Game Week Thread 2024 Playoffs Round 1: Clemson at Texas

[dcar00 14897]

If we score 24 points we win.

[sushihorn 3248]

5 hours ago, B00M said:

Texas missed Bama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU (most of the top of the SEC) and played a lot of ~.500 teams close.

Clemson did the same thing in a much weaker conference with SUB-.500 teams. And they had 3 regular season losses against that weaker schedule vs 1 loss for Texas. 

Texas has weaknesses. Clemson is a severely flawed team whose offense was good enough to cover those flaws most of the time against bad competition. 

[Funk Doctor Spock 13118]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

We’ve covered the spread 2 of our last 7 games. Vegas makes money. 

 

I wish I were Vegas. I know i would still be posting on Surly, but more like 

[Funk Doctor Spock 13118]

We have 19-20 INT'S which more than our opponents have TD's against us, and we have 39 sacks.

But sure, the #1 defense will have problems with [checks notes] Clemson. 

Clemson isn't Colorado State, but their defense is worse than ou, Michigan, Kentucky, A&M, Georgia (no shit), and tbh, I'm not looking it up, but maybe even Miss St, etc. 

Clemson is extremely flawed on both sides of the ball. Their offensive line is....not good. Their RB is pretty good, but their backup is bad. Their best WR Antonio Williams is ok. His production has come against all of the bottom half of the conference. Wesco has been really solid for a frosh. He's the one we need to cover.

Edit: wanted to add Klubnik stats are very flawed. Against better competition he played against (USCe) he threw for 290-0-1. Overall he has 3303/33/5 (weird numbers, but whatever. He just loooooove the number 33). Maybe we'll get 33 INT'S and 33 sacks against him to keep it going.

Our defense is lightyears better. 

Edited December 10 by Funk Doctor Spock

[Duane Moore 5636]

If Texas plays its A game we can beat every team in this field. If we screw around and keep hurting ourselves like we have in many games this season, we can absolutely lose to every team in this field, including Clemson. Odds are favorable that we’ll beat Clemson, but won’t be able to string together 4 games of the kind of execution it will take to run the table. I’m not going to worry about it. 
 

#analysis

[TexasPride10 597]

4 hours ago, Funk Doctor Spock said:

We have 19-20 INT'S which more than our opponents have TD's against us, and we have 39 sacks.

But sure, the #1 defense will have problems with [checks notes] Clemson. 

Clemson isn't Colorado State, but their defense is worse than ou, Michigan, Kentucky, A&M, Georgia (no shit), and tbh, I'm not looking it up, but maybe even Miss St, etc. 

Clemson is extremely flawed on both sides of the ball. Their offensive line is....not good. Their RB is pretty good, but their backup is bad. Their best WR Antonio Williams is ok. His production has come against all of the bottom half of the conference. Wesco has been really solid for a frosh. He's the one we need to cover.

Edit: wanted to add Klubnik stats are very flawed. Against better competition he played against (USCe) he threw for 290-0-1. Overall he has 3303/33/5 (weird numbers, but whatever. He just loooooove the number 33). Maybe we'll get 33 INT'S and 33 sacks against him to keep it going.

Our defense is lightyears better. 

[DanTheHorn 5061]

4 hours ago, Funk Doctor Spock said:

We have 19-20 INT'S which more than our opponents have TD's against us, and we have 39 sacks.

But sure, the #1 defense will have problems with [checks notes] Clemson. 

Clemson isn't Colorado State, but their defense is worse than ou, Michigan, Kentucky, A&M, Georgia (no shit), and tbh, I'm not looking it up, but maybe even Miss St, etc. 

Clemson is extremely flawed on both sides of the ball. Their offensive line is....not good. Their RB is pretty good, but their backup is bad. Their best WR Antonio Williams is ok. His production has come against all of the bottom half of the conference. Wesco has been really solid for a frosh. He's the one we need to cover.

Edit: wanted to add Klubnik stats are very flawed. Against better competition he played against (USCe) he threw for 290-0-1. Overall he has 3303/33/5 (weird numbers, but whatever. He just loooooove the number 33). Maybe we'll get 33 INT'S and 33 sacks against him to keep it going.

Our defense is lightyears better. 

Who is saying our defense will have trouble? Clemson is all about our offense and special teams possibly shitting the bed. Also they have a coach that has shown he can make the right calls at critical moments in the biggest of games. If we take care of business and don' t let them hang around we will be fine.

Edited December 10 by DanTheHorn

[Pimphand 6261]

Surly Posters:

 

[DanTheHorn 5061]

8 hours ago, Kdub said:

Jesus this thread. Bunch of fucking pussies

[RoyalBevo21 912]

6 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

And if the 4 run plays go for 11 total yards everyone will say “WHY DOES STUBBORN SARK KEEP RUNNING”

Surly will make sure all basis are covered.

Would you agree that 4 for 11 is much better than a negative play? Offense struggles quite a bit when they get behind the chains.

[Fud 9692]

Two of arguably our offense's best performances this year came after byes; OU (6.7 yards per play against a solid defense while Quinn played like shit while probably still being injured) and Florida (8.8 yards per play, the most this season against a P4)

[immamac 44197]

Clemson is not the 12th ranked team. They are 16th. They won a CCG and that's the only reason they are in. 

They are cannon fodder. They don't belong in the playoff they are in on a technicality. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3586]

8 hours ago, dcar00 said:

If we score 24 points we win.

I think we win if we get 14 lol. My prediction is 31-10

[Fud 9692]

For those interested, Draftkings has futures lines up

Texas -11.5 vs Arizona State

Clemson -4.5 vs Arizona State

Oregon -1.5 vs Ohio State

Oregon -6.5 vs Tennessee

Notre Dame -2.5 vs Georgia

Georgia -6.5 vs Indiana

SMU -5.5 vs Boise State

Penn State -12.5 vs Boise State

They currently have Texas -11 vs Clemson

[TreatyOak 17189]

10 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Cade Klubnik just scares you to death.

When you write ugly crap like this it hurts more than just Cade. It hurts the people behind him, who have sacrificed so much to get him to here he is today. I don't know Cade or his family because I'm not his father, (whom I hear is a really, really, great guy that everyone admires) but I know how much they have gone through to get him where he is. Word on the street is his father could have been a GREAT QB, but no one believed in him. And so he vowed that his son would get the opportunities that were unfairly denied to him. And he stood by Cade during the ugly seasons at Clemson, when the neighbors wouldn't ask for autographs anymore or even laugh when we drove past. It was embarrassing and painful. NOW, THEY'RE NOT LAUGHING ANYMORE, ARE THEY????!!!!

Look, the only thing you got in this world is what you can sell. And the funny thing is that you're a salesman, and you don't know that. After all the highways, and the trains, and the appointments, and the years, you end up worth more dead than alive. Eighty thousand people! Touchdown! Touchdown! Right between the goal posts! 

 

[Wishbone 4923]

15 hours ago, MotownHorn said:

If it’s 3 wouldn’t the SEC Championship Game be a good time to start using Arch?

 

15 hours ago, TexasPride10 said:

No, because we didn’t have to win that game. Plus, my option 3 literally said “saving it for the playoffs.”

Plus, I dont think anyone was counting on Bert losing his sense of direction in that game twice.

[B00M 6725]

20 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

When you write ugly crap like this it hurts more than just Cade. It hurts the people behind him, who have sacrificed so much to get him to here he is today. I don't know Cade or his family because I'm not his father, (whom I hear is a really, really, great guy that everyone admires) but I know how much they have gone through to get him where he is. Word on the street is his father could have been a GREAT QB, but no one believed in him. And so he vowed that his son would get the opportunities that were unfairly denied to him. And he stood by Cade during the ugly seasons at Clemson, when the neighbors wouldn't ask for autographs anymore or even laugh when we drove past. It was embarrassing and painful. NOW, THEY'RE NOT LAUGHING ANYMORE, ARE THEY????!!!!

Look, the only thing you got in this world is what you can sell. And the funny thing is that you're a salesman, and you don't know that. After all the highways, and the trains, and the appointments, and the years, you end up worth more dead than alive. Eighty thousand people! Touchdown! Touchdown! Right between the goal posts! 

 

Is every post you make AI generated? 

[TreatyOak 17189]

2 minutes ago, B00M said:

Is every post you make AI generated? 

Actually, a portion of this post is playwright Arthur Miller-generated. 

[Longboard Horn 41311]

22 hours ago, TexasGolf said:

Thinking of going to the game.  Tickets on Stubhub are in the $300 (upper level) to $900 range.   Do you think prices will drop as the week goes on ?

Get tickets now. Hell I saw some Peach Bowl tickets that are going for $98 a person right now. 

[GreenspointTexas 9930]

9 hours ago, dcar00 said:

If we score 24 points we win.

We havent done that against 3 of the last 4 teams we have played. And 3 of the 4 teams we have played over the last 4 weeks are worse than Clemson

[utee94 16063]

Ballgame

[BERT 4488]

44 minutes ago, Wishbone said:

 

Plus, I dont think anyone was counting on Bert losing his sense of direction in that game twice.

Which is odd cause I’m pretty good with geography 

[TexasGolf 5382]

5 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Ballgame

 

[Js1 86906]

Yeah this team won’t benefit from any rest at all. It will be exactly the same 

[Huckleberry 34403]

16 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

We havent done that against 3 of the last 4 teams we have played. And 3 of the 4 teams we have played over the last 4 weeks are worse than Clemson

Clemson is about the same team strength as A&M. Different ways of getting there but would be a pick'em type game at a neutral site.

[Skipper 6406]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Yeah this team won’t benefit from any rest at all. It will be exactly the same 

I think mental break probably will help just as much as physical recovery.  That was a brutal game to lose.   Has anyone seen practice schedule?  Curious if Sark just starting back up tomorrow to give a few days for a mental reset.  I could see a couple of light days this week getting scout team looks and then back to normal game week next week.

[texasdago 7752]

ChatGPT has spoken...

Predicting the outcome of a single game, especially a playoff match, is inherently uncertain. However, based on current analysis and season performance:

Prediction: Texas Longhorns Win

• Reasoning:
  1. Superior Seed and Performance: Texas has demonstrated a stronger season overall, finishing #5 in the rankings, compared to Clemson's #12. Their move to the SEC has prepared them for high-pressure, competitive matchups
     Fox 7 Austin
     FanDuel Sportsbook
     .
  2. Balanced Offense and Defense: Texas' combination of a dynamic quarterback in Quinn Ewers, a talented receiving corps, and a physical defense could be decisive
     Fox 7 Austin
     Winsipedia
     .
  3. Home-Field Advantage: Playing at home provides a comfort level and energy boost that could help the Longhorns maintain composure in critical moments
     Fox 7 Austin
     .

That said, Clemson is a dangerous underdog with playoff experience and a history of stepping up in big games. A strong defensive performance or an opportunistic turnover could swing momentum their way.

Score Estimate:

Texas 31 - Clemson 20
This estimate reflects Texas' offensive firepower combined with a defense capable of limiting Clemson's production.

[Hank Kingsley 21596]

Sark has two weeks to re-develop a red zone offense. We won't make it far in the playoffs, let alone possibly out of the Clemson game, without serious improvement. Can't lean so hard on the defense or Bert Auburn. 

Whether that's better play calling, adding an Arch package, or something else, he needs to get it figured out fast. 

 

[dcar00 14897]

10 hours ago, Funk Doctor Spock said:

 

Edit: wanted to add Klubnik stats are very flawed. Against better competition he played against (USCe) he threw for 290-0-1. Overall he has 3303/33/5 (weird numbers, but whatever. He just loooooove the number 33). Maybe we'll get 33 INT'S and 33 sacks against him to keep it going.

Our defense is lightyears better. 

 

[Drew 2833]

14 hours ago, RoyalBevo21 said:

I’m not even saying we need anything crazy. Putting this offense in positions like:

1st & 10 - 3 yard run 

2nd & 7 - 3 yard run 

3rd & 4 - (you have the entire playbook at your disposal) this is a down & distance where Helm and Golden should feast on crossing routes and drags

 

instead we’ll get 

1st & 10 - oopty oop razzle dazzle double screen Jaydon Blue - 2 yards 

2nd & 12 - Quinn arm punt deep ball to no one 

3rd & 12 - wisner check down 4 yards 

4th & 8 - Kern 32 yard punt

 

Of course this is all after fielding the kick 4 yards deep in the end zone and starting on our own 15, punting from our 17 and setting them up at midfield after only taking 58 seconds off the clock and fucking our defense over yet again.

[dcar00 14897]

2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

We havent done that against 3 of the last 4 teams we have played. And 3 of the 4 teams we have played over the last 4 weeks are worse than Clemson

uh price of tea and such....if we score 24 we win.

[Newdoc 3508]

3 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

NOW, THEY'RE NOT LAUGHING ANYMORE, ARE THEY????!!!!

 

I read that in this voice. 

[Fletch 5817]

15 hours ago, BERT said:

@B00M it’s ok, you can admit to us that your second favorite team is Clemson. Don’t worry, we’ll all judge you unfairly 

He’s a little upset after I showed him up in the batting cage the other day. Cut the kid some slack. 

[troph 25087]

those who are worried are scared little bitches. fucking grow a pair, will ya? 

[Duane Moore 5636]

4 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

When you write ugly crap like this it hurts more than just Cade. It hurts the people behind him, who have sacrificed so much to get him to here he is today. I don't know Cade or his family because I'm not his father, (whom I hear is a really, really, great guy that everyone admires) but I know how much they have gone through to get him where he is. Word on the street is his father could have been a GREAT QB, but no one believed in him. And so he vowed that his son would get the opportunities that were unfairly denied to him. And he stood by Cade during the ugly seasons at Clemson, when the neighbors wouldn't ask for autographs anymore or even laugh when we drove past. It was embarrassing and painful. NOW, THEY'RE NOT LAUGHING ANYMORE, ARE THEY????!!!!

Look, the only thing you got in this world is what you can sell. And the funny thing is that you're a salesman, and you don't know that. After all the highways, and the trains, and the appointments, and the years, you end up worth more dead than alive. Eighty thousand people! Touchdown! Touchdown! Right between the goal posts! 

 

Are you saying Cade is Biff Loman?

[Valmy77 13567]

3 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

We havent done that against 3 of the last 4 teams we have played. And 3 of the 4 teams we have played over the last 4 weeks are worse than Clemson

Well fucking good for Clemson.

[Dbeasy 15526]

No one really needs to post anymore. We can just have an AI chatbot post a concern about the game/team, then three chatbots can reference pussies, vaginas, and testicles, then have them all repeat for 14 days. It would be identical to the thread thus far. 

[dcar00 14897]

3 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

No one really needs to post anymore. We can just have an AI chatbot post a concern about the game/team, then three chatbots can reference pussies, vaginas, and testicles, then have them all repeat for 14 days. It would be identical to the thread thus far. 

do I have some news for you....

[TreatyOak 17189]

22 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

Are you saying Cade is Biff Loman?

Someone gets it. 

[TexasGolf 5382]

4 hours ago, Longboard Horn said:

Get tickets now. Hell I saw some Peach Bowl tickets that are going for $98 a person right now. 

hotel and post game ruths chris reservations booked.   looking for game tickets

[ATLLonghorn 1081]

I don't feel like starting my own thread. I watched every play Texas ran inside the Georgia 30 to see what is going with the offense because the offense has been pretty dreadful turning quality drives into points the second half of the season. You can even ignore my analysis if you want (understandable) because I put video of all the plays in there for you to be able to draw your own conclusions.

https://open.substack.com/pub/danweiner/p/watching-every-texas-red-zoneish?r=fm9fw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

[TxEx84 439]

Damn, dude. You have way too much free time. But thanks!

[sidis 9990]

14 hours ago, dcar00 said:

If we score 24 points we win.

true story.

[ATLLonghorn 1081]

Just now, TxEx84 said:

Damn, dude. You have way too much free time. But thanks!

Been out of work for a year, thankfully that should be coming to a soon barring a paperwork snafu 🙏

[sushihorn 3248]

4 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

We havent done that against 3 of the last 4 teams we have played. And 3 of the 4 teams we have played over the last 4 weeks are worse than Clemson

Those defenses are not worse than Clemson and their defense is the most relevant metric when projecting Longhorn scoring. They are between Florida and aggy in YPP.  Clemson’s D is average or slightly below in the universe of all big college teams. It’s way below many middle of the pack SEC defenses when you see who they have compiled that record against. 

Sadly for Clemson, they are #87 against the run at 4.56 YPC. Is the Texas running game better than the mean in CFB? Even 4.5 YPC is going to make things easier on Ewers. I suspect it will be better than an average that includes The Citadel, Appalachian State, Stanford and NC State.

They have a good running QB, which gives them a puncher’s chance but that runs right into the strength of this Texas team. Combine that with an OL that hasn’t performed well and Klubnick may be forced to play hero ball early and often.

 

[texifornia 58748]

3 hours ago, Skipper said:

I think mental break probably will help just as much as physical recovery.  That was a brutal game to lose.   Has anyone seen practice schedule?  Curious if Sark just starting back up tomorrow to give a few days for a mental reset.  I could see a couple of light days this week getting scout team looks and then back to normal game week next week.

Sark gave the team a few days off, I think they're back tomorrow or Thursday.

[bad_teammate 13479]

22 minutes ago, ATLLonghorn said:

I don't feel like starting my own thread. I watched every play Texas ran inside the Georgia 30 to see what is going with the offense because the offense has been pretty dreadful turning quality drives into points the second half of the season. You can even ignore my analysis if you want (understandable) because I put video of all the plays in there for you to be able to draw your own conclusions.

https://open.substack.com/pub/danweiner/p/watching-every-texas-red-zoneish?r=fm9fw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Loved it, thanks!

[sidis 9990]

23 minutes ago, ATLLonghorn said:

I don't feel like starting my own thread. I watched every play Texas ran inside the Georgia 30 to see what is going with the offense because the offense has been pretty dreadful turning quality drives into points the second half of the season. You can even ignore my analysis if you want (understandable) because I put video of all the plays in there for you to be able to draw your own conclusions.

https://open.substack.com/pub/danweiner/p/watching-every-texas-red-zoneish?r=fm9fw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

good job and basically agree on everything you put in there.

[Js1 86906]

23 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Sark gave the team a few days off, I think they're back tomorrow or Thursday.

2-3 days off between championship game/last game of the regular season and postseason is pretty standard.

I'm sure the team watched the Selection Show on Sunday together, then it's lift/rest/rehab for a few days before film sessions and practice start.  Final exams are also the end of this week. 

[Funk Doctor Spock 13118]

9 hours ago, DanTheHorn said:

Who is saying our defense will have trouble? Clemson is all about our offense and special teams possibly shitting the bed. Also they have a coach that has shown he can make the right calls at critical moments in the biggest of games. If we take care of business and don' t let them hang around we will be fine.

It all goes together. We have just enough offense to actually score enough points and let our defense do work. Mack was also Dabo before Dabo, but then he went down the rabbit hole of shitty coaches and couldn't learn to swim. Dabo is too far in to ever have the players to compete with Texas, even if Quinn hinders us. If we score 20, we're fine. Albeit, it might be closer than we want it (which honestly, I doubt. We'll score more than 20), but we're making the semis. That's when we need to buckle up. Clemson and ASU are warm-up games before it gets real.