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Why so Syriaous (Syria Megathread)

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elfenix

elfenix 34658

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

it is not just "us", the US. The EU could not take the loss of oil or immigration crush that would follow.

 

Iirc Putin funded much of the 2014 migrant waves, did he not? He ain't funding shit now. 

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 29243

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Why did Russia let ISIS get a start?  Wasn’t ISIS an enemy of Assad?

Assad generally left ISIS alone and ISIS left Assad's forces alone.

Just now, Chad Fuck said:

Looks like SFA and Kurds are fighting around Manjib.  So looks like the SFA isn't done trying to extend their reach.  

The Turks consider the Syrian Kurds PKK members and terrorists.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26800

Posted
Posted
Just now, Parliament said:

Why did Russia let ISIS get a start?  Wasn’t ISIS an enemy of Assad?

See that is the kicker. If they were, why did ISIS spend most of its time attacking Sunni groups? So much so that the Sunni's in Iraq were a major part of the coalition against them.

Why did  Russia allow ISIS to survive? They never got the Aleppo treatment.

Why did ISIS never really turn its sites on Assad? But happy to go East vs. Iraq. Yet Assad is not only Shia, but tied to Iran (Who ISIS also left alone).

How did all those Chechens and Dagestani's get "out of Russian" jail, travel to Syria, and form the cadre?

 

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Chad Fuck

Chad Fuck 18091

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Assad generally left ISIS alone and ISIS left Assad's forces alone.

The Turks consider the Syrian Kurds PKK members and terrorists.

Yes, I understand the Kurds/Turk conflict so it makes sense the SFA would turn towards the SDF.  I just didn't think it would come so quickly.  I'm guessing that the Turks surmise that tfg will not give two shits what they do to the Kurds so may as well get started now. Of course, just a couple days ago A-10s were killing anti SDF forces.  I guess that'll only last a month or so more.  Get some while you can, brrrrrt-guys.

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26853

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Their vision of governing is not the same as ours. Other than weapons they see themselves as being able to be self-sufficient. And weapons are all over the place.

ISIS was able to produce and export a lot of oil. Most via Turkey (hmmmm) but then it ran into issues. One was getting paid. Even today the Taliban has real hard time with securing international currency.

Come get yer Dirhams! Come get yer Dinars!

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bolverk

bolverk 30231

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

See that is the kicker. If they were, why did ISIS spend most of its time attacking Sunni groups? So much so that the Sunni's in Iraq were a major part of the coalition against them.

Why did  Russia allow ISIS to survive? They never got the Aleppo treatment.

Why did ISIS never really turn its sites on Assad? But happy to go East vs. Iraq. Yet Assad is not only Shia, but tied to Iran (Who ISIS also left alone).

How did all those Chechens and Dagestani's get "out of Russian" jail, travel to Syria, and form the cadre?

 

tenor.gif

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8248

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, NoRagrets said:

Countries falling would be a badass upper division history class elective. 

The interesting thing to me is how it is understood contemporaneously and how history records it later.  What is the history according to the losing side vs the winning side and with this particular one how the previous coalitions fell apart and morphed into the one that eventually won.

 

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8248

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Yes, I understand the Kurds/Turk conflict so it makes sense the SFA would turn towards the SDF. 

 

5 hours ago, Bevo said:

 

What do you mean? They have almost the same acronym.

 

Sounds like a FCS playoff game:  Stephen F Austin vs some South Dakota satellite campus.

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 35516

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I will again say that I am far from “optimistic” but following these scenes from the prison….Assad was sarin gassing people and had a giant hydraulic press he used to squish people and would dissolve their remains in acid.  All the takes about how bad it might get next should go on pause for a bit. 
 

 

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 35516

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Parliament said:

Why did Russia let ISIS get a start?  Wasn’t ISIS an enemy of Assad?

Not so much that they let them get a start, as much as ISIS had a useful role to play once they were not an existential threat to Assad.  And contrary to their press image, ISIS leaders are fanatics but not berserkers— they were capable of cutting temporary strategic deals. 
 

- ISIS was extremely useful as a tool to attack and undermine U.S. forces and U.S. allies in Iraq and later U.S.- aligned groups in Syria. For Russia, undermining the west is always the first strategic imperative. 
 

- ISIS was a useful rhetorical tool for many years; Russia got a lot of mileage and influence by claiming that they were all that stood between the “U.S. created” ISIS savages and a regional caliphate; in fact they simply effectively kept the stove at a simmer but never a boil.

- ISIS and other jihadi groups are a useful pressure valve to get rid of extremist Muslims inside the Russian federation and make them someone else’s problem, and there is less blowback to killing them abroad than at home. 
 

- Russia and Assad could let them slip off the leash a bit and cause an uptick in migrant flows to Europe which has always been something Russia cannily exploits (Turkey is not innocent here either). 
 

- At one time Russia liked to hold them in reserve as a bargaining chip to get the West to the table. “Let’s go after ISIS together, and put aside all these quarrels over (Russia’s) Near Abroad.” 
 

It’s well documented that Russia and Assad allowed them to operate against common enemies from within the “regime controlled” zone.  It’s kind of cliche, but the U.S. vs. Russian view of jihadis sort of reflects the inheritance of Western vs. Eastern Rome (Byzantium). The one likes to bring overwhelming force, wipe them out, completely destroy them, see if you can replace them with something more amenable.  The second never wants to fully defeat an enemy because they can always be useful so long as they aren’t an existential threat. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26800

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Not so much that they let them get a start, as much as ISIS had a useful role to play once they were not an existential threat to Assad.  And contrary to their press image, ISIS leaders are fanatics but not berserkers— they were capable of cutting temporary strategic deals. 
 

- ISIS was extremely useful as a tool to attack and undermine U.S. forces and U.S. allies in Iraq and later U.S.- aligned groups in Syria. For Russia, undermining the west is always the first strategic imperative. 
 

- ISIS was a useful rhetorical tool for many years; Russia got a lot of mileage and influence by claiming that they were all that stood between the “U.S. created” ISIS savages and a regional caliphate; in fact they simply effectively kept the stove at a simmer but never a boil.

- ISIS and other jihadi groups are a useful pressure valve to get rid of extremist Muslims inside the Russian federation and make them someone else’s problem, and there is less blowback to killing them abroad than at home. 
 

- Russia and Assad could let them slip off the leash a bit and cause an uptick in migrant flows to Europe which has always been something Russia cannily exploits (Turkey is not innocent here either). 
 

- At one time Russia liked to hold them in reserve as a bargaining chip to get the West to the table. “Let’s go after ISIS together, and put aside all these quarrels over (Russia’s) Near Abroad.” 
 

It’s well documented that Russia and Assad allowed them to operate against common enemies from within the “regime controlled” zone.  It’s kind of cliche, but the U.S. vs. Russian view of jihadis sort of reflects the inheritance of Western vs. Eastern Rome (Byzantium). The one likes to bring overwhelming force, wipe them out, completely destroy them, see if you can replace them with something more amenable.  The second never wants to fully defeat an enemy because they can always be useful so long as they aren’t an existential threat. 

It is so quickly forgotten that Omar Al-Sistani, the first Minister of Defense of ISIS was a Chechen. He "escaped" from a Russian jail and ended up in Syria. He was well known by his bright red beard.

The Russians pushed the propaganda about standing up to ISIS that most bought it. Tells you how effective they can be.

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 35516

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

It is so quickly forgotten that Omar Al-Sistani, the first Minister of Defense of ISIS was a Chechen. He "escaped" from a Russian jail and ended up in Syria. He was well known by his bright red beard.

The Russians pushed the propaganda about standing up to ISIS that most bought it. Tells you how effective they can be.

A red beard is a powerful thing. When I first moved to Pak I was clean-shaven and after a couple months I decided to grow my beard out. It came in with a lot more red than I expected and there was an immediate change in respect and attitude, especially from the Pashtuns. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26800

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

A red beard is a powerful thing. When I first moved to Pak I was clean-shaven and after a couple months I decided to grow my beard out. It came in with a lot more red than I expected and there was an immediate change in respect and attitude, especially from the Pashtuns. 

Oh absolutely. I cannot grow one to save my life, so I said fuck fitting in, shaved and wore a red sox hat. No one killed me so guess that works. The Talibs are not Yankees fans I guess.

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Bevo

Bevo 13825

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

Fuck, give me a break. I'm like a third cousin dude. I didn't even like him and he didn't like me. That's why I got stuck in Latakia while he was living it up in Damascus.

 

Followed by.

image.gif.5999e904a90a237be1eeaccaf15b4a3c.gif

 

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90546

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Somebody asked me to put the speed in which this all happened within context.  The whole "it happened slowly until it didn't" thing. We had the 13 years of civil war, and then in 10 days they went from moving towards Aleppo to occupying Damascus. That is actually pretty wild.

So I told this person it was like when I was in my early 20s and I was going to be late with my rent, I found myself having to bang the 50-something landlord while wearing a wig of dark hair and letting her call me by her dead husband's name, all the while her dipshit 25 year-old son was playing on his Playstation in the next room. He had the sound cranked up probably because he was trying to drown out the sound of his mom banging a guy younger than him, and with her loudly calling me by his dead dad's name, it was a bit hard for me to concentrate and satisfy her/finish.

It felt like I had been banging her for years, and she straight up asked if I was planning on finishing, and then before I could say anything, she became the first woman to shove a finger up my ass.  All of the sudden I was finishing inside her within seconds and I felt like....

f456b524-ef13-449d-a078-ec6776582319_tex

 

After that brilliant analogy, my mom still didn't understand how everything was going slowly until it wasn't.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Mother mopar

Mother mopar 3379

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Somebody asked me to put the speed in which this all happened within context.  The whole "it happened slowly until it didn't" thing. We had the 13 years of civil war, and then in 10 days they went from moving towards Aleppo to occupying Damascus. That is actually pretty wild.

So I told this person it was like when I was in my early 20s and I was going to be late with my rent, I found myself having to bang the 50-something landlord while wearing a wig of dark hair and letting her call me by her dead husband's name, all the while her dipshit 25 year-old son was playing on his Playstation in the next room. He had the sound cranked up probably because he was trying to drown our the sound of his mom banging a guy younger than him, and with her loudly calling me by his dead dad's name, it was a bit hard for me to concentrate and satisfy her/finish.

It felt like I had been banging her for years, and she straight up asked if I was planning on finishing, and then before I could say anything, she became the first woman to shove a finger up my ass.  All of the sudden I was finishing inside her within seconds and I felt like....

f456b524-ef13-449d-a078-ec6776582319_tex

 

After that brilliant analogy, my mom still didn't understand how everything was going slowly until it wasn't.

We really need a WAT emoji. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106619

Posted
Posted
Somebody asked me to put the speed in which this all happened within context.  The whole "it happened slowly until it didn't" thing. We had the 13 years of civil war, and then in 10 days they went from moving towards Aleppo to occupying Damascus. That is actually pretty wild.
So I told this person it was like when I was in my early 20s and I was going to be late with my rent, I found myself having to bang the 50-something landlord while wearing a wig of dark hair and letting her call me by her dead husband's name, all the while her dipshit 25 year-old son was playing on his Playstation in the next room. He had the sound cranked up probably because he was trying to drown out the sound of his mom banging a guy younger than him, and with her loudly calling me by his dead dad's name, it was a bit hard for me to concentrate and satisfy her/finish.
It felt like I had been banging her for years, and she straight up asked if I was planning on finishing, and then before I could say anything, she became the first woman to shove a finger up my ass.  All of the sudden I was finishing inside her within seconds and I felt like....
f456b524-ef13-449d-a078-ec6776582319_text.gif
 
After that brilliant analogy, my mom still didn't understand how everything was going slowly until it wasn't.

This is one of the things I like about Surly. We all have had nearly identical experiences.
Right, guys?
Guys?
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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 29243

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Somebody asked me to put the speed in which this all happened within context.  The whole "it happened slowly until it didn't" thing. We had the 13 years of civil war, and then in 10 days they went from moving towards Aleppo to occupying Damascus. That is actually pretty wild.

So I told this person it was like when I was in my early 20s and I was going to be late with my rent, I found myself having to bang the 50-something landlord while wearing a wig of dark hair and letting her call me by her dead husband's name, all the while her dipshit 25 year-old son was playing on his Playstation in the next room. He had the sound cranked up probably because he was trying to drown out the sound of his mom banging a guy younger than him, and with her loudly calling me by his dead dad's name, it was a bit hard for me to concentrate and satisfy her/finish.

It felt like I had been banging her for years, and she straight up asked if I was planning on finishing, and then before I could say anything, she became the first woman to shove a finger up my ass.  All of the sudden I was finishing inside her within seconds and I felt like....

f456b524-ef13-449d-a078-ec6776582319_tex

 

After that brilliant analogy, my mom still didn't understand how everything was going slowly until it wasn't.

8ac95b51-d27c-40b8-a443-a2f92370d265_text.gif.71896076b365e815431bd7de595bdb36.gif

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26853

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Somebody asked me to put the speed in which this all happened within context.  The whole "it happened slowly until it didn't" thing. We had the 13 years of civil war, and then in 10 days they went from moving towards Aleppo to occupying Damascus. That is actually pretty wild.

So I told this person it was like when I was in my early 20s and I was going to be late with my rent, I found myself having to bang the 50-something landlord while wearing a wig of dark hair and letting her call me by her dead husband's name, all the while her dipshit 25 year-old son was playing on his Playstation in the next room. He had the sound cranked up probably because he was trying to drown out the sound of his mom banging a guy younger than him, and with her loudly calling me by his dead dad's name, it was a bit hard for me to concentrate and satisfy her/finish.

It felt like I had been banging her for years, and she straight up asked if I was planning on finishing, and then before I could say anything, she became the first woman to shove a finger up my ass.  All of the sudden I was finishing inside her within seconds and I felt like....

f456b524-ef13-449d-a078-ec6776582319_tex

 

After that brilliant analogy, my mom still didn't understand how everything was going slowly until it wasn't.

I don't know why you felt the need to make up the part about the wig.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26800

Posted
Posted

Russia pulled navy out of Syria. Just sitting out at sea. Article speculates where they could go. As noted, Libya is a consideration.

Russian naval vessels appear to have temporarily left their main port in Syria, satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify show, amid continuing uncertainty about Moscow's military future in the country after the fall of its ally, Bashar al-Assad.

The new satellite images show Moscow has at least temporarily brought its ships out of the port, with two guided missile frigates moored about 13km (eight miles) off the Syrian coast. It is unclear where the remainder of the fleet - pictured in earlier images - currently is.

Analysts have speculated that if Russia is forced to close the Tartous naval facility, it could redeploy its presence to Tobruk in Libya. The region is controlled by the Kremlin-backed Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and already hosts some Russian airbases.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgn8e2zznno

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