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SEC Championship Game - Scenarios?

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5,732

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So basically assuming Texas wins out till A&M and A&M wins out till stoopid sips along with Bama, Georgia, & Tennessee winning out minus Tennessee vs Georgia

Alabama is in if Georgia beats Tennessee
Tennessee is in if they beat Georgia
Texas/Texas A&M winner is in

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TheBryMan81

TheBryMan81 2,508

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

So basically assuming Texas wins out till A&M and A&M wins out till stoopid sips along with Bama, Georgia, & Tennessee winning out minus Tennessee vs Georgia

Alabama is in if Georgia beats Tennessee
Tennessee is in if they beat Georgia
Texas/Texas A&M winner is in

It could get crazy. 

Assume: Texas wins out, Georgia beats Tennessee.

Texas is in and our opponent could be whoever wins the tie breaker of the following two loss teams:

Alabama (Mercer, OU, Auburn) (Ls: Vandy, Tenn)

Georgia (Tenn, UMass, GT) (Ls: Bama, Ole Miss)

Tennessee (UGA, UTEP, Vandy) (Ls: Ark, UGA)

Texas A&M (NM St, Auburn, Texas) (Ls: USC, Texas)

Ole Miss ( UF, Miss St) (Ls: UK, LSU)

LSU (UF, Vandy, OU) (Ls: A&M, Bama)

Missouri (USC, Miss St, Ark) (Ls: A&M, Bama)

Edited by TheBryMan81
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Reese Bennett

Reese Bennett 3,608

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8 hours ago, TheBryMan81 said:

It could get crazy. 

Assume: Texas wins out, Georgia beats Tennessee.

Texas is in and our opponent could be whoever wins the tie breaker of the following two loss teams:

Alabama (Mercer, OU, Auburn) (Ls: Vandy, Tenn)

Georgia (Tenn, UMass, GT) (Ls: Bama, Ole Miss)

Tennessee (UGA, UTEP, Vandy) (Ls: Ark, UGA)

Texas A&M (NM St, Auburn, Texas) (Ls: USC, Texas)

Ole Miss ( UF, Miss St) (Ls: UK, LSU)

LSU (UF, Vandy, OU) (Ls: A&M, Bama)

Missouri (USC, Miss St, Ark) (Ls: A&M, Bama)

LOL, seven teams with a shot and not one of them is Oklahoma. They do not appear to be SEC-ready. Suck it Venables.

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DFW Horn

DFW Horn 6,123

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2 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

OU: 5-5 (1-5), 13th of 16 

OSU: 3-7 (0-7), 16th of 16

Life comes at you fast, Okies. 

With NIL, the Okies will probably never return to their glory days. Mama would rather have the shorter commute to Ft. Worth, Waco, and Dallas (even Lubbock?) if the money is right. I'm here for it.

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BurntEyes

BurntEyes 5,957

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11 hours ago, Zeus said:

Yeah I’d rather see us play Tennessee lol

but they will lose to Georgia next week so… it’s probably Bama

The Georgia vs Tennessee game is very much the same boat as Georgia vs Old Miss was for me. 

Those are 3 very swingy teams. I don't have confidence in either team winning but think Texas matches up better against Bama than Tennessee.. so.. there's that.

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DFW Horn

DFW Horn 6,123

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30 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Yea.  A little different when everybody can pay

0u is gonna have to sell the hell outta SEC media hype and their "player development" track record. But, that's much tougher to do when you're 1-7 in SEC play. Just ask aggy who finishes 4-4 most years.

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Nivek

Nivek 16,916

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Posted
With NIL, the Okies will probably never return to their glory days. Mama would rather have the shorter commute to Ft. Worth, Waco, and Dallas (even Lubbock?) if the money is right. I'm here for it.

Clemson and Tennessee were dead until they weren’t. Good recruiting and coaching can turn things around. OUsux will be survive, but I hope they get to life support status for the next 50 years.
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DFW Horn

DFW Horn 6,123

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10 minutes ago, Nivek said:


Clemson and Tennessee were dead until they weren’t. Good recruiting and coaching can turn things around. OUsux will be survive, but I hope they get to life support status for the next 50 years.

True, but you don't believe either or both did it without bagmen?

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SimkinsMan

SimkinsMan 4,385

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Athletic article with a good summary:

Spoiler

The SEC tiebreaker procedures are 22 pages long. There’s a reason it took so long to announce them. Anyone interested in any light reading, they’re here in all their glory. And after sifting through them again on Sunday morning, here’s the conclusion:

In one scenario, depending on one specific result next weekend, this all probably will get settled in a very tidy fashion.

 

Otherwise, there’s a good chance for chaos.

Before getting to all that, a quick reminder about why all this matters:

The Playoff impact

Yes, the expanded College Football Playoff means more than just the SEC champion will get in the field, and there’s a case to be made for wanting to avoid playing in the SEC Championship Game. But the way things are playing out, it may not be that desirable.

The ideal seed, many have argued, is No. 5 or possibly No. 6, meaning teams get the week off from the SEC championship, a first-round home game, then a quarterfinal matchup on a neutral site against the ACC or Big 12 winner, who may not be that good. All in all, that still holds.

But in case you didn’t notice, only two SEC teams — Tennessee and Texas — have one overall loss, while five others have two. Meanwhile, the Big Ten has unbeaten Oregon and Indiana and one-loss Ohio State and Penn State. The chances are dwindling that the SEC non-champions will get that coveted No. 5 seed, and the No. 6 seed may be hard to get too.

What is almost guaranteed is the SEC champion getting a first-round bye and almost certainly the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. That’s the safest route at this point. But to get there, teams need to make it to the SEC championship.

Where things stand

First, let’s focus on the standings by conference record among teams with a realistic chance. There is a mathematical possibility for the three-loss teams, but let’s not worry about them:

SEC title game contenders
Team SEC record Remaining SEC schedule
5-1
at Georgia, at Vanderbilt
5-1
at Auburn, vs. Texas
4-1
at Arkansas, vs. Kentucky, at Texas A&M
5-2
vs. Tennessee
4-2
at Oklahoma, vs. Auburn
4-2
at Florida, vs. Mississippi State
team-logo-267-50x50.pngLSU
3-2
at Florida, vs. Vandy, vs. Oklahoma
3-2
at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, vs. Arkansas

There is one clean scenario: Tennessee wins out, as do Texas A&M and Texas before their showdown, meaning there are just two one-loss teams. Tennessee would face the winner of Texas A&M-Texas. Easy, done.

But if Tennessee loses at Georgia next week, and the Volunteers are the underdogs, then we’re assured of at least one two-loss team being in the SEC championship. There’s also no guarantee Texas A&M will win at Auburn, Tennessee will win at Vanderbilt or Texas will win at Arkansas … and so on.

 

Maybe enough of the two-loss teams lose another game, making it easier to decipher. But if not, there are a few things to remember in the event three or more teams are tied for first or second place:

• The first tiebreaker is head-to-head among tied teams. But with such varied schedules, it will be hard to settle. In the not-unlikely scenario that Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee and Ole Miss tie for second place, the only team that played all of the others is Georgia, and at least in our reading of the tiebreakers, nobody would be eliminated or win the tiebreaker.

• The second tiebreaker is the record vs. common opponents for all teams involved in the tie. But again, teams need to have enough common opponents among the tied teams. So maybe that settles it, but maybe it doesn’t. The logjam of teams at the top makes it hard to say right now.

• The third tiebreaker is the record against the highest-placed common opponent among the tied teams. So for instance, if Texas wins out and is in first place, that would help Georgia but only if the teams it has played have played Texas, which Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee have not.

• So it could come down to the fourth tiebreaker, which is the combined winning percentage of all conference opponents for each team, regardless of common opponents. Schedule strength, in other words.

So as we wrap up, let’s have some fun.

8-way tie for first place

Yes, it could happen if Georgia beats Tennessee, the winner of Texas-Texas A&M loses a game before that, AND Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri all win out.

Maybe there’s a tiebreaker scenario before schedule strength that ultimately settles it. But if it goes to schedule strength, here’s how it would look, taking into account what the teams’ records would be at that point:

  • Alabama 33-31
  • LSU 31-33
  • Georgia 28-36
  • Texas A&M 28-36
  • Missouri 24-40
  • Ole Miss 23-41
  • Tennessee 22-42
  • Texas 22-42

And there you have it: Alabama and LSU get a rematch, right? Well not necessarily, this only determines the first-place team, so Alabama gets first, and then it reverts to the original tiebreakers. But that could still be LSU unless there’s a common opponent among those seven teams in there that we’re missing.

We could go on for a while. Or we could wait at least another week to see if the picture becomes a bit more clear. What we’ve seen so far indicates more upsets are coming, which could help clear up the logjam … or maybe not.

 

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Nivek

Nivek 16,916

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1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

True, but you don't believe either or both did it without bagmen?

I don't really know much about Tennessee's bag game but IIRC Clemson was buying players, but they fell off before NIL was allowed.  

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ztejas

ztejas 43,411

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15 hours ago, ATXbronco said:

Yep, we'll either see TN or AL, assuming both win out which is very likely

Christ we may or we may not. Quit jinxing our remaining slate which potentially features two serious tests. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14,148

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4 hours ago, Reese Bennett said:

LOL, seven teams with a shot and not one of them is Oklahoma. They do not appear to be SEC-ready. Suck it Venables.

Venables decision on Gabriel/Arnold is one of the fatal kind. Bird in the hand, 2 in the bush.  Gabriel was the reason they were 10-3 and not 8=5 last year.

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5,732

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18 hours ago, JBJ said:

image.png.5bb611d56103c8da32af9c3e56b7f45c.png

This is still pretty wide open compared to every other conference.  Bama/Ole Miss/Georgia rooting for chaos.

Barring major upsets it should be aggy/sip winner vs Tenn (if they beat Beavis) or Bama (if Beavis beats Tenn)

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13,225

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34 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Are you one of those butthurt about horns down people?

Who gives a shit if you prove to them it doesn't bother you then they stop.

I was just joking around.

Jesus, dude chill out. Talk about oversensitive. Call us whatever you want.

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hornbri

hornbri 1,391

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4 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

So who do we want to win the Tenn vs Georgia game, assuming Texas beats Arkansas?

There is no realistic scenarios where we make it to the SEC game with 2 losses so it doesn’t matter what other teams do anymore. 

In that case just root for the team you dislike less. 

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mdmost

mdmost 42,998

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

Are there still any scenarios where we beat the aggies and then see them again in the SEC championship? Guess Tennessee wins tonight and then loses next week?

Sure. We win out. Tennessee wins tonight. Alabama loses to either OU or Auburn. Vandy beats Tennessee. 

1. Texas (7 - 1)
2. Texas A&M (6 - 2)
With Ole Miss, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
Above Ole Miss based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).
3. Ole Miss (6 - 2)
With Texas A&M, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
Below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
4. Tennessee (6 - 2)
Below Ole Miss and Texas A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-1).
5. Alabama (5 - 3)
Above Georgia, LSU, Missouri, and S Carolina based on round-robin record due to a round-robin sweep (4-0).
6. LSU (5 - 3)
With Georgia, Missouri, and S Carolina, below Alabama based on round-robin record due to a round-robin sweep (1-1).
With S Carolina, above Georgia and Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156).
Above S Carolina based on head-to-head record (1-0).
Edited by mdmost
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SimkinsMan

SimkinsMan 4,385

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7 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Sure. We win out. Tennessee wins tonight. Alabama loses to either OU or Auburn. Vandy beats Tennessee. 

1. Texas (7 - 1)
2. Texas A&M (6 - 2)
With Ole Miss, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
Above Ole Miss based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).
3. Ole Miss (6 - 2)
With Texas A&M, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
Below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
4. Tennessee (6 - 2)
Below Ole Miss and Texas A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-1).
5. Alabama (5 - 3)
Above Georgia, LSU, Missouri, and S Carolina based on round-robin record due to a round-robin sweep (4-0).
6. LSU (5 - 3)
With Georgia, Missouri, and S Carolina, below Alabama based on round-robin record due to a round-robin sweep (1-1).
With S Carolina, above Georgia and Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156).
Above S Carolina based on head-to-head record (1-0).

So you're telling me there's a chance ... odds from Massey:

Texas wins out: 0.65

Tennessee wins tonight: 0.31

Alabama loses to OU or Auburn: 0.17

Vandy beats Tennessee: 0.09

Odds of A&M losing to Texas but making the SEC championship: 0.003 or 0.3 percent. With that said, aggy would be the worst possible team we could face in that game, so bring it on.

 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9,427

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1 hour ago, mdmost said:

Sure. We win out. Tennessee wins tonight. Alabama loses to either OU or Auburn. Vandy beats Tennessee. 

1. Texas (7 - 1)
2. Texas A&M (6 - 2)
With Ole Miss, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
Above Ole Miss based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).
3. Ole Miss (6 - 2)
With Texas A&M, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-0).
Below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
4. Tennessee (6 - 2)
Below Ole Miss and Texas A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-1).
5. Alabama (5 - 3)
Above Georgia, LSU, Missouri, and S Carolina based on round-robin record due to a round-robin sweep (4-0).
6. LSU (5 - 3)
With Georgia, Missouri, and S Carolina, below Alabama based on round-robin record due to a round-robin sweep (1-1).
With S Carolina, above Georgia and Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156).
Above S Carolina based on head-to-head record (1-0).

 this one might be more likely.

UF beats Ole Miss and Auburn or ou beats Bama 

(A&M eeks it out over UGA based on conference opponent winning %).

 

IMG_3829.png

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45,879

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3 hours ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Texas isn’t getting into the playoffs with 2 reg season losses either imo so it’s the same scenario. Other games don’t matter - we have to win out. 

I don't think that's necessarily true.  5 conf champs + ND leaves 6 spots, none of which will likelly go to ACC or B12.  So, B1G + SEC likely get 4 spots each.  You sure we wouldn't be one of those 4 teams with 2 conference losses?

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1,645

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3 hours ago, The Ace of Aces said:

Texas isn’t getting into the playoffs with 2 reg season losses either imo so it’s the same scenario. Other games don’t matter - we have to win out. 

I think this is correct. Assuming the 2nd loss is to a ranked Aggie team and not Kentucky, we would have no quality wins.   

Win our last two regular season games and we'll make the playoffs win-or-lose the CCG.  Lose to A&M and were out.

 

There are just too many teams in the mix for the 12 spots.  There 23 teams with 2 losses or less as of today.  

Army 9-0, Tulane 9-2

SMU 9-1, Clemson 8-2, Miami 9-1

BYU 9-0, Colorado 8-2, ASU 7-2, ISU 7-2, KSU 7-2

Indiana 10-0, Oregon 10-0, OSU 9-1, PSU 9-1

ND 9-1

Boise 8-1

Washington State 8-1

Texas 9-1, Tenn, 8-1, A&M 7-2, Georgia 7-2, Alabama 8-2, Ole Miss 8-2 

 

 

 

 

 

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