of my picking their Western Conference rivals, the Edmonton Oilers, to finally deliver a Stanley Cup to Connor McDavid (and, in turn, Canada for the first time since 1993). Missing that Oilers Cup prediction last season by just one victory disappointed us both. OK, probably McDavid slightly more than me.

In breaking down the 2024-25 NHL season, I've decided that rather than last season's Stanley Cup runner-up, it'll be the two-time Western Conference runner-up that lifts the chalice at the end of the season. The Stars lost to the Golden Knights in 2023 and the Oilers in 2024, both in six games. The third time's the charm for Peter DeBoer's team, an ideal mix of impact veterans, players in their prime and invigorating young talents.

As is tradition, I reached out to the general manager of my Stanley Cup champion-in-waiting to let him know what's coming.

Me: I'm picking you to win the Stanley Cup.

Jim Nill, general manager of the Dallas Stars: I don't know if that's good or bad, but thank you. I appreciate it.

Me: Usually, I feel bad about picking teams like this because that's placing extra expectations on them. But I don't feel bad about picking you guys because I feel like you've got expectations anyway, because you've been the bridesmaid twice in a row.

Nill: No, we do. Our guys are hungry. They know what it takes. People don't realize what a tough road it was last year. We had to go through Vegas and Colorado. Those are tough. And then he hit Edmonton, so it wasn't an easy, you know, walk through the playoffs for us. Stanley Cup champion, Stanley Cup champion and then Edmonton who went to the finals. But that's good, though. To win it all, you've got to beat them all. That's our mentality.

My Stanley Cup Final is a Y2K throwback series: The Dallas Stars against the New Jersey Devils, who go from last season's embarrassing flop to Eastern Conference champions thanks to an offseason of smart moves and a regular season of good health and great goaltending.

This time, it's the Stars on top, hoisting the Cup for the first time since 1999.

What about the rest of the NHL? Here's my division-by-division breakdown of the projected standings. Playoff teams are bolded. Good luck to all 32 teams. Hope everyone has fun out there.

 

Edited by Scary Stranger
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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33859

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18 hours ago, shadow_operative2.0 said:

https://www.nhl.com/stars/news/dallas-stars-announce-opening-night-roster-for-2024-25-season-100724

nice surprise to see Bäck's name there - he really stood out in the preseason so it's definitely earned. need to read up on Blackwell and Smith, both of our lesser-known offseason acquisitions.

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shadow_operative2.0

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This made me laugh. 

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OFFSEASON ACQUISITIONS (5)

F Colin Blackwell - Signed as a free agent on July 2, 2024
G Casey DeSmith - Signed as a free agent on July 1, 2024
D Mathew Dumba - Signed as a free agent on July 1, 2024
D Ilya Lyubushkin - Signed as a free agent on July 1, 2024
D Brendan Smith - Signed as a free agent on July 1, 2024

Basically 36 hours of offseason work there. 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15039

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This is sooo stupid. Hockey is a niche sport with a narrow following. Sticking the SEASON OPENER on espn+/hulu just ensures a significant portion of your narrow target audience can’t watch. And they do it on the opening game of their brand new Victory app! This is ridiculously stupid. 

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lonestarsooner

lonestarsooner 121

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In Houston and not blacked out on ESPN+. It’s going to be an interesting viewing season figuring out what’s there and what’s on Victory+. Not to mention how to DVR stuff if we’re not around at the start of the game. Is there a play from the start option with either of those? 

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wood

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14 minutes ago, Scary Stranger said:

It’s available on Hulu in Dallas as well.

Same here, but it's listed as an ESPN+ broadcast. Do you need to have ESPN+ to view it on Hulu?

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lonestarsooner

lonestarsooner 121

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Just looked up the female broadcaster doing the game tonight. AJ Mleczko. Played for Harvard. Won an NCAA title with them. Played on the US gold medal squad in 98 and the silver medal squad in 02. She’s doing a good job on the color. 

BOOM!!!!

Marchment with the no look!

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27598

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1 hour ago, lonestarsooner said:

In Houston and not blacked out on ESPN+. It’s going to be an interesting viewing season figuring out what’s there and what’s on Victory+. Not to mention how to DVR stuff if we’re not around at the start of the game. Is there a play from the start option with either of those? 

You're a brave soul sticking your head up this week.

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