2024 Presidential Election Prediction Thread

[Huckleberry 32,707]

Shades are based on <3, 3-6, 6+

[Js1 85,138]

9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Shades are based on <3, 3-6, 6+

I totally buy that map. Including the shading 

[Red Five 40,683]

Would that map get the election called Tuesday night?

 

 

 

 

[SydneyCarton 47,923]

10 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Would that map get the election called Tuesday night?

 

 

 

 

Good chance. NC gets called early, GA could get called early as well. 

[Biff Tannen 45,502]

42 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Shades are based on <3, 3-6, 6+

[Js1 85,138]

22 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Would that map get the election called Tuesday night?

 

 

 

 

Yes. Very likely we will know NC, GA and maybe MI/PA tuesday night. Or the trends will be obvious enough that while the media may not call it, Wasserman might see enough 

[Gap03 3,287]

 

Here's my best guess.  I think that Dobbs + the Puerto Rican vote will push Kamala across the line in the Blue Wall + NC and GA, but the Hispanic vote may end up biting her in Nevada and AZ.  

 

 

[hookem2010 2,600]

18 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Shades are based on <3, 3-6, 6+

This is my map as well

[Bozo_Casanova 26,306]

20 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Shades are based on <3, 3-6, 6+

Mine too

20 hours ago, Red Five said:

Would that map get the election called Tuesday night?

 

 

 

 

Depends on how close it is obviously, but my prediction since mid august has been that there will be a normal polling average miss of around 3ppts either for Trump or Harris across the battleground states, and that the miss would be in the same direction across at least five of them. Since that time I have continued to assert that support for Harris was more likely to be underestimated than for either the polls to be exactly right or for Trump to be underestimated a third time in a row. 

If that holds up, we'll know the winner by 12-1am Central time, whether it's called or not, and if I'm directionally right it will be Harris. 

 

[Horndog 2,218]

2 hours ago, Gap03 said:

 

Here's my best guess.  I think that Dobbs + the Puerto Rican vote will push Kamala across the line in the Blue Wall + NC and GA, but the Hispanic vote may end up biting her in Nevada and AZ.  

 

 

Pretty much agree but I think AZ stays blue. 

[Valmy77 13,114]

I mean the Hispanic vote will still be Democratic but perhaps less so. The white vote is what will bite her in Nevada.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

since i don't have a concrete reason to change, i'll revert to my very first prediction from sixish months ago -- GA and AZ go back red, NC goes blue.

[immamac 42,539]

On 11/2/2024 at 11:24 AM, BamaATL said:

I agree with every bit of this, except I'd put his announcement to be sometime around 10 EST, because at that point it's obviously going to be Harris as the winner, significantly so.  

Harris 319

Trump 219

I'm very tempted to move Texas blue, but I refrained.  I will say this, Texas is the next Georgia, congrats, you guys get the extra ads next time around.  

Lmao you obviously don't live here. We got all the extra ads this time around. 

[BamaATL 16,592]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

Lmao you obviously don't live here. We got all the extra ads this time around. 

No I do not, but we've had em for 6 years.  It starts for us almost 8 months out, so virtually non stop, for 6 years.  

[DigglerontheHoof 21,073]

Florida might have a buncher's chance to flip but, Texas is a bridge too far, imo.  

I do give Allred a shot to beat Cat Piss, though. 

[Clintonaldo 2,571]

2 hours ago, Gap03 said:

 

Here's my best guess.  I think that Dobbs + the Puerto Rican vote will push Kamala across the line in the Blue Wall + NC and GA, but the Hispanic vote may end up biting her in Nevada and AZ.  

 

 

That’s the Chili’s map by god. 

[Gandalfish 332]

This is my map on the eve of the election. I'm putting my heart on the line and daring to hope.

[Snake Diggity 4,614]

My final update:

USA: Harris +6

NM Harris +5

MI Harris +4

PA Harris +4

WI Harris +2

NC Harris +2

GA Harris +1

AZ Harris +1

NV Trump +0

FL Trump +3

TX Trump +4

OH Trump +4

IA Trump +4

AK Trump +4

Nowhere else will be within 5.  Senate will be 49D-51R with Murkowski and Collins sharing the Manchin role.  Cruz +3.  House will be 220 D - 215 R.

We will be surprised how little violence there will be prior to the inauguration.  We are getting expanded Medicare and people will get money for childcare.  Ukraine will survive long enough to settle back to 2014 borders.  Putin will be dead within 3 years.  Israel will relax.  Inflation will continue to be above 2.5%; that is the new normal for awhile.  Bitcoin price will tank.  Trump will continue to be involved in politics but only as a hired gun to juice turnout in rural areas in close elections and as a talking head on TV, and of course, on constant tour continuing to grift; he will die at age 87.

Edited November 4 by Snake Diggity

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

Some of y’all have no clue just how pissed women are about Dobbs. The era of old white men is going to get bitch slapped. They are not going back.

Latinos aren’t going to save the guy promoting mass deportation.

[A-Tex Devil 2,445]

My prediction:

1. Fox makes at least one early call for Red (probably AZ or NV) that ends up being wrong to try to make up for AZ 4 years ago;

2. At least one state that is not in the 7 swing states goes blue;

3. Kamala gets more than 300 electoral votes;

4. We still know by 1:00 AM central that Kamala has 270 electoral votes; and

5.  Trump has a press conference before midnight declaring victory.  

[High Plains Drifter 10,983]

 

My prediction: 

 

 

 

Also, I'm thinking we need a little violence to clear the air. A little watering of the tree of liberty if you will. Then once they are all dead or up on murder charges, the magats will go the fuck away, and we can get back to normalcy- arguing over tax rates and such. 

 

 

[Red Five 40,683]

8 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

5.  Trump has a press conference before midnight declaring victory.  

Depending on how big of an asskicking he's taking, this has the potential to be hilarious.

[High Plains Drifter 10,983]

9 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

My prediction:

1. Fox makes at least one early call for Red (probably AZ or NV) that ends up being wrong to try to make up for AZ 4 years ago;

2. At least one state that is not in the 7 swing states goes blue;

3. Kamala gets more than 300 electoral votes;

4. We still know by 1:00 AM central that Kamala has 270 electoral votes; and

5.  Trump has a press conference before midnight declaring victory.  

 

Any "media" that covers number 5 and doesn't call it a lie, using that actual word- lie, should be shut down. 

 

[Surly Bevo 24,697]

 
Any "media" that covers number 5 and doesn't call it a lie, using that actual word- lie, should be shut down. 
 

They’re all gonna soft pedal it.

“While it looks like Trump believes he has won that’s not completely in line with the results we are seeing at this time. Stay Tuned!”

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

 

 

 

[Valmy77 13,114]

Ridiculous. The only time Iowa beat Texas was in the Freedom Bowl.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

I'm intrigued by NWA's takeover of Pennsylvania.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

https://www.270towin.com/maps/YL8jb

If Harris takes Ohio she will also take Florida.

I’m in Maricopa county these days. GOP House Rep Schweikert signs are easily 100 : 1 to Trump signs. If they’re voting for Trump they are embarrassed to advertise it.

AZ prides itself on the independent maverick streak of McCain.

[TexEx15 17,487]

Give me 2020 plus NC. I waited for Ralston and will go with his prediction for Nevada as I know shit about fuck.

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,306]

I predict Trump will declare a "landslide" victory and claim Pennsylvania, Georgia and NC around 10PM Central +/-

[immamac 42,539]

44 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

If Harris takes Ohio she will also take Florida.

I’m in Maricopa county these days. GOP House Rep Schweikert signs are easily 100 : 1 to Trump signs. If they’re voting for Trump they are embarrassed to advertise it.

AZ prides itself on the independent maverick streak of McCain.

this was before Puerto Rico thing. 

[Red Five 40,683]

Final answer. 

[texasdago 7,553]

3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

 

 

Meta thinks otherwise

[Firemans4Horn 17,842]

Calling my shot

[bolverk 29,414]

Added Florida because Aubrey told me not to sleep on her Boricuas down there.

Shaded according to final vote:

• Lightest shade: less than 5% difference (either direction)
• Medium: 5-10%
• Dark: 10%+

Edited November 4 by bolverk

[Valmy77 13,114]

6 hours ago, immamac said:

Lmao you obviously don't live here. We got all the extra ads this time around. 

It got crazy the last couple weeks. Every damn game yesterday was political ad after political ad. 

So looking forward to watching football in peace next weekend.

[Valmy77 13,114]

Anyway here is my map:

[UpperWestside 6,136]

Harris will win, the cult loses and does some limited amounts of rioting in some of the pisshole towns and hamlets they live in. 

[UpperWestside 6,136]

3 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I predict Trump will declare a "landslide" victory and claim Pennsylvania, Georgia and NC around 10PM Central +/-

I predict I will be laying on the beach while all of this is transpiring and will pay zero attention to any of this tomorrow night. Wednesday I will be glad to wake up and see that our decade long national nightmare has come to a close. The cult's leader/grifter will be facing some prison time shortly thereafter.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,306]

36 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

Harris will win, the cult loses and does some limited amounts of rioting in some of the pisshole towns and hamlets they live in. 

November 6th, 2024
There was a riot on the streets
tell me what they were for.
You were sittin' home watchin' your TV
While I was beathing heavy with COPD

[I kid I kid]

Edited November 5 by Bozo_Casanova

[TwiceHorn 31,309]

7 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Some of y’all have no clue just how pissed women are about Dobbs. The era of old white men is going to get bitch slapped. They are not going back.

Latinos aren’t going to save the guy promoting mass deportation.

Even if they aren't still mad about Dobbs and the ensuing state enshittification, they have the chance to elect the first woman president.

They fucked up on Hillary, as unlikeable as she was, and see what we got?  

[LCHorn 2,585]

2 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Calling my shot

Mine is very close:

[Dutchrudder 11,121]

My guess. 308-230 is still a big win.

[atomheartbevo 89,463]

I think the porn workers in Nevada come through against Project 2025.  I don’t see AZ going for Trump.  I think Georgia has momentum, and I think NC lacks enthusiasm for Trump after the past two months. I trust Seltzer on Iowa.  I think abortion and Puerto Ricans push Florida over the edge. I think Texas scares the shit out of the Rs, and if I had to pick a wildcard it would be Texas, but I’m leaving it red.

[Brisketexan 104,678]

I love you guys…but there’s a lot of crack smoking and fart sniffing going on around here.

[bolverk 29,414]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I love you guys…but there’s a lot of crack smoking and fart sniffing going on around here.

Hey! I don't smoke crack, and it ain't farts I'm inhaling. Aubrey waved around her witch's magick incense, and an epiphany came over me.

 

[BamaATL 16,592]

One more prediction to make, tomorrow, right around this time 9 EST/8 central, Georgia will be the first big shoe to drop, one way or the other.  All the mail in and ev vote should have posted state wide by this time, and from there it will just come down to math against Atlanta.  Analysts should not take very long to figure this against turn out. 

[SmokeyTheBear 5,562]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I love you guys…but there’s a lot of crack smoking and fart sniffing going on around here.

Shhhhh

Can we not enjoy the last bit of hope before, potentially,  the fall of the American idea?  And therefore a world that is much more scary than it is today.  

I'm shooting all the hopium I can into my veins.  

 

[Valmy77 13,114]

15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I love you guys…but there’s a lot of crack smoking and fart sniffing going on around here.

Well I went out on limb for Georgia but it did go for the Democrats in 2020 and 2022...not that big of a stretch.

[BamaATL 16,592]

7 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Well I went out on limb for Georgia but it did go for the Democrats in 2020 and 2022...not that big of a stretch.

If Brisket doesn't get enough doomcasting in per day, he turns into a pumpkin.  You have to give him some leeway, his health is at stake.