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Why so Syriaous (Syria Megathread)


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5 hours ago, KYHorn said:

HTS Leader: Hezbollah is next

Leader of HTS and presumptive interim leader of Syria, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani: "We are open to friendship with everyone in the region, including Israel. We have no enemies except the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran. What Israel did against Hezbollah in Lebanon helped us a lot. Now we will take care of the rest."

 

Impressed they didn't kill him.

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6 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

How long until Assad falls out of a window in Moscow?  2 weeks?

He is useful to Russia as a possible future rallying point for them trying to take back power, or as a bargaining chip to regain some access/leverage.   

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26 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

How long until Assad falls out of a window in Moscow?  2 weeks?

17 minutes ago, ABSR said:

He is useful to Russia as a possible future rallying point for them trying to take back power, or as a bargaining chip to regain some access/leverage.   

Plus other despots need to see that Putin has their back if things go south. If Putin kills him, not many countries would want anything to do with him.

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4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

For now. There are other groups Iran can start to build but that takes time. However, isolated groups with Iranian ideology are out there and without a central group to be led by can be quite dangerous.

This is far from over. When you look at layers in the region we tend to stop at Sunni/Shia. Gotta go deeper into tribes and then into the subgroups. It is a fucked map that is created so we (our leaders, DOS and DOD) prefer to lump them into groups. We hate so and so, without realizing some of the same tribal elements hate the same group. Plenty of examples.

 

I blame Mark Sykes and Francois Georges-Picot.   Plus pretty much everyone else as well.

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3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yeah. the Middle East had no conflict until they drew a map.

Duh, that's why I said everyone else.   It's been fucked since Cain and Abel.   Or Velociraptors.   Whichever came first.

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1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

Duh, that's why I said everyone else.   It's been fucked since Cain and Abel.   Or Velociraptors.   Whichever came first.

hehehe, I think it was that one pissed of triceratops.

But it is an argument about Sykes and Picot that gets told over and over.

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8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

hehehe, I think it was that one pissed of triceratops.

But it is an argument about Sykes and Picot that gets told over and over.

Yep.   Most people don't realize that the Ottoman Empire was really a Suzerainty.   In theory, it was a centralized goverment headed by the Sultan but in reality Beys, Governors and Emirs ruled individual areas and made sure taxes got collected.   

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Just now, Macanudo said:

Yep.   Most people don't realize that the Ottoman Empire was really a Suzerainty.   In theory, it was a centralized goverment head by the Sultan but in reality Beys, Governors and Emirs ruled individual areas and made sure taxes got collected.   

Yep, Autonomous Collectives for the win.

 

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52 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

Im worried we now have a radical group that's worse than the shit that just left.  Round and round

Tbh, it’s going to be really hard to be worse than what left.  Syria was a charnel house.  I’m not saying I’m optimistic, just that it’s hard to get lower,  Assad sarin gassed people and ran the country like the USSR during the Great Terror. 

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17 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Tbh, it’s going to be really hard to be worse than what left.  Syria was a charnel house.  I’m not saying I’m optimistic, just that it’s hard to get lower,  Assad sarin gassed people and ran the country like the USSR during the Great Terror. 

My understanding is that the rebels are a group of radical factions.  Sounds like the Talaban all over again

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1 hour ago, nineliveslost said:

Im worried we now have a radical group that's worse than the shit that just left.  Round and round

14 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Tbh, it’s going to be really hard to be worse than what left.  Syria was a charnel house.  I’m not saying I’m optimistic, just that it’s hard to get lower,  Assad sarin gassed people and ran the country like the USSR during the Great Terror. 

They will most likely leave the Russians and us and the Kurds alone for the time being while they consolidate their gains and run the capitol and try to gain international legitimacy (gonna be hard, some of those guys have huge bounties on their heads). They also can’t mess with the Kurdish areas because there are oil fields there and it’s a good way to bring the West down on their heads,  They also have to deal with the fact that they are an umbrella group and the Peoples Front of Syria will soon be at odds with the Syrian Peoples Front and so on down the line.

The one thing that will bring them into conflict with us is that they will eventually be eyeing the neighbors if they can somehow remain united. Iraq is the most tempting and easiest target obviously.  Regardless, a lot of these guys are Al Qaeda/ISIS types and national borders are just a man-made construct that aren’t in the Koran.

But it all comes down to whether the guys in charge just want to run a country for a while, or if they are True Believers who are going to eventually export their brand of Islam outside of Syria.

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10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They will most likely leave the Russians and us and the Kurds alone for the time being while they consolidate their gains and run the capitol and try to gain international legitimacy (gonna be hard, some of those guys have huge bounties on their heads). They also can’t mess with the Kurdish areas because there are oil fields there and it’s a good way to bring the West down on their heads,  They also have to deal with the fact that they are an umbrella group and the Peoples Front of Syria will soon be at odds with the Syrian Peoples Front and so on down the line.

The one thing that will bring them into conflict with us is that they will eventually be eyeing the neighbors if they can somehow remain united. Iraq is the most tempting and easiest target obviously.  Regardless, a lot of these guys are Al Qaeda/ISIS types and national borders are just a man-made construct that aren’t in the Koran.

But it all comes down to whether the guys in charge just want to run a country for a while, or if they are True Believers who are going to eventually export their brand of Islam outside of Syria.

You know what the anwer to all of this.   What kind of success and who the plan on playing against is TBD but they plan on putting it on the schedule.  

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8 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

You know what the anwer to all of this.   What kind of success and who the plan on playing against is TBD but they plan on putting it on the schedule.  

Depends on if they grow fat dining at the trough. Now that they are tied down to geography they are arguably easier to control in our eyes.

I think Western Iraq is the first outside play, and probably happens next year. If they get no pushback from the US and the West, then things get scary.

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2 hours ago, DixonHur said:

Define "scary", and for whom?

The guy who is the public face of HTS headed up the Nursah Front or whatever for a while before HTS, and they were allied with Al Qaeda for years (they split, but then he has been working with them since as the HTS head), so yeah, he was affiliated with Al Qaeda - not good, Bob, not good.  

On paper the Syrians should have defeated them (they should have outnumbered them well over 10:1), but there were a shitload of Syrian defections either to what became HTS or to their own militia groups or they just quit and went home, and Assad apparently couldn't deploy certain troops to certain areas because of loyalty issues.  Hell, Syria has several thousand armored vehicles and an Air Force, but still couldn't defend their cities when the time came.

Okay, now look at Iraq - on paper they have close to 180,000 active duty troops, which means *probably* around 30,000 actual combat troops/infantry, give or take a few thousand.  Iraq is a big country and those troops are spread out, and plenty are going to be on the Iranian border trying to stop weapons/personnel going through there to Syria and elsewhere and plenty are going to be on the Syrian border for the same reasons (but then a bunch of Syrian troops defected to Iraq in the last week or two).

They (HTS) are very good at exploiting divisions between various religious groups and/or bringing together disparate groups and recruiting local groups, and they are very good at mobile warfare.  HST spent a few years really training and transforming how they fight, and I doubt the Iraqis are on their level, or at the least aren't nearly as motivated and mobile.

These things happen slowly until they don't. If they move on Western Iraq unopposed outside of Iraq, and take it quickly, there are going to be Iraqis and others from outside of Iraq who are drawn to it, who are going to support them. Once they get setup in Iraq, they will pull in plenty of local Iraqi groups who have a beef with the Iraqi government, Iraqi Shiites, etc.

What happens if they take Baghdad?  All of the sudden, they arguably have their caliphate, that just so happens to be sitting on the border of Saudi Arabia/Kuwait, and stretches from Lebanon/Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf.

That's scary for the Middle East and for the West.  The only good news is if they want to rule/occupy the areas they've taken, they have to tie at least some of their troops down to fixed locations.

 

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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The guy who is the public face of HTS headed up the Nursah Front or whatever for a while before HTS, and they were allied with Al Qaeda for years (they split, but then he has been working with them since as the HTS head), so yeah, he was affiliated with Al Qaeda - not good, Bob, not good.  
On paper the Syrians should have defeated them (they should have outnumbered them well over 10:1), but there were a shitload of Syrian defections either to what became HTS or to their own militia groups or they just quit and went home, and Assad apparently couldn't deploy certain troops to certain areas because of loyalty issues.  Hell, Syria has several thousand armored vehicles and an Air Force, but still couldn't defend their cities when the time came.
Okay, now look at Iraq - on paper they have close to 180,000 active duty troops, which means *probably* around 30,000 actual combat troops/infantry, give or take a few thousand.  Iraq is a big country and those troops are spread out, and plenty are going to be on the Iranian border trying to stop weapons/personnel going through there to Syria and elsewhere and plenty are going to be on the Syrian border for the same reasons (but then a bunch of Syrian troops defected to Iraq in the last week or two).
They (HTS) are very good at exploiting divisions between various religious groups and/or bringing together disparate groups and recruiting local groups, and they are very good at mobile warfare.  HST spent a few years really training and transforming how they fight, and I doubt the Iraqis are on their level, or at the least aren't nearly as motivated and mobile.
These things happen slowly until they don't. If they move on Western Iraq unopposed outside of Iraq, and take it quickly, there are going to be Iraqis and others from outside of Iraq who are drawn to it, who are going to support them. Once they get setup in Iraq, they will pull in plenty of local Iraqi groups who have a beef with the Iraqi government, Iraqi Shiites, etc.
What happens if they take Baghdad?  All of the sudden, they arguably have their caliphate, that just so happens to be sitting on the border of Saudi Arabia/Kuwait, and stretches from Lebanon/Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf.
That's scary for the Middle East and for the West.  The only good news is if they want to rule/occupy the areas they've taken, they have to tie at least some of their troops down to fixed locations.
 
 

This is exactly what brought isis down. They were good at blitzkrieg jihading. Not so great at governing huge swathes of territory covering disparate religious and ethnic groups. The Taliban is a good model for these guys. They’ve won a lot quickly. Better to consolidate before striking out at their neighbors.
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50 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

What happens if they take Baghdad?  All of the sudden, they arguably have their caliphate, that just so happens to be sitting on the border of Saudi Arabia/Kuwait, and stretches from Lebanon/Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf.

That's scary for the Middle East and for the West.  The only good news is if they want to rule/occupy the areas they've taken, they have to tie at least some of their troops down to fixed locations.

This is where US policy loses me.  I'm honestly not sure why I should care if they form a caliphate.

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This is where US policy loses me.  I'm honestly not sure why I should care if they form a caliphate.

Because people who care only about money and power are easier to strike deals with than religious ideologues.

We understand both, and they’re both terrible on human rights, but the former is at least more predictable.
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15 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

This is where US policy loses me.  I'm honestly not sure why I should care if they form a caliphate.

it is not just "us", the US. The EU could not take the loss of oil or immigration crush that would follow.

 

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49 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:


This is exactly what brought isis down. They were good at blitzkrieg jihading. Not so great at governing huge swathes of territory covering disparate religious and ethnic groups. The Taliban is a good model for these guys. They’ve won a lot quickly. Better to consolidate before striking out at their neighbors.

Yeah, ISIS was never able to take a major country over like this - they could not form a coalition. The fact that HTS were able to bring a lot of groups together in Syria, some of which hated each other, is problematic - it puts them in the same league as the Taliban in terms of being able to govern.  Taliban governs out of fear - HTS seems to be doing it out of mutual goals/cooperation, which is arguably harder than what the Taliban did.

It's interesting that the HTS head had led a group that broke from being allied with Al Qaeda because he had a different "strategic" direction he wanted to go versus Al Qaeda, but Al Qaeda later partnered with him under HTS.

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1 minute ago, NoRagrets said:

Countries falling would be a badass upper division history class elective. 

Kind of did over 2 semesters. one was EU History professor, the other Latin america. These were Writing Seminars. My focus was on the Balkans and ME and then on Latin America's civil wars. Fun shit.

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35 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

oil GIF

 

35 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:


Because people who care only about money and power are easier to strike deals with than religious ideologues.

We understand both, and they’re both terrible on human rights, but the former is at least more predictable.

 

32 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

it is not just "us", the US. The EU could not take the loss of oil or immigration crush that would follow.

 

I don't buy that, because if the caliphate wants to actually govern, they will need money and let's face it, aside from camel milk, oil is really the only option to put money in the treasury.

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5 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

 

 

I don't buy that, because if the caliphate wants to actually govern, they will need money and let's face it, aside from camel milk, oil is really the only option to put money in the treasury.

Their vision of governing is not the same as ours. Other than weapons they see themselves as being able to be self-sufficient. And weapons are all over the place.

ISIS was able to produce and export a lot of oil. Most via Turkey (hmmmm) but then it ran into issues. One was getting paid. Even today the Taliban has real hard time with securing international currency.

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Lots of chatter on this but hard to confirm

The White Helmets have announced the deployment of 5 Emergency Teams specializing in Search-and-Rescue, Wall-Breaching, and Iron Door-Opening as well as Trained Dog Units and Medical Responders to Sednaya Military Prison near the Syrian Capital of Damascus. As those there are still struggling to reach the Lower Levels of the Red Building, where upwards of 10,000 Prisoners are still believed to be trapped in Underground Cells, some of which are claimed to be over 100ft from the Surface. Rescuers at the Site can see the Prisoners on Security Cameras, but cannot reach them; with many of them likely having no clue about the Revolution or the ongoing Rescue Attempts.

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Fucking A, that is some medieval shit. And those guards think they will be treated kindly? Shhhhhiiiiiitttt...

Those guards are long gone. That’s why they can’t get these folks out. No one is left who knows how to make the gears work. Literally.
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16 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Their vision of governing is not the same as ours. Other than weapons they see themselves as being able to be self-sufficient. And weapons are all over the place.

ISIS was able to produce and export a lot of oil. Most via Turkey (hmmmm) but then it ran into issues. One was getting paid. Even today the Taliban has real hard time with securing international currency.

Yes, but at some point, their vision will crash headlong into reality.

The Taliban is basically begging for tourism at the moment.  And they are having trouble getting foreign money because their most valuable export (rare earth minerals) will require lots of investment, meaning companies will need to see stability before going in.  The oil fields in Iraq, for example, would require less upfront infrastructure investment because they already exist, so there is an easier path to monetization.

If the US and Europe want the oil they will be able to get it, provided they play nice.  But the egos (crusaders gonna crusade) will likely prevail and around and around we go.

 

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38 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Yes, but at some point, their vision will crash headlong into reality.

The Taliban is basically begging for tourism at the moment.  And they are having trouble getting foreign money because their most valuable export (rare earth minerals) will require lots of investment, meaning companies will need to see stability before going in.  The oil fields in Iraq, for example, would require less upfront infrastructure investment because they already exist, so there is an easier path to monetization.

If the US and Europe want the oil they will be able to get it, provided they play nice.  But the egos (crusaders gonna crusade) will likely prevail and around and around we go.

 

Sure, it does. But when your governing philosophy is God Wills, well it is a bit easier to cut off from the world. Does not last forever, and it sucks for those there, but it happens.

Concerning REM. Yeah, there are deposits. China wants that bad. Luckily for us, the Talibs don't like them.

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24 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Sure, it does. But when your governing philosophy is God Wills, well it is a bit easier to cut off from the world. Does not last forever, and it sucks for those there, but it happens.

Concerning REM. Yeah, there are deposits. China wants that bad. Luckily for us, the Talibs don't like them.

I'm just of the, seemingly unpopular opinion, that we meddle too much in other country's business.  

I'm for spending less on military and more on social programs.  I'm a veteran, but don't think we should be the world's police force.

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8 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I'm just of the, seemingly unpopular opinion, that we meddle too much in other country's business.  

I'm for spending less on military and more on social programs.  I'm a veteran, but don't think we should be the world's police force.

Shit man, I agree. But not the thread. We don't have a good one for that discussion.

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3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

In what I know will shock everyone, we bombed ISIS positions in what was until very recently a Russian/Assad controlled area of the country. Almost like they’d been allowing ISIS to hang out there. 

 

Shit, I have been trying to say that for years. Russia allowed, and probably facilitated the creation of ISIS.

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