Game Week Thread 2024 Playoffs Round 1: Clemson at Texas

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 3,537]

58 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Just on podcast #1 since the bracket and some media folks are pretty confident Clemson wins 

[Hermanator 7,570]

18 minutes ago, Dignan said:

Thoughts:

Only one time since 2019 (LSU and their historic offense)) has a national champ not been in the Top 15 in scoring offense and defense nationally. The only teams who qualify this year are: Oregon, Indiana, Notre Dame, and Tennessee. Take it for what it’s worth, but I find it interesting.

Oregon and Notre Dame (and IU I guess) also have veteran quarterbacks, which is a big advantage. Those are my picks to make the title game.

I think Texas struggles with Clemson, mainly Klubnik. He’s gonna play lights out. He’s also the best qb we’ve faced all year, by a mile. Hope I’m wrong, but Clemson is scary to me.

Side note: I don’t know shit really.

If our defense struggles with Klubnick they just completely failed to show up. He's not very good. They put up a lot of points against absolute garbage competition, but any team with even a decent defense held them down. We have an elite defense. 

They do not have an elite defense, but their defense is decent. Once again, it's Quinn and Sark that's the only concern for this game, just like the SEC championship game. Dabo is a fucking moron, but he knows how to win football games when he has superior talent. He won't have that this game. I do expect him to mildly outcoach Sark. Sark's expertise is everything it takes to build and run a successful program Sunday through Monday. His game day execution is decent, but not on par with how elite he is at program building.  

[South Austin 53,151]

19 minutes ago, Deej said:

Not even sure what Sirius/XM channel it was this morning, but the Klubnik has a score to settle narrative has already started. Sports talk guys are the worst. Maybe just a little research?

Klubnik is still mad about John Mackovic passing on him?

[chemHORN 1,298]

Sark has to self scout if we are going to have a chance and figure out how to fix the 3rd quarter and red zone problems that have plagued his offense since he got here.  His offense is great outside of the 20 and the 3rd quarter, but he needs to scout himself and see why his offense is terrible in those situations.  

[boilerhorn 1,602]

4 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Defense gave up a TD to UGA in the 3rd.

But otherwise, yeah. And against A&M the offense had two great drives, we just fucked them up at the end. And we had two good drives against UGA, we just missed a FG and had the other end at the beginning of the 4th quarter.

I do agree with fucked around in the 3rd against UK.

Anyway, this is a dumbass narrative.

Thanks - fixed it.  The narrative is silly.  Media fixated on stupid stats.  Texas lost the CCG for myriad reasons.  Texas won the other 3 games, so who cares?  I guess some want to use it to portend doom.

[Valmy77 13,567]

The idea that he desperately wanted to go to 5-7 Texas but had to settle for Clemson, a dynasty at the time, is laughable.

Besides what about Mukuba? Shouldn't he have a score to settle?

[utee94 16,065]

12 hours ago, Drew said:

Yeah I’m seeing quite a few “Clemson will shock Texas” takes.  
 

Mainly offensive issues related to their DL vs our OL and Quinn. Basically Georgia put out the blueprint. 

Georgia put out the blueprint 6 weeks ago.  The thing is, you've got to have Georgia's talent to make it work.  Clemson is... not Georgia.

We'll still make this game closer than it needs to be, but all of the folks equating Clemson's defense to Georgia's are going to look pretty stupid.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 3,537]

1 hour ago, gofuckyourself said:

I was dumbfounded -- though shouldn't have been -- when the game started with Golden bringing it out 5 yards deep and doing some lame fake lateral pass that fooled absolutely no one. And of course got tackled at the 10.

And I knew our special teams would once again fuck up in this game.

Banks' prep, coaching, adjustments -- you name it -- has not been stripper monkey worthy, to say the least.

High school teams in Texas have better special teams units than the one Banks' has put together this year. He's ass.

[Js1 86,924]

2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Georgia put out the blueprint 6 weeks ago.  The thing is, you've got to have Georgia's talent to make it work.  Clemson is... not Georgia.

If it was just that easy, why did we win every game leading up the SEC CG? 

 

[Valmy77 13,567]

We put up 389 yards against Georgia and held them to 277. I am not sure that is a consistent winning blueprint to beating people, even if Georgia managed to win.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,586]

Texas 31 - Clemson 13

[Hermanator 7,570]

I hope our team hears the next 2 weeks how every jackass on SiriusXm and ESPN think they're a bunch of scrubs because they lost to Georgia in overtime in the SEC title game. How fucking Clemson, a team whose only worth a shit wins all year were against SMU and Pitt, is going to walk into Austin and kick their ass. Keep all that shit coming.  

[Texas73 422]

Cade's parents went to aggy.

[CashMcCoy 3,404]

28 minutes ago, Deej said:

Not even sure what Sirius/XM channel it was this morning, but the Klubnik has a score to settle narrative has already started. Sports talk guys are the worst. Maybe just a little research?

Broke: Klubnik has a score to settle with Texas for under-recruiting him

Woke: Both of Texas’ starting safeties have logged years of practice time against Klubnik

[Duane Moore 5,636]

2 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

I hope our team hears the next 2 weeks how every jackass on SiriusXm and ESPN think they're a bunch of scrubs because they lost to Georgia in overtime in the SEC title game. How fucking Clemson, a team whose only worth a shit wins all year were against SMU and Pitt, is going to walk into Austin and kick their ass. Keep all that shit coming.  

Yeah, I think that might be what this team needs to pick itself back up after the UGA loss. Would love to be the trendy upset pick. 

[ATXhorn17 1,676]

The Cover 3 Podcast trolls are saying Texas will struggle vs. Clemson. “Texas hasn’t beat a team as good as Clemson this year…”

Horse shit. Clemson is a steaming dumpster fire with a record propped up by playing abysmal App State, WF, Florida St, NC State, etc squads…

I suspect the Texas D will make Clemson’s “resurgent offense” under Garrett Riley look like the version that scored 3 pts vs UGA in Week 1.

[Rimbo 26,852]

26 minutes ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

???  Elway won two Super Bowls.

Elway In His Prime did not win any Super Bowls. Elway Past His Prime did, but only with a Strong Running Game.

Elway In His Prime carried three teams with No Running Game (or defense, tbh) to Super Bowls, which they then lost badly.

The Broncos were the Bills before the Bills were the Bills, 0-4 total in Super Bowls, before the Bills and then Elway Past His Prime With a Running Game finally won one.

It makes sense if you see what I was responding to. What that person said was completely wrong because Elway literally did just that, 3 times, he just couldn't win against NFC teams that were much more complete.

[David Dennison 19,439]

8 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

I hope our team hears the next 2 weeks how every jackass on SiriusXm and ESPN think they're a bunch of scrubs because they lost to Georgia in overtime in the SEC title game. How fucking Clemson, a team whose only worth a shit wins all year were against SMU and Pitt, is going to walk into Austin and kick their ass. Keep all that shit coming.  

Most people will pick Texas to win this game.

[RoyalBevo21 912]

20 minutes ago, chemHORN said:

Sark has to self scout if we are going to have a chance and figure out how to fix the 3rd quarter and red zone problems that have plagued his offense since he got here.  His offense is great outside of the 20 and the 3rd quarter, but he needs to scout himself and see why his offense is terrible in those situations.  

It's simple. When you can't run the ball when you need to bad things happen. 

[Mr. Drummond 2,241]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Most people will pick Texas to win this game.

Yep.   But you have to fill up the next 2 weeks of content somehow.    "Texas hasn't beaten a top 25 team, so Clemson could give them a game" will be a top 3 discussion point.

[The Dog 44,770]

Nobody from ESPN is picking Clemson. Several are picking us to lose to ASU though: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/42853623/college-football-playoff-2024-bracket-picks

[markstanco 12,772]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Nobody from ESPN is picking Clemson. Several are picking us to lose to ASU though: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/42853623/college-football-playoff-2024-bracket-picks

Most of those picks has the opposing team scoring a LOT of points (win or lose) on this defense that will be well rested. 

[DigglerontheHoof 21,516]

We're the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.  We"ll go as far as our defense carries us. 

[Pancho 46,046]

 

[Pancho 46,046]

The officials will be a Big 10 crew and so will the next game against ASU

[Ricky Butler 2,789]

22 minutes ago, ATXhorn17 said:

The Cover 3 Podcast trolls are saying Texas will struggle vs. Clemson. “Texas hasn’t beat a team as good as Clemson this year…”

Horse shit. Clemson is a steaming dumpster fire with a record propped up by playing abysmal App State, WF, Florida St, NC State, etc squads…

I suspect the Texas D will make Clemson’s “resurgent offense” under Garrett Riley look like the version that scored 3 pts vs UGA in Week 1.

While it's true that we don't have a marquee win, I feel like people don't understand how strength of schedule works. Going 11-1 with our schedule is hard to do.

[ATXhorn17 1,676]

6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

The officials will be a Big 10 crew and so will the next game against ASU

Serious question:

If you are the BIG, why wouldn’t you try to screw over the SEC teams your crews are officiating? And vice versa for SEC officials overseeing BIG games. 

Example: in round 1, you could tilt the scales in favor of Clemson to eliminate one of Oregon, PSU, and OSUs major obstacles to the title.

Edited December 9 by ATXhorn17

[TexasGolf 5,384]

Thinking of going to the game.  Tickets on Stubhub are in the $300 (upper level) to $900 range.   Do you think prices will drop as the week goes on ?

[Huckleberry 34,403]

Well it's two weeks away so there will definitely be at least periods of time where they're lower. But there's a chance that they go up right at the end when people realize they can save on travel and hotel costs by going to this one instead of Atlanta. 

[Hefeweizen 5,416]

16 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

We're the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.  We"ll go as far as our defense carries us. 

I wish we had Trent Dilfer.

[B00M 6,725]

1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

no

So you’re saying we won’t have the pressure of expectations? And Clemson isn’t playing with house money? 

Clemson’s DL looks solid. They get sacks at a rate like Michigan and Tennessee. We’ve given up 28 sacks this year but 13 of those were against Georgia. The last time QE and our OL got humiliated by Georgia, the following week, Vandy got 4 sacks against us. I’d wager Clemson gets 3 or more in this game. 

If there’s something that gives me hope, it’s that their rushing defense, statistically, is like Kentucky’s. We should be able to run the ball. If we can’t do it consistently, or we fall behind early, watch out.

[Guadaloopy 11,129]

13 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

We're the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.  We"ll go as far as our defense carries us. 

Yep... there is a reason why Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and late-stage Peyton Manning have Super Bowl wins as starting QBs.

[TejasPedro 1,911]

Makuba reminds me of the Miami Hurricanes back in the day. 
 

Remember when that real red ass Seal played for the Canes? That mofo hit hard. He was a little crazy. 

[Vic Mackey 47,842]

32 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

We're the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.  We"ll go as far as our defense carries us. 

They also leaned on a very strong run game. Can we run the ball like that these playoffs? Dilfer did have to make some plays those playoffs, as Quinn will have to make. Dilfer had a 99yd TD pass against Raiders in the AFC championsghip game. Dilfer also only had 1 INT those playoffs. Quinn seems to be good for a few a game. That absolutely has to be cleaned up but he is what he is at this point and I doubt he will.

If we can run the ball like we did against aggy, I think we can go pretty deep. If we can't and have to rely on Quinn to make a lot of plays, it gets dicey. Defense is going to give up some points like they did against Georgia. We really need them to make some key turnovers that flip the field or even score themselves. Need a lot of timely sacks and pressure.

[The Dog 44,770]

Quote

Here are the first-round win probabilities:

12 Clemson at 5 Texas: Texas 79.7% win probability

11 SMU at 6 Penn State: Penn State 62.3% win probability

10 Indiana at 7 Notre Dame: Notre Dame 61.8% win probability

9 Tennessee at 8 Ohio State: Ohio State 63.8% win probability

Three of the four games (sans Texas-Clemson) are projected within six points, which is pretty fun. We missed a golden opportunity for an SWC callback game between SMU and Texas, but otherwise these are pretty appealing matchups.

Quote

Odds of winning the title:

1 Oregon 20.4%
5 Texas 17.2%
2 Georgia 16.6%
8 Ohio State 12.5%
7 Notre Dame 9.0%
6 Penn State 8.9%
9 Tennessee 5.1%
10 Indiana 4.1%
11 SMU 3.7%
3 Boise State 1.1%
12 Clemson 0.8%
4 Arizona State 0.6%

 

[Valmy77 13,567]

17.2%? I like those odds.

[DigglerontheHoof 21,516]

18 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

They also leaned on a very strong run game. Can we run the ball like that these playoffs? Dilfer did have to make some plays those playoffs, as Quinn will have to make. Dilfer had a 99yd TD pass against Raiders in the AFC championsghip game. Dilfer also only had 1 INT those playoffs. Quinn seems to be good for a few a game. That absolutely has to be cleaned up but he is what he is at this point and I doubt he will.

If we can run the ball like we did against aggy, I think we can go pretty deep. If we can't and have to rely on Quinn to make a lot of plays, it gets dicey. Defense is going to give up some points like they did against Georgia. We really need them to make some key turnovers that flip the field or even score themselves. Need a lot of timely sacks and pressure.

I'm lucky I got the year right, of course I don't remember all that shit. 

[TrashMaster G 18,029]

Some of you people are in serious need of this:

[Hermanator 7,570]

Who figures those odds?

What's the methodology?

On the surface it appears we got the best draw in the field. Have to go through the only 2 teams with a less than 1 percent chance to win it all to get to the semis

[Honeysucklerose 1,006]

It's pissing me off the number of season ticket holders selling their seats online.

[utee94 16,065]

28 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Who figures those odds?

What's the methodology?

On the surface it appears we got the best draw in the field. Have to go through the only 2 teams with a less than 1 percent chance to win it all to get to the semis

Part of the reason they have such low odds to win it all, is because they're playing against Texas.  Obviously Texas is considered one of the favorites.

 

[Stringer 1,487]

Thinking of going to the game.  Tickets on Stubhub are in the $300 (upper level) to $900 range.   Do you think prices will drop as the week goes on ?

I think they drop.

I’m interested to see attendance. School is out so the student section won’t be full. Plus, a lot of people have plans 5 days before Christmas and won’t be able to make the game. I’d be surprised if it’s a full house. We’ll see.

[Hermanator 7,570]

8 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Part of the reason they have such low odds to win it all, is because they're playing against Texas.  Obviously Texas is considered one of the favorites.

 

True, but if we had won on Saturday and were looking at mostly likely facing ND in the 2nd round, ND still wouldn't have a less than 1 percent chance of winning it. Provided the committee would have still dropped ND behind Georgia. 

We have the most advantageous draw in the field. We need to take advantage of that, and I expect we will. The talent advantage and depth over both those teams is wide up and down the roster. 

[Hermanator 7,570]

11 minutes ago, Stringer said:

I think they drop.

I’m interested to see attendance. School is out so the student section won’t be full. Plus, a lot of people have plans 5 days before Christmas and won’t be able to make the game. I’d be surprised if it’s a full house. We’ll see.

It's a playoff game at home. It'll be a full house. 

Tickets to the SEC title game dropped a ton from when we beat aggy to 2 hours before kickoff. Could have gotten a 200s level pair for just over $100 each. These won't drop nearly that much but I think upper levels will drop under $200 by morning of the 21st. 

Edited December 9 by Hermanator

[KingBobo81 546]

I wish the administration would have somebody follow the UT ticket buyer/seller FB page and similar ones to it and cancel tix for these people who are no better than ticket brokers/outrageously profiting. The amount of posts I saw for people who couldn’t go to the SEC championship for people who were selling because “something came up” was nauseating.

[UTexasFight 9,787]

2 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

this tweet is dumb/misleading.

It looks like it’s grossing up the red zone opportunities and red zone TDs for every TD that occurred before reaching the red zone. The tweet is correct in that we have a total of 55 offensive TDs on the year. However, 16 of those were explosives that occurred from outside of the 20.…including the 1 Saturday where the TD came from the 41 yard line.

We also had three other drives where we had a 1st and 10 from the UGA 21, 22, and 27 with only 6 points to show for it.

We’re at 66% in red zone TDs when we reach the red zone. Good enough for 47th in the country. (Clemson is 67th, ASU T-43, Oregon 21st, Georgia 19th FWIW).

better than the absurdly poor 51% (120th out of 133) we were last year but still not great.

If only we had a weapon on the bench we could utilize when the field gets short.

Edited December 9 by UTexasFight

[The Dog 44,770]

23 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Part of the reason they have such low odds to win it all, is because they're playing against Texas.  Obviously Texas is considered one of the favorites.

 

this. Clemson is the biggest underdog of all of the first round matchups. Both Massey and Sagarin have us as double digit favorites.

ASU is in a similar boat - the assumption is that they would face Texas and also be a significant underdog. 

Boise also likely faces Penn State and would be an even larger underdog - only reason they are slightly better odds is because PSU isn't as big of a favorite over SMU as we are over Clemson.

[Hank_Hill 19,744]

Love the people in this thread that think Klubnik is going to ball out against our D and we’re just going to shit down our leg in all facets. Never change Surly. 

[CurlyDumps 4,618]

1 minute ago, UTexasFight said:

We’re at 66% in red zone TDs when we reach the reach zone. Good enough for 47th in the country. (Clemson is 67th, ASU T-43, Oregon 21st, Georgia 19th FWIW).

Texas Homer of Inside Texas citied a red zone efficiency stat that showed we were 97th IIRC. Think it was a stat that includes all scoring. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,560]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

So based upon what I gleaned from the odds to win on Saturday and overall odds to win- if we beat Clemson making it to the final 8 we should have ever so slightly better odds of winning it all than Oregon, right?