A 2018 College Football Postcard from the Ledge

[closetojumping 62917]

This is just a shotgun firing of some CFB related stuff that's interested me lately as I've caught up on the preseason magazines and been following various news updates from places of interest. 

Texas Experience Depth

I alluded to this somewhere previously, but Texas is looking more and more likely to start 18 upperclassmen out of the 22 possible starting positions. The last time we came anywhere close to that? 2009. I thought maybe 2014, but when you look back, Strong, for better or worse, cleaned house heading into the first year and we lost like 12 returners in the offseason. Mack Brown and Tom Herman both chose not to do that when they took the Texas job. Brown learned his lesson at North Carolina when over 20 guys were removed from the team during his first 18 months, and he subsequently went 1-10 in his first and second years and barely held on to his job. He also admits to sobbing in his car in the parking lot after a game during this run, which is nice. 

You know who's going through a housecleaning of sorts right now? Ol'Jimbo at ATM. If my count is right, they've lost at least 5 returners (Harvey, Martin, Bussey, Marchiol, someone else I can't think of right now, maybe one of the Anderson twins, it could be more than 5 for sure) since last season and they have a big class on the hook right now with limited seniors set to finish up and open spots. May he wind up in similar circumstances to Chuckles and FUPM. 

Speaking of Experience, or Lack Thereof

According to Phil Steele, do you know who returns more experience than anyone else in CFB this season? Fucking Kansas. Sort of the old "I've got good news and bad news" joke with "First, the good news is, you're returning a shit ton of your players with on-field experience. The bad news is, you're returning a shit ton of your players with on-field experience."

Georgia Southern is #2, but more relevant on the national scene is Wisconsin at #3 and Florida at #4.

Wisconsin is a weird program. They may be the greatest irrelevant program in the last 20 years of our sport. They're almost always very good. They've been to the Rose Bowl on multiple occasions since the mid-90's. They were 12-0 last year before losing a close one in the Big 10 title game. Yet no one took them seriously as a playoff contender, really at all, and no one ever does. This year, they bring back almost everyone, they have a standout running back and OL, and a manageable schedule. They play BYU in the non-con, which looked tougher when scheduled than it does now, and then they have to go to Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, and Penn State. I guess it is unlikely that they go unscathed through that, but I view them as a strong darkhorse for the playoffs.

And what about Florida? Meh. They're less talented than they should be. Mullen is an excellent coach. I assume they'll be a bowl team, but I'm not sure all of that experience is very formidable.

Flipping the experience concept and looking in the other direction, Steele has LSU at #129, TCU at #120, and Okie State at #119 in terms of on-field experience returning. That output for LSU reflects their returning players with experience before two returning starters were suspended for major offenses in the past few weeks. LB Tyler Taylor is the alleged getaway driver in a pawn store robbery and is charged with numerous felonies. See ya. Edward Ingram, the starting RG, is suspended indefinitely for unspecified reasons, but the LSU mods on their boards haven't sounded optimistic. The monster that ate Chasen Hinds, all 360 pounds of him, is now sliding in from tackle and backing up the guard positions for depth. This is a guy in need of a redshirt and a body reshaping, and this is the kind of trouble with development that a program in chaos gets itself into. LSU opens on Labor Day Sunday in Arlington against Miami, and then plays at Auburn 13 days later. 

Regarding TCU, this is the year for Texas to turn things back around against Fat Patty. We play them during a tough stretch, but I'm tired of excuses, and tired of blowouts at the hands of those sweaty fuckers. Last year's game finished with a loss at 24-7, but anyone who watched every game knows that Texas was its least competitive all year against TCU. It might as well have been 100-7. The game never felt within reach. 

Okie State is in possession of a dubious piece of scoreboard on Texas as well. The longest active winning streak at DKR is held by Okie State at 4 in a row. We have experienced a winning streak at home of that length once in the last 8 years. Embarrassing.

Speaking of Winning Streaks

Without cheating, do you know who has the longest winning streak in D-1? 

I assume a lot of folks would wind up remembering pseudo-national champion Central Florida. They're now coached by loudmouth shittalking okie, Josh Heupel. So I am cheering for them to head back into the primordial college football sludge that is the lower tier of the AAC. 

But here's one for you - which P5 team has the longest active winning streak heading into this season? 

Apparently it's Northwestern, which is fun, at 8 in a row. They open CFB this year on Thursday, 8/30, against Purdue in a conference game that should actually be fun to watch. 

Anyway, I realize that for some, more than 280 characters is kind of big deal for them to read, but I figure there's got to be a few people on here who've been thinking about stuff like this and might have some thoughts as well. 

[Tex Pete 20577]

[Tex Pete 20577]

Lots of good info and insights. I'm always amazed that there are a lot of football fans that spend more time analyzing teams and players than some of the journalists who get paid to cover the sport. That also explains a lot of the inane drivel we hear on college football Saturdays.

Honestly, I've bought several CFB magazines this year, but I just haven't mustered up the energy to read them. Something about wanting to see us win a lot of games for a change just leaves me more apathetic this summer than I usually am. Thanks for sharing.

[Red Five 41009]

I think LSU is going to be a trainwreck. Miami is going to go in without lube and they’ll finish somewhere around 5-7.

[Katfid54 8635]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Texas Experience Depth

I alluded to this somewhere previously, but Texas is looking more and more likely to start 18 upperclassmen out of the 22 possible starting positions. The last time we came anywhere close to that? 2009. I thought maybe 2014, but when you look back, Strong, for better or worse, cleaned house heading into the first year and we lost like 12 returners in the offseason. Mack Brown and Tom Herman both chose not to do that when they took the Texas job. Brown learned his lesson at North Carolina when over 20 guys were removed from the team during his first 18 months, and he subsequently went 1-10 in his first and second years and barely held on to his job. He also admits to sobbing in his car in the parking lot after a game during this run, which is nice. 



Now I'm closetohumping.

[G650 14284]

So who's balls are getting gargled.

[formermav43 4606]

Good post. Thanks.

[closetojumping 62917]

17 minutes ago, G650 said:

So who's balls are getting gargled.

I've thought about it. I'll probably come up with some other absurd title and leave that one preserved for the glory that was the Bama 2017 prediction. I'm thinking that Penn State, Notre Dame, and Clemson are all vastly overrated. The easy one to go after is PSU, but honestly, the hype around Clemson is something to behold. They lost to Syracuse. They shat themselves against Bama. They return a stud DL and defense overall, but their offense isn't just a given to show up each week. 

Might go with something like "Clemson 2018: Looking Like Your Sweaty Ass Pressed Against a Mirror" . I don't know. We've got a little time. Or hell, maybe I'll make ball gargling titles a preseason tradition.

[Huckleberry 33159]

1 hour ago, Tex Pete said:

Lots of good info and insights. I'm always amazed that there are a lot of football fans that spend more time analyzing teams and players than some of the journalists who get paid to cover the sport. That also explains a lot of the inane drivel we hear on college football Saturdays.

Honestly, I've bought several CFB magazines this year, but I just haven't mustered up the energy to read them. Something about wanting to see us win a lot of games for a change just leaves me more apathetic this summer than I usually am. Thanks for sharing.

Many people work harder at their hobby than at their job. Sports journalists are apparently not an exception. I'm sure Kirk Bohls has a wonderful collection of crochet sweaters and blankets.

[TreatyOak 16441]

 

[ClubWhatever 12159]

That guy : Watching jeopardy ::

Throat Cancer : Smoking

[Hagbard Celine 10966]

mean machine

mean machine

mean machine

[Chili dog 1787]

2 hours ago, Tex Pete said:

Lots of good info and insights. I'm always amazed that there are a lot of football fans that spend more time analyzing teams and players than some of the journalists who get paid to cover the sport. That also explains a lot of the inane drivel we hear on college football Saturdays.

Honestly, I've bought several CFB magazines this year, but I just haven't mustered up the energy to read them. Something about wanting to see us win a lot of games for a change just leaves me more apathetic this summer than I usually am. Thanks for sharing.

Most of the online “journalists” are just sports paparazzi these days. There are a few who actually accumulate facts/stats and provide insightful, objective analysis of those facts, but those are few and far between. The few good articles get buried under the piles of crap written to satisfy the unwashed masses. It takes time to scour all those sources to get substantive info. 

 

[PencilPusher 454]

4 hours ago, closetojumping said:

You know who's going through a housecleaning of sorts right now? Ol'Jimbo at ATM. If my count is right, they've lost at least 5 returners (Harvey, Martin, Bussey, Marchiol, someone else I can't think of right now, maybe one of the Anderson twins, it could be more than 5 for sure) since last season and they have a big class on the hook right now with limited seniors set to finish up and open spots. May he wind up in similar circumstances to Chuckles and FUPM. 

Agreed and something that is largely overlooked by the mouthbreathers passing for CFB journalists these days. A point to note is that Jimbo has actually never built a program per se - he was HCIW for several years at FSU so hasn't ever actually walked into a new gig and built from scratch the way that Saban, Urbs, et. al. have had to. The fact that he is making the same kind of mistakes that Charlie and UNC Mack Brown made tell me they could be in for a longer haul then they would like to admit.

4 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Speaking of Experience, or Lack Thereof

Wisconsin is a weird program. They may be the greatest irrelevant program in the last 20 years of our sport. They're almost always very good. They've been to the Rose Bowl on multiple occasions since the mid-90's. They were 12-0 last year before losing a close one in the Big 10 title game. Yet no one took them seriously as a playoff contender, really at all, and no one ever does. This year, they bring back almost everyone, they have a standout running back and OL, and a manageable schedule. They play BYU in the non-con, which looked tougher when scheduled than it does now, and then they have to go to Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, and Penn State. I guess it is unlikely that they go unscathed through that, but I view them as a strong darkhorse for the playoffs.

Flipping the experience concept and looking in the other direction, Steele has LSU at #129, TCU at #120, and Okie State at #119 in terms of on-field experience returning. That output for LSU reflects their returning players with experience before two returning starters were suspended for major offenses in the past few weeks. LB Tyler Taylor is the alleged getaway driver in a pawn store robbery and is charged with numerous felonies. See ya. Edward Ingram, the starting RG, is suspended indefinitely for unspecified reasons, but the LSU mods on their boards haven't sounded optimistic. The monster that ate Chasen Hinds, all 360 pounds of him, is now sliding in from tackle and backing up the guard positions for depth. This is a guy in need of a redshirt and a body reshaping, and this is the kind of trouble with development that a program in chaos gets itself into. LSU opens on Labor Day Sunday in Arlington against Miami, and then plays at Auburn 13 days later. 

Regarding TCU, this is the year for Texas to turn things back around against Fat Patty. We play them during a tough stretch, but I'm tired of excuses, and tired of blowouts at the hands of those sweaty fuckers. Last year's game finished with a loss at 24-7, but anyone who watched every game knows that Texas was its least competitive all year against TCU. It might as well have been 100-7. The game never felt within reach. 

Okie State is in possession of a dubious piece of scoreboard on Texas as well. The longest active winning streak at DKR is held by Okie State at 4 in a row. We have experienced a winning streak at home of that length once in the last 8 years. Embarrassing.

If a conference gets 2 teams in this year, I'm in on the Big 10. The East is loaded and Wisconsin could easily be no worse than 11-1 and will clearly win the shitshow that is the B1G West. Can envision a scenario where two teams in the B1G East finish 11-1 as well and if Wisconsin is also 11-1 (or better), both the winner of the Champ game and the team that is runner up in the East could get in (exactly what happened in the SEC last year). That is predicated on my assumption that neither the Big 12 or the Pac 12 will have anyone good enough to qualify.

Agree on TCU.....catching them early is a big plus because not only are the lacking experience, they are replacing their line plus the QB. What little I saw of Shawn Robinson last year doesn't scare me yet and him learning behind a new line isn't ideal. They honestly might look like 2017 Texas....defense having to carry an inefficient offense.  OSU is also a team folks are probably expecting too much from. The reason the AD went after Gundy's recruiting is that he sees what I see....a probable 6-6/7-5 type rebuilding year like they had in Mason Rudolph's freshman year where they pulled his shirt and rallied to a bowl game, before having 9+ wins each of the next 3 years. 

[kopp0e 1135]

4 hours ago, Red Five said:

I think LSU is going to be a trainwreck. Miami is going to go in without lube and they’ll finish somewhere around 5-7.

Ogeron might have his career at LSU come down to needing a win over Arkansas & a close loss to both Alabama & Miami, to have a shot at being in Baton Rouge next fall...

[South Austin 52658]

3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Might go with something like "Clemson 2018: Looking Like Your Sweaty Ass Pressed Against a Mirror" . I don't know. We've got a little time. Or hell, maybe I'll make ball gargling titles a preseason tradition.

Have you thought about switching from ball gargling to taint licking?

[Gil Bang 26068]

Northwestern is a really fun program to watch.  They are well-coached and have built some amazing facilities.  

 

[texifornia 57202]

Between Chasen Hinds and the entire second-team aggy line, our OL misses from the past few years aren't exactly setting the world on fire.

[closetojumping 62917]

2 hours ago, PencilPusher said:

Agreed and something that is largely overlooked by the mouthbreathers passing for CFB journalists these days. A point to note is that Jimbo has actually never built a program per se - he was HCIW for several years at FSU so hasn't ever actually walked into a new gig and built from scratch the way that Saban, Urbs, et. al. have had to. The fact that he is making the same kind of mistakes that Charlie and UNC Mack Brown made tell me they could be in for a longer haul then they would like to admit.

If a conference gets 2 teams in this year, I'm in on the Big 10. The East is loaded and Wisconsin could easily be no worse than 11-1 and will clearly win the shitshow that is the B1G West. Can envision a scenario where two teams in the B1G East finish 11-1 as well and if Wisconsin is also 11-1 (or better), both the winner of the Champ game and the team that is runner up in the East could get in (exactly what happened in the SEC last year). That is predicated on my assumption that neither the Big 12 or the Pac 12 will have anyone good enough to qualify.

Agree on TCU.....catching them early is a big plus because not only are the lacking experience, they are replacing their line plus the QB. What little I saw of Shawn Robinson last year doesn't scare me yet and him learning behind a new line isn't ideal. They honestly might look like 2017 Texas....defense having to carry an inefficient offense.  OSU is also a team folks are probably expecting too much from. The reason the AD went after Gundy's recruiting is that he sees what I see....a probable 6-6/7-5 type rebuilding year like they had in Mason Rudolph's freshman year where they pulled his shirt and rallied to a bowl game, before having 9+ wins each of the next 3 years. 

I failed to go into it, but I was thinking the same thing regarding Fisher. Inheriting vs building are totally different animals. It's going to be interesting to watch, because the attrition at ATM is trending towards that of a housecleaning, and that usually comes at a cost. Also, you better hit on your takes if you're going to trap door 15+ players in an 18 month period. We've seen the risks first hand. I don't blame a coach for this approach - it's just got risk on it and it's an interesting thing to spectate on.

I agree on the B1G. Frankly, the SEC lost a lot and outside of Bama, I'm not seeing who the contender is. They manipulate their schedules, so Georgia plays basically no one but Auburn this season, and the mighty Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, I guess, but with their weak schedule, they will have to go undefeated and win the SEC CCG to get in. Auburn? Right. Even Bama lost plenty but I am done projecting them to do anything but find their way into the playoff, whether deserved or not. I don't see anyone from the Big 12 getting in due to parity and a season of transition. I think Washington can get there, but they play a tough schedule too. The ACC is Clemson or nothing. So if enough of these conferences falter, I can easily the B1G winner and an 11 win Michigan or Wisconsin getting the nod. 

I hope you're right about Okie State. I'd love to roll them in Stillwater and set the world right in the Big 12.

[closetojumping 62917]

1 hour ago, kopp0e said:

Ogeron might have his career at LSU come down to needing a win over Arkansas & a close loss to both Alabama & Miami, to have a shot at being in Baton Rouge next fall...

My issue with Orgeron being tossed from the sidelines at LSU after this season is that the school and state are broke and Sir Edward's buyout is steep. Some booster would have to step up in a big way, and they'd have to have a clear path to the right guy to replace him and a plan to get that guy in place.

[closetojumping 62917]

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

Northwestern is a really fun program to watch.  They are well-coached and have built some amazing facilities.  

 

I was on their campus with my daughter about 6-7 years ago and I was really impressed. That would be an amazing setting for school, and I say that being familiar with Chicago winters. I wouldn't want Fitzgerald at Texas, but I think he's a great fit at NW. They're a legit candidate for 10 wins this season if they find a way to beat Notre Dame.

[texifornia 57202]

33 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I was on their campus with my daughter about 6-7 years ago and I was really impressed. That would be an amazing setting for school, and I say that being familiar with Chicago winters. I wouldn't want Fitzgerald at Texas, but I think he's a great fit at NW. They're a legit candidate for 10 wins this season if they find a way to beat Notre Dame.

I remember visiting NW when I was doing my college tours on a cloudy early-spring day and thought it was miserable. Sky, ground, trees, lake, buildings, everything was flat grey. I'd imagine when the weather's nice and there's leaves on the trees it's gorgeous though.

Edited August 10, 2018 by texifornia

[closetojumping 62917]

14 minutes ago, texifornia said:

I remember visiting NW when I was doing my college tours on a cloudy early-spring day and thought it was miserable. Sky, ground, trees, lake, buildings, everything was flat grey. I'd imagine when the weather's nice and there's leaves on the trees it's gorgeous though.

We were there in March, during a cold and overcast day. It eventually rained a bit later that day. I'm energized by that kind of weather, her probably less so. 

[kopp0e 1135]

36 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

My issue with Orgeron being tossed from the sidelines at LSU after this season is that the school and state are broke and Sir Edward's buyout is steep. Some booster would have to step up in a big way, and they'd have to have a clear path to the right guy to replace him and a plan to get that guy in place.

I agree, but I think the big donors will began to make noise this year, as it's hard to compete in a division that averages Alabama winning the national title 50% of the time in a decade...

[oldhorn2 437]

yeah....well, I just read the K State will return the best O-line in CFB so there is that....

[George Clooney 378]

4 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I've thought about it. I'll probably come up with some other absurd title and leave that one preserved for the glory that was the Bama 2017 prediction. I'm thinking that Penn State, Notre Dame, and Clemson are all vastly overrated. 

I definitely agree with you on Notre Dame. I think Wimbush and his backup, Ian Book, are both underwhelming. They lost Josh Adams at RB to the NFL and I don't like his replacements. They lost their two stud o-linemen to the NFL, and they even lost their o-line coach to the Chicago Bears. I think their defense will be solid despite losing Elko, but it won't set the world on fire. I'm thinking they finish either 7-5 or 8-4.

As for Penn State, I'm really not sure what to think. McSorley is back, they have two 5 star RBs in Miles Sanders and Ricky Slade, a solid receiving corps headlined by 5 star freshman Justin Shorter, an improved o-line with experienced returning starters, and an OC promoted from TE coach who called a nice game in the Fiesta Bowl. On the other hand, they lost a good amount of production on defense and are thin at LB. I think their DC, Brent Pry, is a very good under-the-radar DC, and he should have them playing well. The reason I'm unsure about them is because I keep having a suspicion that McSorley is overrated and might just be above average this year. As for their schedule, it's manageable because they get most of their difficult opponents at home in Happy Valley. I think they'll lose on the road to Michigan, and they'll probably lose to either tOSU or Wisconsin to finish 10-2. 

I actually think Clemson is as good as they're billed. Their defense should be a top 5 unit at the absolute minimum; Venables is too good to not field a great unit on that side of the ball with their personnel. As for their offense, I think it could sputter if they stick with Kelly Bryant to start. Their star freshman QB, Trevor Lawrence, seems like a sure-fire stud. They have great receivers and a good RB corps. However, I think their o-line is a bit underwhelming. They have the most continuity on the coaching staff year-to-year out of any FBS team. It just seems too good to fail, but I'm interested to hear why you're skeptical about them. I think they'll lose one game on their schedule, most likely on the road to either FSU or BC (who has a great RB, good o-line, and solid defense). I really don't think they'll win it all this year, but I expect them to make the playoff.

As for the CFP, I think we'll see three expected teams and maybe one team that's a bit outside of the box. There has yet to be a playoff with four teams that have all been there before, but there's also only been four iterations of it so far. I think the SEC is fairly predictable, and the winner of a Bama/Georgia SEC championship game will get in (I think Georgia wins the SEC again this year). I think Clemson wins the ACC and makes the playoff. I think the PAC-12 gets left out because one of Washington, USC, Stanford, and the dark-horses fails to separate from the pack. As for the Big 12, I really don't think there's a playoff team this year. I doubt Kyler Murray is good enough for them to go 11-1, especially with their awful defense. I don't think TCU is good enough to break through to the playoff this year either. Also, I doubt Tom Herman has the team in shape to contend for the playoff this year, but I can see a 9-3/10-2 type of season. As for the BIG, I'm high on Michigan with Shea Patterson this year. I think the winner of the Michigan/MSU game ultimately wins the conference title game over Wisconsin. If I'm making a prediction right now, my gut says Michigan wins the BIG and makes the playoff this year. Unfortunately, I think the SEC gets two teams in again this year because Alabama's lone loss will be to Georgia in the SEC championship game. Just typing that makes me sick, but I'm trying to be objective. Anyway, I can't wait to be wrong on over half of these predictions and shake my head in disbelief that I couldn't see what will happen coming as of right now.