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2025 HOF Class


TheStoicPaisano

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  • 2 weeks later...

Pedroia has a good case, especially if you consider that he had to retire early because of injury -- if he gets the Kirby Puckett treatment from voters, he'll get in.  

Besides CC and Ichiro, he's the new guy most likely to get elected.  

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JoePos:

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Here’s the thing about this year’s Classic Baseball Era Hall of Fame ballot… it feels very familiar. No, being honest, it’s more than that. It feels TOO familiar. We’ve gone round and round and round and round about most of these players for so long, that it doesn’t feel like there’s anything new to say, and it doesn’t feel like there’s any particularly compelling reason we’re doing all this again. And if I’m saying that—even as one of the most obsessed Baseball Hall of Fame people on Planet Earth—I’m not entirely sure that this thing is capturing the imagination of the average baseball fan.

But here we are again, anyway.

We need to start with the Negro leagues players—Vic Harris and, especially, John Donaldson—because they’re the only two players on the ballot who have not been argued about for decades.

Reminder that the results of the vote will be announced live on MLB Network at 7:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.


Vic Harris
Appeared on 2022 ballot, received 68.5% of the vote.

Vic Harris was a line-drive-hitting outfielder for many years and many different Negro leagues teams, but I think he’s on the ballot mostly as the ultra-successful manager of the great Homestead Grays teams of the 1930s and 1940s. He managed the incredible Josh Gibson-Buck Leonard teams of the 1930s and early 1940s—at one point, his Grays won six consecutive pennants—but he also was manager of the 1948 Grays, after Gibson and when Leonard was at the end. That team, led by the incomparable Luke Easter, won the Negro Leagues World Series, Harris’ third championship. Harris is credited with a .633 winning percentage, nine pennants, and those three World Series championships.

Will he get in? There’s nobody else on the ballot who’s anything like him, so that gives him a pretty decent edge. He has been on one veterans ballot, that was in 2022, and he fell just two votes shy, so I’d say he has an excellent shot.


John Donaldson
Appeared on 2022 ballot, received 50% of the vote.

You probably know all about the John Donaldson Network, a group of researchers, led by Peter Gorton, who have dedicated themselves for years to finding every single win John Donaldson had as a pitcher, going all the way back to 1908. Donaldson was a wonder—he was lefty pitcher who barnstormed across America, thrilling fans with his blazing fastball and great charm. Buck O’Neil used to say that John Donaldson was the pitcher that Satchel Paige emulated. The Network has so far verified 428 Donaldson wins and 5,295 strikeouts.

Will he get in? Well, he certainly should get in. I thought for sure he’d get in back in 2022. Donaldson is one of those unusual cases where we actually LEARNED NEW THINGS about him long after his retirement. While the Hall of Fame arguments usually go in circles, the Donaldson story is a living and breathing one, thanks to the Network. He got 50% of the vote in 2022. Will he get four more votes this time? I’m skeptical. It’s possible they would vote in both of the Negro leaguers, but my suspicion is that Vic Harris will get the nod and Donaldson will have to wait until the next election.

Now, we come to the six players who have been on ballot after ballot after ballot through the years. Anyone who has followed the Hall of Fame, even at a casual level, has heard the arguments for and against these six players for a very, very long time. I believe at least one of them will get elected. But which one?


Dick Allen
Has appeared on 20 ballots.

Was on the BBWAA ballot 15 times, topping out at 18.9%.

Was on the 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2015 and 2022 veterans ballots. In 2015 and 2022, he finished one vote shy of election.

Dick Allen was a ferocious slugger. He was also the first great Black player in Philadelphia Phillies history. In 1964, at age 22, with racial tensions running high in Philadelphia, he had one of the greatest rookie seasons in baseball history (.318/.382/.557, led league in runs, triples and total bases). Later, in Chicago, he won the 1972 MVP award and was just 10 batting points away from winning the Triple Crown. He twice led the league in home runs and had 58.7 career WAR.


Will he get in? I’ll admit: Dick Allen’s Hall of Fame journey has me completely baffled. For almost 40 years, it was widely accepted that Allen was NOT a Hall of Famer. He never even got one-fifth of the BBWAA vote. Allen was a controversial figure for any number of reasons—some fair, some unfair—and in his first year on the ballot, 1983, he got just 14 votes, less than half of what Roy Face received. He was put back on the ballot in 1985, and just barely got the 5% necessary to keep him there.

But as the years went on and many of the controversies faded from memory and Allen’s role as a pioneer became clearer, he rapidly gained support. I will never forget the heartbroken look on Jim Bunning’s face when he had to announce that Allen fell one vote shy in 2015. “I feel like I failed him,” Bunning told me. Allen died in 2020, less than a year before he AGAIN fell one vote shy in the voting. So, now what? Part of me thinks that Allen finally gets that final vote and is elected. Part of me thinks that the voters will move on to one of the living candidates. I don’t even have a guess what will happen here.


Ken Boyer
Has appeared on 21 ballots.

Was on the BBWAA ballot 15 times, topping out at 25.5%.

Was on the 2003, 2005, 2007, 2012, 2015 and 2022 veterans ballots. In the last three, he did not receive enough votes for the Hall of Fame to even announce his total.

For 10 years, 1955-1964, Ken Boyer appeared in 10 All-Star Games, won five Gold Gloves, won the 1964 MVP and received MVP votes in six other years. Over that decade, he was a .300 hitter with power, a breathtaking defender and an admired leader—he averaged 5.6 WAR over the decade. He played on for another five seasons, bouncing from St. Louis to New York to Chicago to Los Angeles.

Will he get in? He will not. In theory, Boyer has a very strong Hall of Fame case. I think he’s a worthy Hall of Famer—but it seems clear to me that case has been heard, and it has been firmly denied. When he came on the BBWAA ballot in 1975, I suspect many voters connected him more to those blah final years rather than his strong prime. He got only nine votes that year. In fact, in his first five years on the ballot, he got less than 5% of the vote. When he was put back on the ballot in 1985, he did receive significantly more support, but never anything close to even 50%, much less 75%. He’s been a regular on the veterans ballots, and the story has been the same. It’s unclear to me why he’s on this ballot.


Steve Garvey
Has appeared on 19 ballots.

Was on the BBWAA ballot 15 times, and three times got between 41 and 43% of the vote.

Was on the 2011, 2014, 2018 and 2020 veterans ballots, and for the first time, in 2020, received enough votes to register. He got six of the 16 votes.

Steve Garvey was one of the most famous players of the 1970s and early 1980s. They called him Captain America and Mr. Clean, and he appeared constantly on magazine covers and game shows, and he won the 1974 MVP award. Garvey was a particular kind of player, he hit .300, banged 200 hits, drove in 100 runs, never walked, and won Gold Gloves. He cracked 2,599 hits in his career and excelled in the postseason, twice winning National League Championship Series MVPs.

Will he get in? I don’t think so but… who knows? Garvey has his superfans. I imagine there are at least one of two of them on the committee, and they will just keep on fighting for the guy. And, hey, Garvey is very much a part of baseball history. So my guess is, no, and I don’t think he will get all that close. But it would not shock me if Garvey does really well in the voting.


Tommy John
Has appeared on 19 ballots.

Was on the BBWAA ballot 15 times and topped out at 31.7% of the vote in his final year.

Was on the 2011, 2014, 2018 and 2020 veterans ballots and never received enough votes to register.

Tommy John won 288 games in his career despite missing the entire 1975 season while undergoing the first elbow surgery that would be named for him. If John had won 12 more regular-season games—and he had 22 games with a 70+ Game Score that he either lost or got a no-decision—he’d definitely have a plaque in the Hall of Fame. Tommy John induced 604 double plays—142 more than any other pitcher since they started keeping track. That’s a pretty staggering thing.

Will he get in? OK, so I’m going to go out on a limb here and say… yes. I think Tommy John will get elected. There’s no history at all to suggest that he will get elected. He has not received any support at all from veterans committees the four previous times he made the ballot. But I think three factors will get him in this time.

I really think that the committee will want to elect a living candidate.

I think the fact that we’re always talking about Tommy John surgeries will play in his favor, both because he was a pioneer and also because it has just kept his name in the news.

I think as starter wins disappear from the game, there will be some momentum for rewarding John’s super-impressive total of 288.

Now, I should add: I don’t know how popular or unpopular John is around baseball. He suggested a few months ago that he was kept from the Hall of Fame because of his support of Donald Trump, which was (A) Ridiculous and more than a little bit sad, considering that he has been on Hall of Fame ballots since 1995, when Donald Trump was married to Ivana, and they ate pizza crust-first in a Pizza Hut commercial; (B) The first I or anyone I know had ever heard of Tommy John’s political leanings; (C) A hint that maybe John has said a few things through the years that he believes have alienated other baseball people. My own experiences with John have been perfectly fine, but if the committee is filled with people who don’t like Tommy John, no, he won’t get elected. Assuming that people don’t have strong anti-John views, I think he’s the favorite among non-Negro leaguers to get in.

 


Dave Parker
Has appeared on 18 ballots.

Was on the BBWAA ballot 15 times and topped out at 24.5% in his second year.

Was on the 2014, 2018 and 2020 ballots and never received enough votes to register.

From 1975 to 1979, Dave Parker was widely regarded as the best player in baseball—or if not THE best, he was prominent in the photograph. Over those five seasons, he hit .321/.377/.532, won an MVP award, finished third in the balloting two other years, took home three gold Gloves, stole his share of bases, etc. He then had a five-year nightmare as he battled drugs, his weight and very angry Pittsburgh Pirates fans. He reemerged in his Cincinnati hometown, and in 1985, had a resurgent season, hitting .312 with 32 doubles, 34 homers and league-leading 125 RBIs—he finished second in the MVP voting that year. In all, he cracked 526 doubles, 339 homers and, when he retired in 1992, he was 29th on the all-time total bases list, squeezed between Nap Lajoie and Mike Schmidt.

Will he get in? Probably not. Parker certainly has his supporters. His 2,712 career hits is the most for anyone on the ballot, and sometimes the veterans committee falls in love with high hit totals (see Baines, Harold). Parker has also been dealing with various health issues—he was diagnosed with Parkinson’s more than a decade ago—but he’s remained active, and just seeing the Cobra out and about reminds you how wonderful he was as a young player. BUT… veterans committees have been decidedly unpersuaded by his Hall of Fame case, and I’m just not seeing why there would be any real movement on him.


Luis Tiant
Has appeared on 21 ballots.

Was on the BBWAA ballot 15 times and topped out at 30.9% his first year.

Was on the 2005, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2018 veterans ballots and has not registered in any of his last three ballots.

El Tiante was a wonder. I don’t think there’s much I can add beyond what I wrote the day he died, back in October.

Will he get in? Whew. So I think this could go a couple different ways. Tiant’s recent death could rally sympathy and support from the committee. On the other hand, Tiant has never gotten much veterans’ support. In 2018, the committee almost unanimously voted in Jack Morris while not giving Tiant a second glance, even though Tiant was probably the superior pitcher. On the other hand, his passing did give people a chance to look back on his career and appreciate it anew. On the other hand, the committee might want to honor someone living, a sentiment I strongly agree with. I don’t think Tiant gets elected. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised, though, if he does.

So, if I had a vote and were allowed to vote for four, and it was purely choosing the four best candidates—with no consideration for whether the candidates were living or not—I’d probably vote for Harris, Donaldson, Tiant and Allen.

If I had an ACTUAL vote, though, I’d very much want to vote for living candidates. So I’d probably vote for Donaldson, Allen, John and Parker.

 

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On 12/8/2024 at 6:49 PM, Scraps said:

Dave Parker and Dick Allen in

Dick Allen's first 10 years are pretty fucking great considering the park he played in.  I think he deserved it sooner. 58.7 WAR in 15 years is pretty damn good.

OPS+ top 25 all time at 156. higher than.............................Henry Aaron

I'm meh on Parker.  Was one of the most feared hitters in the league for 5 or 6 years and a rocket arm.  I'd say no because his prime was really too short.  yes a couple of years with Reds and one with A's later career were good but not enough sustained level of success.  

Would have rather seen Tiant IMO.

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