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Gandalfish

Gandalfish 329

Posted
Posted

A Comprehensive List of my Fears/Anxieties Regarding Trump 2.0:

These are organized based on my estimation of their probability.

  1. Foreign Policy - I fundamentally disagree with Trump on most all foreign policy issues, the chances of me being disappointed by the next 4 years of foreign policy are near 100%. (I will give credit to Trump for not being a Neocon war hawk)
    1. Ukraine - Ukraine will not exist as an independent country by 2026. Their only chance is Europe stepping up big, on their own. (98%)
    2. NATO - I don't think he could manage to withdraw us from NATO, but it's possible. I'm more concerned with just a general sabotaging of the alliance with the way he treats our democratic allies. (weakening NATO 95%, leaving NATO 10%)
    3. Authoritarians - Trump has well established his respect for leaders such as Putin, Orbán & Kim Jong Un. The US cozying to these regimes is bad news for the world (95%)
    4. Taiwan - As commander if chief, I don't see Trump deciding to support Taiwan if it came to invasion. I suspect there is a good chance this remains untested, as I'm not sure China has the stomach for that right now. (40%)
    5. The Middle East - I see Trump as a bit of a wild card here. This is a mess, and no president has ever done that great of a job with it. I just don't trust Trump's judgment. (I think there is a 90% chance he will really annoy me with his policy, and a 30% he really fucks something up)
  2. Climate Change - Donald Trump isn't responsible for Climate change, but he sure as hell isn't going to help matters. He's promising to get rid of climate regulations and I believe him. (99.9%)
  3. Racism - Trump's language encourages and empowers the worst racists in the country. If we've made 10 steps forward on the issues of racism in this country since the 1950's, prepare to take a few back. (99%)
  4. Economic Policy - Trump has never seemed super key on cutting benefits (unlike many of his Republican brethren) But he does love cutting taxes, most of those benefits will go the wealthy. (The chances of his annoying me with his Economic policy in some small/medium way are 95%)
    1. The Tariffs - He has said he will do this. Will he? Who knows. It's bad policy that will disproportionately affect the poorest Americans, and poorest people in general, globally. I'm not exactly a doomsayer on Tariffs. The entire Global Economy is a pretty resilient creature, it will bounce back. My point is, why shock it with bad policy? (This is hard to call, I say it has a 75% of happening in one form or another - probably smaller than feared)
    2. Mass deportations - He has said he will do this. Will he? Who knows. This would be a lot more difficult to actually pull off. I'm obviously against it from a humanitarian standpoint. However, I'm putting it in the economic policy category because if you actually managed to Deport 18 million people who are all either desperately seeking work, or working their asses of and spending nearly every penny they make on food, shelter and necessities, it would be disastrous for the US economy. Again, the US economy is pretty resilient, but why enact terrible policy and make everyone's lives worse? (Odds at 40%)
  5. Revenge Tour - He has issued lots of vague (some less vague) threats against various people or groups that have wronged him in some way over the years. There has been ominous talk about the "enemy within". He certainly has the power to "weaponize" the justice department. If you think the Justice department has already been "weaponized", does that make it ok? I think a lot of Democrats really go off the rails with this category of fears (Don't take that as an attack, your fears are valid). I suspect that the odds of some of this happening are near 100%. The question is the degree. I just don't think it will rise to the level many Democrats fear.
  6. Degradation of democracy - This is a man that actively fought the results of the 2020 election, has continued to call it stolen despite not having any credible evidence to support it. It's a mantra, a dogma. This is man that frequently makes a lot of "jokes" and cute comments about being a dictator or running for third terms. I personally liken his re-election to smearing shit on the face of democracy. It's extremely unpleasant, not good for you, but you'll likely survive and really just need to take a bath.
    1. Further corruption of the judicial system - They will continue to place extremely partisan judges, and I don't just mean conservative, I mean people that will "play ball" for Trump, and give him what he wants. Members of the cult of personality. It's possible a supreme court spot could open up, but not super likely they would be replacing a liberal justice. (100%)
    2. Gerrymandering - This is a fundamental flaw in our democracy. Both sides have taken advantage of it. I'd argue Republicans have used it more effectively in recent history. It is wrong for the party in power to manipulate how elections are done in order to maximize/extend their power. It will be full speed ahead again. (100%)
    3. Voter suppression - This can take all kinds of forms, some overt, most more subtle. (Subtle, less dramatic forms 100%. Extreme, overt suppression 25%)
    4. Actual structural changes to our government - This could take the form of passing anti-democratic laws, or executive order power-grabs that go uncontested by a Republican congress. The purpose of these would be to solidify Republican control of the government to be permanent. (10%)
    5. Boldly become a dictator - In this scenario, the US either no longer has elections or some kind of sham/one-party elections like Russia. I certainly understand why Democrats fear this. I think it's probably overblown. (1%)\

 

Anyway, that is the sum of my fears. It's not pretty, I'm not happy about it, but life goes on. I have shit to do.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18215

Posted
Posted
Just now, Gandalfish said:

A Comprehensive List of my Fears/Anxieties Regarding Trump 2.0:

These are organized based on my estimation of their probability.

  1. Foreign Policy - I fundamentally disagree with Trump on most all foreign policy issues, the chances of me being disappointed by the next 4 years of foreign policy are near 100%. (I will give credit to Trump for not being a Neocon war hawk)
    1. Ukraine - Ukraine will not exist as an independent country by 2026. Their only chance is Europe stepping up big, on their own. (98%)
    2. NATO - I don't think he could manage to withdraw us from NATO, but it's possible. I'm more concerned with just a general sabotaging of the alliance with the way he treats our democratic allies. (weakening NATO 95%, leaving NATO 10%)
    3. Authoritarians - Trump has well established his respect for leaders such as Putin, Orbán & Kim Jong Un. The US cozying to these regimes is bad news for the world (95%)
    4. Taiwan - As commander if chief, I don't see Trump deciding to support Taiwan if it came to invasion. I suspect there is a good chance this remains untested, as I'm not sure China has the stomach for that right now. (40%)
    5. The Middle East - I see Trump as a bit of a wild card here. This is a mess, and no president has ever done that great of a job with it. I just don't trust Trump's judgment. (I think there is a 90% chance he will really annoy me with his policy, and a 30% he really fucks something up)
  2. Climate Change - Donald Trump isn't responsible for Climate change, but he sure as hell isn't going to help matters. He's promising to get rid of climate regulations and I believe him. (99.9%)
  3. Racism - Trump's language encourages and empowers the worst racists in the country. If we've made 10 steps forward on the issues of racism in this country since the 1950's, prepare to take a few back. (99%)
  4. Economic Policy - Trump has never seemed super key on cutting benefits (unlike many of his Republican brethren) But he does love cutting taxes, most of those benefits will go the wealthy. (The chances of his annoying me with his Economic policy in some small/medium way are 95%)
    1. The Tariffs - He has said he will do this. Will he? Who knows. It's bad policy that will disproportionately affect the poorest Americans, and poorest people in general, globally. I'm not exactly a doomsayer on Tariffs. The entire Global Economy is a pretty resilient creature, it will bounce back. My point is, why shock it with bad policy? (This is hard to call, I say it has a 75% of happening in one form or another - probably smaller than feared)
    2. Mass deportations - He has said he will do this. Will he? Who knows. This would be a lot more difficult to actually pull off. I'm obviously against it from a humanitarian standpoint. However, I'm putting it in the economic policy category because if you actually managed to Deport 18 million people who are all either desperately seeking work, or working their asses of and spending nearly every penny they make on food, shelter and necessities, it would be disastrous for the US economy. Again, the US economy is pretty resilient, but why enact terrible policy and make everyone's lives worse? (Odds at 40%)
  5. Revenge Tour - He has issued lots of vague (some less vague) threats against various people or groups that have wronged him in some way over the years. There has been ominous talk about the "enemy within". He certainly has the power to "weaponize" the justice department. If you think the Justice department has already been "weaponized", does that make it ok? I think a lot of Democrats really go off the rails with this category of fears (Don't take that as an attack, your fears are valid). I suspect that the odds of some of this happening are near 100%. The question is the degree. I just don't think it will rise to the level many Democrats fear.
  6. Degradation of democracy - This is a man that actively fought the results of the 2020 election, has continued to call it stolen despite not having any credible evidence to support it. It's a mantra, a dogma. This is man that frequently makes a lot of "jokes" and cute comments about being a dictator or running for third terms. I personally liken his re-election to smearing shit on the face of democracy. It's extremely unpleasant, not good for you, but you'll likely survive and really just need to take a bath.
    1. Further corruption of the judicial system - They will continue to place extremely partisan judges, and I don't just mean conservative, I mean people that will "play ball" for Trump, and give him what he wants. Members of the cult of personality. It's possible a supreme court spot could open up, but not super likely they would be replacing a liberal justice. (100%)
    2. Gerrymandering - This is a fundamental flaw in our democracy. Both sides have taken advantage of it. I'd argue Republicans have used it more effectively in recent history. It is wrong for the party in power to manipulate how elections are done in order to maximize/extend their power. It will be full speed ahead again. (100%)
    3. Voter suppression - This can take all kinds of forms, some overt, most more subtle. (Subtle, less dramatic forms 100%. Extreme, overt suppression 25%)
    4. Actual structural changes to our government - This could take the form of passing anti-democratic laws, or executive order power-grabs that go uncontested by a Republican congress. The purpose of these would be to solidify Republican control of the government to be permanent. (10%)
    5. Boldly become a dictator - In this scenario, the US either no longer has elections or some kind of sham/one-party elections like Russia. I certainly understand why Democrats fear this. I think it's probably overblown. (1%)\

 

Anyway, that is the sum of my fears. It's not pretty, I'm not happy about it, but life goes on. I have shit to do.

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Constant

Constant 6661

Posted
Posted
Just now, Macklemore said:

You sound drunker than usual. You’re getting an early start today!! Well done! Cloak Room feels like an empty Bryant-Denny Stadium after we beat Alabama last year with just our fans in burnt orange singing the Eyes. Not a better feeling in the world than occupying enemy territory.

Airplane Flight GIF by Duracell
 

Matching energies here. Republicans never fail to surprise me with how comfortable they are being the most annoying ones in the room.

It’s interesting that you view Americans with opposing views as enemies. I have a feeling that this sense of pride might fade as soon as he starts the work, because he’ll likely go back to embarrassing both this country and Republicans on a daily basis. I’d guess your posting rate will drop by the second or third scandal.

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linux

linux 1543

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

You posted a graph with no date or link to where you found it. The VOA article I posted was from LAST WEEK.

Fine mine is from Nov 3

https://www.pagina12.com.ar/779819-la-imagen-de-javier-milei-sigue-en-numeros-muy-negativos 

Use google translate but the graph is self apperant the biggest one is extreme negative reaction as well, his cult is at 18% and dropping rapidly Donny's cult was always around 45% which is extremely important for people to understand that fuck around and find out. We need accelerationism is the only cure for the disease, people need the cold water bath.

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Frank Drebin

Frank Drebin 5482

Posted
Posted
Just now, Constant said:

m.

It’s interesting that you view Americans with opposing views as enemies.

Glad the Democrats abstain from such viewpoints.  Despite us all being deplorable racist, sexist, fascist, and really dumb knuckle draggers.

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Constant

Constant 6661

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Frank Drebin said:

Glad the Democrats abstain from such viewpoints.  Despite us all being deplorable racist, sexist, fascist, and really dumb knuckle draggers.

You certainly are those. But you aren’t my enemy. The hope is to get you to not to be racist, sexist, fascist, or dumb knuckle draggers. It’s a deep hole of hope, but I still have hope for you. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11308

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Gandalfish said:

I was actually kind of trying to tie in to the Quinn Ewers thread (🙃)

*In before negative rep*

I respect the artistic intent, but thats like crossing the streams in Ghostbusters.

all matter expands outward at the speed of light

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29654

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

You sound drunker than usual. You’re getting an early start today!! Well done! Cloak Room feels like an empty Bryant-Denny Stadium after we beat Alabama last year with just our fans in burnt orange singing the Eyes. Not a better feeling in the world than occupying enemy territory.

You slunk into the stadium after the game was over, hiding your voice and reason from light and examination.

The world has so much love and respect for snowflakes who show up to gloat after avoiding the fight.

Bravo, sir!

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Pam Cummings

Pam Cummings 9462

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RomaVicta said:

You slunk into the stadium after the game was over, hiding your voice and reason from light and examination.

The world has so much love and respect for snowflakes who show up to gloat after avoiding the fight.

Bravo, sir!

pussies were nowhere to be found when they didn't get their way. Fuckin faces on milk cartons.

 

 

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GenXer

GenXer 2663

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, linux said:

As for Joe, his legacy was the return of Trump, that is the only thing he will be remembered for.

I’m always gonna remember the road construction from the infrastructure funding. I have a multi-year project south of me that cuts off one major thoroughfare, another road project south of me but north of the multi-year project, and now there’s resurfacing of the roads in my neighborhood. They’re closing in on me.

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Constant

Constant 6661

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

…Nazi, Hitler, Goerbbels…

Again, all correctly applied to Trump and his messaging - often directly referencing the third reich propaganda machine. 

Edited by Constant
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Macklemore

Macklemore 2861

Posted
Posted (edited)

Iran

20 minutes ago, Gandalfish said:

A Comprehensive List of my Fears/Anxieties Regarding Trump 2.0:

These are organized based on my estimation of their probability.

  1. Foreign Policy - I fundamentally disagree with Trump on most all foreign policy issues, the chances of me being disappointed by the next 4 years of foreign policy are near 100%. (I will give credit to Trump for not being a Neocon war hawk)
    1. The Middle East - I see Trump as a bit of a wild card here. This is a mess, and no president has ever done that great of a job with it. I just don't trust Trump's judgment. (I think there is a 90% chance he will really annoy me with his policy, and a 30% he really fucks something up)

The prospects of toppling the Islamic Republic without an American invasion have never been better than during Trump’s 2nd term. Khamenei is close to dying and Trump will re-impose maximum pressure which was the most effective posture that any US President has employed against the mullahs and shook the foundations of the regime. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi stated this week on Patrick Bet-David’s show that he is willing to serve as the transitional leader of the country after the mullahs flee. Israel is providing covert assistance. Trump will get credit for it happening and it will be the biggest foreign policy coup since Reagan defeated the Soviet Union.

Trump is extremely popular in the Iranian diaspora and in Iran because of his policies with respect to Iran.

Edited by Macklemore
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linux

linux 1543

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Macklemore said:

Iran

The prospects of toppling the Islamic Republic without an American invasion had never been better during Trump’s 2nd term. Khamenei is close to dying and Trump will re-impose maximum pressure which was the most effective posture that any US President has employed against the mullahs and shook the foundations of the regime. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi stated this week on Patrick Bet-David’s show that he is willing to serve as the transitional leader of the country after the mullahs flee. Israel is providing covert assistance. Trump will get credit for it happening and it will be the biggest foreign policy coup since Reagan defeated the Soviet Union.

 

Yeah because Trump toppled the Iranian regime last time, idiot, only an invasion would work and I actually do see it happening, good luck liberating Iran with your blood MAGA (and yes I know you are an iranian single issue voter)

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Hate

Hate 20078

Posted
Posted

It’s like I said when Trump was elected the first time…spite is a hell of a drug. Trump is a direct result of spite. I don’t like it. I wish Trump had just stayed on TV so I could very easily choose to ignore him, but that’s not the case. I just want some sense of decorum and class to return to politics, but that isn’t likely in my lifetime. 

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MissingInAction

MissingInAction 24672

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

Glad the Democrats abstain from such viewpoints.  Despite us all being deplorable racist, sexist, fascist, and really dumb knuckle draggers.

Stating a fact is not name calling. Grass is green, the sun is hot, your mom loves my cock.

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29654

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

It's literally not though. JD Vance called him America's Hitler. On the record. Not in some fake Twitter post.

I was being wry. It's correct that many of us use those epithets. They're fair characterizations. I was hoping the second part would be what came through. 

There is no hyperbole in describing the wickedness that was just chosen by a majority of the American people. That choice is the most demoralizing of my life, and I was dumbfounded when W (supposedly) got re-elected.

I complain about reporting, but what these people are is very clear.

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Gandalfish

Gandalfish 329

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Iran

The prospects of toppling the Islamic Republic without an American invasion have never been better than during Trump’s 2nd term. Khamenei is close to dying and Trump will re-impose maximum pressure which was the most effective posture that any US President has employed against the mullahs and shook the foundations of the regime. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi stated this week on Patrick Bet-David’s show that he is willing to serve as the transitional leader of the country after the mullahs flee. Israel is providing covert assistance. Trump will get credit for it happening and it will be the biggest foreign policy coup since Reagan defeated the Soviet Union.

Trump is extremely popular in the Iranian diaspora and in Iran because of his policies with respect to Iran.

Hey, I hope it happens. A relatively bloodless toppling of the Iranian government would be amazing.

To be fair, my post was summing up my fears not my hopes. Maybe in another few days I'll feel capable of summing up my hopes.

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Macklemore

Macklemore 2861

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, linux said:

Yeah because Trump toppled the Iranian regime last time, idiot, only an invasion would work and I actually do see it happening, good luck liberating Iran with your blood MAGA (and yes I know you are an iranian single issue voter)

Hardly a single issue voter but if that makes you feel better then have at it 

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29654

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Gandalfish said:

A relatively bloodless toppling of the Iranian government would be amazing.

I don't know your posting history. Your list of predictions above seems rational.

The sentence above makes me twitch. That's usually the first naive thought leading to a murderous attempt at regime change where we totally miscalculate what it means for us.

Nothing is ever clean. Ever. It's like the absurd notion of "surgical strike" bombing. They're bombs not scalpels. 

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10846

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

So, I guess from now on, only moronic demigods will be able to win the Presidency.  Sounds great. 

dem·a·gogue

/ˈdeməˌɡäɡ/
noun
  1. a political leader who seeks support by appealing to the desires and prejudices of ordinary people rather than by using rational argument.
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Gandalfish

Gandalfish 329

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I don't know your posting history. Your list of predictions above seems rational.

The sentence above makes me twitch. That's usually the first naive thought leading to a murderous attempt at regime change where we totally miscalculate what it means for us.

Nothing is ever clean. Ever. It's like the absurd notion of "surgical strike" bombing. They're bombs not scalpels. 

I was trying to respond civilly to someone that engaged with one of my posts.

I think "A relatively bloodless toppling of the Iranian government" is highly unlikely to occur.

But if somehow a repressive and regionally toxic regime were to fall, and that fall involved relatively few casualties, I'd say that would be a large net positive for the region and the world.

Edited by Gandalfish
Improved the clarity
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GenXer

GenXer 2663

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Hate said:

It’s like I said when Trump was elected the first time…spite is a hell of a drug. Trump is a direct result of spite. I don’t like it. I wish Trump had just stayed on TV so I could very easily choose to ignore him, but that’s not the case. I just want some sense of decorum and class to return to politics, but that isn’t likely in my lifetime. 

Username does not check out

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29654

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Gandalfish said:

I was trying to respond civilly to someone that engaged with one of my posts. I think it's highly unlikely to occur.

But if somehow a repressive and regionally toxic regime were to fall, and that fall involved relatively few casualties, I'd say that would be a large net positive for the region and the world.

Definitely would love to see Iran evolve from theocracy. I just recall stories of our destruction of their democracy and installation of the Shah. You never say that we should do it ourselves. I just can't help twitching at the phraseology. 

Thanks for responding.

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29012

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Pam Cummings said:

Imagine thinking that media isn't consolidated enough, lol

The good news I guess is that if enough people understand the connection between Zaslav and Trump, that alone might be enough to cause a popular armed uprising. 

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Hmbre97

Hmbre97 6269

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Mileslong said:

Good thoughts from Rolling Stone

050b8b4c83c1d5f8dbde4975bc94b772.jpg

 

This sums up why this country is fucked long term. This isn't just about this election but the rise of MAGAism as a whole. Trump has undone all the work over the last 50 years in regard to civil rights for minority groups and has made it OK to be openly racist shitheads again.

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Macanudo

Macanudo 12898

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The good news I guess is that if enough people understand the connection between Zaslav and Trump, that alone might be enough to cause a popular armed uprising. 

Like it did on Tuesday?  Bwahahaha.

As long as the Golden Bachelorette and America's Got Talent are on America isn't doing shit.

 

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Macanudo

Macanudo 12898

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hmbre97 said:

 

This sums up why this country is fucked long term. This isn't just about this election but the rise of MAGAism as a whole. Trump has undone all the work over the last 50 years in regard to civil rights for minority groups and has made it OK to be openly racist shitheads again.

I was talking to a family member last night about this last night.  If Selma happened today on live TV, a significant portion of Americans would be very, very OK with the dogs and fire hoses being turned loose on the marchers. 

 

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linux

linux 1543

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Hardly a single issue voter but if that makes you feel better then have at it 

Always have been, but the Iranian regime is not going to be toppled, they teach the lessons of hard core repressive right wing regime your boy will try to emulate. The most obvious will be protest suppression, Milei made it so it was ilegal of sorts (aka they had to pay money to protest) in the end you voted for athoritarianism and you will get it, Iran perfected it and Trump will emulate it. You will cheer of course until the cold water hits.

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linux

linux 1543

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I was talking to a family member last night about this last night.  If Selma happened today on live TV, a significant portion of Americans would be very, very OK with the dogs and fire hoses being turned loose on the marchers. 

 

Yeah, the biggest problem has been the elimination of empathy as a human evolutionary trait, they otherize so much they actually get joy now when people suffer. It was by design.

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C-Man

C-Man 26873

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Macklemore said:

Your information is off when it comes to Milei’s approval ratings 

https://www.voanews.com/a/milei-s-popularity-rebounds-as-argentina-s-markets-hit-record-highs/7842577.html
 

your mind will be blown when you do some research on Bukele’s popularity in El Salvador. Right wing “authoritarians” have never been more popular.

So, this?

image.png.522cecf654fb3dd8f217068763a848e5.png

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18215

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I was talking to a family member last night about this last night.  If Selma happened today on live TV, a significant portion of Americans would be very, very OK with the dogs and fire hoses being turned loose on the marchers. 

 

Here's the good news. More people would be not OK with it.

Donald Trump didn't win because most people agree with him. That's just his base. Donald Trump won because they wanted something different from the Biden administration. Any Republican nominee would have won on Tuesday.

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