2024 Presidential Election Prediction Thread

[quigley 1128]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

So not really affected at all. Got it.

They're actually both very sympathetic people. One was on hand for Jan 6 and had a lot of PTSD. He did his job despite his personally feelings. It shows the complexity of humans.

[SydneyCarton 47055]

3 minutes ago, quigley said:

They're actually both very sympathetic people. One was on hand for Jan 6 and had a lot of PTSD. He did his job despite his personally feelings. It shows the complexity of humans.

I certainly believe that person did and experienced all those things. The fact they don’t properly lay blame does something about humans, I agree. But I wouldn’t call it complexity. 

[Foosters 17598]

maybe it's the duality of man?

[Gatorubet 29363]

57 minutes ago, Foosters said:

maybe it's the duality of man?

Some say it’s the Pompitous of Love. 

[Exposition 91]

On 10/28/2024 at 12:01 PM, Slacks said:

I have a bad feeling about this.

I believe there will be thievery. All the shit that was said and done in the open last time was a test. No consequences means now do the shit quietly. 

Stop the Steal.

My inconsequential vote for POTUS (along with meaningful votes otherwise) was made today.

I wish I could have voted Abbott's ass off the cliff (and Mike Miles would have been tethered to him).

We are going to win. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11430]

[C-Man 26494]

This one I'll bank right now 270 will be known by 1:00 am.  

I agree — if Pennsylvania and Michigan go to Kamala, we should know that she won by 1.

Then the lawyers and Proud Boys get involved. And the shenanigans start popping off.

[Biff Tannen 44891]

22 minutes ago, C-Man said:

I agree — if Pennsylvania and Michigan go to Kamala, we should know that she won by 1.

Then the lawyers and Proud Boys get involved. And the shenanigans start popping off.

Either way I’m getting toasted. Took the day off work on Wednesday. Might call in sick Thursday if things go really poorly. 
 

I bet November 6, 2024 will be one of the least attended work days in recent memory. 

Edited yesterday at 04:43 AM by Biff Tannen
Also going to watch V for Vendetta the night before (even though it should be the 5th). Seems fitting.

[CTC2 2607]

5 hours ago, quigley said:

 I know a couple, and they're MAGA. They do their job, but they have a political lean. They were both heavily affected by Jan 6. Remain MAGA.

I don’t know whether to point and laugh or shake my head in disgust. 

[TeeDubya 3266]

 

[pacman 7210]

[BamaATL 15680]

So our Secretary of State of Georgia, Raffensperger, has announced prior that on election night we will start getting voting dumps by county starting at 8:00 EST.  Additionally, early vote, both in person and mail in will be the first to hit.  While I disagree with Raffensperger politically, I respect his integrity and have no reason to doubt any of this as intended.  However, I'm not sold each county will keep the schedule very rigidly and still expect rural, smaller counties to report more quickly than the big ones.  In short, I still expect a degree of red mirage, something we are accustomed to.  

With that in mind, on Tuesday, I am focused on early on data returns from 3 counties, all Northern Metro Atlanta, however, small by comparison of the major Atlanta counties.  All three of these counties are heavy lean Republican, and will not be flipping.  However, the reason I think these are bellwether worthy is because in order for Trump to have any chance in Georgia, these three counties will need to at a minimum maintain their 2020 percentages, if not exceed them.  They are as follows:

1.  Cherokee County (coincidentally where I live) 2020 - almost dead on the nose 100k R votes, with a 68.75%

2.  Forsyth County 2020 - 85k with 65.79%

3.  Hall County 2020 - 64k with 70.84%

As each of these counties are in Metro Atlanta, they are subject to metro level population migration, something that happened to both Cobb and Gwinnett counties over time and changed the demographics.  In any event, between the 3 counties, the average is about 68.6% Republican.  If those 3 remain about the same, to me it's going to be a long night waiting on the big Atlanta returns.  If they are off those margins by 5 points, to 63%, to me it portends well.  As early voting and mail in dominate preferred voting methods in each of these counties, I expect that these will report at high percentages (say 80% of complete turnout) at around 8 EST.  

Anyway, for those looking for early indicators in Georgia, that's my two cents.