CFP Hypothetical

[statsman 5425]

I couldn’t find a good existing thread, so am starting this one. If there is one, I’m fine if it’s moved. 
 
I am pretty sure a two-loss SEC team (and probably B1G team) will make the expanded field. That would be a Vandy, OU, Arkansas or Ole Miss that won out the rest of the way, a Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, or LSU that only dropped one more, or a Texas that dropped two. Given that teams are going to play each other, I think that’ll hold up. 
 
Here is a hypothetical. Suppose (next year) Alabama beat Auburn, both finished 10-2, but Alabama went to the SEC CG, instead of Auburn. Then, if Alabama lost the CCG, they would be 10-3. Is there an argument for giving Auburn an at-large CFP berth and not Alabama? Or do we just need to consider CCG losers under a different criteria?

[Wulaw Horn 18981]

1 minute ago, statsman said:

I couldn’t find a good existing thread, so am starting this one. If there is one, I’m fine if it’s moved. 
 
I am pretty sure a two-loss SEC team (and probably B1G team) will make the expanded field. That would be a Vandy, OU, Arkansas or Ole Miss that won out the rest of the way, a Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, or LSU that only dropped one more, or a Texas that dropped two. Given that teams are going to play each other, I think that’ll hold up. 
 
Here is a hypothetical. Suppose (next year) Alabama beat Auburn, both finished 10-2, but Alabama went to the SEC CG, instead of Auburn. Then, if Alabama lost the CCG, they would be 10-3. Is there an argument for giving Auburn an at-large CFP berth and not Alabama? Or do we just need to consider CCG losers under a different criteria?

Different criteria.  But they’d both make it by the way. 

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

I don’t think there’s any way short of an absolute beatdown or injuries in the championship game that you put a team who wasn’t good enough to get there above one that was. 

You were the third best team before the game. You’re still the third best team. 

Edited October 14 by Doc Daneeka

[WBT 20422]

10 minutes ago, statsman said:

Here is a hypothetical. Suppose (next year) Alabama beat Auburn, both finished 10-2, but Alabama went to the SEC CG, instead of Auburn. Then, if Alabama lost the CCG, they would be 10-3. Is there an argument for giving Auburn an at-large CFP berth and not Alabama? Or do we just need to consider CCG losers under a different criteria?

That's why the august CFP committee gets paid the big bucks.  With as unbalanced as conference schedules are now, I could see a case where a less deserving team got to the CCG, was exposed there, and was then left out of the field.

[Tex Long 4348]

Follow the TV money. Biggest audience gets the call.

[Hurtlocker 2208]

18 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:

I don’t think there’s any way short of an absolute beatdown or injuries in the championship game that you put a team who wasn’t good enough to get there above one that was. 

You were the third best team before the game. You’re still the third best team. 

This, they don't really count CCG losses the same as regular season losses.   The 13th game is a different tier, you're playing for a bye, the loser gets the at large.  All of the conferences have moved to the top two best teams in the champ game, not two division winners.   Auburn, in this case, gets a lower at large consideration.

[hornbri 1375]

Yeah the fear of a 3 or 4 way tie in a divisionless conference does bring it up. 

Just saying if you have 3 or 4 teams tied with with a 10-2 record before the game and then you have four teams that were 11-2, 10-2, 10-2, 10-3 

I would say that the 10-3 team gets left out in most years. The simple argument of how will they win a playoff when they just lost to a playoff team….

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

1 minute ago, hornbri said:

Yeah the fear of a 3 or 4 way tie in a divisionless conference does bring it up. 

Just saying if you have 3 or 4 teams tied with with a 10-2 record before the game and then you have four teams that were 11-2, 10-2, 10-2, 10-3 

I would say that the 10-3 team gets left out in most years. The simple argument of how will they win a playoff when they just lost to a playoff team….

The same way a team that wasn’t even good enough for the conference championship game does. 

[hornbri 1375]

Just now, Doc Daneeka said:

The same way a team that wasn’t even good enough for the conference championship game does. 

Maybe? Depends on when the losses were, but losing the last game you play is going to have consequences. 

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

Just now, hornbri said:

Maybe? Depends on when the losses were, but losing the last game you play is going to have consequences. 

No “maybe.” The conference already decided its two best teams. 

If your criteria set up an incentive structure not even to be in the championship game, you should rethink your criteria. 

[UTexasFight 9380]

1 minute ago, Doc Daneeka said:

No “maybe.” The conference already decided its two best teams. 

If your criteria set up an incentive structure not even to be in the championship game, you should rethink your criteria. 

You mean like the 2008 Big 12?

[hornbri 1375]

1 minute ago, Doc Daneeka said:

No “maybe.” The conference already decided its two best teams. 

If your criteria set up an incentive structure not even to be in the championship game, you should rethink your criteria. 

You could easily have a case where at least 3 of these teams did not even play each other and the deciding factor on who got to the game was a fucking coin flip. 

its a big MAYBE 

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

2 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

You mean like the 2008 Big 12?

Which conferences use a tiebreaker like that? Good luck finding a tiebreaker written so that Texas was guaranteed to go, even if there are articulable reasons why Texas should have.

 

1 minute ago, hornbri said:

You could easily have a case where at least 3 of these teams did not even play each other and the deciding factor on who got to the game was a fucking coin flip. 

its a big MAYBE 

Ok, I’ll make an exception for a team that gets in on a coin flip… if that ever happens. 

Edited October 14 by Doc Daneeka

[Huckleberry 32703]

This is impossible to answer generally because of unbalanced conference schedules. It will depend on the specific scenario. 

If an SEC team loses two competitive games to Texas and Georgia and goes 10-2 (6-2) on the season they could very justifiably go ahead of an SEC team that went 10-2 (7-1) then lost the CCG if they avoided Texas and Georgia, lost to a mediocre non conference opponent, then get blasted in the CCG by Texas or Georgia. 

[Tex Long 4348]

"... in which case, the team most highly thought of by selected employees of certain news media shall be chosen."

 

[n64ra 1078]

Despite the CFP name, it's not a playoff (where a team who deserves to get it does so). It's an invitational where they invite the bigger name that'll generate more buzz.

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

1 minute ago, n64ra said:

Despite the CFP name, it's not a playoff (where a team who deserves to get it does so). It's an invitational where they invite the bigger name that'll generate more buzz.

Well, at least five of them nominally deserve it. 

What’s your method for determined who “deserves” it when there’s almost always insufficient overlap in schedules outside of conference play and wildly imbalanced conference strength to have an NFL-type method?

[WBT 20422]

31 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:

Well, at least five of them nominally deserve it. 

What’s your method for determined who “deserves” it when there’s almost always insufficient overlap in schedules outside of conference play and wildly imbalanced conference strength to have an NFL-type method?

Go to a system where winning your round robin conference of regional rivals is the goal, intersectional bowl games at the end of the year are mostly for fun, and the idea of a national champion is mostly fodder for media grandstanding and fan bragging rights.

Nah, that would never work.

[LTtxfan 48980]

Looks like B12 just nailed down only one bid for CFP with k-state and cyclone losses today.