Conference Championship Scenarios and Playoff Odds

[JBJ 3817]

In the ACC, SMU clinches a spot with another win.  Miami must win out.  Clemson is finished with conference play and a single loss.  They need Miami to lose or SMU to lose twice.

 

In the B1G, Oregon has finished their conference play undefeated, so they have already clenched.  Ohio State and Indiana both control their own fate.  They meet next Saturday at Noon.  Penn State needs absolute chaos: Ohio State to beat Indiana and then both team to lose the final week to Michigan and Purdue respectively.

 

The Big XII is shaping up to be Colorado against BYU.  Arizona State gets in with an unlikely 4-way tie.  Iowa State needs chaos.

 

In the SEC, Alabama, Texas, and Texas A&M control their own fates.  Alabama is actually the safest bet right now due to an easier slate of games (Oklahoma and Auburn).  Georgia gets in with an Alabama loss or chaos from on of the Texas teams.  Ole Miss is technically not eliminated, but it requires the unlikeliest of chaos scenarios.

 

There are 20 remaining playoff contenders, including 6 SEC teams.  The field still has a decent enough chance as well - South Carolina is the next best shot if they can knock off Clemson and it's likely Tulane gets the nod if the leading G5 teams both lose.

[JBJ 3817]

The "Rank" in these charts is my simulated CFP committee ranks, which I actually jumped the gun on before all the data was in.   Texas is actually #2

Edited November 17 by JBJ