Prediction thread SEC Title Game- Georgia at Texas

[Muny_Tex 315]

This is probably the hardest game of the year to handicap.  One thing I absolutely would not touch is the O/U, as this could be anything from 4Q dogfight to a wire-to-wire Texas blowout.

If I had to bet the number, I would take Texas ADJ Line at -9.5 for +200 @ 1.25 units, and also place a separate half-unit on Georgia ML for +125.  That gives me the upside payout for the UT beatdown (which I think is prob 70% likely), along with some insurance against an unforeseen bedshitting by the Longhorns.  If Horns win close then I lose both, but I just don't see that scenario unfolding today.

Overall, Texas has a great chance to dominate this game based on the exceptional strength of the defense, along the running game + schematic combo that will enable Sark to essentially "Quinn-proof" the offense.  The extra wrinkle with Arch makes Kirby's gameplanning a lot more complicated, and also (FINALLY!) implies a willingness to swap QBs altogether if Ewers completely implodes again.  

Only thing that gives me pause is fact that Beck has not played a good full game basically all season (he's played like 3-4 good "halfs").  If he finally plays to his potential, and Etienne is healthy enough to give Dawgs balance on offense then there might not be enough endurance from the Texas D (or any team in the country) to keep 30+ points off the board.

Edited December 7 by Muny_Tex

[Horn80 6361]

27-20 Texas

27.   147 yards

[Wulaw Horn 19599]

Contest closed. 

[Irish Wrist Watch 1503]

Texas 33-30

[DoobieWah 1537]

On 12/3/2024 at 4:41 PM, staboner said:

sigh. bad matchup for us. have to limit our offense/ST giving the dawgs a short field. Considering the TOs and blocked punt with aggy, and well the luck (they dropped two picks) I just can't see it. it is who we is, is

georgia 24

texas 17

33 rushes for 98 yards

 

Hey girls - never ever ask this guy if your dress makes you look fat. 

It does, and he's gonna tell you.