SEC Championship Game - Scenarios?

[utee94 15668]

Well when Army beats Navy in the first one but then Navy beats Army in the second one, they will have both proven themselves worthy and will certainly both be included.

[ChickenSandwich 9740]

48 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Go back and look at the results leading up to Tech.

Correct.  

The offense was shit/average at best prior to the last two games of the reg season against Texas Tech and Ok St in the Big 12 title game.  Something clicked and we were a different offense.  Washington simply reverted us back to our normal play on the season.

We look the same as we did last season prior to those two games.

 

 

1	Sep 2, 2023	3:30 PM	Sat	(11) Texas		Rice	American	W	37	10	1	0	W 1
2	Sep 9, 2023	7:00 PM	Sat	(11) Texas	@	(3) Alabama	SEC	W	34	24	2	0	W 2
3	Sep 16, 2023	8:00 PM	Sat	(4) Texas		Wyoming	MWC	W	31	10	3	0	W 3
4	Sep 23, 2023	7:30 PM	Sat	(3) Texas	@	Baylor	Big 12	W	38	6	4	0	W 4
5	Sep 30, 2023	3:30 PM	Sat	(3) Texas		(24) Kansas	Big 12	W	40	14	5	0	W 5
6	Oct 7, 2023	12:00 PM	Sat	(3) Texas	N	(12) Oklahoma	Big 12	L	30	34	5	1	L 1
7	Oct 21, 2023	4:00 PM	Sat	(8) Texas	@	Houston	Big 12	W	31	24	6	1	W 1
8	Oct 28, 2023	3:30 PM	Sat	(7) Texas		BYU	Big 12	W	35	6	7	1	W 2
9	Nov 4, 2023	12:00 PM	Sat	(7) Texas		(25) Kansas State	Big 12	W	33	30	8	1	W 3
10	Nov 11, 2023	7:30 PM	Sat	(7) Texas	@	Texas Christian	Big 12	W	29	26	9	1	W 4
11	Nov 18, 2023	8:00 PM	Sat	(7) Texas	@	Iowa State	Big 12	W	26	16	10	1	W 5
12	Nov 24, 2023	7:30 PM	Fri	(7) Texas		Texas Tech	Big 12	W	57	7	11	1	W 6
13	Dec 2, 2023	12:00 PM	Sat	(7) Texas	N	(19) Oklahoma State	Big 12	W	49	21	12	1	W 7

Edited Monday at 06:14 PM by ChickenSandwich

[ztejas 42730]

Just now, ChickenSandwich said:

We look the same as we did last season prior to those two games.

Wrong. 

The D is better.

[n64ra 1068]

On 10/27/2024 at 11:02 AM, ATXbronco said:

https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb

This is fun to play around with, and the menu allows you to test out the other conferences too.

Tiebreaker five is interesting "Capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams".

Capped isn't defined publicly so the SEC can do what it wants here.

[Funk Doctor Spock 11603]

3 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Wrong. 

The D is better.

I do kind of agree with this because of our secondary, but our front 4 are pretty meh. Edge is much better, too. It's just the front 4 that needs a lot of work. But that's what you get for taking 3-4 in the portal because Bo Davis refused to recruit solid guys, sans Alex January. Maybe Melvin Hills if he takes a step forward after his RS. 

[TexArcher 36896]

2 hours ago, field said:

Technically we'd need to be in the top 11 because the G5 will knock out #12 (assuming the G5 team isn't in the top 12, which is unlikely).

The first rankings come out next Tuesday.  Let's hope we're #5 in there. 

Good point.

If we're 10-2, and both losses are to top 10 teams, we'll be in.  I'd bet a very large amount of money on it.

But let's just win out anyway, yeah?

[Hagbard Celine 10497]

this thread title needs to change to "playoff/ccg scenarios" because both are being discussed

[hornbri 1345]

1 hour ago, JBJ said:

ACC - Miami, Pitt

B1G- Oregon, Indiana, Ohio St, Penn St

B12 - BYU, Iowa State

G5 - Army/Boise State

Ind - Notre Dame

That's 10 teams, so it's actually pretty easy to picture.  It's not great that 2 of the 5 remaining SEC teams have non-conf losses.

Clemson, Miami, SMU can all go undefeated in the ACC and don’t play each other (SMU is just funny to me)

Indiana, Oregon, and Penn State can do the same thing

It is pretty easy to imagine a scenario where the SEC gets 2 or 3 teams in. 

Edited Monday at 06:35 PM by hornbri

[Hank_Hill 17542]

1 hour ago, Guadaloopy said:

There are plenty of opportunities for us to step on our own dicks before aggy, so let's worry about those before focusing on those goobs and playoff scenarios.  I will lose my shit if we drop another game to Arky to make it a 3-game losing streak against them.

What we talk about here doesn’t matter.

[TexArcher 36896]

9 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

What we talk about here doesn’t matter.

Surly Motto:

What's Talked About Here Doesn't Change Shit.

[Hagbard Celine 10497]

my sensei who doesn't have time to post has shared his position with me that i tend to agree with, to wit:

1. this 1st point is my addition the following, but let's assume for a second that the league is not going to let us win their trophy in our 1st year; don't argue this, just assume that even if we make the ccg we are not winning that game

2. now take out the "fix is in" position in #1; even if the fix is not in, we would be playing a top 5 team, and therefore a win is a crapshoot

3. what does this program more good right now?  a league title or a playoff win?

4. if you can have 1 and not both which do you want?

5. if we lose the ccg we are guaranteed to be playing 6 or 7 days later, and possibly on the road

6. if we win out but miss the ccg we are 5th or 6th, have a bye week, and host a playoff game

the point of all of this is:

fix the fucking offense

win the fuck out

let the chips fall

pig and aggy both smell blood

time for sark to earn his salary

same for quinn

[MonkeyDoughnut 9944]

On 10/27/2024 at 11:08 AM, ATXbronco said:

Fack!  We need to pray that Alabama beats LSU because if we flip that win and leave everything else the same, Texas is out:

 

1. LSU (7 - 1) Above Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
2. Texas A&M (7 - 1) With Georgia and Texas, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375). Above Georgia and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
3. Georgia (7 - 1) With Texas and Texas A&M, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4219). With Texas, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4219). Above Texas based on head-to-head record (1-0).
4. Texas (7 - 1) With Georgia and Texas A&M, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906). With Georgia, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3906). Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).

 

 

On 10/27/2024 at 1:59 PM, alphahydro said:

Maybe someone can read the regulations in more detail, but assuming there is a 4-way 7-1 tie, it seems to me the LSU/A&M or Texas/GA championship game depends on how you apply the tiebreaker rules in teh event of a multiple team tie.

You have tiebreaker rules 1- 6 (quoted below).

Method 1 - in case of a multiple team tie, you can only apply a tiebreaker rule if it resolves the tie across all tied teams.  

Method 2 - in case of a multiple team tie, if a higher-ordered rule resolves a tie between two teams, that rule will sort the two teams in question. 

Method 1 - Rules 1, 2, and 3 don't resolve the tie across all four tied teams, so you go to tiebreaker 4 and apply it to all 4 tied teams at once.   LSU and A&M go to Conf. Championship.

Method 2 - GA cannot be below Texas, and Texas cannot be below A&M due to rule 1.  Texas cannot be below LSU due to rule 3.  Therefore, you do not need to apply rule 4. 

The word "among" here is probably ambiguous w/r/t whether Method 1 or 2 is correct, but the regs might clear it up.  

I suspect Method 1 is what the SEC has in mind, but it leads to weird results. 

Imagine Texas, GA, and LSU have 1 loss.  Imagine GA crushes rest of season and TX and LSU limp to close wins.  Further imagine GA opps have the worst record by a small margin.

GA beats Texas soundly at home and sits out.  LSU's loss is a big loss against a team Texas beat, but they also go in ahead of GA. 

Anyway, my "math" could be wrong here, but you get my point. 

 

 

 

Combining these, I thought in the case of 4 way tie of LSU, A&M, Georgia and Texas at 7-1 the step 1: Head to Head among teams would move Georgia on and drop LSU out??

Head to head records would be: LSU 0-1, A&M / TEX 1-1 and Georgia 1-0

That would leave 2 teams still tied A&M and Texas so would move to 2-tied team method where Texas would go seeing that they would have beaten A&M.

Go CCG would be Georgia v Texas rematch.

 

[Slacks 6663]

3 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Go back and look at the results leading up to Tech.

So, what you're saying is, we can play better and win the conference again. I agree.

[Slacks 6663]

1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

my sensei who doesn't have time to post has shared his position with me that i tend to agree with, to wit:

1. this 1st point is my addition the following, but let's assume for a second that the league is not going to let us win their trophy in our 1st year; don't argue this, just assume that even if we make the ccg we are not winning that game

2. now take out the "fix is in" position in #1; even if the fix is not in, we would be playing a top 5 team, and therefore a win is a crapshoot

3. what does this program more good right now?  a league title or a playoff win?

4. if you can have 1 and not both which do you want?

5. if we lose the ccg we are guaranteed to be playing 6 or 7 days later, and possibly on the road

6. if we win out but miss the ccg we are 5th or 6th, have a bye week, and host a playoff game

the point of all of this is:

fix the fucking offense

win the fuck out

let the chips fall

pig and aggy both smell blood

time for sark to earn his salary

same for quinn

For #4, having one but not both is only probable in one scenario. while it it is *possible* the SEC champion does not get into the playoff, it is not *probable*. i'll take my chances with winning the SEC crown and not getting in.

[Funk Doctor Spock 11603]

2 hours ago, hornbri said:

Clemson, Miami, SMU can all go undefeated in the ACC and don’t play each other (SMU is just funny to me)

Indiana, Oregon, and Penn State can do the same thing

It is pretty easy to imagine a scenario where the SEC gets 2 or 3 teams in. 

I would honestly take Indiana over both Oregon and Penn St right now. They're playing at a high level, and their coach doesn't fuck around. The Oregon/Indiana game would be fun to watch. 

[Funk Doctor Spock 11603]

1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

my sensei who doesn't have time to post has shared his position with me that i tend to agree with, to wit:

1. this 1st point is my addition the following, but let's assume for a second that the league is not going to let us win their trophy in our 1st year; don't argue this, just assume that even if we make the ccg we are not winning that game

2. now take out the "fix is in" position in #1; even if the fix is not in, we would be playing a top 5 team, and therefore a win is a crapshoot

3. what does this program more good right now?  a league title or a playoff win?

4. if you can have 1 and not both which do you want?

5. if we lose the ccg we are guaranteed to be playing 6 or 7 days later, and possibly on the road

6. if we win out but miss the ccg we are 5th or 6th, have a bye week, and host a playoff game

the point of all of this is:

fix the fucking offense

win the fuck out

let the chips fall

pig and aggy both smell blood

time for sark to earn his salary

same for quinn

Right now, I wouldn't count on either Quinn or Sark, unless Bond is back to open up the offense. Our defense has basically carried us all the way since Quinn got injured, and ou sucks, so I don't really count that game. 

IF Bond is back, I expect to win. Like Mitchell, he's a playmaker who will scare defenses no matter where he is on the field, which will help get others involved while the opposing team(s) focus on Bond. It'll give Wisner and Blue time to make a big run, Gibson to move the pile forward, get Moore, Wingo, and Helm open. Our running game would benefit so much better. Just my.thouhts. 

Edited Monday at 08:51 PM by Funk Doctor Spock

[alphahydro 332]

53 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

 

Combining these, I thought in the case of 4 way tie of LSU, A&M, Georgia and Texas at 7-1 the step 1: Head to Head among teams would move Georgia on and drop LSU out??

Head to head records would be: LSU 0-1, A&M / TEX 1-1 and Georgia 1-0

That would leave 2 teams still tied A&M and Texas so would move to 2-tied team method where Texas would go seeing that they would have beaten A&M.

Go CCG would be Georgia v Texas rematch.

 

yeah, i think the exact protocol for applying the rules isn't clear (the rules, as stated, are open to a couple different interpretations), so you have to go study the examples they post (which i haven't done, lol).   

i suspect the SEC's examples don't cover every single scenario. 

could be hilarious if

• GA steamrolls to top 2/3 finish
• 3 or 4 way tie that is not addressed explicitly in the examples
• GA gets left out if you apply the rules one way but not another. 

there was similar weirdness with the Big XII tiebreaker rules.  IIRC, last season someone in the media was applying the rules in a way that made no sense if you studied them, but it turned out not to matter. 

[The Ace of Aces 4945]

14 minutes ago, Funk Doctor Spock said:

I would honestly take Indiana over both Oregon and Penn St right now. They're playing at a high level, and their coach doesn't fuck around. The Oregon/Indiana game would be fun to watch. 

Oregon is the best team on America. Indiana is good but Oregon is next level. 

[Funk Doctor Spock 11603]

1 minute ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Oregon is the best team on America. Indiana is good but Oregon is next level. 

I agree, but so were we until we ran into a crazy buzz saw. Indiana is playing at a high level and they would be even more amped.tp take.down Oregon. Oregon obviously had the talent advantage, but that can only take you far.when the team across from from you.wants nothing more than to ruin your season..

Indiana is not messing around with their coach. He's legit. He'll get poached this off-season, imo

.

[David Dennison 17591]

18 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Oregon is the best team on America. Indiana is good but Oregon is next level. 

We could beat Oregon.

[UTexasFight 9281]

1 hour ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

 

Combining these, I thought in the case of 4 way tie of LSU, A&M, Georgia and Texas at 7-1 the step 1: Head to Head among teams would move Georgia on and drop LSU out??

Head to head records would be: LSU 0-1, A&M / TEX 1-1 and Georgia 1-0

That would leave 2 teams still tied A&M and Texas so would move to 2-tied team method where Texas would go seeing that they would have beaten A&M.

Go CCG would be Georgia v Texas rematch.

 

No. the tiebreaker in your scenario falls to #4: opponents winning percentage.

You can only use H2H in this situation (4 team tie) if:

-they all played each other (true round robin)

OR

-one team beat the other 3. they’d move on by having scoreboard over everyone and you’d start over on the tiebreaker with the remaining 3 for the 2nd spot

OR

-one team lost to the other 3. they’d be removed and you’d start over on the tiebreaker with the remaining 3.

 

which (taking off aggy hate glasses) makes sense. Why should UGA—1-0 against the tied teams—get to advance over A&M—1-1 against the tied teams—just because A&M had to face two of the T-1 teams in the league instead of 1?

 

 

[JBJ 3591]

4 hours ago, ztejas said:

Go put a bunch of money on it and circle back to me. 

SEC will get 4 in. 

Odds are good the SEC doesn't even have 4 teams with less than 3 losses.  It's quite literally one upset away and there are a lot of opportunities.

Edited Monday at 10:07 PM by JBJ

[Zeus 5861]

3 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

What we talk about here doesn’t matter.

What starts here changes the world 

[Funk Doctor Spock 11603]

49 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

We could beat Oregon.

You think? With how our QB situation is? Gabriel is a baller. 

[Guadaloopy 10732]

50 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

We could beat Oregon.

[hornbri 1345]

2 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

my sensei who doesn't have time to post has shared his position with me that i tend to agree with, to wit:

1. this 1st point is my addition the following, but let's assume for a second that the league is not going to let us win their trophy in our 1st year; don't argue this, just assume that even if we make the ccg we are not winning that game

2. now take out the "fix is in" position in #1; even if the fix is not in, we would be playing a top 5 team, and therefore a win is a crapshoot

3. what does this program more good right now?  a league title or a playoff win?

4. if you can have 1 and not both which do you want?

5. if we lose the ccg we are guaranteed to be playing 6 or 7 days later, and possibly on the road

6. if we win out but miss the ccg we are 5th or 6th, have a bye week, and host a playoff game

the point of all of this is:

fix the fucking offense

win the fuck out

let the chips fall

pig and aggy both smell blood

time for sark to earn his salary

same for quinn

To your point. In the event of a 3 way tie, the “2nd place” SEC team, the loser of the championship game is likely going to be seeded lower than the team that gets left out. 

It feels weird to penalize a team for playing an extra game, and a lot of people are going to think that is unfair. 

Having said all that I want to win BOTH the SEC and the playoffs so I want to play in both.

Edited Monday at 10:13 PM by hornbri

[DaggerHorns 3026]

21 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Buncha pussies in here. We are beating aggy twice to win the SEC.

Agreed, 75% of the people that disagree with you in this thread suck dick. The other 25% are women.

[David Dennison 17591]

3 hours ago, Funk Doctor Spock said:

You think? With how our QB situation is? Gabriel is a baller. 

Yes.

[Gen. Applewhite 225]

4 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

No. the tiebreaker in your scenario falls to #4: opponents winning percentage.

You can only use H2H in this situation (4 team tie) if:

-they all played each other (true round robin)

OR

-one team beat the other 3. they’d move on by having scoreboard over everyone and you’d start over on the tiebreaker with the remaining 3 for the 2nd spot

OR

-one team lost to the other 3. they’d be removed and you’d start over on the tiebreaker with the remaining 3.

 

which (taking off aggy hate glasses) makes sense. Why should UGA—1-0 against the tied teams—get to advance over A&M—1-1 against the tied teams—just because A&M had to face two of the T-1 teams in the league instead of 1?

 

 

This. I was wrong on this in the lsu/a&m game thread. It seems clear from the sec hypotheticals that in the event of a 3+ team tie, a tiebreaker isn’t used unless it resolves among all teams. In the scenarios where 3+ teams finish 7-1 it’s going to come down to conference opponent winning percentage, and weirdly the Aggies could go ahead of Texas even if we just waxed them at Kyle. It’s like the OG BCS where every oddball game down the board has some meaning. We need weird things like Arkansas over Missouri and miss st to win the egg bowl. 
 

or we just need LSU and A&M to each drop another one. Cause a four way tie between Georgia, lsu, Texas abd A&M could weirdly end up with Georgia and Texas sitting out. 

[UTexasFight 9281]

7 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

 

5. if we lose the ccg we are guaranteed to be playing 6 or 7 days later, and possibly on the road

6. if we win out but miss the ccg we are 5th or 6th, have a bye week, and host a playoff game

 

What?

We wouldn’t play the week after the ccg. We’d play 13/14 days after a loss. Or 24/25 days after a win 

miss the ccg and you have 20/21 days between games.

Other than bragging rights for winning the conference our first year, I’d be completely fine with missing the ccg. (especially if the only reason we weren’t there was because we lost the 4th or 5th tiebreaker after beating A&M.)

It’s a superfluous money grab in the day of a 12 team playoff with way more downside risk than upside potential for a team like Texas this year.

give me the 20 day break going from A&M to a home playoff game against an army-like 11 or 12 seed

Make the ccg game and win, you’re getting beat up one way or another by UGA probably. The odds of getting through that game without at least one significant starter being unavailable for the CFP is virtually zero. Good news is you have 25 days to recover. Bad news is you have 25 days off and have to come out sharp against a better playoff team (8/9 or 7/10 seed). I don’t like that idea with how shitty we’ve been in the first half most of this year.

Make the ccg game and lose. You get an off week before hosting a playoff game.
Pro: you get to host a CFP game.

con: see above re: injury odds and likely missing a key starter or two.

con: If you do manage to get through the ccg without significant injury, you get to play another game and try to get through injury-free.

Pro: we’re not governed by sec rules and maybe we can get a gd beer vendor or two walking the aisles.

 

 

give me a victory over A&M, losing a tiebreaker to make the ccg, 3 weeks off to get fully healthy, a 6 seed and home game in the playoff against a clearly inferior 11 seed allowing us to find our rhythm and then a quarterfinal matchup against Big12/ACC champ 

[Hagbard Celine 10497]

7 hours ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Go CCG would be Georgia v Texas rematch.

and the league will make sure that goes the way they want

[NeverMarryAStripper 21764]

On 10/28/2024 at 2:56 PM, MonkeyDoughnut said:

 

Combining these, I thought in the case of 4 way tie of LSU, A&M, Georgia and Texas at 7-1 the step 1: Head to Head among teams would move Georgia on and drop LSU out??

Head to head records would be: LSU 0-1, A&M / TEX 1-1 and Georgia 1-0

That would leave 2 teams still tied A&M and Texas so would move to 2-tied team method where Texas would go seeing that they would have beaten A&M.

Go CCG would be Georgia v Texas rematch.

 

Head to head only applies if all teams have played each other, or one team has lost to, or beaten all the other teams

[Earl Haffler 566]

Could we play aggy 3 times in a row?

https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football-playoff-picture-heres-what-the-12-team-bracket-looks-like-after-week-9-131416414.html

[JBJ 3591]

49 minutes ago, Earl Haffler said:

Could we play aggy 3 times in a row?

https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football-playoff-picture-heres-what-the-12-team-bracket-looks-like-after-week-9-131416414.html

No, because the winner of Game #2 would get a bye....although I guess that could be 3-in-a-row to us if we win.

Edited 16 hours ago by JBJ

[cmontexas 3200]

If LSU beats Bama, UGA beats Tennessee, and everyone else holds serve, it sets up the following scenario for Texas-Aggy

If Texas wins the SEC title game is Texas-UGA with the winner getting the bye and loser probably hosting a quarterfinal

If Aggy wins the SEC title game is Aggy-LSU, winner gets the bye and LSU maybe drops out if they dont win

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2714]

LSU is gonna get their doors blown off by Bama though.

[Zeus 5861]

On 10/28/2024 at 5:12 PM, hornbri said:

To your point. In the event of a 3 way tie, the “2nd place” SEC team, the loser of the championship game is likely going to be seeded lower than the team that gets left out. 

It feels weird to penalize a team for playing an extra game, and a lot of people are going to think that is unfair. 

Having said all that I want to win BOTH the SEC and the playoffs so I want to play in both.

They feed the teams into an algorithm and seed the teams in the way to make the most money. It’s not an itty bitty titty committee decision that’s just a front. 

[Hook1997 5230]

17 minutes ago, Zeus said:

They feed the teams into an algorithm and seed the teams in the way to make the most money. It’s not an itty bitty titty committee decision that’s just a front. 

That’s how they do their regular season scheduling too but add in protect teams with the out of division scheduling too at all costs to make the conference look better….  This conference has to figure out a round robin actual schedule at some point right?   They have literally just picked and chose non divisions matchups forever. 

[Zeus 5861]

20 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

That’s how they do their regular season scheduling too but add in protect teams with the out of division scheduling too at all costs to make the conference look better….  This conference has to figure out a round robin actual schedule at some point right?   They have literally just picked and chose non divisions matchups forever. 

Non division matchups were rotating but also there used to be a few “always” rivalry games….

LSU and Florida always played

Alabama and Tennessee

Auburn and Georgia

Nobody really gave a fuck about everyone else

It’s kind of the same now without divisions there’s just three regular rival games and rotation for the other ones.

 What that rotation is? Who the fuck knows

[Hook1997 5230]

9 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Non division matchups were rotating but also there used to be a few “always” rivalry games….

LSU and Florida always played

Alabama and Tennessee

Auburn and Georgia

Nobody really gave a fuck about everyone else

It’s kind of the same now without divisions there’s just three regular rival games and rotation for the other ones.

 What that rotation is? Who the fuck knows

So A&M and Georgia played once in 14 years why if they were rotating?  lol. The sec schedule hasn’t been rotating for years, they looked at it and said what’s best to make us look good and scheduled that every year.  Don’t expect a normal rotating schedule anytime soon from them.  It’s not very difficult with any combos of rivalries or not to figure out a rotation, they chose to pick and choose every year.  

Edited 3 hours ago by Hook1997