JBJ Model Rankings, Projections

[JBJ 3654]

The way I produce top 25 is halfway modeled after the CFP Committee rankings.  It's a combination of power and resumes, this early in the season the committee tends to lean more on eye-test than resume.  I end up matching them closer towards the end of the season.  Indiana sits on top for now, but their season is backloaded and I'm unconvinced their defense will actually hold all season.   The same can be said for Miami.  Oregon is the only team to weather a top 50 schedule thus far, but it's not exactly downhill for them yet.  Notre Dame has the easiest path, but I don't think they get in with another loss.

 

Playoff and conference projections.  Texas still sits on top of the SEC, but not by much and it's the most wide-open conference.  Model currently thinks it's Texas vs LSU in Atlanta, and those two plus Tennessee all have good position to make the playoffs.  A&M and LSU this weekend likely shakes this up and determines which other team is in the driver seat.  Georgia is the only top 10 team looking in from the outside, and that is mostly due to their schedule.  Army and Navy are the top 2 G5 teams right now, and I think that's awesome.

 

As far as projecting Texas, we are pretty equally likely to drop another as win out:

[DFW Horn 6124]

We'll drop another against a team we shouldn't if Ewers has another game like UGA.

FML

[Juicy 727]

So a bit off topic here, but since you brought up Army/Navy.... What happens if they are both undefeated going into the playoff selection? Playoff selection is 12/8 and Army/Navy is 12/14. Could the committee just say "winner of next week is the G5 selection"?

[bad_teammate 13205]

2 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

We'll drop another against a team we shouldn't if Ewers has another game like UGA.

FML

@ Vandy
Florida
@ Arkansas
Kentucky
@ A&M

We could drop two of these if Quinn doesn't return to form. I don't think we will, though.

[Ricky Butler 2723]

We could lose every game on our schedule if our players miss the bus and we miss kickoff. Something to think about. 

[Gut Wagon 8079]

This could happen. That could happen. Let's see what actually DOES happen. 

[MuellerHorn 4253]

18 minutes ago, Juicy said:

So a bit off topic here, but since you brought up Army/Navy.... What happens if they are both undefeated going into the playoff selection? Playoff selection is 12/8 and Army/Navy is 12/14. Could the committee just say "winner of next week is the G5 selection"?

They won’t both be undefeated on 12/8. The AAC Championship Game is 12/7. They’d play each other there, then play the regular season Army/Navy matchup the next week as originally scheduled. 

Edited October 21 by MuellerHorn

[GabrielsHorn 2183]

Appreciate the analyses. What games have our lowest win probabilities in your model? Guessing one is TAMU but would be interesting to see who the second team is. 
 

also, what % is it that OU misses a bowl?

[Juicy 727]

6 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

They won’t both be undefeated on 12/8. The AAC Championship Game is 12/7. They’d play each other there, then play the regular season Army/Navy matchup the next week as originally scheduled. 

That would explain it then! Thank you. I can't imagine the winner of the AAC championship would rest players for the Army/Navy game but would make for a weird dynamic

 

[MuellerHorn 4253]

5 minutes ago, Juicy said:

That would explain it then! Thank you. I can't imagine the winner of the AAC championship would rest players for the Army/Navy game but would make for a weird dynamic

 

I’m sure they wouldn’t. The G5 slot goes to the highest ranked G5 team. Even with a conference championship, a loss the following week would (likely) knock either out if Boise keeps winning; especially since Boise is already ranked ahead of both teams. 

Edited October 21 by MuellerHorn

[LonghornSean 3998]

1 minute ago, MuellerHorn said:

I’m sure they wouldn’t. The G5 slot goes to the highest ranked G5 team. Even with a conference championship, a loss the following week would (likely) knock either out if Boise keeps winning. 

The playoff field is set before the (non CCG) Army/Navy game.

[MuellerHorn 4253]

3 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

The playoff field is set before the (non CCG) Army/Navy game.

This is such a weird set up haha. If either Army/Navy is undefeated with a win over ND and a conference title, I think they get in over Boise. Sure, Boise played Oregon close, but they lost. Army or Navy would have a top-20 AP win (ND) and possibly another top-25 AP win if both are undefeated going into the conference title game. 

Edited October 21 by MuellerHorn

[Juicy 727]

8 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

I’m sure they wouldn’t. The G5 slot goes to the highest ranked G5 team. Even with a conference championship, a loss the following week would (likely) knock either out if Boise keeps winning; especially since Boise is already ranked ahead of both teams. 

But if the field is set on the 8th, they can't change it on the 14th right? Even with a loss? 

 

I would think the win over the other undefeated team would jump the Army/Navy PT 1 winner over Boise in the standings. Although Boise has that star power going for it. Especially if Navy beats ND this weekend. 

 

 

Edited October 21 by Juicy

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

1 hour ago, MuellerHorn said:

This is such a weird set up haha. If either Army/Navy is undefeated with a win over ND and a conference title, I think they get in over Boise. Sure, Boise played Oregon close, but they lost. Army or Navy would have a top-20 AP win (ND) and possibly another top-25 AP win if both are undefeated going into the conference title game. 

They need to move the game from that date to Thanksgiving weekend. Especially now they’re in the same conference. 

[EuroHorn 3265]

How would Georgia not be ahead of Texas in the Sec championship game? They would have head to head on us 

[Jimmy Two Times 797]

2 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

How would Georgia not be ahead of Texas in the Sec championship game? They would have head to head on us 

presumably because they still have Tennessee and Ole Miss and the model doesn't think a tiebreaker will be necessary. 

[JBJ 3654]

49 minutes ago, Jimmy Two Times said:

presumably because they still have Tennessee and Ole Miss and the model doesn't think a tiebreaker will be necessary. 

It's this.  UGA has a rougher road ahead.  I will say that my model doesn't address 3-way tiebreakers right now.  I have to manually put the rules in and don't bother until the likelihood of it happening makes a difference.  Right now it just splits the chance between all 3 tied teams.

[TheYoungHorn 58]

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

They need to move the game from that date to Thanksgiving weekend. Especially now they’re in the same conference. 

Nah. 

Keep it. 

If they both beat ND, and run the table in the AAC, you have a conference title at one of their home fields (which will be insane) as a playoff game play-in. 

Then you follow it up the next week at half and half, in a grudge match. 

I want this so bad for 2024. I want to see Army or Navy being able to play three meaningful games in December this year. 

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2966]

15 hours ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Appreciate the analyses. What games have our lowest win probabilities in your model? Guessing one is TAMU but would be interesting to see who the second team is. 

My bet would be Kentucky

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652]

15 hours ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Appreciate the analyses. What games have our lowest win probabilities in your model? Guessing one is TAMU but would be interesting to see who the second team is. 
 

also, what % is it that OU misses a bowl?

laugh, we all know it is arky, for the 5 millionth time in a row we are going to treat the game the same as we would Mississippi state or ucf and act all fucking pichu when we enter a buzzsaw of rednecks bred from birth for only one purpose.  to beat texas 

[BurntEyes 5998]

6 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

My bet would be Kentucky

Based on what I've seen and data Kentucky and aggie have the best defenses Texas will face through the end of the regular season. We haven't performed great against good to decent defenses for all or portions of the game. So those would be my 2 pics.

[CycleTex87 2970]

Arky and aggy will both be all out war.  Hope Sark and his staff understand that.