2024 Presidential Election Prediction Thread

[BamaATL 16593]

17 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

They all still too busy bitching about how the refs tried to screw the Dawgs to get out to vote?

Not sure, but the sure as hell are whining about it on the radio, which is bizarre considering. As it relates to the conversation, a disappointing number thus far from that area is non voters from 2020 (i.e. students).  Thus far, only 1,700 have voted.  

[quigley 1562]

Kamala +1.

I'd like the margin to be bigger because a bigger win will lessen the threat of the courts meddling and lessen the risk of random right wing violence. All I care about is the W, because life gets harder if the orange idiots wins.

I think the House goes blue by a bigger margin than expected. Democratic Senators have done a GREAT job in keeping the Senate in play in a brutal cycle. Hopefully, Allred, Mucarsal-Powell or Osborn can make it 50 - 50ish.

So I'm calling Kamala 270, House Dems 235, Senate 50-50 (Osborn = 50th vote). Need the trifect and leaders who want to use their power to actually help people.

[Snake Diggity 4620]

USA: Harris +6

WI Harris +3

MI Harris +4

PA Harris +3

NC Harris +2

GA Harris +1

AZ Harris +2

NV Harris +0

FL Trump +4

TX Trump +5

This is what I think is the single most likely set of outcomes.  However I would not be at all shocked if it’s much closer.

[BamaATL 16593]

Popular vote:

Harris 83.3 Million

Trump - 71.1 Million

Electoral College - Harris easily north of 300.  

[Snake Diggity 4620]

I also think Ohio and Alaska will be within 5 points.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

21 hours ago, locodos said:

Trump claims victory election night...  I feel pretty sure this happens no matter what

As soon as PA releases one update where he's ahead, he will call for the counting to stop. He will be hearing about fraud starting to occur with the vote counts so the vote needs to stand as-is.

Thank god he doesn't have control over any troops. I wouldn't put it past him to order them to take over vote counting from the counties and state.

Edited October 23 by Nice Guy Eddie

[texastough 1129]

Here's how I see it. I've been guilty of koolaid flavored optimism in the past, but . . .

We see all this evidence of huge momentum for Harris, from anecdotal to fundraising/spending, while at the same time Trump is flailing. The polls tell us its a dead heat. But we also know the polls are seriously being gamed, both for media clicks/eyeballs and to lay the groundwork for Trump to claim the election was stolen. 

There's a lot of cautious optimism around here, but cautious is an understatement. Buttholes are clenched. In other words, we want to believe what we see with our own eyes, but the bogus polls are having their effect, even on this crowd.

So fuck it, I'm ignoring the polls. The tea leaves in early voting seem to be good signs, with women considerably outpacing men, etc.

I think she wins all the swing states plus wins or makes it very close in a state or two thought to be safe red. 319 or better.

Edited October 23 by texastough

[BLKNSTY 289]

Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia go Trump
Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin go Harris

not sure what the numbers are on that, hope I’m wrong but I have a feeling we’re looking at Dotard, Part 2 - Electric Boogaloo.

[locodos 5387]

15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Thank god he doesn't have control over any troops. 

Someone's forgotten about Meal Team 6

[Red Five 40847]

4 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia go Trump
Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin go Harris

not sure what the numbers are on that, hope I’m wrong but I have a feeling we’re looking at Dotard, Part 2 - Electric Boogaloo.

272 for Harris if my math is right. 

[wildcat09 29348]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

USA: Harris +6

WI Harris +3

MI Harris +4

PA Harris +3

NC Harris +2

GA Harris +1

AZ Harris +2

NV Harris +0

FL Trump +4

TX Trump +5

This is what I think is the single most likely set of outcomes.  However I would not be at all shocked if it’s much closer.

We're gonna be looking back at Snake Diggity as a prophet.

[bolverk 29659]

9 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia go Trump
Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin go Harris

not sure what the numbers are on that, hope I’m wrong but I have a feeling we’re looking at Dotard, Part 2 - Electric Boogaloo.

 

4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

272 for Harris if my math is right. 

Correct. Here's the implied map.

 

[hookem2010 2624]

That would be just about the most stressful win imaginable.

Edited October 23 by hookem2010

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

Correct. Here's the implied map.

 

We cannot fathom the shitshow that would occur if this is the map.

[SydneyCarton 48069]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

We cannot fathom the shitshow that would occur if this is the map.

A lot of yelling and screaming and stupid pussies not actually doing jack shit. 

[Texas Jeff 1945]

I am predicting Harris between 270-276, a razor thin margin - and I really really really hope Harris wins by much more.

The Pennsylvania winner wins the election.  Harris will lead early in Penn but Trump will pass her at some point and she will hopefully retake the lead by morning.

Edited October 24 by Texas Jeff

[hornmpa96 2618]

Harris - 292 EC

She wins North Carolina and Georgia but loses Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin.

The 3 swing state losses will be by tiny margins.

In 2028, she ends up with a Reagan 1984 type victory over Trump Jr.

[wildcat09 29348]

19 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

A lot of yelling and screaming and stupid pussies not actually doing jack shit. 

Naw, if that’s the map scotus is jumping in to try to steal this shit. That’s a nightmare scenario right there.

It ain’t happening though because we’re gonna kick the shit out of them and sweep the swing states.

[SydneyCarton 48069]

49 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Naw, if that’s the map scotus is jumping in to try to steal this shit. That’s a nightmare scenario right there.

It ain’t happening though because we’re gonna kick the shit out of them and sweep the swing states.

While I certainly agree that the supreme court entering the arena would mean the unfolding of massive chaos, I'm not sure what legal case or precedence it would take to get it in their hands. 

[BamaATL 16593]

9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

While I certainly agree that the supreme court entering the arena would mean the unfolding of massive chaos, I'm not sure what legal case or precedence it would take to get it in their hands. 

Duh, the Salem Witch Trials.  

[Red Five 40847]

[Helobious 9451]

It takes some serious mental gymnastics to think that Harris is winning Nevada & Arizona. Georgia is unlikely but at least there’s data to point to the idea that she has a chance. She has nothing in Nevada or Arizona.

[wildcat09 29348]

C'mon Helo, tell us she's got no shot at Florida.

[SydneyCarton 48069]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

This seems optimistic for you, sir. 

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

It takes some serious mental gymnastics to think that Harris is winning Nevada & Arizona. Georgia is unlikely but at least there’s data to point to the idea that she has a chance. She has nothing in Nevada or Arizona.

On what basis are you declaring you viewpoint on Arizona? Nevada has data to indicate it's finally, maybe, turning Red. 

Biden wont AZ last time, and the party has become incrasingly less popular in AZ since then, and has elected D's overwhelmingly in 2022. So what makes you say she has nothing in AZ?

[Tuco 5076]

I'm feeling like being an optimist today:  Harris 355 sweeping the swing states plus picking up Florida and Iowa, because why the fuck not. 

[Helobious 9451]

18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

This seems optimistic for you, sir. 

On what basis are you declaring you viewpoint on Arizona? Nevada has data to indicate it's finally, maybe, turning Red. 

Biden wont AZ last time, and the party has become incrasingly less popular in AZ since then, and has elected D's overwhelmingly in 2022. So what makes you say she has nothing in AZ?

Regression to mean. Trump barely won all those northern states in 2016, so it made sense why he lost them in 2020. The dems barely won Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia in 2020. It makes sense that they’d lose all 3 of those surprise wins in 2024. 

[SydneyCarton 48069]

2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Regression to mean. Trump barely won all those northern states in 2016, so it made sense why he lost them in 2020. The dems barely won Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia in 2020. It makes sense that they’d lose all 3 of those surprise wins in 2024. 

So you're just ignoring the idea that Roe Versus Wade being overturned might energize women to vote more and more aggressively? Which has been evident in every single elction since it was overturned. You don't think that MAYBE, at the least, that cancels out some of the regression to mean, considering the landscape has changed?

[Valmy77 13226]

Feeling pretty good about Georgia and Pennsylvania based on what you guys have been posting. Kamala wins those and we should be good.

We should know fairly early on how things are going but Pennsylvania took forever to count votes last time so maybe not.

[Helobious 9451]

6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So you're just ignoring the idea that Roe Versus Wade being overturned might energize women to vote more and more aggressively? Which has been evident in every single elction since it was overturned. You don't think that MAYBE, at the least, that cancels out some of the regression to mean, considering the landscape has changed?

I think people have short attention spans, and those kind of events get washed out in the noise come election time. Roe v Wade overturned last month? Dems win. I feel the same about trump getting shot at. If that happened 2 weeks ago he wins in landslide. Now he’s going to have to sweat out this win. 

[SydneyCarton 48069]

3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I think people have short attention spans, and those kind of events get washed out in the noise come election time. Roe v Wade overturned last month? Dems win. I feel the same about trump getting shot at. If that happened 2 weeks ago he wins in landslide. Now he’s going to have to sweat out this win. 

Lol at the concept that women have anything other than REAL long fucking memories. 

[Js1 85298]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Lol at the concept that women have anything other than REAL long fucking memories. 

Lol Helio is just spouting GOP talking points that women don’t care about abortion anymore. They do. They’re still pissed 

[Js1 85298]

12 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Feeling pretty good about Georgia and Pennsylvania based on what you guys have been posting. Kamala wins those and we should be good.

We should know fairly early on how things are going but Pennsylvania took forever to count votes last time so maybe not.

Mail should only be a quarter of the votes this time instead of over half. They will count faster. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

NV will come down to 20k votes but I don’t see how anyone thinks Trump has it in the bag. Rosen is polling 5-8 points up on the GOP challenger. Can there be many Trump-Rosen voters? Feels like a stretch to me.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

 

imo

[Dbeasy 15042]

I‘m pessimistic. Hope this is wrong. Can’t believe I’m close to Helo. That’s terrible. 
 

[hookem2010 2624]

New Mexico, really?

[SydneyCarton 48069]

3 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

New Mexico, really?

Yeah, Gonna need some justification there.

NOT ALL STUPID FUCKING DESERTS ARE A MONOLITH

[aggie08 21492]

New Mexico's not even considered a swing state, my dude.

[Dbeasy 15042]

7 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

New Mexico, really?

Oops. 

[Red Five 40847]

"Good news Mrs. Vice President. You have won every blue wall state, which is what you needed to win the election. However, there is a bit of bad news...."

[aggie08 21492]

3 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Oops. 

Swap New Mexico and Wisconsin is you want to keep your pessimism for the day.

Lot of white uneducated men.

Edited October 24 by aggie08

[LurkingHorn 1066]

Too many people over thinking this IMO. If Harris wins the 3 blue wall states, this is over very quickly. Beyond that, she still has a very good chance to keep Georgia and Nevada. Meanwhile, if Trump loses a single blue wall state, his path is extremely narrow to get to 270. 

[Dbeasy 15042]

Feel way better now. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

patriotic

 

Edited October 24 by BehoId, The Underminer!

[Reynolds Woodcock 4739]

Sadly I think Trump wins it with something in the 285 range. I think he’ll flip back Georgia, flip at least one of the blue wall states (not all 3), and one or both of NV or AZ.

Old, white, male Joe Biden and the pandemic were the perfect recipe in 2020, but the shit bags have short memories and a distaste for female leadership. The next 4 years are going to suck.

[texasdago 7569]

I don't know... all the data coming out of GA tells me women are going to save our ass there.

AND IF WE NEED A REMINDER... (https://time.com/7018665/abortion-ballot-measures-2024/)

Arizona

In Arizona, voters will weigh in on citizen-led initiative Proposition 139. A “yes” vote would establish “a fundamental right to abortion under Arizona’s constitution.” It would allow abortions until a fetus could survive outside the womb—usually around the 24th week of pregnancy—but would include exceptions after that in situations where abortion is necessary to protect the life or health of the pregnant person. A “no” vote would reject this change, leaving the current state law in place.

Arizona currently prohibits abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for medical emergencies. If the ballot measure passes—which would require a simple majority—that would effectively upend the state’s current restriction.

Arizona is a key battleground state, and experts have said that having abortion on the ballot in November could have implications for the tumultuous presidential election because it’s an issue that mobilizes voters—since the fall of Roe, especially ones who support Democratic candidates.

Nevada

Nevada voters will decide whether to approve or reject the citizen-led initiative Question 6 in November. A “yes” vote would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, allowing abortions up until fetal viability, with exceptions after that when necessary to protect the health or life of the pregnant person. A “no” vote would reject this change. 

State law already allows for abortions up to the 24th week of pregnancy, and protects people seeking or providing abortions in Nevada from restrictions in other states.

Even if the measure passes in November—and it would need a simple majority to do so—voters would need to approve it again in 2026 in order for the state constitution to be amended.

[BamaATL 16593]

4 minutes ago, texasdago said:

I don't know... all the data coming out of GA tells me women are going to save our ass there.

AND IF WE NEED A REMINDER... (https://time.com/7018665/abortion-ballot-measures-2024/)

Arizona

In Arizona, voters will weigh in on citizen-led initiative Proposition 139. A “yes” vote would establish “a fundamental right to abortion under Arizona’s constitution.” It would allow abortions until a fetus could survive outside the womb—usually around the 24th week of pregnancy—but would include exceptions after that in situations where abortion is necessary to protect the life or health of the pregnant person. A “no” vote would reject this change, leaving the current state law in place.

Arizona currently prohibits abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for medical emergencies. If the ballot measure passes—which would require a simple majority—that would effectively upend the state’s current restriction.

Arizona is a key battleground state, and experts have said that having abortion on the ballot in November could have implications for the tumultuous presidential election because it’s an issue that mobilizes voters—since the fall of Roe, especially ones who support Democratic candidates.

Nevada

Nevada voters will decide whether to approve or reject the citizen-led initiative Question 6 in November. A “yes” vote would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, allowing abortions up until fetal viability, with exceptions after that when necessary to protect the health or life of the pregnant person. A “no” vote would reject this change. 

State law already allows for abortions up to the 24th week of pregnancy, and protects people seeking or providing abortions in Nevada from restrictions in other states.

Even if the measure passes in November—and it would need a simple majority to do so—voters would need to approve it again in 2026 in order for the state constitution to be amended.

I'm biased given my viewpoint and pretty much an optimist.  I'm hesitant to put out a number right now on the totals because even I find it too ridiculous to fathom when it comes to Georgia, but I'll say this, right now, the math points to a blowout here (relative terms).  Things can obviously change, and they likely will, but Georgia looks incredibly good, and women are at the forefront.  

I'm interesting if this is tracking across the board, pretty much every state we are getting info on.  I.E., are women outpacing men even more so than the past, because if so, it's extremely telling.  

[Tuco 5076]

6 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Old, white, male Joe Biden and the pandemic were the perfect recipe in 2020, but the shit bags have short memories and a distaste for female leadership. The next 4 years are going to suck.

I'm not convinced the pandemic helped Joe (other than depressing the economy).  While I think people didn't like Trump's handling of it, by November they were ready to lose the masks and start going to bars. 

[Valmy77 13226]

The Pandemic helped old man Biden by keeping him from having to travel the country and hold rallies.

Yeah the pandemic was pretty much over, at least in its most annoying forms, by November. I didn't end up getting Covid until 2022 fortunately.

[Scheiss Meister 8407]

I know that Biden didn't get out and about to campaign as much as usual, but I think that helped highlight how bad trump was.  I had a co-worker who couldn't understand how Biden could win while trump had rallies and parades.  I told him that it was because trump sucked so bad that Biden didn't even need to campaign.