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Posted

Assad and family are apparently at the Four Seasons hotel in Moscow (Russia not denying it).

Russian forces have bailed on three of their largest bases and are trying to make their way to the coastal bases.

Aleppo and Hama have fallen to the rebel forces.  Rumors of a coup against Assad.  Dogs and cats living together.

They might have an air force

 

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Posted
  On 11/30/2024 at 9:28 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Assad and family are apparently at the Four Seasons hotel in Moscow (Russia not denying it).

Russian forces have bailed on three of their largest bases and are trying to make their way to the coastal bases.

Aleppo and Hama have fallen to the rebel forces.  Rumors of a coup against Assad.  Dogs and cats living together.

They might have an air force

 

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Those are for sure L-39s. 

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Posted

Do those L-39s have hard points for munitions?  Or will we see them zip tie and rubber band missiles to them and then the pilots dropping hand grenades from the cockpits WWI style?

Posted
  On 11/30/2024 at 11:55 PM, Macanudo said:

Do those L-39s have hard points for munitions?  Or will we see them zip tie and rubber band missiles to them and then the pilots dropping hand grenades from the cockpits WWI style?

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Still likely effective against Russians 

Posted

Some context 

 

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Posted

Good article. I hope this is a decisive victory. Still not sure what role Assad was really playing anyway. Syria was/is a Russia/Iran protectorate.

But it is real that the Turks are key players now in three conflict areas more than last week. Syria, Caucus and Ukraine.

Fun times.

 

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Posted
  On 11/30/2024 at 11:55 PM, Macanudo said:

Do those L-39s have hard points for munitions?  Or will we see them zip tie and rubber band missiles to them and then the pilots dropping hand grenades from the cockpits WWI style?

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They have 2 stations for munitions, but payload is extremely limited, something like 700lbs.

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Posted

When (when not if) do the rebels start turning on each other? Alliances don’t matter and the region will have another humanitarian crisis on its hands.

Humans are the worst.

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Posted
  On 12/1/2024 at 3:02 PM, Superhero said:

When (when not if) do the rebels start turning on each other? Alliances don’t matter and the region will have another humanitarian crisis on its hands.

Humans are the worst.

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When the UN tells them they need to have a western style democracy. Beruit 1980's, etc.

 

 

Posted
  On 12/1/2024 at 2:27 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Good article. I hope this is a decisive victory. Still not sure what role Assad was really playing anyway. Syria was/is a Russia/Iran protectorate.

But it is real that the Turks are key players now in three conflict areas more than last week. Syria, Caucus and Ukraine.

Fun times.

 

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I had to look it up - 90M people live in Turkey. That's bigger than Germany and 3/4ths the size of Russia.

Posted
  On 12/1/2024 at 5:19 PM, Bevo said:

 

I had to look it up - 90M people live in Turkey. That's bigger than Germany and 3/4ths the size of Russia.

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And they have fought once or twice. Turks want to push into the NE where they slowly have been building influence.

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Posted
  On 12/1/2024 at 3:02 PM, Superhero said:

When (when not if) do the rebels start turning on each other? Alliances don’t matter and the region will have another humanitarian crisis on its hands.

Humans are the worst.

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Not until they take Damascus, however there are a lot of groups that are spread out in Syria, so the country could just fracture similar to Yugoslavia,

Here is a decent map although if you drew a line from Damascus to Deir At Zor, everything east of it is pretty sparsely settled, and most likely there are no Syrian troops there -  most of the population is closer to the Western/Northern parts.

114629440b070b92.webp
 

 

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Posted

Supposedly a Syrian general has been captured, which means his troops were captured or wiped out (or they really hate him).

Supposedly Syrian forces are dropping dumb bombs on a couple of cities, killing civilians (would not be surprising).

Lots of conspiracy theories that Israel and Turkiye are running the show, with claims that Al a Qaeda and ISIS are doing their bidding.  Those are fun conspiracy theories.

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Posted
  On 12/1/2024 at 7:00 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Not until they take Damascus, however there are a lot of groups that are spread out in Syria, so the country could just fracture similar to Yugoslavia,

Here is a decent map although if you drew a line from Damascus to Deir At Zor, everything east of it is pretty sparsely settled, and most likely there are no Syrian troops there -  most of the population is closer to the Western/Northern parts.

114629440b070b92.webp
 

 

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That map is a perfect illustration of a dumpster fire.

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Posted
  On 12/1/2024 at 7:59 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Map from today. MAKS from Bluesky is the source. Was pretty reliable on Ukraine.

image.thumb.jpeg.06a756f1d9f45eef203b8fde6768f14b.jpeg

Group Alingment. same source.

 

A better version.

image.jpeg.5ba419041062d94b272236e7af0cf906.jpeg

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So we for Turkey, ISIS, Iran? Who do we want to win out? Don't say Democracy 'cuz that's the least likely, right? Or is there some possibility of a pro-Israel or pro-US group winning out? JK.

Posted

Bosnia example.

Syria (Iran) get the mountains against the sea.

Pro-Turk Sunni get the North.

Kurds with US/Iraq backing get the East.

Jordan controls the southern border with a UN force.

"National" parliament elected at the regional level. UN force separating the factions.

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Posted
  On 12/1/2024 at 3:02 PM, Superhero said:

When (when not if) do the rebels start turning on each other? Alliances don’t matter and the region will have another humanitarian crisis on its hands.

Expand  
  On 12/2/2024 at 1:06 AM, Bevo said:

So we for Turkey, ISIS, Iran? Who do we want to win out? Don't say Democracy 'cuz that's the least likely, right? Or is there some possibility of a pro-Israel or pro-US group winning out? JK.

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Here’s some things to consider:

  • This could be Russia’s last “safe” warm-water port and Assad going down means they lose it.  I’d think they’d fight like hell for it,
  • If Assad goes down, Iran loses its last major ally in the ME (they can’t rely on the Houthis).  As it stands, Iran can’t do a lot because its access through Lebanon is probably gone at this point, and it has to be wary of Israel when making large deliveries.  Israel isn’t going to let Iran arm any groups around them, and they can’t go through the Kurds and Iraq, and definitely can’t go through Türkiye. .
  • Israel and Türkiye will happily let Assad fall and then watch the various groups fight each other. At some point they have to step in though and pick a winner (who will be stable).
  • The Kurds are nominally under US protection east of the Euphrates.  If things fall apart, they could wind up breaking off in some form.  Türkiye wouldn’t be happy, but they would help keep Syria divided and provide a buffer to Iran (not that Iran could move through Northern Iraq, but if they,,, somehow did, the Kurds would be waiting).  There is the problem of Kurds in Türkiye and Iraq, but hell maybe the Turks would be happy with them leaving Türkiye in some manner and moving to what was Syria.
  • Speaking of Iraq, if things fall apart, the Western border areas of Iraq get dicey.

Crazy how this thing could spiral out of control so quickly and suck a bit of Iraq and possibly Lebanon into it. Also crazy at how much Iran and Russia really need Syria.

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Posted (edited)

Really helpful thread explaining this from many angles 

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Edited by KYHorn
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