Why so Syriaous (Syria Megathread)

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

6 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The problem for the Kurds is Erdoghan and Turkey.

Yes, and lets not forget some of these groups in Syria were fine with ISIS who did not attack them.

Also, these are not the sort to sit back, be happy with their victory and chill out and just go back to goat herding. This, revolution/jihad is or became their profession. Who ya think they are going to look at next?

Well see Mahmoud, this damn kurdish guy cut in front of me when I was buying tabuli.

Really? Those damn kurds. Well call up the boys and see if you can take back some land. See if that damn syrian air force trainer we captured is ok. Can anyone fly it?

And the Americans? They will defend no? says Mahmoud.

Nah, they are preoccupied with some CEO getting shot, college playoffs and trump cannot find syria on a map. Plus the final of masked singer is close. So move fast.

 

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The problem for the Kurds is Erdoghan and Turkey.

And the United States.

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Who ya think they are going to look at next?

I know you were thinking of the Kurds/NE Syria, but my first thought is places without the wherewithal to defend against them, where they have some kind of presence or could stir up the locals to back them:

• Parts of Iraq
• Maybe Lebanon

They know after January, we won't lift a finger to help Iraq, and they know we will help Israel. With that said, Israel is not going to let them march into Lebanon so Lebanon is probably off the table, and they probably won't screw with Jordan (for the same reason), and Jordan has the Saudis just on the other side, who would not want these rebels spreading beyond Syria.

Some of these groups think they can take the Middle East back to the map boundaries of the pre-British/French days (but not the Ottoman Empire). And they know there are a bunch of Shiites inside of Iraq who could cause problems for them if they become a ruling party of Syria.

Either way, I don't imagine the Shiites inside of Syria will still be Shiites this time next year - either they convert, or they die.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

And the United States.

I know you were thinking of the Kurds/NE Syria, but my first thought is places without the wherewithal to defend against them, where they have some kind of presence or could stir up the locals to back them:

• Parts of Iraq
• Maybe Lebanon

They know after January, we won't lift a finger to help Iraq, and they know we will help Israel. With that said, Israel is not going to let them march into Lebanon so Lebanon is probably off the table, and they probably won't screw with Jordan (for the same reason), and Jordan has the Saudis just on the other side, who would not want these rebels spreading beyond Syria.

Some of these groups think they can take the Middle East back to the map boundaries of the pre-British/French days (but not the Ottoman Empire). And they know there are a bunch of Shiites inside of Iraq who could cause problems for them if they become a ruling party of Syria.

Either way, I don't imagine the Shiites inside of Syria will still be Shiites this time next year - either they convert, or they die.

Fight one Kurd you fight them all. They are a people in 3 countries, but 1 people.

Syrian rebels once they can form a cohesive (hahahahahahaha) organization are going to want to remove control of any outsiders. Their first hurdle will be a parliamentary government along tribal/ethnic lines all the way to a hardline theocracy, etc. I think the hardliner Jihadi groups win at first and that pulls in external (NATO, IDF, etc). They are meaner. And to them all borders except Islam's suck. That includes Turkey. And they will remember the Ottomans were not that kind to the Arab tribes. Turkey is pushing its influence, does not mean the rest of the region is cool with that. So then the House of Saud comes into play, the Gulf Sheiks.

A lot of Arabs saw Syria as a model. Fools for sure, but there was hope that it could fight Israel, educate its population, etc. And the biggest kick in the ass to the Alawites? They forgot to fix their irrigation system.

Well no matter, I made Falafel so dinner will be acceptable to all of them tomorrow night.

[KYHorn 17,567]

Assad's regime loses major city of Daraa in southwestern Syria

According to local media reports, government forces surrendered the city without a fight as part of an agreement ensuring the safe withdrawal of Assad's army toward Damascus. Daraa is the administrative center of the province of the same name.

Yesterday, Syrian rebels also entered the city of As-Suwayda, the administrative center of the neighboring province.

[Parliament 14,559]

Great that they're gtfo of Syria, but all that equipment is going to Ukraine.  Not ideal.

[tx ind 7,056]

Surly is slipping, any volunteers to comfort Assad’s wife once she’s a widow?

[Schulz2.0 29,243]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Great that they're gtfo of Syria, but all that equipment is going to Ukraine.  Not ideal.

They're trying to protect their naval base in Tartus. I wouldn't assume it's all leaving Syria yet.

Edited December 7 by Schulz2.0

[Chad Fuck 18,091]

I know you were thinking of the Kurds/NE Syria, but my first thought is places without the wherewithal to defend against them, where they have some kind of presence or could stir up the locals to back them:

• Parts of Iraq
• Maybe Lebanon

They know after January, we won't lift a finger to help Iraq, and they know we will help Israel. With that said, Israel is not going to let them march into Lebanon so Lebanon is probably off the table, and they probably won't screw with Jordan (for the same reason), and Jordan has the Saudis just on the other side, who would not want these rebels spreading beyond Syria.
Some of these groups think they can take the Middle East back to the map boundaries of the pre-British/French days (but not the Ottoman Empire). And they know there are a bunch of Shiites inside of Iraq who could cause problems for them if they become a ruling party of Syria.
Either way, I don't imagine the Shiites inside of Syria will still be Shiites this time next year - either they convert, or they die.

The ME sort itself out into ethnic/tribal groups post Sykes Picot was always going to happen. It was inevitable since then. It’s been slowly happening ever since.

And so it goes, so it goes.
Poo-tee-weet!

[Chad Fuck 18,091]

Fight one Kurd you fight them all. They are a people in 3 countries, but 1 people.
Syrian rebels once they can form a cohesive (hahahahahahaha) organization are going to want to remove control of any outsiders. Their first hurdle will be a parliamentary government along tribal/ethnic lines all the way to a hardline theocracy, etc. I think the hardliner Jihadi groups win at first and that pulls in external (NATO, IDF, etc). They are meaner. And to them all borders except Islam's suck. That includes Turkey. And they will remember the Ottomans were not that kind to the Arab tribes. Turkey is pushing its influence, does not mean the rest of the region is cool with that. So then the House of Saud comes into play, the Gulf Sheiks.
A lot of Arabs saw Syria as a model. Fools for sure, but there was hope that it could fight Israel, educate its population, etc. And the biggest kick in the ass to the Alawites? They forgot to fix their irrigation system.
Well no matter, I made Falafel so dinner will be acceptable to all of them tomorrow night.

And further to this, Turkey is only an ally in so far as they are helping today. If someone walks in tomorrow, after the rebels have gained control, and offers them a better deal, it’ll be “Erdo who?”

[Chad Fuck 18,091]

Great that they're gtfo of Syria, but all that equipment is going to Ukraine.  Not ideal.

Only if the rebels let them take it. If I’m the rebels I say, “You can have your people, but leave your equipment where it is. Otherwise you get neither.” Russia isn’t really in a position to bargain right now.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

10 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Syrian rebels once they can form a cohesive (hahahahahahaha) organization are going to want to remove control of any outsiders. Their first hurdle will be a parliamentary government along tribal/ethnic lines all the way to a hardline theocracy, etc. I think the hardliner Jihadi groups win at first and that pulls in external (NATO, IDF, etc). They are meaner. And to them all borders except Islam's suck. That includes Turkey. And they will remember the Ottomans were not that kind to the Arab tribes. Turkey is pushing its influence, does not mean the rest of the region is cool with that. So then the House of Saud comes into play, the Gulf Sheiks.

Agreed - I think the first hurdle will be eliminating the threat any Iranian-backed groups pose, just to eliminate the threat of Iraqi Shiites crossing the border, and the Iranians pouring Iranian troops in, although I think it's kind of too late to bring those troops in, but Iran has to be desperate on some level. They are already a bit isolated on the international stage, and if Syria falls, their isolation within the region grows (which is also why they are so active in Yemen).

In the process they are breaking the power of the Ba'ath Party (which transcends Syria and crosses over with Iraq).

Break those ties to Iran and break the ties to Russia.

And Iraq only has about 175,000 ground troops, which probably means something like 45,000 actual infantry.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Great that they're gtfo of Syria, but all that equipment is going to Ukraine.  Not ideal.

29 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

They're trying to protect their naval base in Tartus. I wouldn't assume it's all leaving Syria yet.

And if things happen like we've seen in the past, while this feels extremely fast, we haven't seen anything yet - when things like this collapse, they really collapse.

Russians may lose a lot of equipment and more than a few troops.

Putin has to be really fucking pissed and embarrassed. I'm surprised they aren't running more bombing runs all over the place.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And if things happen like we've seen in the past, while this feels extremely fast, we haven't seen anything yet - when things like this collapse, they really collapse.

Russians may lose a lot of equipment and more than a few troops.

Putin has to be really fucking pissed and embarrassed. I'm surprised they aren't running more bombing runs all over the place.

Does he? Maybe the knowledge that the Assads are going to be shacking up in one of his Dachas for a bit. I don't think he gives a fuck except for that base.

I don't see the base "going away" right away. A deal will be cut. Enough to keep a lot of those weapons there. But even then, how many are they and will they change the battle field in Ukraine? Doubt it. This is not like all US Troops in Iraq coming back to the US. Maybe 10K ground troops and that includes support elements. 

They will keep enough to hold the Port. And that eventually will go away but negotiated. Interesting they never developed a real military port with an Air base.

[Auto Driller 2,563]

Assad family will probably fly out of Damascus in the next 24-48 hours with the plane loaded up with as much gold and antiquities as it can hold. Destination Moscow, of course. One thing that seems consistent in ME conflicts is that the fighting groups rarely have real “loyalty”; whenever the battlefield circumstances change, everyone wants to cut a deal with the winners. The Syrian army will abandon Assad as soon as it’s clear that he’s going to lose (AKA right now). The retribution will be brutal. Civil wars rarely have a pretty end.

[Schulz2.0 29,243]

 

 

 

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

BBC running a good tracker. USG says suburbs falling. UK warns Syria about use of Chemical Weapons.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t

This caught my eye.

Israeli military says it is assisting UN forces under attack in Syria published at 10:08

10:08

The Israeli military says it is assisting UN forces in Syria that have come under attack from "armed individuals".

Posting on social media, the Israeli Defense Forces says: "A short while ago, an attack was carried out by armed individuals at a UN post in the Hader area in Syria.

"The IDF is currently assisting the UN forces in repelling the attack.

"The IDF is deployed with reinforced forces in the Golan Heights area and will continue to operate in order to protect the State of Israel and its citizens."

The Golan Heights is a rocky plateau in south-western Syria, about 60km (40 miles) south-west of Damascus. Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria in the closing stages of the 1967 Six-Day War.

Most of the Syrian Arab inhabitants fled the area during the conflict. An armistice line was established and the region came under Israeli military control.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

 

Apparently rebels are in the suburbs.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

Good thread from yesterday that is now outdated  explains why they are so effective

”Militarily, #HTS has invested enormously since 2020 in enhancing combat capabilities, improving professionalism, tightening its structure & command/control etc. From an 'officer' class, to special forces, night-time units & an entire drone force - it's changed the game.”

 

[956 Worldwide 35,516]

Europe needs to prep for a migrant wave like in 2014-15. The populist anger from that one is still resonating across the continent. Erdogan is likely about to get paid.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

45 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Europe needs to prep for a migrant wave like in 2014-15. The populist anger from that one is still resonating across the continent. Erdogan is likely about to get paid.

Some groups already are. MOAS is talking about moving their vessel towards the Aegean.

So when do the street fights/retribution of Syrian (Sunni) vs. Syrian (Shia) start? I give it 6 months from the migration commencing.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

Tying into what you said earlier, or maybe 965, If they played their cards right and acted nicely towards the people, after decades of Assads, the people might switch their allegiance.  The rebels don’t want a brain drain and a gutted economy.  The people don’t want Assad’s secret police around. 
 

And I bet those secret police are fleeing like crazy for the coast because they will be pointed out by the civilians.  

Edited December 8 by atomheartbevo

[BachelorTrek 3,271]

8 hours ago, Auto Driller said:

Assad family will probably fly out of Damascus in the next 24-48 hours with the plane loaded up with as much gold and antiquities as it can hold. Destination Moscow, of course. One thing that seems consistent in ME conflicts is that the fighting groups rarely have real “loyalty”; whenever the battlefield circumstances change, everyone wants to cut a deal with the winners. The Syrian army will abandon Assad as soon as it’s clear that he’s going to lose (AKA right now). The retribution will be brutal. Civil wars rarely have a pretty end.

Much quicker than that.

Al-jazeera and Reuters report than per 2 senior Syria officers that Assad has already left Damascus for destinations unknown.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Tying into what you said earlier, or maybe 965, If they played their cards right and acted nicely towards the people, after decades of Assads, the people might switch their allegiance.  The rebels don’t want a brain drain and a gutted economy.  

Yes, they do. In Syria today those are alawites or already part of the rebels. They want THEIR people in power. So the rest can leave.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

8 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

Much quicker than that.

Al-jazeera and Reuters report than per 2 senior Syria officers that Assad has already left Damascus for destinations unknown.

AJ does have good coverage. Saw this tidbit. Damn interesting.

Syrian soldiers continue to pour into Iraq

 

Soldiers from al-Assad’s army are continuing to flee into Iraq through the al-Qaim border crossing, according to footage shared online.

One video, posted by the Anbar Media Centre, shows soldiers on tanks and military vehicles on the roads of al-Qaim. The outlet said “thousands” of troops had entered Iraq after “fleeing the battles taking place in their country”.

 

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

Rebels declare they are in Damascus, Damascus residents report gunfire.

Syrian government forces withdraw from Homs in potential blow to Assad | AP News

Quote

Syrian insurgents said early Sunday they had entered Damascus as residents of the capital reported sounds of gunfire. There was no immediate official statement from the Syrian government.

The insurgents also announced they had entered the notorious Saydnaya military prison north of the capital and “liberated our prisoners” there.

Unlike the Russian prisoners-turned-soldiers, I'd imagine a bunch of those prisoners have a serious axe to grind.

Quote

For the first time in the country’s long-running civil war, the government now has control of only three of 14 provincial capitals: Damascus, Latakia and Tartus.

Not gonna be that civil going forward.

Quote

The advances in the past week were among the largest in recent years by opposition factions, led by a group that has its origins in al-Qaida and is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the United Nations. In their push to overthrow Assad’s government, the insurgents, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, or HTS, have met little resistance from the Syrian army.

I'm kind of surprised that Assad's forces have put up so little resistance, given the risk they and their families run.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

OK, so NOW Russia wants a UN Resolution to pass? As noted above, the Gulf States are going to not want the rebels in full control. Neither will the Turks for that matter.

What is UN Security Council resolution 2254?

 

As we reported earlier, the foreign ministers of five Arab countries, as well as Iran, Turkiye and Russia, issued a joint statement calling for the implementation of UN Security Council resolution 2254 to end the fighting in Syria.

• The resolution, adopted in December 2015, sets out a roadmap for a ceasefire across Syria which is linked to a peace process leading to a Syrian-led and- owned political process facilitated by the UN.
• The resolution also calls for free and fair elections that are UN-supervised.
• Resolution 2254 demands compliance with international law, protecting civilians, uninhibited humanitarian access, safe and voluntary refugee returns and releasing people who have been arbitrarily detained.
•  

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

• Resolution 2254 demands compliance with international law, protecting civilians, uninhibited humanitarian access, safe and voluntary refugee returns and releasing people who have been arbitrarily detained.

Now do Russia/Ukraine.

Edited December 8 by atomheartbevo

[LongestHorn 772]

 

Climbed to 23k feet, lost speed and just disappeared from radar a minute ago.  Assad is believed to have been onboard.

 

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

15 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

Much quicker than that.

Al-jazeera and Reuters report than per 2 senior Syria officers that Assad has already left Damascus for destinations unknown.

Yeah, I trust both AJ and Reuters when it comes to this stuff - they tend to verify what they can and they have solid sources there.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has left Damascus to an unknown destination, say two senior army officers | Reuters

Social media (not twitter) is claiming Damascus has fallen in all but name.  Don't know about that, because rolling through an area is different than occupying/controlling it.

[LongestHorn 772]

Looks like the plane was circling back to the capital when it vanished from radar.

 

[956 Worldwide 35,516]

3 minutes ago, LongestHorn said:

 

Climbed to 23k feet, lost speed and just disappeared from radar a minute ago.  Assad is believed to have been onboard.

 

Likely landed at the military airport near Palmyra, where there are still either ordinary or PMC Russians. 

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

1 minute ago, LongestHorn said:

Climbed to 23k feet, lost speed and just disappeared from radar a minute ago.  Assad is believed to have been onboard.

Radar or was it a transponder being turned off?

I would have provided a couch to sleep on for his wife and daughter.

 

Didn't know one of his sons was James Franco but I can see why he would keep that on the down-low.  Would not have provided a couch for him.

[LongestHorn 772]

3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Likely landed at the military airport near Palmyra, where there are still either ordinary or PMC Russians. 

Perhaps.  Perhaps not.

 

[Laxtonto 13,013]

 

 

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

Old bomb in the baggage trick?

[Laxtonto 13,013]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

Aljazeera is saying the rebels have complete control of the TV and radio stations.

Putin obviously has to be pissed - he sunk a lot of resources into maintaining the port and airfields there (and it seems like Russia and Assad's people still control them).

I wonder if Putin is pondering the fact that Assad's regime is falling pretty fucking fast.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Old bomb in the baggage trick?

Or dumbass loaded up the aircraft with a lot of valuables/heavy stuff (or people) and the aircrew didn't do their due diligence.

Still wonder if this is a decoy - I can't see his aircraft having the transponder on.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

Well shit. so they will have a few military bases as outposts.

Government forces withdraw from Defence Ministry headquarters: Sources

 

Syrian rebel sources tell Al Jazeera Arabic that government forces have withdrawn from the Defence Ministry headquarters in Damascus.

 

[LongestHorn 772]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Aljazeera is saying the rebels have complete control of the TV and radio stations.

Putin obviously has to be pissed - he sunk a lot of resources into maintaining the port and airfields there (and it seems like Russia and Assad's people still control them).

I wonder if Putin is pondering the fact that Assad's regime is falling pretty fucking fast.

I'm not ruling out they shot him down.

 

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

Social media claiming the Syrian general staff has ordered the Syrian military to surrender and spare Damascus, etc.

 

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Social media claiming the Syrian general staff has ordered the Syrian military to surrender and spare Damascus, etc.

 

Tells me they have a way out. Also means the troops, hardline units especially, are pretty much toast.

[LongestHorn 772]

Good to see you Inka.  It's been a hot minute.  My LtCol brother in the 5th Group has since retired.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

2 minutes ago, LongestHorn said:

Good to see you Inka.  It's been a hot minute.  My LtCol brother in the 5th Group has since retired.

Cool, hehehe, that is where my dad got out. Found the old video of his retirement ceremony a few weeks ago.

Back to Syria. Shit is going to get real bad for the civilians in Damascus. Until now they were isolated from the war and impact. Give it a few months and I hope it does not go the way of Lebanon in the 1980's.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Tells me they have a way out. Also means the troops, hardline units especially, are pretty much toast.

Media is reporting soldiers are ditching military clothes for civilian and they were told to GTFO of Damascus and meet elsewhere.

4 minutes ago, LongestHorn said:

I'm not ruling out they shot him down.

Seems almost too easy, and I still have a hard time believing he was hanging around in Damascus up until an hour or two ago. I get that he's arrogant and believes he's always the smartest eye-doctor in the room, but people like him are also pretty paranoid and it seems like when the road was cut he would have been wheels-up pretty fast.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

 

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

Everyday, it's a-gettin' closer

Goin' faster than a roller coaster

Missiles like yours will surely come my way

A-sad, A-sad Assad

Every day, it's a-gettin' faster

Everyone said, "Turn off your transponder"

Missiles like yours will surely come my way

A-sad, A-sad Assad

 

In response to this (this person has their BlueSky stuff turned off for external sites quoting them)

"I was gonna log out this weekend but DID ASSAD JUST GET BUDDY HOLLY-ED???

[bolverk 30,231]

Tulsi must be so pissed.

[LongestHorn 772]

Dude.  Are we doing Stevie Ray next?  C'mon.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

AJ reporting Assad left. Celebrations in Damascus. Rebels claiming he fled.