Why so Syriaous (Syria Megathread)

[bolverk 30,231]

6 minutes ago, LongestHorn said:

Dude.  Are we doing Stevie Ray next?  C'mon.

I'd really like to see one of our photoshoppers put a pair of these

on this asshole.

Edited December 8 by bolverk

[DixonHur 11,941]

So, is Assad in Russia or Iran?

[BachelorTrek 3,271]

10 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

So, is Assad in Russia or Iran?

Paris, France?

That's where toppled Middle East leaders go for a life of leisure.

[DixonHur 11,941]

1 minute ago, BachelorTrek said:

Paris, France?

That's where toppled Middle East leaders go for a life of leisure.

Paris is the Paris of the Middle East

[Evil Bill Obrien 3,493]

 

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

From AJ

Moments before opposition fighters took control of the airport, open source flight trackers recorded a single plane in Syria’s airspace.

An Illyushin76 aircraft with flight number Syrian air 9218 was the last flight to take off from Damascus.

First, it flew east, then it turned north.

A few minutes later, its signal disappeared as it circled over Homs.

30 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

Paris, France?

That's where toppled Middle East leaders go for a life of leisure.

They go to Switzerland if they can. Extradition, etc.

But in this case he heads to Russia.

[LongestHorn 772]

If he is alive, he's in Egypt or Jordan. 

"The Jordanian embassy in Washington has denied the Wall Street Journal’s report that Jordanian officials requested Bashar al-Assad to leave Syria and form an exiled government. The embassy called the report “baseless” and incorrect."

Edited December 8 by LongestHorn
Your Mom

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

Just now, LongestHorn said:

Egypt or Jordan.  

Nah, never.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

I am starting to think he stayed in country and went to the coast. Then there is this question. Forget the conscript troops, what about the core? From where they are stationed could they be the troops that went into Iraq? The 4th is the primary key group.

From AJ

Elias Hanna, a military analyst, says Syrian forces kept announcing “redeployment” from cities as they withdrew, but they failed to set up defences in the path of advancing rebels.

“No one expected the Syrian army to be this fragile,” Hanna said.

“It shows a lack of desire in this army to fight – from Aleppo down to the capital.”

Hanna also raised questions about the absence of the Syrian Arab Army’s Fourth Division – a well-armed force of tens of thousands of soldiers, led by al-Assad’s brother Maher.

“Today, the question is: Where did these forces go? Where did their equipment go?”

[LongestHorn 772]

10 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Nah, never.

I'm of the mind he's already dead.  But if he's alive, Jordan and Egypt would be his best bet to join is wife and kids in Russia or UAE.  

[DixonHur 11,941]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

I am starting to think he stayed in country and went to the coast. Then there is this question. Forget the conscript troops, what about the core? From where they are stationed could they be the troops that went into Iraq? The 4th is the primary key group.

From AJ

Elias Hanna, a military analyst, says Syrian forces kept announcing “redeployment” from cities as they withdrew, but they failed to set up defences in the path of advancing rebels.

“No one expected the Syrian army to be this fragile,” Hanna said.

“It shows a lack of desire in this army to fight – from Aleppo down to the capital.”

Hanna also raised questions about the absence of the Syrian Arab Army’s Fourth Division – a well-armed force of tens of thousands of soldiers, led by al-Assad’s brother Maher.

“Today, the question is: Where did these forces go? Where did their equipment go?”

They've always been weak.  If not for the US intervention against ISIS, et al, Syria would have fallen years ago.

[DixonHur 11,941]

1 minute ago, LongestHorn said:

I'm of the mind he's already dead.  But if he's alive, Jordan and Egypt would be his best bet to join is wife and kids in Russia or UAE.  

I'm betting he is in Russia.  He's been a loyal Putin ally. 

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

Just now, LongestHorn said:

I'm of the mind he's already dead.  But if he's alive, Jordan and Egypt would be his best bet to join is wife and kids in Russia or UAE.  

Jordan hates him. Egypt? Yeah, same.

UAE would not protect him or let him stay. They don't want potential assassination on their territory. Might mess up the perception it has.

Why not just go to Russia straight?

1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

They've always been weak.  If not for the US intervention against ISIS, et al, Syria would have fallen years ago.

Interesting is ISIS never fucked with Bashir like they did with Iraq. Though both had Shia rulers.

[Hornius Emeritus 12,780]

6 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I'm betting he is in Russia.  He's been a loyal Putin ally. 

But he has no value to Putin anymore. It's amazing that his regime has apparently fallen. Probably should break the news to Tulsi gently.


I've heard people say that the economic pressures, a volatile world, and the rise of social media are bad for democracies because democracies don't know how to respond. Guess what? Maybe these things are bad for autocratic regimes too.

I heard the rebels were saying "I am a Jedi ... like my father before me."

[LongestHorn 772]

You're right.  If he's alive, the Russians have him.  

Also interesting are the ISIS elements trained and backed by the US when they were the FSA now in leadership roles of the SFA. 

"On February 29, 2024, the Free Syrian Army announced the appointment of Salem Turki al-Antri as its new leader, replacing Muhammad Farid al-Qasim."

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

Port city of Latakia has people partying in the streets.

 

[DixonHur 11,941]

31 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

But he has no value to Putin anymore. It's amazing that his regime has apparently fallen. Probably should break the news to Tulsi gently.


I've heard people say that the economic pressures, a volatile world, and the rise of social media are bad for democracies because democracies don't know how to respond. Guess what? Maybe these things are bad for autocratic regimes too.

I heard the rebels were saying "I am a Jedi ... like my father before me."

Putin needs to show other loyalist that he has their backs.

[LongestHorn 772]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Give it a few months and I hope it does not go the way of Lebanon in the 1980's.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/reports-claim-israeli-tanks-crossing-into-syria-buffer-zone/

[DixonHur 11,941]

42 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Jordan hates him. Egypt? Yeah, same.

UAE would not protect him or let him stay. They don't want potential assassination on their territory. Might mess up the perception it has.

Why not just go to Russia straight?

Interesting is ISIS never fucked with Bashir like they did with Iraq. Though both had Shia rulers.

I'd argue they didn't get a chance because they were busy fighting the US.  Either way, by the US fighting the jihadists, Assad could focus on fighting the sectarians.

Moral of the story is that we should mind our own business.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

7 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I'd argue they didn't get a chance because they were busy fighting the US.  Either way, by the US fighting the jihadists, Assad could focus on fighting the sectarians.

Moral of the story is that we should mind our own business.

I agree we should, but that is not how the ME rolls.

ISIS arose BEFORE we were in this particular conflict. They attacked East into Iraq. Not West vs. Syria. Raqqa, their HQ, was in Syria. They took power there first.

And Assad went after the Jihadis, just not really ISIS. Even Russia did not go heavy after ISIS until they were getting their asses kicked and tucked away in enclaves.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

I'm leaning towards Russia or Iran (or a coastal area).  His wife and kids are supposedly still in Moscow (never left after last week), but his wife has family in the UAE.

I have a hard time believing he's ballsy enough to stick around until he's literally taking the last flight out of Damascus.  Them closing in on cutting off Damascus from the coast should have been the last trigger for him if he was really still in Damascus, and that would have been hours before the IL-76 we are talking about. 

As for the 4th Division, either they were the troops fleeing to exile in Iraq (with the permission of the Iraqis) or they are the ones fleeing to the coast.

[atomheartbevo 90,546]

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Edited December 8 by atomheartbevo

[DixonHur 11,941]

19 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I agree we should, but that is not how the ME rolls.

ISIS arose BEFORE we were in this particular conflict. They attacked East into Iraq. Not West vs. Syria. Raqqa, their HQ, was in Syria. They took power there first.

And Assad went after the Jihadis, just not really ISIS. Even Russia did not go heavy after ISIS until they were getting their asses kicked and tucked away in enclaves.

My point is why get involved at all?  Just like communism, I couldn't give a rats ass if islamism takes over Syria, Iraq or any other ME country.  That seems like a "them" problem.

Islamists only care about America in as much as we interfere with the ME.  Let them have it as far as I'm concerned.  They'd 100% still sell us oil.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

7 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

My point is why get involved at all?  Just like communism, I couldn't give a rats ass if islamism takes over Syria, Iraq or any other ME country.  That seems like a "them" problem.

Islamists only care about America in as much as we interfere with the ME.  Let them have it as far as I'm concerned.  They'd 100% still sell us oil.

Don't know if this is the thread for it, but would be happy to get a US International Policy discussion going. For me it is quite simple and I see your point. So do we turn a blind eye to groups like ISIS?

[DixonHur 11,941]

12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Don't know if this is the thread for it, but would be happy to get a US International Policy discussion going. For me it is quite simple and I see your point. So do we turn a blind eye to groups like ISIS?

You're right.  Not the right thread, but in a word, yes 

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

Syrian Army says fight continues. Looking at this map and it hit me. Shit, we might see a new Lebanon be created along the coast.

Also, IDF said ahh shit, AQ is gonna take next door. Time to build up Golan.

Israeli minister urges new line of defence in occupied Golan Heights

 

Israeli Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli says the opposition advances in Syria “are far from a cause for celebration” for his country.

“Most of Syria is now under the control of affiliate organisations of” al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS), he was quoted as saying by the Israel Hayom newspaper, apparently referring to the fighters led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) armed group that recently entered Damascus.

Meanwhile, he said the strengthening of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the expansion of their control in the northeast of the country was a positive development.

“Israel must operationally renew its control at Mount Hermon [in the occupied Golan Heights] and establish a new line of defence based on the ceasefire line of 1974 [with Syria],” the minister added.

The SDF is backed by the US and its allies.

The majority of Syria’s Golan Heights region was occupied by Israel in 1967 and annexed in by it 1981.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

This is not good is it?

Israeli tanks cross Syria border fence for first time in 50 years: Report

Shortly after Israel said it would bolster its military presence on Syrian soil in reaction to the rebel offensive, Israeli tanks have reportedly crossed the border fence with Syria for the first time since 1974.

The move is purportedly aimed at preventing Syrian armed forces or civilians, regardless of their allegiance, from coming close to the Israeli positions, according to the Maariv newspaper.

We reported earlier how Israeli Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli said Israel must “establish a new line of defence based on the ceasefire line of 1974” with Syria at Mount Hermon in the occupied Golan Heights.

Israel occupied the majority of Syria’s Golan Heights in 1967 and annexed it in 1981.

[MillerEP 30,838]

Like most things, it happened slowly and then all at once. Let's hope that Russia's regime doesn't take 14 years. I'm happy for Syrians. It'll be rocky, but for the next few days they can finally breathe free. Lets hope they see more of this:

 

[KYHorn 17,567]

 

 

[Hornius Emeritus 12,780]

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://x.com/Osint613/status/1865734878765167097

 

[956 Worldwide 35,516]

Assad is almost certainly in Russia.  The Russian MFA announced definitively that he has left the country.

 

[KYHorn 17,567]

HTS Leader: Hezbollah is next

Leader of HTS and presumptive interim leader of Syria, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani: "We are open to friendship with everyone in the region, including Israel. We have no enemies except the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran. What Israel did against Hezbollah in Lebanon helped us a lot. Now we will take care of the rest."

 

Edited December 8 by KYHorn

[Anastasis 23,699]

Everybody loves a good redemption story. 
 

 

Edited December 8 by Anastasis

[Dbeasy 15,526]

Surly, my go to resource for Christmas Day family political discussions:

[956 Worldwide 35,516]

Israel is mopping up the regime’s chemical weapons stockpiles.

 

[Auto Driller 2,563]

Iran, and to a lesser extent Russia, are looking pretty pathetic right now. The network of Iran-backed armed groups are being absolutely demolished - first by Israel and now by the Syrian rebels. The remaining fighters are probably going to look to cut a deal sooner rather than later. It will be interesting to see the ripple effects that this has on the region and globally. 

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Surly, my go to resource for Christmas Day family political discussions:

Sorry Sir. Some of us do track other things other than CFB, Sharts and Lifetime ready murders.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

Fuck it, regime is gone, I am grabbing this chandelier.

 

[Brisketexan 106,618]

Iran, and to a lesser extent Russia, are looking pretty pathetic right now. The network of Iran-backed armed groups are being absolutely demolished - first by Israel and now by the Syrian rebels. The remaining fighters are probably going to look to cut a deal sooner rather than later. It will be interesting to see the ripple effects that this has on the region and globally. 

Iran and Shiite groups are taking a beating these days. Are the Houthis their last outpost of “fucking with others?”

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

4 hours ago, MillerEP said:

Like most things, it happened slowly and then all at once. Let's hope that Russia's regime doesn't take 14 years. I'm happy for Syrians. It'll be rocky, but for the next few days they can finally breathe free. Lets hope they see more of this:

 

Well gonna need that prison space for new occupants.

[Auto Driller 2,563]

Do they attack the western coast now? I know the maps say that those cities are still under “Syrian government” control but I’m not sure that has any meaning at this point. Who is going to coordinate the defense? The wild card is Russia’s naval/air base in Latakia. I’m not an expert but I’m guessing you can’t pack up your stuff and leave in a few days, especially when the air space all around is you is unsafe. Could we actually see this fall as well?

[956 Worldwide 35,516]

11 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

Iran, and to a lesser extent Russia, are looking pretty pathetic right now. The network of Iran-backed armed groups are being absolutely demolished - first by Israel and now by the Syrian rebels. The remaining fighters are probably going to look to cut a deal sooner rather than later. It will be interesting to see the ripple effects that this has on the region and globally. 

That monkey’s paw really curled when they asked for tyrannical and bloody oppressors of Arabs and Muslims to fall on October 7. 

[956 Worldwide 35,516]

1 minute ago, Auto Driller said:

Do they attack the western coast now? I know the maps say that those cities are still under “Syrian government” control but I’m not sure that has any meaning at this point. Who is going to coordinate the defense? The wild card is Russia’s naval/air base in Latakia. I’m not an expert but I’m guessing you can’t pack up your stuff and leave in a few days, especially when the air space all around is you is unsafe. Could we actually see this fall as well?

The Russians will likely negotiate an exit, there is nothing left to defend and the rebel groups can only lose by not letting them go. 

[berlinerbaer 692]

I wonder if there is any amount the Russians can offer the rebels to allow them to stay. If the new leadership truly is open to friendship with Israel, then they should be with Russia as well, for a price. Russia really needs those bases.

Edited December 8 by berlinerbaer

[Auto Driller 2,563]

2 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

I wonder if there is any amount the Russians can offer the rebels to allow them to stay. If the new leadership truly is open to friendship with Israel, then they should be with Russia as well, for a price. Russia really needs those bases.

This makes sense but I think the challenge is that Russia has a pretty rough history with Islamists in their own country. If they cut a deal with the new Syrian government it’s only going to embolden the groups in the Caucasus. Either way, this is a problem that they definitely did not want to deal with.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

16 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

I wonder if there is any amount the Russians can offer the rebels to allow them to stay. If the new leadership truly is open to friendship with Israel, then they should be with Russia as well, for a price. Russia really needs those bases.

No they don't. Not anymore. Those are post  Cold War relics. Russia is not a global power. Shit, they can barely get 3 ships to Cuba.

In a hot war they are cut off completely.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

39 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Iran and Shiite groups are taking a beating these days. Are the Houthis their last outpost of “fucking with others?”

For now. There are other groups Iran can start to build but that takes time. However, isolated groups with Iranian ideology are out there and without a central group to be led by can be quite dangerous.

This is far from over. When you look at layers in the region we tend to stop at Sunni/Shia. Gotta go deeper into tribes and then into the subgroups. It is a fucked map that is created so we (our leaders, DOS and DOD) prefer to lump them into groups. We hate so and so, without realizing some of the same tribal elements hate the same group. Plenty of examples.

 

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

38 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The Russians will likely negotiate an exit, there is nothing left to defend and the rebel groups can only lose by not letting them go. 

And it is not a Navy port like we think. It is a civilian port with a secure area. Like where we dock in Dubai vs. Bahrain.

Western coast is different tribes. They are more like the Lebanese than the rest of Syria. Yo, maps might be changing. About fucking time.

[InkaUtexas 26,800]

Fucking Turks. The Lulz of this statement. Wonder how the Kurds in E Turkey feel about this.

Turkiye urges inclusivity, fair treatment of minorities in post-Assad Syria

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasises importance of national unity and sovereignty after fall of Bashar al-Assad government.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/8/turkiye-urges-inclusivity-fair-treatment-of-minorities-in-post-assad-syria

[Brisketexan 106,618]

For now. There are other groups Iran can start to build but that takes time. However, isolated groups with Iranian ideology are out there and without a central group to be led by can be quite dangerous.
This is far from over. When you look at layers in the region we tend to stop at Sunni/Shia. Gotta go deeper into tribes and then into the subgroups. It is a fucked map that is created so we (our leaders, DOS and DOD) prefer to lump them into groups. We hate so and so, without realizing some of the same tribal elements hate the same group. Plenty of examples.
 

Oh, Syria is a tribal mess. Kurds, Alawites, and everything in between. Religious sect is just a layer on top of those.