SEC Championship Game - Scenarios?

[Pancho 44452]

Anyone have the brain and time to figure this out? Winner of LSU/A&M is in the drivers seat.

I know that Tennessee and UGA still play.

We play Vanderbilt next week.

After that…?

 

 

[mdmost 42842]

Win out, UGA drops one, aggy would have a loss to us. If UGA wins out, we have to win out and have LSU lose to aggy. Would set up a rematch with UGA. 

Edited October 20 by mdmost

[Treefidy 1463]

4 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Win out, UGA drops one, aggy would have a loss to us. If UGA wins out, we have to win out and have LSU lose to aggy. Would set up a rematch with UGA. 

If we win out and UGA wins out, LSU needs to lose any one of their remaining games with the exception of Bama?  We would both have 1 loss and have common opponents in ATM, UF, Vandy, and OU

[mdmost 42842]

10 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

If we win out and UGA wins out, LSU needs to lose any one of their remaining games with the exception of Bama?  We would both have 1 loss and have common opponents in ATM, UF, Vandy, and OU

You're right. Tennessee might become a problem if they beat Georgia and LSU beats aggy. Tennessee would get the nod over us for beating Georgia (#3 in the tiebreaker). I just don't see LSU staying undefeated with Bama and Georgia left. Georgia has the inside track with a trip to Ole Miss as their toughest away test remaining. 

Bottom line, just win out and let the chips fall where they may. We're hosting a home game in the playoff in that scenario. 

Edited October 20 by mdmost

[Treefidy 1463]

Basically we do not control our destiny.  We need to win out obviously.  
 

If LSU wins out they are in.   UGA wins out and they are in.    Tennessee wins out and they would bump us by virtue of beating UGA. 
 

If LSU loses only to Bama, and Tennessee/UGA wins out then LSU goes ahead of us because they beat Ole Miss while we beat cow bell.
 

 

[David Dennison 18647]

All I really care about it the CFP. They need to end conference championship games, but they won't because money.

[DaysOff 7849]

3rd place and a guaranteed playoff spot is fine by me.

[David Dennison 18647]

40 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

3rd place and a guaranteed playoff spot is fine by me.

I wouldn't be upset about it, that's for sure.

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2630]

fuck that. i want to win our first sec championship in our first season.

shut all the mouth breathers up.

 

god i fucking hate all the other fanbases in this conference.  which i guess is a good thing. makes the games have meaning 

[VirginiaLonghorn 4750]

2 minutes ago, FORTY NINE TO ZERO said:

fuck that. i want to win our first sec championship in our first season.

shut all the mouth breathers up.

god i fucking hate all the other fanbases in this conference.  which i guess is a good thing. makes the games have meaning 

How do you classify those who chunk potentially lethal objects onto the field?

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2630]

4 minutes ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

How do you classify those who chunk potentially lethal objects onto the field?

love it.  proud of the students for not putting up with their BS.  the plastic water bottles forced the refs to fix their mistake. 

❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️😘

Edited October 20 by FORTY NINE TO ZERO

[Texas Jeff 1932]

Games left involving two teams with 0 or 1 conference loss each:

• LSU at Texas A&M (10/26)
• Texas at Vanderbilt (10/26)
• Tennessee at Georgia (11/16)
• Texas at Texas A&M (11/30)
• Tennessee at Vanderbilt (11/30)

Missouri has one loss and no games left against zero or one loss teams.  Alabama is their biggest test.

Alabama can play a spoiler role at home vs Missouri (10/26) and on the road at LSU (11/9)

Arkansas can also be a spoiler with games at home vs Texas (11/16) and on the road at Missouri (11/30)

Florida still has games at home vs Georgia (11/1), at Texas (11/9) and at home vs LSU (11/16)

Ole Miss can spoil Georgia's season at home (11/9)

Edited October 20 by Texas Jeff

[UTEE97 3429]

[David Dennison 18647]

1 minute ago, UTEE97 said:

[UTEE97 3429]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

That's an obligatory gif when discussing postseason following a bad loss. We have a lot of things to fix and have tough games on the road.

[David Dennison 18647]

1 minute ago, UTEE97 said:

That's an obligatory gif when discussing postseason following a bad loss. We have a lot of things to fix and have tough games on the road.

I get it, but we're in good shape to make the field of 12.

[UTEE97 3429]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

I get it, but we're in good shape to make the field of 12.

I hope so but we have to figure some things out on offense. I don't know if we have enough time to get Quinn's confidence back in time.

[BigHorn'13 3352]

28 minutes ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

How do you classify those who chunk potentially lethal objects onto the field?

Lol lethal? It wasn't a great look for us but I don't blame them. It was that shitty of a flag in a game where the refs had been letting receivers and DBs play physical. Plus, Barron was playing to the ball the whole way. 

17 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Games left involving two teams with 0 or 1 conference loss each:

• LSU at Texas A&M (10/26)
• Texas at Vanderbilt (10/26)
• Tennessee at Georgia (11/16)
• Texas at Texas A&M (11/30)
• Tennessee at Vanderbilt (11/30)

Missouri has one loss and no games left against zero or one loss teams.  Alabama is their biggest test.

Alabama can play a spoiler role at home vs Missouri (10/26) and on the road at LSU (11/9)

Arkansas can also be a spoiler with games at home vs Texas (11/16) and on the road at Missouri (11/30)

Florida still has games at home vs Georgia (11/1), at Texas (11/9) and at home vs LSU (11/16)

Ole Miss can spoil Georgia's season at home (11/9)

Yeah, I'mma need a flowchart or something...

I was under the impression that if we win out, we'd be in, after the Bama loss. I forgot about LSU lingering around. 

[ATXbronco 4060]

Here's undefeated LSU's remaining schedule.

[utexas8 1433]

Tennessee sucks. Don’t have to worry about them.

So Georgia still has to play Tennessee, ole miss. Don’t trust any of those teams to do it. LSU has not lost to a SEC team yet. They play Aggy, Vanderbilt, bama. LSU is a problem. That schedule isn’t too bad. Bama isn’t the old bama. We need to hope bama can pull it together like they did against Georgia. Also pray that lane can get it together for their game against Georgia.

Realistically I think there’s only 3 teams it’ll
Boil down to. Georgia, LsU, Texas.

Tennessee, ole miss, a&m will lose.

[ztejas 43262]

Win out and we're fine either way.

Getting a bye in the 1st round is optimal but that team will wind up playing the same amount of games anyway. The main advantage is they have a full month off vs. a month off then a game then a QF game. 

In fact - LOSING in the CCG is the worst scenario. You absolutely don't want to be that team. 

[Nueces River Rat 5529]

Some of my delusional aggy friends think they have a good chance to remain undefeated until they play us.    

LSU and  South Carolina are possible loses and in fact I say probable.   Carolina has actually been playing good ball and probably should’ve beat Bama last week.

Auburn?   Can’t put my finger on them other than they lost to OU, but came within four of beating what I believe is a way overrated Mizzou team.   The same team aggy likes they pound their chests about beating a top ranked team at the time that win occurred.   

Aggy’s loss was against the media darling Norte Dame who the next week lost at home againt Northern Illinois who now sits at 4-3 and towards the bottom of the MAC standings.   Their wins were against Bowling Green who is in the MAC with season record of 3-4 and that win was close won and FCS McNeese.  Other than the above noted Mizzou win, they beat MSU but had some issues.  And they beat a horrible Florida team and a mediocre Arkansas team.   Can someone please tell me why they should be favored to beat LSU next week?

 

 

[TexasGolf 4856]

17 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

Some of my delusional aggy friends think they have a good chance to remain undefeated until they play us.    

LSU and  South Carolina are possible loses and in fact I say probable.   Carolina has actually been playing good ball and probably should’ve beat Bama last week.

Auburn?   Can’t put my finger on them other than they lost to OU, but came within four of beating what I believe is a way overrated Mizzou team.   The same team aggy likes they pound their chests about beating a top ranked team at the time that win occurred.   

Aggy’s loss was against the media darling Norte Dame who the next week lost at home againt Northern Illinois who now sits at 4-3 and towards the bottom of the MAC standings.   Their wins were against Bowling Green who is in the MAC with season record of 3-4 and that win was close won and FCS McNeese.  Other than the above noted Mizzou win, they beat MSU but had some issues.  And they beat a horrible Florida team and a mediocre Arkansas team.   Can someone please tell me why they should be favored to beat LSU next week?

 

 

Cocks are off this week and can extra prep for aggy 

[Gen. Applewhite 226]

I think A&M beating LSU this weekend would put us back in the driver's seat, but I don't know if I can root for that in good conscience.

[Hank_Hill 18486]

9 hours ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

How do you classify those who chunk potentially lethal objects onto the field?

Shut up bitch

[msucolt45 3989]

We have to “right ourselves” this week prior to thinking playoff positioning. Vandy ain’t the “Hey let’s go to Nashville for a Fall weekend” like it used to be!

Hook’em!!!

[horn009 139]

Win out and we're in. 

[Hank_Hill 18486]

9 minutes ago, Gen. Applewhite said:

I think A&M beating LSU this weekend would put us back in the driver's seat, but I don't know if I can root for that in good conscience.

A&M loses this one convincingly with Nah Bruh at the helm.

[msucolt45 3989]

I think A&M beating LSU this weekend would put us back in the driver's seat, but I don't know if I can root for that in good conscience.

aggy isn’t beating LSU. aggy best win is a mediocre Missouri team.

Hook’em!!!

[Funk Doctor Spock 11920]

Just win out and make the CFP. Don't care about conference championship. CFP is where we aspire to be, not Atlanta. 

[ATXbronco 4060]

https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb

 

In the screenshot, I chose the highest ranked teams to win their games over the rest of the season.

 

Based on those results, here's how the SEC standings would look going into the SEC championship game.

 

Quoted text:

SEC Standings

 

1. Georgia (7 - 1) Above Texas and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).

2. Texas (7 - 1) With Texas A&M, below Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906). Above Texas A&M based on head-to-head record (1-0).

3. Texas A&M (7 - 1) With Texas, below Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4219). Below Texas based on head-to-head record (0-1).

4. LSU (6 - 2) With Missouri and Tennessee, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0). With Missouri, above Tennessee based on winning percentage against #10 teams all played one time (1-0). Above Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).

5. Missouri (6 - 2) With LSU and Tennessee, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0). With LSU, above Tennessee based on winning percentage against #10 teams all played one time (1-0). Below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375).

6. Tennessee (6 - 2) With LSU and Missouri, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0). Below LSU and Missouri based on winning percentage against #10 teams all played one time (0-1).

7. Alabama (6 - 2) Below LSU, Missouri, and Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1).

8. Ole Miss (5 - 3)
9. Vandy (4 - 4)
10. Arkansas (3 - 5)
11. Florida (2 - 6) Above S Carolina based on conference opponent win percentage (0.6094).
12. S Carolina (2 - 6) Below Florida based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5625).
13. Oklahoma (1 - 7) Above Auburn and Kentucky based on conference opponent win percentage (0.6094).
14. Auburn (1 - 7) With Kentucky, below Oklahoma based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5469). Above Kentucky based on head-to-head record (1-0).
15. Kentucky (1 - 7) With Auburn, below Oklahoma based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5313). Below Auburn based on head-to-head record (0-1).
16. Miss St (0 - 😎

[ATXbronco 4060]

Fack!  We need to pray that Alabama beats LSU because if we flip that win and leave everything else the same, Texas is out:

 

1. LSU (7 - 1) Above Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
2. Texas A&M (7 - 1) With Georgia and Texas, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375). Above Georgia and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
3. Georgia (7 - 1) With Texas and Texas A&M, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4219). With Texas, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4219). Above Texas based on head-to-head record (1-0).
4. Texas (7 - 1) With Georgia and Texas A&M, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906). With Georgia, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906). Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).

 

Edited October 27 by ATXbronco

[Steelers Roll Left 1142]

It’s mighty easy to pencil Texas in 4-0 in remaining games, but nothing about their performances since Quinn returned against OU should make anyone feel warm and fuzzy about such predictions with road games at Pig & Aggy and a scrappy Kentucky game remaining on the schedule.  Big questions along the O-line and Quinn’s stock is falling from some perhaps “too lofty” expectations from where I’m sitting last week of October.  4-0 is possible far from guaranteed

[Slacks 6791]

On 10/20/2024 at 10:59 PM, Funk Doctor Spock said:

Just win out and make the CFP. Don't care about conference championship. CFP is where we aspire to be, not Atlanta. 

False. Win conference and guarantee cfp and a bye.

[Jimbob 417]

So trying to decipher, if UGA, LSU, ATM, and UT all win out (but UT>aggie) then the 4 way tie will have LSU Aggie in the CCG?

We need 2 of them to have 2 losses to make it in?  Seems like we are headed for the worst opponent win % of the 4 teams so….

[Bigbend1812 12884]

[David Dennison 18647]

On 10/20/2024 at 10:53 PM, msucolt45 said:

aggy isn’t beating LSU. aggy best win is a mediocre Missouri team.

Hook’em!!!

[alphahydro 332]

nvm.  

Edited October 27 by alphahydro
idiocy

[Hook1997 5278]

Win out and miss the SEC Championship Game and make the playoffs, I’m perfectly fine with.  Either way you get only one bye week and not playing in the Championship game you don’t have a hugely physical game vs Georgia and instead play a low seed in the first round.  

Edited October 27 by Hook1997
Lose the SEC championship game you get no bye…

[billfromlaketravis 11358]

8 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Win out and miss the SEC Championship Game and make the playoffs, I’m perfectly fine with.  Either way you get only one bye week and not playing in the Championship game you don’t have a hugely physical game vs Georgia and instead play a low seed in the first round.  

I like it, but where’s aggy in your scenario? 

Edited October 27 by billfromlaketravis

[AeroHorn 735]

The idea is to play for championships, and there are two, SEC and NC. People are being too blase about missing an opportunity for one of the two. 

[David Dennison 18647]

Just now, AeroHorn said:

The idea is to play for championships, and there are two, SEC and NC. People are being too blase about missing an opportunity for one of the two. 

Only one of them means a damn thing anymore.

[hornian 5203]

10 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Win out and miss the SEC Championship Game and make the playoffs, I’m perfectly fine with.  Either way you get only one bye week and not playing in the Championship game you don’t have a hugely physical game vs Georgia and instead play a low seed in the first round.  

This is an idea I can support. Also would help the narrative of SEC Screws Texas To Make Up For BottleGate get some steam, which after this weekend I can get behind. 

[alphahydro 332]

Maybe someone can read the regulations in more detail, but assuming there is a 4-way 7-1 tie, it seems to me the LSU/A&M or Texas/GA championship game depends on how you apply the tiebreaker rules in teh event of a multiple team tie.

You have tiebreaker rules 1- 6 (quoted below).

Method 1 - in case of a multiple team tie, you can only apply a tiebreaker rule if it resolves the tie across all tied teams.  

Method 2 - in case of a multiple team tie, if a higher-ordered rule resolves a tie between two teams, that rule will sort the two teams in question. 

Method 1 - Rules 1, 2, and 3 don't resolve the tie across all four tied teams, so you go to tiebreaker 4 and apply it to all 4 tied teams at once.   LSU and A&M go to Conf. Championship.

Method 2 - GA cannot be below Texas, and Texas cannot be below A&M due to rule 1.  Texas cannot be below LSU due to rule 3.  Therefore, you do not need to apply rule 4. 

The word "among" here is probably ambiguous w/r/t whether Method 1 or 2 is correct, but the regs might clear it up.  

I suspect Method 1 is what the SEC has in mind, but it leads to weird results. 

Imagine Texas, GA, and LSU have 1 loss.  Imagine GA crushes rest of season and TX and LSU limp to close wins.  Further imagine GA opps have the worst record by a small margin.

GA beats Texas soundly at home and sits out.  LSU's loss is a big loss against a team Texas beat, but they also go in ahead of GA. 

Anyway, my "math" could be wrong here, but you get my point. 

 

 

 

Quote

 

RULES

1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams

2. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams

3. Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent in the Conference standings, and proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams

4. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams

5. Capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams

6. Random draw of the tied teams

 

[MuellerHorn 4187]

Texas really needs LSU to lose to Alabama. If that happens, Texas is likely in the playoffs, even with two losses (buffer if Texas loses another) and missing the SEC Championship Game.

Obviously, win out in the regular season and a playoff appearance is likely guaranteed.

[David Dennison 18647]

1 minute ago, MuellerHorn said:

Texas really needs LSU to lose to Alabama. If that happens, Texas is likely in the playoffs, even with two losses (buffer if Texas loses another) and missing the SEC Championship Game.

Obviously, win out in the regular season and a playoff appearance is likely guaranteed.

Texas will, in all likelihood, be in the playoff with two losses no matter what happens.

Edited October 27 by David Dennison

[MuellerHorn 4187]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Texas will, in all likelihood, be in the playoff with two losses no matter what happens.

This should be the case. The only two-loss scenarios that are realistic are:

1. Two regular season losses, miss the SEC Championship Game. If LSU has three losses, Texas is likely in as the third or fourth SEC team, especially if the second loss is at top-10 A&M and they finish 11-1 in the regular season.
2. One regular season loss, lose to UGA in the SEC Championship Game. Even if it's another beating, Texas gets in as SEC #2.

I don't think there's a realistic scenario now where Texas loses two regular season games, somehow still plays for the SEC Title, and losses that. I guess it's mathematically possible, but not at all likely.

Either way, Texas fans should be rooting for UGA and Vandy to each knock off Tennessee, and for Alabama, Florida, and/or Vandy to beat LSU.

Likewise, it's a given we want anyone (especially S Carolina) to beat A&M, so Texas controls their own destiny in that game.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21781]

40 minutes ago, alphahydro said:

Maybe someone can read the regulations in more detail, but assuming there is a 4-way 7-1 tie, it seems to me the LSU/A&M or Texas/GA championship game depends on how you apply the tiebreaker rules in teh event of a multiple team tie.

You have tiebreaker rules 1- 6 (quoted below).

Method 1 - in case of a multiple team tie, you can only apply a tiebreaker rule if it resolves the tie across all tied teams.  

Method 2 - in case of a multiple team tie, if a higher-ordered rule resolves a tie between two teams, that rule will sort the two teams in question. 

Method 1 - Rules 1, 2, and 3 don't resolve the tie across all four tied teams, so you go to tiebreaker 4 and apply it to all 4 tied teams at once.   LSU and A&M go to Conf. Championship.

Method 2 - GA cannot be below Texas, and Texas cannot be below A&M due to rule 1.  Texas cannot be below LSU due to rule 3.  Therefore, you do not need to apply rule 4. 

The word "among" here is probably ambiguous w/r/t whether Method 1 or 2 is correct, but the regs might clear it up.  

I suspect Method 1 is what the SEC has in mind, but it leads to weird results. 

Imagine Texas, GA, and LSU have 1 loss.  Imagine GA crushes rest of season and TX and LSU limp to close wins.  Further imagine GA opps have the worst record by a small margin.

GA beats Texas soundly at home and sits out.  LSU's loss is a big loss against a team Texas beat, but they also go in ahead of GA. 

Anyway, my "math" could be wrong here, but you get my point. 

 

 

 

If you go to the detailed descriptions provided by the SEC it is clear that anytime a tiebreaker leaves three or more teams tied above one or more teams from the original tied group the the lower teams are eliminated and the remaining teams revert back to the first tiebreaker. 

[Sgt Hulk 13643]

aggy is winning all their games leading up to us.  They have a charmin soft schedule.  The way we played yesterday. aggy will beat us.  Sark will have to unfuck this offense in a hurry our defense is saving our asses but the short fields are gonna hurt

UGa is also winning out tennesse is butt hole. 

[Funk Doctor Spock 11920]

3 hours ago, Slacks said:

False. Win conference and guarantee cfp and a bye.

Agreed. But I don't see us winning the conference with the way we're playing. At this point I'll just take a berth in the CFP. Quinn has to re-wire himself (I don't see that happening), or our defense is gonna have to carry us.