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Week Seven Preview: From Blood Week to Red River

texifornia

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texifornia

texifornia 56862

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Hate Week, midweek football, and a top-tier primetime slate. After a weekend of snoozy matchups gave us must-watch TV, this one gets mean in a hurry.

PS: I'll be in Seattle on Saturday. Anyone know a good spot to watch the games?

Lines are the Circa opening lines.

Tuesday game

Florida International @ Liberty (-18) - 7/6 CBSSN: Vice U versus the world's most annoying money laundering front. Just like every week, we hope one of the community colleges Liberty plays removes them from the Playoff conversation.

Wednesday games

New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State (-18) - 7:30/6:30 ESPN2: Aggies at Gamecocks! No, the other ones. Sorry.

Thursday games

Coastal Carolina @ James Madison (-10) - 7:30/6:30 ESPN2: Fun Belt action! Say hello again to Tim Beck, who has already made the Chanticleers much less fun to watch.

Middle Tennessee State @ Louisiana Tech (-6) - 8/7 CBSSN: It's college football. It's on TV.

Friday games

Harvard @ Cornell - 6/5 ESPN2: Did you know Ithaca is gorges? Why is this televised? Harvard even has a conference loss already.

Memphis (-5) @ South Florida - 7/6 ESPN: A pair of talented G5s, in what should be a close game. (NOW SATURDAY AT 3:30ET, THANKS MILTON)

Northwestern @ Maryland (-12) - 8/7 Fox: Well, it is a B1G game. But it's not a good one.

#16 Utah (-5) @ Arizona State - 10:30/9:30 ESPN: The Big XII has been very good at cannibalizing itself. Can Utah stop Cam Skattebo? 

Saturday games

South Carolina @ #7 Alabama (-22) - 11/12 ABC: Two wounded teams face off. Dylan Stewart had one of the funniest, most utterly braindead penalties of the week last week. Bama lost to the New Mexican Superhombre, Diego Pavia. Feels like Bama rights the ship here.

Washington @ Iowa (-1) - 11/12 Fox: A Big Noon Saturday game finally makes the watch list! It's not very good, and it's mostly here because it's a weak early slate, but still.

Georgia Tech (-4) @ North Carolina - 11/12 CW: How low can Mack go?

It might be fun to check in on some decent MACtion with Toledo (-10) @ Buffalo (11/12 ESPNU) and see if the Deacs can put up any resistance in #10 Clemson (-23) @ Wake Forest (11/12 ESPN).

-

#t18 Oklahoma vs. #1(!!!) Texas (-14) - 2:30/3:30 ABC: OU sucks.

#4 Penn State (-4) @ USC - 2:30/3:30 CBS: Now we're reaching the kinds of games James Franklin loves to lose. USC's schedule is a bag of hammers, and Minnesota is an ugly loss, but they should be up for a top 5 visitor.

California @ #22 Pittsburgh (-3) - 3:30/2:30 ESPN: Top-tier online fanbase matchup, but it's hard to imagine Cal has much left in the mental tank after the officials swiped a monster win from them in Berkeley.

Arizona @ #14 BYU (-3) - 4/3 Fox: It doesn't feel like BYU can keep this undefeated streak up, and Zona is coming off a big win against Utah. Should be an excellent game.

Keep an Upset Watch eye on Stanford @ #11 Notre Dame (-23) (3:30/2:30 NBC) and Mississippi State @ #5 Georgia (-34) (4:15/3:15 SECN).

-

#2 Ohio State (-4) @ #3 Oregon - 7:30/6:30 NBC: Fuck yes, this is going to kick ass.

#9 Ole Miss (-3) @ #13 LSU - 7:30/6:30 ABC: A mean, hateful ranked rivalry undercard. The Magnolia Bowl is a guaranteed mudfight, and Lane and Kelly are box office head coaches.

#11 Iowa State (-3) @ West Virginia - 8/7 Fox: A nasty trap game for the force 5 Cyclones. Night games in Morgantown hit different.

Florida @ #8 Tennessee (-17) - 7/6 ESPN: A strong helmet game. Tennessee can't let Arkansas beat them twice. Being at home should help.

-

#t18 Kansas State (-4) @ Colorado - 10:15/9:15 ESPN: KSU is the fully-weaponized version of the NDSU team Colorado almost lost to. Good luck, Buffs.

#17 Boise State (-18) @ Hawaii - 11/10 CBSSN: Can Ashton Jeanty pass the Hawaii test?

Edited by texifornia
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Jimmy Two Times

Jimmy Two Times 795

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Keep thinking OSU will comfortably win until I remember they’re starting Will Howard. Will be interesting to see if Oregon can slow down the run early in the game and if OSU struggles to adjust to playing athletes that can punch back for the first time this season. 

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19020

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19 hours ago, texifornia said:

Hate Week, midweek football, and a top-tier primetime slate. After a weekend of snoozy matchups gave us must-watch TV, this one gets mean in a hurry.

PS: I'll be in Seattle on Saturday. Anyone know a good spot to watch the games?

Lines are the Circa opening lines.

Tuesday game

Florida International @ Liberty (-18) - 7/6 CBSSN: Vice U versus the world's most annoying money laundering front. Just like every week, we hope one of the community colleges Liberty plays removes them from the Playoff conversation.

Wednesday games

New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State (-18) - 7:30/6:30 ESPN2: Aggies at Gamecocks! No, the other ones. Sorry.

Thursday games

Coastal Carolina @ James Madison (-10) - 7:30/6:30 ESPN2: Fun Belt action! Say hello again to Tim Beck, who has already made the Chanticleers much less fun to watch.

Middle Tennessee State @ Louisiana Tech (-6) - 8/7 CBSSN: It's college football. It's on TV.

Friday games

Harvard @ Cornell - 6/5 ESPN2: Did you know Ithaca is gorges? Why is this televised? Harvard even has a conference loss already.

Memphis (-5) @ South Florida - 7/6 ESPN: A pair of talented G5s, in what should be a close game.

Northwestern @ Maryland (-12) - 8/7 Fox: Well, it is a B1G game. But it's not a good one.

#16 Utah (-5) @ Arizona State - 10:30/9:30 ESPN: The Big XII has been very good at cannibalizing itself. Can Utah stop Cam Skattebo? 

Saturday games

South Carolina @ #7 Alabama (-22) - 11/12 ABC: Two wounded teams face off. Dylan Stewart had one of the funniest, most utterly braindead penalties of the week last week. Bama lost to the New Mexican Superhombre, Diego Pavia. Feels like Bama rights the ship here.

Washington @ Iowa (-1) - 11/12 Fox: A Big Noon Saturday game finally makes the watch list! It's not very good, and it's mostly here because it's a weak early slate, but still.

Georgia Tech (-4) @ North Carolina - 11/12 CW: How low can Mack go?

It might be fun to check in on some decent MACtion with Toledo (-10) @ Buffalo (11/12 ESPNU) and see if the Deacs can put up any resistance in #10 Clemson (-23) @ Wake Forest (11/12 ESPN).

-

#t18 Oklahoma vs. #1(!!!) Texas (-14) - 2:30/3:30 ABC: OU sucks.

#4 Penn State (-4) @ USC - 2:30/3:30 CBS: Now we're reaching the kinds of games James Franklin loves to lose. USC's schedule is a bag of hammers, and Minnesota is an ugly loss, but they should be up for a top 5 visitor.

California @ #22 Pittsburgh (-3) - 3:30/2:30 ESPN: Top-tier online fanbase matchup, but it's hard to imagine Cal has much left in the mental tank after the officials swiped a monster win from them in Berkeley.

Arizona @ #14 BYU (-3) - 4/3 Fox: It doesn't feel like BYU can keep this undefeated streak up, and Zona is coming off a big win against Utah. Should be an excellent game.

Keep an Upset Watch eye on Stanford @ #11 Notre Dame (-23) (3:30/2:30 NBC) and Mississippi State @ #5 Georgia (-34) (4:15/3:15 SECN).

-

#2 Ohio State (-4) @ #3 Oregon - 7:30/6:30 NBC: Fuck yes, this is going to kick ass.

#9 Ole Miss (-3) @ #13 LSU - 7:30/6:30 ABC: A mean, hateful ranked rivalry undercard. The Magnolia Bowl is a guaranteed mudfight, and Lane and Kelly are box office head coaches.

#11 Iowa State (-3) @ West Virginia - 8/7 Fox: A nasty trap game for the force 5 Cyclones. Night games in Morgantown hit different.

Florida @ #8 Tennessee (-17) - 7/6 ESPN: A strong helmet game. Tennessee can't let Arkansas beat them twice. Being at home should help.

-

#t18 Kansas State (-4) @ Colorado - 10:15/9:15 ESPN: KSU is the fully-weaponized version of the NDSU team Colorado almost lost to. Good luck, Buffs.

#17 Boise State (-18) @ Hawaii - 11/10 CBSSN: Can Ashton Jeanty pass the Hawaii test?

There's some pretty interesting lines this week after all of last week's upsets. There's definitely some debate over who's actually good or who just had a one-week fluke. 

1. Vandy is a 13.5 point dog at Kentucky and Bama is a 21.5 home favorite over SCar. So Bama seriously dropped the ball to a still not good Vandy team. Also has some inference to Mizzou since Vandy also took Mizzou to OT at Mizzou. 

2. Following up on #1, Mizzou eeked out wins at home against BC and Vandy, who are 56th and 67th in F+.  I have no idea how SP still has Mizzou at 13th other than still having preseason ranking bias.  FEI has them all the way down to #32, and I believe FEI puts less preseason weighting in their rankings at this point in the year than SP+.  To the eye test, I'd say Mizzou looks to be around 50th-60th best team in the country, and I expect they'll keep falling in the advanced rankings. A&M got a huge boost getting to play Mizzou while they were still ranked in the top 10.

3. It's not a direct comparison, but Texas was a 37.5 point favorite over MSU with Arch starting two weeks ago. MSU's performance against us bumped them up a bit in both SP+ and FEI. UGA is a 33.5 point favorite over MSU this week. I'm sure the lines will change based on how UT does against OU, but the markets are a little all over the place with the UGA game in two weeks. Most places have UGA as about a 2 point favorite over us. Fanduel is the outlier with UT as a 2.5 point favorite. Caeser's has UT +3 at -110. That seems like a pretty nice line to bet two weeks out, especially if you think UT will mudhole OU this weekend.

4. Iowa being a 2.5 point favorite over Washington surprises me some. I think Washington is pretty clearly better, but I wonder how much the game being at Iowa and Washington traveling two time zones plays in to the spread. Big Ten teams are 1-8 when traveling multiple time zones (not many unexpected outcomes though), so maybe the travel is giving a bigger home field bump than normal. Iowa's a little different this year than most previous years. They still have a very good defense, but they are more prone to giving up explosive plays this year, and their running offense is very good. If UW can hold up against the run, Iowa will be in trouble because I don't see them shutting down UW's offense all game. 

 

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Funk Doctor Spock

Funk Doctor Spock 12177

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I think Ohio State wins comfortably, but still won't pass us in the polls. I truly believe Oregon is overrated. They just don't have the size of the SEC/B1G at this point. OSU has the size this year on defense and offensive weapons in Smith and Egbuka, as well as Judkins/Henderson. 

Edited by Funk Doctor Spock
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JBJ

JBJ 3654

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21 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

I have no idea how SP still has Mizzou at 13th other than still having preseason ranking bias.  FEI has them all the way down to #32, and I believe FEI puts less preseason weighting in their rankings at this point in the year than SP+.  To the eye test, I'd say Mizzou looks to be around 50th-60th best team in the country, and I expect they'll keep falling in the advanced rankings. A&M got a huge boost getting to play Mizzou while they were still ranked in the top 10.

Iowa being a 2.5 point favorite over Washington surprises me some.

My model has Mizzou #54 (high confidence) and Iowa #14 (low confidence).

Edited by JBJ
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JBJ

JBJ 3654

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12 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Did Mixzou drop a ton after last week, or did your model already have them lower? 

If I take out preseason, they were #36 last week.  So they fell quite a bit, but they weren't high either.  (Preseason still factored in for them last week, but not this week).  With preseason figured on they were 24 from an initial preseason rank of 8.

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62552

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Iowa fucking blows. They had multiple pick opportunities against Howard and failed on most of them. He was trying to give them the ball. They're slow on the edges and Higgins is more than a smidge overrated. On top of all of that, Ferentz is a bitch on the sidelines. He chooses to punt and duck more than any coach in the country. Multiple decisions to punt on 4th and 1 around the 50 while facing a significantly better opponent. You have to take chances there. I'm guessing the HC being spineless isn't a part of any models, but that can certainly determine outcomes. 

What game has Dan Lanning won in which the opponent had comparable talent or better? I believe that answer is "none". Why do people think anything should change now? I expect Ohio State to beat Oregon's ass.

Conversely, everyone is expecting Penn State to roll Lincoln Riley's USC because now the OL is a mess in Los Angeles. Penn State under James Franklin has been pretty good at beating the teams they're supposed to beat and shitting themselves against the big boys. Franklin is 13-25 against top 25 opponents at PSU. He's brutally terrible against top 10 teams - 3-17. I know USC isn't ranked, but they've got the talent to be there. If they put it together at home and score early, how does PSU handle playing from behind and 3 time zones away? I think this one could be an upset. 

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JBJ

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22 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Iowa fucking blows. They had multiple pick opportunities against Howard and failed on most of them. He was trying to give them the ball. They're slow on the edges and Higgins is more than a smidge overrated. On top of all of that, Ferentz is a bitch on the sidelines. He chooses to punt and duck more than any coach in the country. Multiple decisions to punt on 4th and 1 around the 50 while facing a significantly better opponent. You have to take chances there. I'm guessing the HC being spineless isn't a part of any models, but that can certainly determine outcomes. 

What game has Dan Lanning won in which the opponent had comparable talent or better? I believe that answer is "none". Why do people think anything should change now? I expect Ohio State to beat Oregon's ass.

Conversely, everyone is expecting Penn State to roll Lincoln Riley's USC because now the OL is a mess in Los Angeles. Penn State under James Franklin has been pretty good at beating the teams they're supposed to beat and shitting themselves against the big boys. Franklin is 13-25 against top 25 opponents at PSU. He's brutally terrible against top 10 teams - 3-17. I know USC isn't ranked, but they've got the talent to be there. If they put it together at home and score early, how does PSU handle playing from behind and 3 time zones away? I think this one could be an upset. 

If I had to guess, Iowa is kind of latched to Iowa State right now.  They aren't good enough for the OSU game to be telling or bad enough to learn much from the Minnesota game.  Meanwhile, Iowa State is rolling through cupcakes. The model is asking to be fed more for both teams.

Oregon doesn't seem good on TV or the model.  I just don't see it happening.

PSU-USC is definitely an upset watch game if USC can move the ball.  Slow start and low scoring favors PSU.

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PencilPusher

PencilPusher 454

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Welp...all those trendlines from prior weeks just blew up spectacularly on a week that should have been boring. Where do we see the playoffs now?

  • SEC is on the verge of potentially only having 3 teams from the league make the show as opposed to 4. That's what happens when standard bearers get punked by the likes of Vandy and Wooo Pig Sooie... teams that won't be anywhere near the Top 20 when all is said and done. You can forgive losses to other top teams in the league, but lose to a second/third tier league team puts more pressure on you to stack wins against better teams. Alabama still has roadies to Tennessee, LSU, and OU to come. Vols still have the Alabama game and a trip to Athens to come. One of these teams may not make the show after showing out pretty well in the month of September. In steps LSU and the Ags to the discussion but don't see either team making it out of the year with fewer than 3 losses. LSU has Ole Miss this weekend, a trip to Kroger Field, and Alabama still to go. The Aggies will do Aggie things and lose a couple between now and then. Big question...how many SEC teams end up with 3 losses and who gets the invite(s)? Hopefully the Longhorns learned something while watching the carnage this weekend on how to approach the remaining schedule, particularly after the Georgia game. 
  • Big 10 may benefit from the stumbles in the SEC last week as the league has 4 undefeated teams remaining and on balance the league is top to bottom worse than the SEC. Buckeyes/Ducks will be a good game but the loser would still be on track for a playoff spot. Watching Penn State head to USC...if Penn St wins, they should also have an inside track to a spot. If they lose (and with James Franklin on the sideline that is a reasonable possibility), maybe not. Indiana is the other team that should be watched. 4 of their last 6 at home and only Ohio State in Columbus is a ranked team in that schedule. It is not out of the realm of possibility that IU is 11-1 at the end of the season and is in the Big 10 championship game. If all 4 of Ohio State, Oregon, Penn St, and Indiana are 10-2 or better, can't see why they all wouldn't be in the playoffs.
  • ACC still a 2 bid league with Clemson's resurgence and Miami's theatrics. Miami though feels like they might drop one (or more) they shouldn't given they could have easily lost the last 2 (and some argue should have) which could change the calculus here. Say hello to Pitt who is 5-0 but their back half schedule seems rife with loss opportunities for the Panthers. Is SMU a candidate? Their schedule is easier than Pitt and their close loss at home to BYU is looking pretty good right now. 
  • Still don't know what to make of the Big 12. Iowa State is undefeated and looks like the best candidate but sure seems like a lot of teams will have 3+ losses when all is said and done. The SEC chaos certainly benefits the Big 12 and its ability to get 2 teams in if they somehow end the season with 2 teams with 2 or fewer losses. One thing I do know...Oklahoma State and Kansas have to be the biggest disappointments in the league so far. 
  • Won't even suggest a G5 team for the show. However, here is an interesting thing I'll be rooting for. Since Army and Navy are 5-0, if they get through the AAC schedule undefeated, they could meet in the AAC championship game a week before their scheduled game. How is that going to work? Seems like we may need to move that game to Thanksgiving weekend in future years but boy wouldn't that be fun this year. Of course it probably won't happen because it would just be too incredible to comprehend. But here on week 7, it is fun speculation.

Really only one game this weekend but since there are other teams playing I'll comment on a couple of games:

Ohio State-Oregon: Big 10 finally has an interesting watchable matchup featuring ex Big 12 QB's. Either QB could end up being a hero or a goat, but to me Ohio State just seems more consistent and built to win a game like this on the road. Will Howard will show up and bite the Buckeyes in the ass...but not this week. 

LSU-Ole Miss: Big game for both teams and could be an elimination game for a playoff spot with both teams remaining schedules. Ole Miss got right last week but heads into Death Valley without having a lot of recent success there. Believe it or not, Ole Miss sports the better defense in this matchup which should give them the edge. However, Caden Durham has been a revelation for the TIgers and makes their offense more dangerous and will be able to test the Rebels. LSU's defense is quite mediocre and lacks playmakers so I will reluctantly take the Rebels though I expect lots of points. 

Penn St-USC - Just feels like a trap for the Nittany Lions. Neither coach is a "big game" coach by any stretch but Lincoln has more Top 25 scalps than Franklin does. Still Penn State's defense is really good and USC's has just leveled up to middling. So reluctantly take the Lions but won't be surprised if they lose and even lose bigly

And now for the game...the only one that matters. Texas/OU - Always a 50/50 game and the Sooners start an unknown at QB. Normally that would be a bad sign for Texas, but in this game it is usually the guy that comes in during the game that causes the problem (see Williams, Caleb a couple of years ago), not the QB who starts the game. I suspect OU will have their usual assortment of chicanery for this game, but Texas is experienced, deep, and way better at QB and defense this year. Golden Hat returns to its rightful place

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5733

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On 10/7/2024 at 7:31 PM, WBT said:

I think one of OSU and PSU is going to come out west and lose.  Maybe both..

Rooting for both to lose because they are both garbage schools.

It would be funny if Florida could continue their Tenner mastery but I doubt it since its in Knoxy and Napier is an absolute moron.

Only other game remotely entertaining outside of Dallas is it would be funny as fuck if Lane got to taunt BK in BR since he doesn't get to clown on Bilbo Aggins anymore.

Snoozefest the rest of the way

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19020

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On 10/8/2024 at 12:25 PM, Burt Macklin said:

I'm sure the lines will change based on how UT does against OU, but the markets are a little all over the place with the UGA game in two weeks. Most places have UGA as about a 2 point favorite over us. Fanduel is the outlier with UT as a 2.5 point favorite. Caeser's has UT +3 at -110. That seems like a pretty nice line to bet two weeks out, especially if you think UT will mudhole OU this weekend.

Gonna pat myself on the back on this one. I thought it was crazy you could get UT +3 at almost even odds in the middle of last week. Now the line has swung 8 points. 

(Ignore anything I said about Iowa and UW).  

On 10/8/2024 at 12:25 PM, Burt Macklin said:

1. Vandy is a 13.5 point dog at Kentucky and Bama is a 21.5 home favorite over SCar. So the lines imply Bama seriously dropped the ball to a still not good Vandy team. Also has some inference to Mizzou since Vandy also took Mizzou to OT at Mizzou. 

Looking back at these lines is also pretty interesting. Turns out Vandy is legit, and Bama has critical issues that aren't easily fixed. The lines didn't adjust nearly enough to the Bama-Vandy result for either side. Now that Vandy won and Bama easily could have lost to SCar, I'm assuming the lines will be adjusted for both teams moving forward. 

 

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