2024 Presidential Election Prediction Thread

[quigley 1556]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

So not really affected at all. Got it.

They're actually both very sympathetic people. One was on hand for Jan 6 and had a lot of PTSD. He did his job despite his personally feelings. It shows the complexity of humans.

[SydneyCarton 48051]

3 minutes ago, quigley said:

They're actually both very sympathetic people. One was on hand for Jan 6 and had a lot of PTSD. He did his job despite his personally feelings. It shows the complexity of humans.

I certainly believe that person did and experienced all those things. The fact they don’t properly lay blame does something about humans, I agree. But I wouldn’t call it complexity. 

[Foosters 17820]

maybe it's the duality of man?

[Gatorubet 30183]

57 minutes ago, Foosters said:

maybe it's the duality of man?

Some say it’s the Pompitous of Love. 

[Exposition 93]

On 10/28/2024 at 12:01 PM, Slacks said:

I have a bad feeling about this.

I believe there will be thievery. All the shit that was said and done in the open last time was a test. No consequences means now do the shit quietly. 

Stop the Steal.

My inconsequential vote for POTUS (along with meaningful votes otherwise) was made today.

I wish I could have voted Abbott's ass off the cliff (and Mike Miles would have been tethered to him).

We are going to win. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

[C-Man 27183]

This one I'll bank right now 270 will be known by 1:00 am.  

I agree — if Pennsylvania and Michigan go to Kamala, we should know that she won by 1.

Then the lawyers and Proud Boys get involved. And the shenanigans start popping off.

[Biff Tannen 45661]

22 minutes ago, C-Man said:

I agree — if Pennsylvania and Michigan go to Kamala, we should know that she won by 1.

Then the lawyers and Proud Boys get involved. And the shenanigans start popping off.

Either way I’m getting toasted. Took the day off work on Wednesday. Might call in sick Thursday if things go really poorly. 
 

I bet November 6, 2024 will be one of the least attended work days in recent memory. 

Edited October 30 by Biff Tannen
Also going to watch V for Vendetta the night before (even though it should be the 5th). Seems fitting.

[CTC2 2791]

5 hours ago, quigley said:

 I know a couple, and they're MAGA. They do their job, but they have a political lean. They were both heavily affected by Jan 6. Remain MAGA.

I don’t know whether to point and laugh or shake my head in disgust. 

[TeeDubya 3362]

 

[pacman 7354]

[BamaATL 16593]

So our Secretary of State of Georgia, Raffensperger, has announced prior that on election night we will start getting voting dumps by county starting at 8:00 EST.  Additionally, early vote, both in person and mail in will be the first to hit.  While I disagree with Raffensperger politically, I respect his integrity and have no reason to doubt any of this as intended.  However, I'm not sold each county will keep the schedule very rigidly and still expect rural, smaller counties to report more quickly than the big ones.  In short, I still expect a degree of red mirage, something we are accustomed to.  

With that in mind, on Tuesday, I am focused on early on data returns from 3 counties, all Northern Metro Atlanta, however, small by comparison of the major Atlanta counties.  All three of these counties are heavy lean Republican, and will not be flipping.  However, the reason I think these are bellwether worthy is because in order for Trump to have any chance in Georgia, these three counties will need to at a minimum maintain their 2020 percentages, if not exceed them.  They are as follows:

1.  Cherokee County (coincidentally where I live) 2020 - almost dead on the nose 100k R votes, with a 68.75%

2.  Forsyth County 2020 - 85k with 65.79%

3.  Hall County 2020 - 64k with 70.84%

As each of these counties are in Metro Atlanta, they are subject to metro level population migration, something that happened to both Cobb and Gwinnett counties over time and changed the demographics.  In any event, between the 3 counties, the average is about 68.6% Republican.  If those 3 remain about the same, to me it's going to be a long night waiting on the big Atlanta returns.  If they are off those margins by 5 points, to 63%, to me it portends well.  As early voting and mail in dominate preferred voting methods in each of these counties, I expect that these will report at high percentages (say 80% of complete turnout) at around 8 EST.  

Anyway, for those looking for early indicators in Georgia, that's my two cents.  

[Satchel 6925]

If it’s really the economy, Trump shouldn’t have a chance:

https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-next-president-inherits-a-remarkable-economy-7be2d059

[Valmy77 13225]

He will take credit for it before he even enters office if he wins and then tank the economy and then his successor will get the blame for it...if this goes anything like 2017-2021.

[Ted Lange 16082]

8 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

He will take credit for it before he even enters office if he wins and then tank the economy and then his successor will get the blame for it...if this goes anything like 2017-2021.

more like 1988-2021

[Satchel 6925]

How CEO’s bet on the election. Insightful:

https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/how-ceos-bet-on-election-proximity-to-power-is-power-223140421663

[Helobious 9459]

On 10/22/2024 at 2:05 PM, Helobious said:

I didn’t even notice that. I still think Kamala wins the popular vote but electoral map looks like this. Virginia should be a shade darker blue, clicked one two many times I guess

Still confident in this. Maybe would give Kamala Michigan but that’s it. 

Edited October 31 by Helobious

[troph 24781]

17 hours ago, BamaATL said:

So our Secretary of State of Georgia, Raffensperger, has announced prior that on election night we will start getting voting dumps by county starting at 8:00 EST.  Additionally, early vote, both in person and mail in will be the first to hit.  While I disagree with Raffensperger politically, I respect his integrity and have no reason to doubt any of this as intended.  However, I'm not sold each county will keep the schedule very rigidly and still expect rural, smaller counties to report more quickly than the big ones.  In short, I still expect a degree of red mirage, something we are accustomed to.  

With that in mind, on Tuesday, I am focused on early on data returns from 3 counties, all Northern Metro Atlanta, however, small by comparison of the major Atlanta counties.  All three of these counties are heavy lean Republican, and will not be flipping.  However, the reason I think these are bellwether worthy is because in order for Trump to have any chance in Georgia, these three counties will need to at a minimum maintain their 2020 percentages, if not exceed them.  They are as follows:

1.  Cherokee County (coincidentally where I live) 2020 - almost dead on the nose 100k R votes, with a 68.75%

2.  Forsyth County 2020 - 85k with 65.79%

3.  Hall County 2020 - 64k with 70.84%

As each of these counties are in Metro Atlanta, they are subject to metro level population migration, something that happened to both Cobb and Gwinnett counties over time and changed the demographics.  In any event, between the 3 counties, the average is about 68.6% Republican.  If those 3 remain about the same, to me it's going to be a long night waiting on the big Atlanta returns.  If they are off those margins by 5 points, to 63%, to me it portends well.  As early voting and mail in dominate preferred voting methods in each of these counties, I expect that these will report at high percentages (say 80% of complete turnout) at around 8 EST.  

Anyway, for those looking for early indicators in Georgia, that's my two cents.  

you're a great addition to this board, I'm glad you're here, even if you are an elephant.

[Surly Bevo 24908]

4 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Still confident in this. Maybe would give Kamala Michigan but that’s it. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

He will take credit for it before he even enters office if he wins and then tank the economy and then his successor will get the blame for it...if this goes anything like 2017-2021.

People are idiots.  Obama left him a good situation and there’s not ever any mention of that. People act like Trump took us from a Great Depression to boom times. It wasn’t like that.  People also act like Trump presided over the best economy ever and don’t seem to give him any blame for covid or all the people who lost their Jobs to that.

it’s bizarre.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33859]

38 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Still confident in this. Maybe would give Kamala Michigan but that’s it. 

aight, you can stop now. your tally is recorded.

[gmr548 16575]

Very reluctantly:

Surprises on margin but not winner: KS, NM, UT

This will more or less

[quigley 1556]

On 10/30/2024 at 1:22 AM, CTC2 said:

I don’t know whether to point and laugh or shake my head in disgust. 

 

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Very reluctantly:

Surprises on margin but not winner: KS, NM, UT

This will more or less

Why reluctantly?

[gmr548 16575]

1 hour ago, quigley said:

 

Why reluctantly?

Because at the end of the day it's hopium. You can talk yourself into either candidate winning by selectively interpreting data. 

[CTC2 2791]

Didn’t see this coming 

 

 

[TwiceHorn 31434]

On 10/29/2024 at 7:25 PM, Foosters said:

maybe it's the duality of man?

That Jungian thing, sir.

[Bozo_Casanova 26429]

On 10/31/2024 at 9:30 PM, gmr548 said:

Because at the end of the day it's hopium. You can talk yourself into either candidate winning by selectively interpreting data. 

And I did! If my hypothesis is correct (essentially, white college grads and women combined with lower enthusiasm among trump voters than in 2020) this is what happens. It's basically a 2-3 point underestimation of Harris in the polling average, with an exception for Nevada. 

Edited November 2 by Bozo_Casanova

[BamaATL 16593]

Georgia's EV raw data is in, and it's time for a final prediction.  The total EV, both mail and in person combined was 4.003 million, a tremendous turnout (2020's total was right at 5 million).  The biggest jump of the page number is the total of 2020 nonvoters, which is 835k.  To me, who these folks are voting for will tell the tale.  To be clear, I'm completely ignoring the 3rd party candidates in all this, as they represent such a insignificant portion of the vote. 

 

Starting Point - I'm taking what I call a standard 2% attrition from each party.  This reduction is due to things like death, moving away etc.  

Republican starting point - 2,412,617

Democratic starting point - 2,424,160

 

2020 Non Voter based on Democratic stronghold and  2020 percentage percentage, total county, anticipated split

Bibb County (Macon) - 8230 total 5048 D/3181 R Net pick up +1866

Chatham County (Savannah) - 25263 total 14903 D/10358 net pick up +4545

Clarke County (Athens/UGA) - 9943 total 6960 D/2983 R net pick up +3977

Clayton County (Metro Atlanta) - 18361 total 15607 D/2754 R net pick up +12,853

Cobb County (Metro Atlanta) - 60,497 total 33878 D/26,618 net pick up +7259

Dekalb County (Metro Atlanta) - 57,839 total 48,0006 D/9833 R net pick up +38,137

Fulton County (Atlanta) - 102540 total 74854 D/27685 R net pick up +47,168

Gwinnett County (Metro Atlanta) 72,365 total 41,972D/30393 net pick up +11,579

 

Summary - total of non voters from those counties = 355,038, net pick up 127,384.  The remaining 2020 non voter population is 480k.

 

Next post will have scenarios, I don't want to retype this shit.  Come at me bro.  

 

 

 

 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

General Population Growth in Georgia over the past 4 years has been 12%, given the 50% expected turnout, I'm revising the starting point of both parties +6%

Repubs - 2,557,374  Dems - 2,569,609

For non voters I am going to add 10% for day of voting so total - 918,500, above charted Dem advantage +140,617, total remainder 528k

Scenario Models:

Scenario A - Zero attrition (no party drift, Trumps absolute best case).  In this scenario, of the 2020 non voters from the remainder of the state Trump wins them at a rate of 60/40 a Republican net pick up of 211,200.  Trump 2,768,574 votes, Harris 2,921,466.  

Scenario B - 3% attrition (Trump, thru combination of abstention of voter cross over, loses 3%).  In this scenario, 2020 non voter is split 50/50 outside of the earlier rundown.  His starting point is revised to 2,480,653 and picks up 264,000 in non voter for a total of 2,744,654, Harris 2,974,226.  

Scenario C (the you must shit rainbows scenario) 5% attrition, Harris picks up 70% of 2020 non voters. Trump picks up 2,587,905 votes.  Harris 3,079,826.

 I'll run with Scenario B as my prediction.  5.71 million total votes Harris with 51ish % and a win by nearly 250k.  In short, this isn't close from where I sit.  

[honolulu horn 6158]

3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

 I'll run with Scenario B as my prediction.  5.71 million total votes Harris with 51ish % and a win by nearly 250k.  In short, this isn't close from where I sit.  

From your lips to God's ears

[gmr548 16575]

47 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

General Population Growth in Georgia over the past 4 years has been 12%, given the 50% expected turnout, I'm revising the starting point of both parties +6%

Repubs - 2,557,374  Dems - 2,569,609

For non voters I am going to add 10% for day of voting so total - 918,500, above charted Dem advantage +140,617, total remainder 528k

Scenario Models:

Scenario A - Zero attrition (no party drift, Trumps absolute best case).  In this scenario, of the 2020 non voters from the remainder of the state Trump wins them at a rate of 60/40 a Republican net pick up of 211,200.  Trump 2,768,574 votes, Harris 2,921,466.  

Scenario B - 3% attrition (Trump, thru combination of abstention of voter cross over, loses 3%).  In this scenario, 2020 non voter is split 50/50 outside of the earlier rundown.  His starting point is revised to 2,480,653 and picks up 264,000 in non voter for a total of 2,744,654, Harris 2,974,226.  

Scenario C (the you must shit rainbows scenario) 5% attrition, Harris picks up 70% of 2020 non voters. Trump picks up 2,587,905 votes.  Harris 3,079,826.

 I'll run with Scenario B as my prediction.  5.71 million total votes Harris with 51ish % and a win by nearly 250k.  In short, this isn't close from where I sit.  

Rather than net zero, isn't Trump's best case netting votes between peeling off some degree of black/latino support while only giving a little more ground with college educated whites? And then having a higher break on 2020 non-voters? And then a small degree of attrition from the Harris side?

[BamaATL 16593]

14 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Rather than net zero, isn't Trump's best case netting votes between peeling off some degree of black/latino support while only giving a little more ground with college educated whites? And then having a higher break on 2020 non-voters? And then a small degree of attrition from the Harris side?

Maybe, I considered all those factors sort of washing in a net zero with female voters offsetting it.  There is always some level of political drift, so that scenario to me isn't really realistic.  To be honest, this is where my own bias certainly comes into play, and why I well could be wrong.  I just don't buy very many prior Dem voters migrating to Trump, at least not enough to be statistically significant (there will be some).  What I do buy, is voters migrating away from Trump, and 3% is a significant migration in my opinion.  

Just to be clear, I'm not a professional, I'd consider myself to be at best an amateur hobbyist with this, nothing more.  So even I'd take me as a grain of salt.  I do however, think I'm pretty close on the total voter number of 5.71 million.  So if you want something else or potentially look for on election night, it's who gets to 2.9 million first.  

[Longhorn94 2448]

I'm making my call:

 

Kamala: 319

Trump: 219

 

LFG!

[Mole 4330]

My prediction: sometime around 1am Wednesday morning, that guy will give a speech/press conference where he lies about the results of the election and puts the lives of local public servants at risk.

While you may say this is just a typical Wednesday for him, this will be specific to the ongoing count and will be particularly harmful and egregious, even by our current bar, which is on the floor of the bottom rung of hell.

Also, Kamala wins 320ish electoral votes.

[BamaATL 16593]

7 minutes ago, Mole said:

My prediction: sometime around 1am Wednesday morning, that guy will give a speech/press conference where he lies about the results of the election and puts the lives of local public servants at risk.

While you may say this is just a typical Wednesday for him, this will be specific to the ongoing count and will be particularly harmful and egregious, even by our current bar, which is on the floor of the bottom rung of hell.

Also, Kamala wins 320ish electoral votes.

I agree with every bit of this, except I'd put his announcement to be sometime around 10 EST, because at that point it's obviously going to be Harris as the winner, significantly so.  

Harris 319

Trump 219

I'm very tempted to move Texas blue, but I refrained.  I will say this, Texas is the next Georgia, congrats, you guys get the extra ads next time around.  

[Chopper 17228]

374  376 to 161 162 for your next President of the United States, Kamala Harris.

Final answer.

Missed a state. 

Tempted to include Texas but I don't want to have my heart broken. Included FL because abortion is on the ballot. 

Edited November 3 by Chopper

[Valmy77 13225]

Kamala with 286. That's my call.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

MVP Harris 350+ in the EC.

[Hefeweizen 5308]

I think it’s 350 plus.  Could be 400.  I think it’s going to be shockingly not close.  Polls have been herding and are basically trash.

[atomheartbevo 89618]

7 hours ago, Chopper said:

Tempted to include Texas but I don't want to have my heart broken. Included FL because abortion is on the ballot. 

Mine is close to your’s although I give the Dems Florida because of abortion and Puerto Ricans showing up.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

I think it’s 350 plus.  Could be 400.  I think it’s going to be shockingly not close.  Polls have been herding and are basically trash.

What do we know about the voters? Rumors women over 60 are bringing Roevember and not going back.

[Pancho 44685]

270-268

 

 

[Hawndoh 2386]

Harris gonna roll and it isn't close at all 

[Underdog 28544]

[Hefeweizen 5308]

45 minutes ago, Pancho said:

270-268

 

 

It’s possible.  I just don’t think it’ll be close.  If it is, I do see violence coming.

[SydneyCarton 48051]

20 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

It’s possible.  I just don’t think it’ll be close.  If it is, I do see violence coming.

If it’s a blowout I see violence too. The cult won’t believe it, they’ll see it as evidence of a rigged election. Because they’re fucking morons. 

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

16 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

If it’s a blowout I see violence too. The cult won’t believe it, they’ll see it as evidence of a rigged election. Because they’re fucking morons. 

This right here.  Violence is coming.  Tens of millions of people still believe the 2020 elections was rigged.  Not because of facts but because Trump, his allies, Fox News told them that and in fact keep telling them that.  Over the last few months, you have heard Trump and others saying they can only lose if the Dems cheat.  I am seeing friends on social media like Facebook already saying stuff like it's obvious the Dems are trying to cheat to steal the election.  Once he loses Tuesday night (and I actually think it will be a blow out for Kamala) he will go on TV and say the election was stolen from him and some of those millions of people will lose their shit and violence will occur.  Hopefully it is put down quickly across the country and we can figure out some way to move forward as a nation and send the MAGA crowd back to their holes.

[Mdhorn 5945]

29 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

This right here.  Violence is coming.  Tens of millions of people still believe the 2020 elections was rigged.  Not because of facts but because Trump, his allies, Fox News told them that and in fact keep telling them that.  Over the last few months, you have heard Trump and others saying they can only lose if the Dems cheat.  I am seeing friends on social media like Facebook already saying stuff like it's obvious the Dems are trying to cheat to steal the election.  Once he loses Tuesday night (and I actually think it will be a blow out for Kamala) he will go on TV and say the election was stolen from him and some of those millions of people will lose their shit and violence will occur.  Hopefully it is put down quickly across the country and we can figure out some way to move forward as a nation and send the MAGA crowd back to their holes.

Those aren't all young people.  The return to the 50s group are geriatrics and the gravy seals aren't doing squat for any duration of time.  Aside from intimidating, most of them want to commiserate at the Cracker Barrel at the beginning and end of the day.  I know that they create their own realities, but playing army takes work and they're where they're at because they mostly put themselves there.  The real people that lose out in the argument of the unjust are the minorities and women, and they're the ones with the most to lose. 

Edited November 3 by Mdhorn

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

This right here.  Violence is coming.  Tens of millions of people still believe the 2020 elections was rigged.  Not because of facts but because Trump, his allies, Fox News told them that and in fact keep telling them that.  Over the last few months, you have heard Trump and others saying they can only lose if the Dems cheat.  I am seeing friends on social media like Facebook already saying stuff like it's obvious the Dems are trying to cheat to steal the election.  Once he loses Tuesday night (and I actually think it will be a blow out for Kamala) he will go on TV and say the election was stolen from him and some of those millions of people will lose their shit and violence will occur.  Hopefully it is put down quickly across the country and we can figure out some way to move forward as a nation and send the MAGA crowd back to their holes.

Most trump supporters aren’t very bright.

[Js1 85258]

14 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Most trump supporters aren’t very bright.

Big, if true