2024 Presidential Election Prediction Thread

[aggie08 21495]

12 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I'm biased given my viewpoint and pretty much an optimist.  I'm hesitant to put out a number right now on the totals because even I find it too ridiculous to fathom when it comes to Georgia, but I'll say this, right now, the math points to a blowout here (relative terms).  Things can obviously change, and they likely will, but Georgia looks incredibly good, and women are at the forefront.  

I'm interesting if this is tracking across the board, pretty much every state we are getting info on.  I.E., are women outpacing men even more so than the past, because if so, it's extremely telling.  

Anyone know the historical gender trend of early voting? Is it like shopping for Christmas? Women are finished by Black Friday; men start thinking about it on Dec 23rd?

[BamaATL 16593]

Just now, aggie08 said:

Anyone know the historical gender trend of early voting? Is it like shopping for Christmas? Women are finished by Black Friday; men start thinking about it on Dec 23rd?

I can only speak to here and recent.  in 2020 women voted at a 53.1% clip compared to men,  and right now its at 55.1% and climbing.  However, men have tended to be more of a turnout on election day itself, but not statistically in a major way (think 1 - 2%).  As we get more data back early, right now the percentage figures to grow, perhaps to as much as 57% at it's current daily rate.  If that sort of math holds, 2% sort of difference over at least 5 million votes is in the neighborhood of 100k.  Obviously, that would presume a 100% democratic vote, which isn't true.  Could it be 75k?, Maybe, it likely depends on location for me to guess at (right now, that'd be my guess, but I need more data for a final post early vote guess.  I'll have that next Thursday.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

11 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Anyone know the historical gender trend of early voting? Is it like shopping for Christmas? Women are finished by Black Friday; men start thinking about it on Dec 23rd?

Ton of great info here on 2020.

Here is Georgia 2020

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA.html

 

In-Person Early Votes by Gender

Gender	Count	Percent
Female	1,469,516	54.5
Male	1,164,784	43.2
Unknown	60,463	2.2
TOTAL	2,694,763	100.0

[sushihorn 3233]

15 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Anyone know the historical gender trend of early voting? Is it like shopping for Christmas? Women are finished by Black Friday; men start thinking about it on Dec 23rd?

Georgia EV by gender

Overall vote trends female, EV even more so. This year’s EV shows a female bias but less so than historically. This seems to be true across a wide swath of states. 

[wildcat09 29348]

43 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Sadly I think Trump wins it with something in the 285 range. I think he’ll flip back Georgia, flip at least one of the blue wall states (not all 3), and one or both of NV or AZ.

Old, white, male Joe Biden and the pandemic were the perfect recipe in 2020, but the shit bags have short memories and a distaste for female leadership. The next 4 years are going to suck.

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense given how badly he handled the pandemic, but it likely helped him electorally in 2020. 

[David Dennison 18852]

So, anyone have some post-election predictions, as in what goes down if Trump loses?

[Longhorn_Fan68 33867]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

So, anyone have some post-election predictions, as in what goes down if Trump loses?

he'll claim fraud as soon as it's clear he's lost - very likely well before election day. if things get too fucky then biden steps down and hands kamala the reins. she can direct her own inauguration from there. official acts and whatnot.

[David Dennison 18852]

Just now, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

he'll claim fraud as soon as it's clear he's lost - very likely well before election day. if things get too fucky then biden steps down and hands kamala the reins. she can direct her own inauguration from there. official acts and whatnot.

And what do all the riled up MAGA faithful do after months of being convinced there's no way Donald Trump can lose the election legitimately?

January 6 redux? Something worse?

[Longhorn_Fan68 33867]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

And what do all the riled up MAGA faithful do after months of being convinced there's no way Donald Trump can lose the election legitimately?

January 6 redux? Something worse?

no. the good guys are already in the white house. there will possibly be a feckless attempt but I expect it will be squashed at local levels and trump will continue to throw tantrums while the adults get to work

[David Dennison 18852]

Just now, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

no. the good guys are already in the white house. there will possibly be a feckless attempt but I expect it will be squashed at local levels and trump will continue to throw tantrums while the adults get to work

I hope you're right.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

9 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

he'll claim fraud as soon as it's clear he's lost - very likely well before election day. if things get too fucky then biden steps down and hands kamala the reins. she can direct her own inauguration from there. official acts and whatnot.

He will use “reports of widespread early voting cheating by Harris’ Marxist allies and illegal aliens” as a get out the vote tactic and cover for when he loses.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33867]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

He will use “reports of widespread early voting cheating by Harris’ Marxist allies and illegal aliens” as a get out the vote tactic and cover for when he loses.

whatever he does will be pathetic and won't work. Harris and Co are ready.

[SydneyCarton 48071]

22 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

So, anyone have some post-election predictions, as in what goes down if Trump loses?

 

17 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

And what do all the riled up MAGA faithful do after months of being convinced there's no way Donald Trump can lose the election legitimately?

January 6 redux? Something worse?

 

10 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I hope you're right.

 

I've said it elsewhere, but I don't think these people do shit. There isn't a central organizing structure to call them to protest. Trump won't call them to protest washington again, washington will be locked down. And no one else has the sway to get these people to show up anywhere. If Harris wins GA, I joked about a bunch of white hicks trying to Sherman Atlanta, and I love the idea of seeing what happens if they FAFO. But at the end of the day, I think they're cowards and won't do jack shit. Jan 6th was a one off, no one imagined what would happen, and the capital was ill prepared. If they did it again, people will be mowed down. And now they've had 4 years to see people end up in jail for fucking around and finding out afterwards. 

It would have to be some lone wolf shit. But look at that article in the atlantic above...I think those people are as delusional about how "ready" their kind are for a real fucking war as they are about basic fucking facts and logic from the propoganda they all ingest. Slave owners saw an existential threat to their wealth and way of life. These people don't actually have that threat hanging over their head, and most of them will fucking realize it toot sweet when they're asked to give up everything. 

[flatdawgs 1278]

wrong thread dammit

Edited October 24 by flatdawgs
dumbass

[Goredho 17397]

I can easily see where things get out of hand without much organization.  I hate contemplating it, so I'll avoid detailing the chain of events.

[Huckleberry 32851]

5 hours ago, Helobious said:

Regression to mean. Trump barely won all those northern states in 2016, so it made sense why he lost them in 2020. The dems barely won Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia in 2020. It makes sense that they’d lose all 3 of those surprise wins in 2024. 

 

5 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

So you're just ignoring the idea that Roe Versus Wade being overturned might energize women to vote more and more aggressively? Which has been evident in every single elction since it was overturned. You don't think that MAYBE, at the least, that cancels out some of the regression to mean, considering the landscape has changed?

So we're just ignoring the part where Helobious has no idea what regression to the mean is? 

[SydneyCarton 48071]

13 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

 

So we're just ignoring the part where Helobious has no idea what regression to the mean is? 

Goddamn you. Well done. 

[Helobious 9451]

45 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

 

So we're just ignoring the part where Helobious has no idea what regression to the mean is? 

What’s the term I’m looking for? Republicans lost Pennsylvania for a long time, then Trump barely won it in ‘16, so you expect it to go back to its average result (democrat win) in 2020. Sounds like regression to mean to me

[Huckleberry 32851]

It's "regression toward the mean" which may offer a hint. It also applies to random variables or results that are largely affected by randomness which election vote totals really aren't. 

And the Pennsylvania situation you're describing isn't an average, it's a historical trend. Not the same thing. Unless you think people should have expected California to vote for Bob Dole in 1996. Or for Alabama and Mississippi to go back to the Democrats after Goldwater won. There's a lot more than randomness at play in presidential elections. 

[BevoAbyss 2058]

5 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I've said it elsewhere, but I don't think these people do shit.

Unless this election is some kind of massive blowout win for Kamala, there will be trouble. And even a blowout might not be enough.

Of course, we know Trump is going to contest a loss. Any loss. 

Maybe it is because I am not religious, not patriotic, not worshipper of the military, that I see a huge problem coming. 

For Trump to attain power and impose their worldview, many in MAGA-GQP will help or enable the killing of Americans. How do we know? They have already done it. 

1. By not wearing masks, not vaxxing, and not caring when they helped kill a million Americans during a fucking deadly global pandemic.

-- Let's be clear: COVID empowered Americans to enact random violence against fellow citizens. ("Ultraviolence" in Clockwork Orange). Hospitals stacked to the rim with dead bodies. Sure, they killed a lot their own. But COVID is the lesson: They do not care if Americans die for their worldview. In fact, COVID proved that's the case.

2. The mass shooting of American school kids does not concern them enough to restrict gun access. Their guns and worldview are more important than school kids living. Or the brown people at an El Paso Walmart. 

3. They are enacting medical violence against women by restricting reproductive health care. Some have already died or will die. MAGA-GQP do not care. 

4. How would 14 million people be deported without violence?  MAGA-GQP are primed for violence. 

Repeat: They do not care who dies for their worldview, steeped in violent Christian fascism. History is clear on that.

So we are supposed to think they will mind if Americans have to die to get Trump in office and their worldview back in total power? Would we be surprised if many cops and some military will support them? We know Fox, Wall Street Journal, NY Post and other lackey media will back Trump.  

Bottom line, many in MAGA-GQP are willing for Americans to die for their worldview and world. And Trump is the Fuhrer of their world. 

What that political violence looks like, I am not sure. But it's likely coming to get their Fuhrer in power. 

Hope I'm wrong.

Edited October 25 by BevoAbyss

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I'm biased given my viewpoint and pretty much an optimist.  I'm hesitant to put out a number right now on the totals because even I find it too ridiculous to fathom when it comes to Georgia, but I'll say this, right now, the math points to a blowout here (relative terms).  Things can obviously change, and they likely will, but Georgia looks incredibly good, and women are at the forefront.  

I'm interesting if this is tracking across the board, pretty much every state we are getting info on.  I.E., are women outpacing men even more so than the past, because if so, it's extremely telling.  

If the dotard wins GA, you're getting your ass kicked.

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If the dotard wins GA, you're getting your ass kicked.

I've got experience with that.  

[StassneyHorn 6575]

I’m willing to bet there’s some Capitol police officers who are absolutely licking their chops waiting for some bullshit to erupt, vs not knowing what to do or expect cause they may have been Trump guys themselves in 20.

[SydneyCarton 48071]

53 minutes ago, BevoAbyss said:

Unless this election is some kind of massive blowout win for Kamala, there will be trouble. And even a blowout might not be enough.

Of course, we know Trump is going to contest a loss. Any loss. 

Maybe it is because I am not religious, not patriotic, not worshipper of the military, that I see a huge problem coming. 

For Trump to attain power and impose their worldview, many in MAGA-GQP will help or enable the killing of Americans. How do we know? They have already done it. 

1. By not wearing masks, not vaxxing, and not caring when they helped kill a million Americans during a fucking deadly global pandemic.

-- Let's be clear: COVID empowered Americans to enact random violence against fellow citizens. ("Ultraviolence" in Clockwork Orange). Hospitals stacked to the rim with dead bodies. Sure, they killed a lot their own. But COVID is the lesson: They do not care if Americans die for their worldview. In fact, COVID proved that's the case.

2. The mass shooting of American school kids does not concern them enough to restrict gun access. Their guns and worldview are more important than school kids living. Or the brown people at an El Paso Walmart. 

3. They are enacting medical violence against women by restricting reproductive health care. Some have already died or will die. MAGA-GQP do not care. 

4. How would 14 million people be deported without violence?  MAGA-GQP are primed for violence. 

Repeat: They do not care who dies for their worldview, steeped in violent Christian fascism. History is clear on that.

So we are supposed to think they will mind if Americans have to die to get Trump in office and their worldview back in total power? Would we be surprised if many cops and some military will support them? We know Fox, Wall Street Journal, NY Post and other lackey media will back Trump.  

Bottom line, many in MAGA-GQP are willing for Americans to die for their worldview and world. And Trump is the Fuhrer of their world. 

What that political violence looks like, I am not sure. But it's likely coming to get their Fuhrer in power. 

Hope I'm wrong.

Everything you’ve outlined is passive violence. No one is sitting there holding a bloody scalpel, watching people bleed out. It’s easy to 6th degree of separation that shit…hell, it’s not that far removed from the denial of the damages of climate change. 
 

these people BELIEVE in the 2nd Amendment. They BELIEVE being pro life is holy. 
 

that is not the same dynamic as grab a fucking gun and mow down your neighbors. Who you have known for years. Your kids have played with their kids. 
 

abstract versus reality matters. Trump only gets votes because of the abstract. 

Edited October 25 by SydneyCarton

[Brisketexan 105092]

Everything you’ve outlined is passive violence. No one is sitting there holding a bloody scalpel, watching people bleed out. It’s easy to 6th degree of separation that shit…hell, it’s not that far removed from the denial of the damages of climate change. 
 
these people BELIEVE in the 2nd Amendment. They BELIEVE being pro life is holy. 
 
that is not the same dynamic as grab a fucking gun and mow down your neighbors. Who you have known for years. Your kids have played with their kids. 
 
abstract versus reality matters. Trump only gets votes because of the abstract. 

I think we should do everything we can to encourage them to commit massive acts of violence. Flood the zone with messages about how they’re not true patriots and they are betraying the MAGA movement if they DON’T assemble, heavily armed, at x location and start shooting.

Bait the field.

And then,

[David Dennison 18852]

10 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Everything you’ve outlined is passive violence. No one is sitting there holding a bloody scalpel, watching people bleed out. It’s easy to 6th degree of separation that shit…hell, it’s not that far removed from the denial of the damages of climate change. 

these people BELIEVE in the 2nd Amendment. They BELIEVE being pro life is holy. 
 

that is not the same dynamic as grab a fucking gun and mow down your neighbors. Who you have known for years. Your kids have played with their kids. 
 

abstract versus reality matters. Trump only gets votes because of the abstract. 

Which has happened in this country, not all that long ago.

You've seen pictures.

[WBT 20561]

7 hours ago, David Dennison said:

And what do all the riled up MAGA faithful do after months of being convinced there's no way Donald Trump can lose the election legitimately?

January 6 redux? Something worse?

watch fox news and bitch on the internet

I posted it shortly after Harris got in but I'll stick with Harris 319 as my prediction.

[Satchel 6935]

Not sure where to put this, but I’m really beginning not to like the billionaire class. The Washington Post is joining the LA Times in declining to make a presidential endorsement. It’s being reported that the Harris endorsement had been prepared and was ready to go and “somebody” said no. 

[Red Five 40850]

Just pure cowardice.

[aggie08 21495]

12 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Just pure cowardice.

To appease a group of people who they'll never get a dime from. 

Well, if your not counting corporate donors and stock holders. Ah. Nevermind.

 

[wildcat09 29348]

23 hours ago, David Dennison said:

I hope you're right.

 

They must be the few exceptions to this:

 

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33867]

that's fantastic

[TwiceHorn 31445]

On 10/24/2024 at 10:57 AM, Js1 said:

Lol Helio is just spouting GOP talking points that women don’t care about abortion anymore. They do. They’re still pissed 

And, in addition to that, Roe was just the first domino to fall.  When Trump and others say it's "left to the states," that's a reminder (as if needed) of the shenanigans the Gilead states are pulling.  It's an ongoing issue.

[Snake Diggity 4620]

On 10/23/2024 at 10:01 AM, Snake Diggity said:

USA: Harris +5

WI Harris +2

MI Harris +3

PA Harris +4

NC Harris +2

GA Harris +2

AZ Harris +2

NV Harris +0

FL Trump +3

TX Trump +5

 

Revised prediction with 8 days to go.

[Slacks 6819]

On 10/22/2024 at 2:12 PM, Helobious said:

The electoral college is pretty dumb. I think it’ll be insanely close and take days to sort out before Trump wins. But the map will make it look like he won in a blowout.

I have a bad feeling about this.

I believe there will be thievery. All the shit that was said and done in the open last time was a test. No consequences means now do the shit quietly. 

Stop the Steal.

My inconsequential vote for POTUS (along with meaningful votes otherwise) was made today.

I wish I could have voted Abbott's ass off the cliff (and Mike Miles would have been tethered to him).

[Slacks 6819]

On 10/24/2024 at 8:12 AM, SydneyCarton said:

While I certainly agree that the supreme court entering the arena would mean the unfolding of massive chaos, I'm not sure what legal case or precedence it would take to get it in their hands. 

Someone will suggest the hang Chad again. That's going to do it.

[Slacks 6819]

On 10/24/2024 at 10:49 AM, Helobious said:

I think people have short attention spans, and those kind of events get washed out in the noise come election time. Roe v Wade overturned last month? Dems win. I feel the same about trump getting shot at. If that happened 2 weeks ago he wins in landslide. Now he’s going to have to sweat out this win. 

You aren't married.

[babysdaddy 2721]

I'm expecting a 2020 map except Trump flips Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. 281 to 257.

I looked at 538 averages by those 3 states and where they ended up in 2020 and then looked where the sit today.  Wildcard will be Dobbs driver.  Women/men turnout split has been 53/47 +/- historically and that needs to be 55/45 for Harris to win imo.

[wildcat09 29348]

On 10/28/2024 at 11:23 AM, Snake Diggity said:

Revised prediction with 8 days to go.

I'd probably put Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona somewhere between Harris +1 and +1.5, but otherwise this is where I'm at.

[TeeDubya 3362]

Still thinking Harris?  How does your state by state electoral college map look?

[Bullneck 19073]

@TeeDubya@immamac

I move that we rename this the "2024 Election Night and Days That Follow Official Game Thread."

I want this because I want to tell you I plan three bottles of prosecco chilled.  Not sure how much I'll drink or have to share with my wife but expect some random posts from me.  I doubt I'll be getting much work done the next day.

[immamac 42839]

No that'll be its own thread. 

[quigley 1562]

On 10/24/2024 at 10:05 PM, StassneyHorn said:

I’m willing to bet there’s some Capitol police officers who are absolutely licking their chops waiting for some bullshit to erupt, vs not knowing what to do or expect cause they may have been Trump guys themselves in 20.

 I know a couple, and they're MAGA. They do their job, but they have a political lean. They were both heavily affected by Jan 6. Remain MAGA.

[Js1 85301]

2 hours ago, TeeDubya said:

Still thinking Harris?  How does your state by state electoral college map look?

Not much change for me.  Harris +3-4 PV, somewhere between 302 and 313 EVs. 

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Not much change for me.  Harris +3-4 PV, somewhere between 302 and 313 EVs. 

I need more data from Helob and Sushi.  

[Bullneck 19073]

14 minutes ago, immamac said:

No that'll be its own thread. 

Well, when that happens I want to tell you I plan three bottles of prosecco chilled.  Not sure how much I'll drink or have to share with my wife but expect some random posts from me.  I doubt I'll be getting much work done the next day.

[SubliminalHorn 6786]

2 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Well, when that happens I want to tell you I plan three bottles of prosecco chilled.  Not sure how much I'll drink or have to share with my wife but expect some random posts from me.  I doubt I'll be getting much work done the next day.

I took Wednesday off so I can stay up late. Hopefully I’ll be hungover and happy. Yea I know it’ll probably be a few days before we know for sure. But I think we’ll have a pretty good idea 

[BamaATL 16593]

2 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I took Wednesday off so I can stay up late. Hopefully I’ll be hungover and happy. Yea I know it’ll probably be a few days before we know for sure. But I think we’ll have a pretty good idea 

This one I'll bank right now 270 will be known by 1:00 am.  

[SydneyCarton 48071]

14 minutes ago, quigley said:

 I know a couple, and they're MAGA. They do their job, but they have a political lean. They were both heavily affected by Jan 6. Remain MAGA.

So not really affected at all. Got it.

[Red Five 40850]

11 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I took Wednesday off so I can stay up late. Hopefully I’ll be hungover and happy. Yea I know it’ll probably be a few days before we know for sure. But I think we’ll have a pretty good idea 

Same. No way I was going to set an alarm Wednesday morning.