2024 Presidential Election Prediction Thread

[atomheartbevo 89,464]

22 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Well I went out on limb for Georgia but it did go for the Democrats in 2020 and 2022...not that big of a stretch.

And Trump has done nothing to help himself with Georgians.  I think it easily goes for Harris.

[UpperWestside 6,136]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I love you guys…but there’s a lot of crack smoking and fart sniffing going on around here.

Optimism at tomorrow is good and warranted. If it takes someone doing a dab or two of acid to get things rolling who are we to stand in the way of a good time? I will not know a thing until Wednesday unless some idiot cult member loses his stuff out here in Honolulu and goes full moron at their god king losing again.

[BLKNSTY 289]

Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia go Trump
Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin go Harris

not sure what the numbers are on that, hope I’m wrong but I have a feeling we’re looking at Dotard, Part 2 - Electric Boogaloo.

Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada go Trump. Sorry folks, I’ve been on this ride before and for whatever reason we seem to never learn our lesson - WW will break 55%+ Trump and Latinos won’t be far behind. Hope I’m wrong though.

[atomheartbevo 89,464]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I love you guys…but there’s a lot of crack smoking and fart sniffing going on around here.

You’re of a certain age - do you recall a shitload of JFK/LBJ or Carter administration officials coming out publicly trashing their former bosses and endorsing Reagan or the older Bush, let alone campaigning for them?  These are former officials who are publicly putting themselves in the proverbial crosshairs, potentially cutting off future revenue streams and future careers.  If they are willing to do this, risking potentially hundreds of thousands, even millions of dollars over the years, maybe even risking their personal safety, I think plenty of rank-and-file Republican will, in the privacy of the voting booth, either not vote, or vote Harris or Oliver.

I think the end result will be closer to my prediction of 355 than 270.

[BevoAbyss 2,057]

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think plenty of rank-and-file Republican will, in the privacy of the voting booth, either not vote, or vote Harris

About Republicans voting for Harris. Anecdotal, but interesting story:

Last night, I got a call from a friend in Baltimore for a business trip last and visiting family over the weekend. He told me the following:

Was in a cafe/coffeehouse near his hotel. Two 65-ish men sat down at the table next to him. They were "Republicans for Harris."

-- They did canvassing for Harris among Republicans in PA. Optimistic about what they saw.

-- Had "Republicans for Harris" signs in car window. Said that 90% of driver responses were positive, though they said 5-6 Trumper-MAGAs were pissed and shot them the finger and yelled at them.

-- They told my friend that they expect 10-11% of Republicans to vote for Harris nationwide.

So, here is my question, followed by a comment.

Question: If Harris gets 10% of Republicans, how does she not win in a landslide? Are the polls not considering the "R for Harris" voters?

Comments: That also means 90% of Republican voters are voting for a Christian fascist dictatorship. Come on Surly Republicans and conservatives, tell me how this is going away after Trump? I'll answer. It is not going away.

-- The Republican Party is a Christian Fascist party. They want to end secular democracy. END OF STORY. 

Edited November 5 by BevoAbyss

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

About Republicans voting for Harris. Anecdotal, but interesting story:
Last night, I got a call from a friend in Baltimore for a business trip last and visiting family over the weekend. He told me the following:
Was in a cafe/coffeehouse near his hotel. Two 65-ish men sat down at the table next to him. They were "Republicans for Harris."
-- They did canvassing for Harris among Republicans in PA. Optimistic about what they saw.
-- Had "Republicans for Harris" signs in car window. Said that 90% of driver responses were positive, though they said 5-6 Trumper-MAGAs were pissed and shot them the finger and yelled at them.
-- They told my friend that they expect 10-11% of Republicans to vote for Harris nationwide.
So, here is my question, followed by a comment.
Question: If Harris gets 10% of Republicans, how does she not win in a landslide? Are the polls not considering the "R for Harris" voters?
Comments: That also means 90% of Republican voters are voting for a Christian fascist dictatorship. Come on Surly Republicans and conservatives, tell me how this is going away after Trump? I'll answer. It is not going away.
-- The Republican Party is a Christian Fascist party. They want to end secular democracy. END OF STORY. 

I’d also guess ~5% of registered R leave the top of the ticket blank.

[choripan 790]

Harris 538 - Trump 0

Let's fucking go.

[texastough 1,129]

I posted this on Sept. 20 back on page (checks notes) 733 of the main thread:

"Calling my shot = she gets 325. All the swing states + Iowa.

The trends are clear and the GOP is self destructing. The Walz effect puts her over the top in Iowa.

I want to think FL could flip but Trump just seems like the perfect FloridaMan "

 

I made a similar prediction earlier in this thread. NGL, now I'm feeling slightly more optimistic, that another couple of red states could flip.  But, I get nearly 100% of my info from the Surl. Don't watch TV. Haven't been on FB or IG in years. Only signed up for Twitter when clips started coming out of Russian war machines exploding, but never check it anymore. So, beyond the part about saving the republic, for me today is also a referendum on this site.

In the age of a splintered media environment and increasingly shoddy or biased journalism, nobody has time to a) seek out info on every topic/issue or b) check the veracity of all the info. Here on the Surl, the news comes to me -- typically quicker than traditional media -- and it is almost instantly fact-checked. So, in other words I have come to rely on you assholes for almost everything . . . but even though individually we don't know shit about fuck, it seems that collectively we do know shit about all kinds of shit, including fuck. Artificial intelligence can only reflect back whats out on the internet, much of which is nonsense, whereas the sum-of-parts hive-mind here adds up to ACTUAL intelligence. So if I'm right on the prediction, all credit goes to the Surl. And even if its wrong -- many thanks to (most of) you fuckers. LFG!

[TonyTexas 10,482]

^^^

Lulz. Surly Cloak Roomers make Fox News and MSNBC seem unbiased. 

Edited November 5 by TonyTexas

[SydneyCarton 47,924]

3 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

^^^

Lulz. Surly Cloak Roomers make Fox News and MSNBC seem unbiased. 

Honest question. And I'm not saying this happens. But lets say Harris ends up winning by a huge electoral margin. 

Would that make you rethink the news media you follow and the polling industry, or would you just assume it was stolen?

[South Austin 52,161]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Honest question. And I'm not saying this happens. But lets say Harris ends up winning by a huge electoral margin. 

Would that make you rethink the news media you follow and the polling industry, or would you just assume it was stolen?

Are you directing this at the dipshits?  Because I believe those with half a brain on this forum understand that (1) election media coverage and polling has by and large been shit for quite some time, and (2) there is no credible evidence of election theft.

[quigley 1,527]

2 hours ago, BevoAbyss said:

10-11% of Republicans to vote for Harris nationwide.

So, here is my question, followed by a comment.

Question: If Harris gets 10% of Republicans, how does she not win in a landslide? Are the polls not considering the "R for Harris" voters?

Comments: That also means 90% of Republican voters are voting for a Christian fascist dictatorship. Come on Surly Republicans and conservatives, tell me how this is going away after Trump? I'll answer. It is not going away.

-- The Republican Party is a Christian Fascist party. They want to end secular democracy. END OF STORY. 

On one of the Pod Saves podcasts, they had a talking head say something like "Harris needs > 6% of GOP who voted for Trump to feel good. They've seen 9% in some places."

If they're get 10%, the bets on > 320 electoral votes for Harris may cash.

[quigley 1,527]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Honest question. And I'm not saying this happens. But lets say Harris ends up winning by a huge electoral margin. 

Would that make you rethink the news media you follow and the polling industry, or would you just assume it was stolen?

 

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

Are you directing this at the dipshits?  Because I believe those with half a brain on this forum understand that (1) election media coverage and polling has by and large been shit for quite some time, and (2) there is no credible evidence of election theft.

And to second second South Austin, I don't need to know outcomes to know that media and polling are complete bullshit for the last decade.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

5 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Are you directing this at the dipshits? 

my bet is he was directing it to the person he asked, TonyTexas

[Mdhorn 5,912]

12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

And Trump has done nothing to help himself with Georgians.  I think it easily goes for Harris.

Which also has me wondering how he's going to fix the election, since he's not trying much these days.  He's vomiting racist, sexist diatribe. 

[South Austin 52,161]

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

my bet is he was directing it to the person he asked, TonyTexas

Ah, I see.  I misread that as a global question.

[SydneyCarton 47,924]

14 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Are you directing this at the dipshits?  Because I believe those with half a brain on this forum understand that (1) election media coverage and polling has by and large been shit for quite some time, and (2) there is no credible evidence of election theft.

 

8 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

my bet is he was directing it to the person he asked, TonyTexas

Correct. I'm asking THAT person. And the question was simply to understand their position on polling and media if there's a blowout for Harris, since, you know, the CR is more biased than MSNBC. So, what happens if we get it right? Is the fault in what is being presented to people, or just going to assume stolen election? I'd like an answer. 

[Rex Kramer 1,302]

2 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

I’d also guess ~5% of registered R leave the top of the ticket blank.

I considered doing this for months. I’m in the 10-11% of that dude’s anecdote. Problem is, I’m in Texas. Wish I was in Pennsylvania. 

[WBT 20,428]

On 11/3/2024 at 2:20 PM, Js1 said:

Yes. Very likely we will know NC, GA and maybe MI/PA tuesday night. Or the trends will be obvious enough that while the media may not call it, Wasserman might see enough 

If it's like last time, the media won't call shit before Thursday at least.  The cowardice/innumeracy was ridiculous.

[Js1 85,140]

Just now, WBT said:

If it's like last time, the media won't call shit before Thursday at least.  The cowardice/innumeracy was ridiculous.

The media may not call anything before Thursday, but we will know, likely by tonight.

If Trump just blows out his 2020-margins in GA/NC and wins both, he probably won.

If Harris flips NC, she won. 

If she wins GA and he wins NC, we will know the winner based on Michigan, who will report most of their votes tonight.  She wins Michigan, it's Joever for him.   

[Hornius Emeritus 12,424]

[Red Five 40,683]

The media may not call anything before Thursday, but we will know, likely by tonight.
If Trump just blows out his 2020-margins in GA/NC and wins both, he probably won.
If Harris flips NC, she won. 
If she wins GA and he wins NC, we will know the winner based on Michigan, who will report most of their votes tonight.  She wins Michigan, it's Joever for him.   

Anakin/Padme meme. But she’s definitely gonna win Michigan, right?

[WBT 20,428]

29 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The media may not call anything before Thursday, but we will know, likely by tonight.

If Trump just blows out his 2020-margins in GA/NC and wins both, he probably won.

If Harris flips NC, she won. 

If she wins GA and he wins NC, we will know the winner based on Michigan, who will report most of their votes tonight.  She wins Michigan, it's Joever for him.   

In the 270-268 scenario we may be waiting on Pennsylvania again.

[Dbeasy 14,975]

3 hours ago, BevoAbyss said:

About Republicans voting for Harris. Anecdotal, but interesting story:

Last night, I got a call from a friend in Baltimore for a business trip last and visiting family over the weekend. He told me the following:

Was in a cafe/coffeehouse near his hotel. Two 65-ish men sat down at the table next to him. They were "Republicans for Harris."

-- They did canvassing for Harris among Republicans in PA. Optimistic about what they saw.

-- Had "Republicans for Harris" signs in car window. Said that 90% of driver responses were positive, though they said 5-6 Trumper-MAGAs were pissed and shot them the finger and yelled at them.

-- They told my friend that they expect 10-11% of Republicans to vote for Harris nationwide.

So, here is my question, followed by a comment.

Question: If Harris gets 10% of Republicans, how does she not win in a landslide? Are the polls not considering the "R for Harris" voters?

Comments: That also means 90% of Republican voters are voting for a Christian fascist dictatorship. Come on Surly Republicans and conservatives, tell me how this is going away after Trump? I'll answer. It is not going away.

-- The Republican Party is a Christian Fascist party. They want to end secular democracy. END OF STORY. 

I'm on a group text thread of those of us from the "whole group" who are sensible, intelligent people. A few weeks ago, we did an experiment. We asked each person how many out of 10 Republican friends they thought would flip from 2020 and vote Harris over Trump. Our group includes independents, Republicans, and Democrats. We concluded as a group that we all knew approximately 10% of our Republican friends that are "definitely" flipping. Now, that could end up being 8% or 5% or 12%, but if it's anything over 5%, I also can't see Trump winning. That, plus JS, has kept me off the ledge for the last few weeks.

[TheStoicPaisano 9,904]

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

Nikki Haley primary votes is where I’d start in trying to divine who crosses over or opts out. How many of those return to the fold?

[Js1 85,140]

As of this morning, with the early vote in and the morning turnout:

• I feel extremely good about Michigan
• I feel really good about Pennsylvania
• I feel cautiously optimistic about Georgia and Nevada
• I am leaning Wisconsin to Harris (but she doesn't need it if she wins GA/PA/MI), mostly due to the strength of organizing, Ben Wikler and Milwaukee/Dane turning the fuck out
• My gut says NC is going to flip, but I haven't seen much about NC turnout today. 

[SydneyCarton 47,924]

1 hour ago, WBT said:

If it's like last time, the media won't call shit before Thursday at least.  The cowardice/innumeracy was ridiculous.

 

58 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The media may not call anything before Thursday, but we will know, likely by tonight.

If Trump just blows out his 2020-margins in GA/NC and wins both, he probably won.

If Harris flips NC, she won. 

If she wins GA and he wins NC, we will know the winner based on Michigan, who will report most of their votes tonight.  She wins Michigan, it's Joever for him.   

This. I feel like we'll have an idea tonight. Not even for JS1's specific scenarios, but also the trends and margins that start showing up in various counties and other bellweathers. I feel like we'll start seeing the trends in PA and GA, and maybe even Florida that really give an indication of how things are going. 

[Js1 85,140]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

 

This. I feel like we'll have an idea tonight. Not even for JS1's specific scenarios, but also the trends and margins that start showing up in various counties and other bellweathers. I feel like we'll start seeing the trends in PA and GA, and maybe even Florida that really give an indication of how things are going. 

I don't think FL is going to tell us anything.

It did not tell us shit in 2020 or 2022. In fact, it scared the shit out of everyone. 

The *only* tea leaf I might read out of FL is Duvall and Tampa - this could show further erosion of the suburbs for Trump. 

[Dnaguy 11,777]

[G650 14,113]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The *only* tea leaf I might read out of FL is Duvall and Tampa - this could show further erosion of the suburbs for Trump. 

I just like hearing people say Duuuuvvaaalllllll

[babysdaddy 2,718]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Honest question. And I'm not saying this happens. But lets say Harris ends up winning by a huge electoral margin. 

Would that make you rethink the news media you follow and the polling industry, or would you just assume it was stolen?

I would turn Js1 into my personal dave wasserman

[The Royal We 3,066]

I've been vacillating back and forth between doom and hope for weeks now depending on how much Js1 keeps the hopium flowing vs. how many people in my day to day life tell me they think Trump wins in a route.

The thing that I keep going back to is how much better I feel now vs. the morning after that Biden/Trump debate. My wife went to bed early that night and I remember telling her how fucked we were first thing the next morning. Kamala has played her hand just about as perfectly as she could have and we were fully fucking cooked before Biden decided to do the right thing.

 

ETA: This is what I think happens unless there is too much fuck shit going on in GA and it flips back red.

Edited November 5 by The Royal We

[texasdago 7,553]

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I don't think FL is going to tell us anything.

It did not tell us shit in 2020 or 2022. In fact, it scared the shit out of everyone. 

The *only* tea leaf I might read out of FL is Duvall and Tampa - this could show further erosion of the suburbs for Trump. 

I really wonder how the abortion amendment will impact FL and other races.  Amendment + PR "trash" comment = tight race?  Who know!?

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/703828-poll-shows-abortion-rights-measure-still-falling-short-of-passage-in-florida/ 

[Js1 85,140]

2 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I would turn Js1 into my personal dave wasserman

I am scared of a pending deification of me when Harris wins. 

[SydneyCarton 47,924]

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I don't think FL is going to tell us anything.

It did not tell us shit in 2020 or 2022. In fact, it scared the shit out of everyone. 

The *only* tea leaf I might read out of FL is Duvall and Tampa - this could show further erosion of the suburbs for Trump. 

I remember the freak out about the performance of Miami Dade, etc. Hell in 2016 and 2020. If we see stronger margins and turnout in that along compared to the last two elections for Democrats, I'd start to feel pretty good. 

 

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I am scared of a pending deification of me when Harris wins. 

You should be scared what happens if she doesn't. 

[babysdaddy 2,718]

Just now, Js1 said:

I am scared of a pending deification of me when Harris wins. 

It's either that or you're getting a new username.  

[Js1 85,140]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I remember the freak out about the performance of Miami Dade, etc. Hell in 2016 and 2020. If we see stronger margins and turnout in that along compared to the last two elections for Democrats, I'd start to feel pretty good. 

 

You should be scared what happens if she doesn't. 

We ain’t neighbors anymore.  Come and find me 

[Goredho 17,352]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I am scared of a pending deification of me when Harris wins. 

[SydneyCarton 47,924]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

We ain’t neighbors anymore.  Come and find me 

Darwin knows where you live. 

[babysdaddy 2,718]

2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Honest question. And I'm not saying this happens. But lets say Harris ends up winning by a huge electoral margin. 

Would that make you rethink the news media you follow and the polling industry, or would you just assume it was stolen?

What happens if Trump wins by a huge margin?  Would that make you rethink your information diet? 

[Huckleberry 32,707]

I don't think anyone is, or at least should be, extremely confident in a win on either side. 

The reason for optimism on the Harris side, though, is the repeated and stubborn second level polling results. It seems like the vast majority of polls showing Trump leads did things like delete Philadelphia from their Pennsylvania likely voter screen, base their bottom line on a 77% white electorate in an area after it was 67% last time, etc.

Meanwhile when you look at voter enthusiasm, polls of those who have already voted, female polling percentage combined with voter share, etc. it is all looking good for Harris. It reminds me of the blog post a long time ago that showed that Texas students scored higher on the SAT  than Wisconsin students in every single demographic, but Wisconsin scored higher overall only because they had a much higher percentage of white students. Similarly, the only way the polls have been good for Trump the way the pollsters are claiming is if uneducated rural white people dominate the polling places. 

And that takes us right back to the voter enthusiasm environment. 

But, again, we don't know shit about fuck because it's all poll-based. But the reason for optimism is that the human pollsters are claiming a horserace after massaging the data, but the data itself is showing a probable Harris victory. After the pollsters have significantly underestimate D success in every election since Dobbs.

[SydneyCarton 47,924]

1 minute ago, babysdaddy said:

What happens if Trump wins by a huge margin?  Would that make you rethink your information diet? 

If Trump wins, it would have been supported by polling, Wall Street, and a vast majority of MSM. If Harris wins a close one, that can generally also be squared with polling and coverage. Harris winning in a landslide would be well outside of what anyone was predicting save some folks here. Which was the original point of the post, to ask that guy what it would take to change his opinion if such a huge, unexpected outlier were to happen. Or if he'd just assume Stolen Election. So the onus isn't on ME to answer, becuase I'm not the one who accused everyone here of being more biased than MSNBC.

that being said, If trump wins a huge blowout EC and Popular Vote victory, I'd sure as shit fucking condemn the polling, absoluutely. That being said, I'm fucking nervous as shit over here, so I'm not predicting ANY kind of massive victory for either side, honestly. 

[Rex Kramer 1,302]

12 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I've been vacillating back and forth between doom and hope for weeks now depending on how much Js1 keeps the hopium flowing vs. how many people in my day to day life tell me they think Trump wins in a route.

The thing that I keep going back to is how much better I feel now vs. the morning after that Biden/Trump debate. My wife went to bed early that night and I remember telling her how fucked we were first thing the next morning. Kamala has played her hand just about as perfectly as she could have and we were fully fucking cooked before Biden decided to do the right thing.

 

ETA: This is what I think happens unless there is too much fuck shit going on in GA and it flips back red.

I think AZ, GA, and NC going Trump. 270-268 for Kamala.

Edited November 5 by Rex Kramer

[aggie08 21,436]

4 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

What happens if Trump wins by a huge margin?  Would that make you rethink your information diet? 

Absolutely. 

But you know damn well that he isn't winning the popular vote. So there's no reality where people who like what Trump is selling--or just hate the Democratic agenda enough to vote for him--is the majority in this country.

[The Royal We 3,066]

3 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I think AZ, GA, and NC going Trump. 270-268 for Kamala.

 

I sure as hell hope that's not what happens. Anything that close has the potential to get nasty as the magats try to tip the scales in any way possible.

[texastough 1,129]

2 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

^^^

Lulz. Surly Cloak Roomers make Fox News and MSNBC seem unbiased. 

I've been around since shaggy. In fact I joined after lurking so I could post the Roman "both tacos" conversation (if you remember that). So I know who posts in here thank you very much.

And I'm not just talking about cloak room, but across the board I've gotten news/info here earlier and more accurately than anywhere else for years and years now.

[Rex Kramer 1,302]

16 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

 

I sure as hell hope that's not what happens. Anything that close has the potential to get nasty as the magats try to tip the scales in any way possible.

Oh I fully expect that. But you’re right - the closer it is the more the likelihood for whining, lawsuits, general shenanigans and civil war. 

[Valmy77 13,116]

2 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

^^^

Lulz. Surly Cloak Roomers make Fox News and MSNBC seem unbiased. 

I mean I am here for a hopium.

Though my problem with CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News has never been their bias, it is the fact they are idiots. Or at least produce programming for idiots. If they had a pro-Trump bias but overall did a good job reporting the news I could tolerate the bias.

[SpiralOut 1,809]

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American people, but I think Harris ends up with a comfortable win.

The only thing that has Trump close in this race are the polls.  And we all know the polls are shit.  They've been shit.  They'll continue to be shit.  Literally every other single thing is pointing to a wide Harris win.  

Trump's tiny rallies.

Trump's total embrasure of racism and foot-in-mouth stunts like with the Puerto Rico nonsense.

Trump's gutting of the RNC to fund his own trials which has led to a poorly run national campaign.

A metric fuck load of Republicans of all stripes coming out to support the Democratic nominee which is unprecedented.

He's a convicted felon now.

He's old as fuck and gross.  

He has zero real policy plans outside of the ones given to him by the ghouls of Project 2025, which has been blasted out far and wide for everyone to see what a hellscape it would be.

Oh, and he and the Republicans managed to piss off at least half of the voting public by overturning Roe v. Wade.  The Republicans made abortion the hot button issue and then those idiots actually went and did something about it.  Women voters are going to make all the difference today.

This won't be close.  Pollsters trying to cover their ass while also keeping people engaged by pretending it's a neck and neck race is the only reason Trump seems like he has a chance.  Remember, this orange cunt only beat the most unlikeable Democratic candidate in history by 75k votes spread over multiple states to take the EC win.  And that was back before he did the worst job of all time as President and everyone got a good look at who he truly is.  It's been nine years of never ending shit since then.  People are tired of it.  That's why an old as fuck, milquetoast gaffe machine like Biden crushed him last time around.  This time will be no different.  Just wider for Kamala.