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Prediction thread SEC Title Game- Georgia at Texas


Wulaw Horn

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This is probably the hardest game of the year to handicap.  One thing I absolutely would not touch is the O/U, as this could be anything from 4Q dogfight to a wire-to-wire Texas blowout.

If I had to bet the number, I would take Texas ADJ Line at -9.5 for +200 @ 1.25 units, and also place a separate half-unit on Georgia ML for +125.  That gives me the upside payout for the UT beatdown (which I think is prob 70% likely), along with some insurance against an unforeseen bedshitting by the Longhorns.  If Horns win close then I lose both, but I just don't see that scenario unfolding today.

Overall, Texas has a great chance to dominate this game based on the exceptional strength of the defense, along the running game + schematic combo that will enable Sark to essentially "Quinn-proof" the offense.  The extra wrinkle with Arch makes Kirby's gameplanning a lot more complicated, and also (FINALLY!) implies a willingness to swap QBs altogether if Ewers completely implodes again.  

Only thing that gives me pause is fact that Beck has not played a good full game basically all season (he's played like 3-4 good "halfs").  If he finally plays to his potential, and Etienne is healthy enough to give Dawgs balance on offense then there might not be enough endurance from the Texas D (or any team in the country) to keep 30+ points off the board.

Edited by Muny_Tex
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On 12/3/2024 at 4:41 PM, staboner said:

sigh. bad matchup for us. have to limit our offense/ST giving the dawgs a short field. Considering the TOs and blocked punt with aggy, and well the luck (they dropped two picks) I just can't see it. it is who we is, is

georgia 24

texas 17

33 rushes for 98 yards

 

Hey girls - never ever ask this guy if your dress makes you look fat. 

It does, and he's gonna tell you. 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 12/4/2024 at 6:33 AM, Vic Mackey said:

Why does it have to be one or the other? I want both. It's right in front of us. There's no one team you point to this year like a Bama or Georgia of years past and say they are clearly better than everyone.

Winning the SEC puts us in the best position to win the national championship. We get an extra week of rest. Get the highest ranking we can get which will be #2. Only need to win 3 games versus 4. This is like getting the bye in the NFL playoffs.

Just checking in. How did those byes work out for everybody? 

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On 12/3/2024 at 12:35 PM, Captain Ron said:

Jesus, another guy with this bad take about rest and treating it as a bye. WTF?!?!

A. it's a Championship - that's what you play for 

B. Who cares if you rest everyone if you have to play an extra game?

 

Anyway - Texas 20, Georgia 9

38 for 203

So bad take? Everybody w a first round bye lost. 

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On 12/2/2024 at 1:13 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

First time all year I don't like the matchup. I can't unsee what happened in October with us getting whipped up front and not being able to threaten them.  Georgia 27 Texas 17. This seems like a bad matchup for us in a styles make fights kind of way.  Hope I'm wrong.

Prop Bet- Total rushes and yards for Texas

21 for 73.

Silver lining- whatever happens with this game we are either the SEC champs in our first year in the conference which would just be delicious on so many levels- or we get the 5 or 6 seed and go something like Big 12 Champ then Boise or Indiana then SMU or something dumb into the semi-Final.  So, either way we will absolutely be rewarded for another fine regular season.  All that said lets go whip their asses. 

 

On 12/2/2024 at 1:19 PM, westexhorn said:

Georgia 27 - Texas 10

22 for 77

Offense gonna help Georgia again.  Punter and kicker blows too so don't see them helping much at all.

 

On 12/2/2024 at 1:28 PM, GreenspointTexas said:

This game is house money for us. That being said

 

georgia 31

Texas 20

 

On 12/2/2024 at 1:56 PM, BrazilHorn said:

GA 28

Texas 17

20 for 135

 

On 12/2/2024 at 2:05 PM, Jiggy-Z said:

I see the O being better prepared, but Quinn is still Quinn and Georgia's running game is still salty. Could be a weird game with injuries and players potentially resting for the playoff.

34-24 Dawgs

30 for 130.

 

On 12/2/2024 at 2:55 PM, Duane Moore said:

I don’t like this matchup either, for reasons discussed in the game thread. Hoping that the 8 OT’s last week have taken some of the starch out of UGA, that they are overconfident about the rematch, and that our offensive line is prideful enough to want to reclaim some of their dignity that they lost in Austin the first go round. If we can get 4 quarters of good Quinn, we can beat anyone, but he’ll need protection. 
 

Unfortunately, in rematches in the SECCG, the winner of the regular season game has a 5-2 record in the rematch. 

UGA 20

UT 14

UGA just has an extra gear that they can put on for games they care about where the other team isn’t Alabama. 

UT rushes 27 times for 89 yards. 
 

Hope I’m wrong, I had a bad feeling about last week and couldn’t have been further off. 

 

On 12/2/2024 at 4:30 PM, Red Five said:

Georgia 27 Texas 23

29 attempts, 131 yards

 

On 12/2/2024 at 7:39 PM, Mr. Drummond said:

27-17 Georgia 

27 for 101

 

On 12/2/2024 at 9:41 PM, Sgt Hulk said:

I dunno what the 3rd qtr hex is on this team and why they suck so much dick. But I’m still seeing Quinn’s deer in headlight look.  This team Is Jeckyl and Hyde and the defense was unfairly fucked last time.  So reverse jinxing 

uga 24 Tex 13 

 

On 12/3/2024 at 7:44 AM, jetsfan76 said:

Texas - 20

Georgia - 28

31 for 144

 

On 12/3/2024 at 4:41 PM, staboner said:

sigh. bad matchup for us. have to limit our offense/ST giving the dawgs a short field. Considering the TOs and blocked punt with aggy, and well the luck (they dropped two picks) I just can't see it. it is who we is, is

georgia 24

texas 17

33 rushes for 98 yards

 

 

On 12/3/2024 at 8:15 PM, 4th and 5 said:

24~17 dawgs
27 for 119

 

On 12/5/2024 at 10:47 AM, Mudcat35 said:

Georgia 24

Texas 20

33 for 176

 

On 12/7/2024 at 1:43 PM, satyanash said:

It should be a closer game, but our weaknesses are still there to be exploited - specifically, Quinn Ewers. And we cannot grind down UGA's DL the way we did against Kentucky and A&M.

UGA 24

UT 13

77 rushing yards on 23 carries

All of the assholes that correctly picked GA to win.

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On 12/2/2024 at 1:13 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

First time all year I don't like the matchup. I can't unsee what happened in October with us getting whipped up front and not being able to threaten them.  Georgia 27 Texas 17. This seems like a bad matchup for us in a styles make fights kind of way.  Hope I'm wrong.

Prop Bet- Total rushes and yards for Texas

21 for 73.

Silver lining- whatever happens with this game we are either the SEC champs in our first year in the conference which would just be delicious on so many levels- or we get the 5 or 6 seed and go something like Big 12 Champ then Boise or Indiana then SMU or something dumb into the semi-Final.  So, either way we will absolutely be rewarded for another fine regular season.  All that said lets go whip their asses. 

 

On 12/2/2024 at 1:19 PM, westexhorn said:

Georgia 27 - Texas 10

22 for 77

Offense gonna help Georgia again.  Punter and kicker blows too so don't see them helping much at all.

 

On 12/2/2024 at 2:55 PM, Duane Moore said:

I don’t like this matchup either, for reasons discussed in the game thread. Hoping that the 8 OT’s last week have taken some of the starch out of UGA, that they are overconfident about the rematch, and that our offensive line is prideful enough to want to reclaim some of their dignity that they lost in Austin the first go round. If we can get 4 quarters of good Quinn, we can beat anyone, but he’ll need protection. 
 

Unfortunately, in rematches in the SECCG, the winner of the regular season game has a 5-2 record in the rematch. 

UGA 20

UT 14

UGA just has an extra gear that they can put on for games they care about where the other team isn’t Alabama. 

UT rushes 27 times for 89 yards. 
 

Hope I’m wrong, I had a bad feeling about last week and couldn’t have been further off. 

 

On 12/3/2024 at 4:41 PM, staboner said:

sigh. bad matchup for us. have to limit our offense/ST giving the dawgs a short field. Considering the TOs and blocked punt with aggy, and well the luck (they dropped two picks) I just can't see it. it is who we is, is

georgia 24

texas 17

33 rushes for 98 yards

 

 

On 12/7/2024 at 1:43 PM, satyanash said:

It should be a closer game, but our weaknesses are still there to be exploited - specifically, Quinn Ewers. And we cannot grind down UGA's DL the way we did against Kentucky and A&M.

UGA 24

UT 13

77 rushing yards on 23 carries

All the assholes (including me) predicting under 100 yards.  

@Wulaw Horn wins by predicting 73 yards. 

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