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2024 Presidential Election Prediction Thread

TeeDubya

By TeeDubya
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4th&Five

4th&Five 41,461

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, SpiralOut said:

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American people, but I think Harris ends up with a comfortable win.

The only thing that has Trump close in this race are the polls.  And we all know the polls are shit.  They've been shit.  They'll continue to be shit.  Literally every other single thing is pointing to a wide Harris win.  

Trump's tiny rallies.

Trump's total embrasure of racism and foot-in-mouth stunts like with the Puerto Rico nonsense.

Trump's gutting of the RNC to fund his own trials which has led to a poorly run national campaign.

A metric fuck load of Republicans of all stripes coming out to support the Democratic nominee which is unprecedented.

He's a convicted felon now.

He's old as fuck and gross.  

He has zero real policy plans outside of the ones given to him by the ghouls of Project 2025, which has been blasted out far and wide for everyone to see what a hellscape it would be.

Oh, and he and the Republicans managed to piss off at least half of the voting public by overturning Roe v. Wade.  The Republicans made abortion the hot button issue and then those idiots actually went and did something about it.  Women voters are going to make all the difference today.

This won't be close.  Pollsters trying to cover their ass while also keeping people engaged by pretending it's a neck and neck race is the only reason Trump seems like he has a chance.  Remember, this orange cunt only beat the most unlikeable Democratic candidate in history by 75k votes spread over multiple states to take the EC win.  And that was back before he did the worst job of all time as President and everyone got a good look at who he truly is.  It's been nine years of never ending shit since then.  People are tired of it.  That's why an old as fuck, milquetoast gaffe machine like Biden crushed him last time around.  This time will be no different.  Just wider for Kamala. 

Vein GIFs | Tenor

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ShaggyBevo RIP

ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868

Posted
Posted
I feel really good about the Blue Wall and GA. What are y'all thinking on NC, AZ and NV?
Seems to me North Carolina is the most likely of the 3, followed by NV and AZ. 
I would have had that AZ, NV, NC a week ago. 
 

She takes all of them.

I’m in Maricopa they is very little Trump signs. These are McCain Republicans.

People really need to think about how many voted Nikki Haley in the GOP primaries.
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Valmy77

Valmy77 13,094

Posted
Posted (edited)

RFK Jr dominating Rush County, Indiana so far.

Is that...a mistake? Trump with 1% of the vote with 36% of the vote in.

Is this another Pat Buchanan situation?

Edit: Ok reporting fuckup. Knew it was too funny to be true.

Edited by Valmy77
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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1,302

Posted
Posted
Just now, Stunns38 said:


This is scary how likely this scenario may be. He may not even need Pennsylvania.

He needs PA. I don’t see him winning any Midwest swing states. In fact they’re all blue likelies now. It appears he faces a tougher road to win GA than any Midwest swings, though Trump’s polling lead in GA is equal to Harris’s WI lead. He must have PA. 

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Rex Kramer

Rex Kramer 1,302

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Stunns38 said:


Not if he wins Michigan and Wisconsin in addition to those 3(without Penn). He loses Georgia, I think he loses the entire race.

I think he’ll win GA. He has no shot in MI. He has a slight shot in WI but I see that going Harris’ way. I also see him winning NC. This race will come down to PA. 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11,777

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Republicans need the richest man in the world, RFK, Jill Stein, and Russia to maybe get their candidate to win the electoral college tonight. Really sad time for the conservative movement. 

Conservative?

I thought this was about hating brown people…..

/MAGA 

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Vegas64

Vegas64 665

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I think he’ll win GA. He has no shot in MI. He has a slight shot in WI but I see that going Harris’ way. I also see him winning NC. This race will come down to PA. 

The guy on MSNBC with the Harris sign in the back just said whomever wins NC, wins the Presidency. 

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BevoAbyss

BevoAbyss 2,057

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Really sad time for the conservative movement. 

Sad? Why?

Hell, they already own the Supreme Court for decades. They got Roe overturned, a Reagan era dream. Bush's "faith based" policies are now all MAGA.

Another Trump win and they get to implement their Christian 2025 Gilead wet dream. And don't forget the tax cuts for billionaires.  (as they crash the economy).

Looks like a lot of Reagan era to me. 

 

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SpiralOut

SpiralOut 1,809

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, choripan said:

Well fuck, these projections are making it look like my prediction might be off.

If we lived in a reasonable, sane world your prediction would be spot on.  Alas, there are a lot of room temperature IQs and awful, awful people around.

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aggie08

aggie08 21,434

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Absolutely. 

But you know damn well that he isn't winning the popular vote. So there's no reality where people who like what Trump is selling--or just hate the Democratic agenda enough to vote for him--is the majority in this country.

Welp, something tells me I'll be reminded of this post a few times tomorrow. Deservedly so. I thought the EC would be close, but never for a second thought that the popular vote was in any doubt. Wow.

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BLKNSTY

BLKNSTY 289

Posted
Posted

Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada go Trump. Sorry folks, I’ve been on this ride before and for whatever reason we seem to never learn our lesson - WW will break 55%+ Trump and Latinos won’t be far behind. Hope I’m wrong though.

did not think I’d have to add Wisconsin to this. Fuck.
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aggie08

aggie08 21,434

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

What happens if Trump wins by a huge margin?  Would that make you rethink your information diet? 

Definitely going to have to now. 

I think--even with how many of us actually ARE former reliable R voters--we all recognize that this is a bubble. And being educated and not having to live paycheck to paycheck is another bubble. The talks of a Kamala blowout were always hopium, but I felt the pollsters essentially predicting a coin flip were right on. I would have had to consume something to the right of Fox News to think that this reality was even a slight possibility.

I'd wager that over 75% of my closest friends, family, and co-workers probably voted for Trump yesterday. Most educated and well-off themselves. So I'm not totally insular, and I obviously know Trump voters who aren't dumb, conspiracy-theorist nutjobs.

While it would be easy to say, "Oh, it's just because, at the end of the day, people vote with their wallets no matter who that person is." But I feel like there's more to it than that to get this many non-traditional MAGA votes aligned on the side of someone who sounds absolutely batshit crazy every time he opens his mouth. So I am now out of touch with the majority of the electorate. 

Anecdotally, the transgender stuff probably made a bigger impact than expected. Yes, on the extremes, the GOP went to full-on transphobia and told hateful lies about surgeries in schools, litter boxes, and literally and girl who looked too masculine. But I know many parents with more reasonable concerns--unfounded or otherwise--and the Dems certainly didn't do much to reach out to quell those fears in a rapidly changing world.

Edited by aggie08
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Frank Drebin

Frank Drebin 5,617

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Republicans need the richest man in the world, RFK, Jill Stein, and Russia to maybe get their candidate to win the electoral college tonight. Really sad time for the conservative movement. 

Yeah.  Very sad.  

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Frank Drebin

Frank Drebin 5,617

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

So MJ at 55% and Abortion at 57% in Florida (both will not pass since they need 60%) but Trump rolled there.....so fucking stupid.  

Makes sense to me.  They are and should have always been state law issues.  

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ulukinatme

ulukinatme 1,760

Posted
Posted
On 10/22/2024 at 3:05 PM, Helobious said:

I didn’t even notice that. I still think Kamala wins the popular vote but electoral map looks like this. Virginia should be a shade darker blue, clicked one two many times I guess

IMG_4847.thumb.jpeg.140a5754bee1d0056da0d28ef3e30e3b.jpeg

This map and @SimonBolivar's were the only ones that ended up being close.

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