Game Week Thread 2024 Playoffs Round 1: Clemson at Texas

[Js1 86,902]

Also the dorms "close" on the 17th.  Has anyone seen anything from UT about them staying open through the 21st/22nd for the game? 

I know ND extended the date until the dorms close.  PSU also moved a bunch of stuff to accommodate a Sat home playoff game and extended the end of semester activities through Sunday the 22nd. 

[Funk Doctor Spock 13,117]

9 hours ago, TexasPride10 said:

 

[Funk Doctor Spock 13,117]

20 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

A lot of you seem to know Sark pretty intimately. NTTAWWT

 

[Funk Doctor Spock 13,117]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Also the dorms "close" on the 17th.  Has anyone seen anything from UT about them staying open through the 21st/22nd for the game? 

I know ND extended the date until the dorms close.  PSU also moved a bunch of stuff to accommodate a Sat home playoff game and extended the end of semester activities through Sunday the 22nd. 

No, but I bet they extend the date and haven't released it yet, or I haven't seen it. 

[DanTheHorn 5,061]

9 minutes ago, Funk Doctor Spock said:

It all goes together. We have just enough offense to actually score enough points and let our defense do work. Mack was also Dabo before Dabo, but then he went down the rabbit hole of shitty coaches and couldn't learn to swim. Dabo is too far in to ever have the players to compete with Texas, even if Quinn hinders us. If we score 20, we're fine. Albeit, it might be closer than we want it (which honestly, I doubt. We'll score more than 20), but we're making the semis. That's when we need to buckle up. Clemson and ASU are warm-up games before it gets real. 

Again you said people were saying, who is saying?

[BigHornedLurker 2,105]

some actual news 

https://www.footballzebras.com/2024/12/2024-25-bowl-officiating-assignments/

Big 10 Officials are ref'ing the Clemson @ Texas game 

WHEN we win, Big 10 Officials are ref'ing the Texas vs Arizona State Game 

Sets us up for a nice run 

Beyond that is TBD based on winners 

Edited December 10 by BigHornedLurker

[Funk Doctor Spock 13,117]

Just now, DanTheHorn said:

Again you said people were saying, who is saying?

People in the beginning of the thread were wetting their panties over Clemson being some team that will give us problems. I said they were average. Some people wanted to argue Klubnik is some kind of threat (yes, he can run the ball, but he needs to prepare to get the shit knocked out of him) and their defense is good enough to keep us in check (they're not).

I'm not saying we're putting up 35 on the dudes, but we're winning by 2+ TD's.

Anyway, I don't want to go all the way back through this cesspool and find the people who were lamenting and getting up in arms over a Clemson team who barely got into the playoffs, but if you want to read every comment, have it, chief. 

[jw4381 3,239]

1 hour ago, ATLLonghorn said:

I don't feel like starting my own thread. I watched every play Texas ran inside the Georgia 30 to see what is going with the offense because the offense has been pretty dreadful turning quality drives into points the second half of the season. You can even ignore my analysis if you want (understandable) because I put video of all the plays in there for you to be able to draw your own conclusions.

https://open.substack.com/pub/danweiner/p/watching-every-texas-red-zoneish?r=fm9fw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

That’s some good shit man. You should be hired as a quality analyst. 

[bullet 1,626]

16 hours ago, sushihorn said:

Clemson did the same thing in a much weaker conference with SUB-.500 teams. And they had 3 regular season losses against that weaker schedule vs 1 loss for Texas. 

Texas has weaknesses. Clemson is a severely flawed team whose offense was good enough to cover those flaws most of the time against bad competition. 

And based on the Massey composite, UT had the second toughest schedule (after UGA) of the 12 playoff teams.

[Dahobbs 18,180]

2 minutes ago, bullet said:

And based on the Massey composite, UT had the second toughest schedule (after UGA) of the 12 playoff teams.

Massey also has Michigan, A&M, Florida, and Oklahoma in the top 25. Sagarin is similar except Oklahoma is just out of the top 25 at 28. The computers like our schedule a lot more than pollsters. 

[Billy Pilgrim 2,058]

1 hour ago, BigHornedLurker said:

some actual news 

https://www.footballzebras.com/2024/12/2024-25-bowl-officiating-assignments/

Big 10 Officials are ref'ing the Clemson @ Texas game 

WHEN we win, Big 10 Officials are ref'ing the Texas vs Arizona State Game 

Sets us up for a nice run 

Beyond that is TBD based on winners 

Good to see big 12 refs won’t be meddling in this game.

[ztejas 44,114]

Clemson jumped on SMU in a hurry last week with a TD from the SMU 41 after a fumble and a TD from the SMU 28 after a big punt return exacerbated by a 15 yard penalty on SMU on the return.

Then they traded TDs.

The rest of the way SMU outscored them 24-13 and in the 2H wore Clemson out on both sides of the LoS and for the most part shut their passing game down. Clemson got another big kick return in the waning seconds of the 4Q and then their FG kicker beat his career high by 5 yards to avoid OT. 

That was all with the Tigers being called for 0 penalties and not turning the ball over and playing in a VERY friendly neutral-site environment. 

They are going to bring pressure at Quinn. Guessing they do it early to try and jump on Texas or cause a mistake. They will probably play a pretty clean game and try and hang with Texas straight up. Good for them - because I don't think there's any way in hell they hang with Texas for 4 Qs like that in DKR. Texas' 1s are better - Texas' 2s and 3s are a lot fucking better. 

Absent a total meltdown from Ewers (like even worse than 1H of the 1st Georgia game) and a bunch of S/T fuckups from Texas they will likely struggle to keep it within two scores. Even if EVERYTHING goes their way I doubt that gives them better than a coinflip chance at the end of the game.

They probably are the 2nd best team Texas has played but that isn't saying a lot and Texas has been seriously tested by a much better team twice. Texas losing this game would be completely out of character for who this team has been all season - and that includes the losses to Georgia. 

Edited December 11 by ztejas

[jdhorn92 1,584]

Their RB is hurt.  Not sure if he'll be ready. Their RB2 is out, injured badly vs SMU.  If the started isnt back, we'll see a ton of hero ball. 

[Bama Llama 1,505]

The obnoxiously loud Clemson band always plays some dissonant unrhythmic bullshit tune when the opponent is on offense and they hold the final notes until way past the point of whatever that line is.  Refs alwsys allowed them to get away with it each time we played them in CFP championship or semis.  Nossir, I don’t like it.  The DKR home crowd will more ghan make up for it.

[Bama Llama 1,505]

I mean they’re blasting right up until the got damn center snaps the ball, and beyond.  It usually causes 3-4 false starts per game.

[Rickylovesweed 15,305]

4 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

Their RB is hurt.  Not sure if he'll be ready. Their RB2 is out, injured badly vs SMU.  If the started isnt back, we'll see a ton of hero ball. 

Yeah, Mafah has been banged up for like a month which is why you've seen a huge dip in production.

Feels like their run game will have to be Klubnik. He had 24 carries combined in the last 2 games because Clemson needed it. I never want a player injured but Texas should be ready to light him up to send him a message. 

 

[dcar00 14,897]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Massey also has Michigan, A&M, Florida, and Oklahoma in the top 25. Sagarin is similar except Oklahoma is just out of the top 25 at 28. The computers like our schedule a lot more than pollsters. 

computers -   SEC is MeatGrinder(tm)

eye test - SEC is NOT MeatGrinder(tm)

I am so confused...

[Dahobbs 18,180]

10 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

computers -   SEC is MeatGrinder(tm)

eye test - SEC is NOT MeatGrinder(tm)

I am so confused...

Computers love Michigan. I find it interesting. 

[Hornbeliever 727]

What would the spreads be if Alabama played Clemson?  After reading this thread, I’m beginning to think UT should not have been picked and Alabama should have gotten our spot.  

[Rickylovesweed 15,305]

38 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Computers love Michigan. I find it interesting. 

Their defense and special teams are really good. If Michigan had a top-40 offense, they would be a playoff team. 

Also, if we could just get the Ewers from the Michigan game we would win the national title. 

Edited December 11 by Rickylovesweed

[Dahobbs 18,180]

4 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Their defense and special teams are really good. If Michigan had a top-40 offense, they would be a playoff team. 

Also, if we could just get the Ewers from the Michigan game we would win the national title. 

In the SEC title game, he was as close to that as he has been since injury. We'll need our run game to show up too in order to win. 

[markstanco 12,771]

Computers love Michigan. I find it interesting. 

Sounds like they are still on Windows 10.

[Hank_Hill 19,701]

1 hour ago, Bama Llama said:

The obnoxiously loud Clemson band always plays some dissonant unrhythmic bullshit tune when the opponent is on offense and they hold the final notes until way past the point of whatever that line is.  Refs alwsys allowed them to get away with it each time we played them in CFP championship or semis.  Nossir, I don’t like it.  The DKR home crowd will more ghan make up for it.

We put visiting bands way the fuck up in Bolivia so it don’t make a shit

[HenryJames 67,111]

[BarthHollamew 251]

6 hours ago, Funk Doctor Spock said:

People in the beginning of the thread were wetting their panties over Clemson being some team that will give us problems. I said they were average. Some people wanted to argue Klubnik is some kind of threat (yes, he can run the ball, but he needs to prepare to get the shit knocked out of him) and their defense is good enough to keep us in check (they're not).

I'm not saying we're putting up 35 on the dudes, but we're winning by 2+ TD's.

Anyway, I don't want to go all the way back through this cesspool and find the people who were lamenting and getting up in arms over a Clemson team who barely got into the playoffs, but if you want to read every comment, have it, chief. 

Yeah, I’m pretty confident we’ll be up by 14-17 points late in the 2nd quarter, early 3rd qtr. . . 

[Gucci_Suit 2,806]

7 hours ago, Js1 said:

Also the dorms "close" on the 17th.  Has anyone seen anything from UT about them staying open through the 21st/22nd for the game? 

I know ND extended the date until the dorms close.  PSU also moved a bunch of stuff to accommodate a Sat home playoff game and extended the end of semester activities through Sunday the 22nd. 

I’m not sure but I live in Tarrytown and will accept some select fans from Hardin House to stay for the week. 

Edited December 11 by Gucci_Suit

[TexasGolf 5,382]

32 minutes ago, BarthHollamew said:

Yeah, I’m pretty confident we’ll be up by 14-17 points late in the 2nd quarter, early 3rd qtr. . . 

Then what… 🤣😂🤣

[BarthHollamew 251]

Exactly

[Voluminous Banality 1,160]

2 hours ago, BarthHollamew said:

Yeah, I’m pretty confident we’ll be up by 14-17 points late in the 2nd quarter, early 3rd qtr. . . 

[HenryJames 67,111]

11 hours ago, Hornbeliever said:

What would the spreads be if Alabama played Clemson?  After reading this thread, I’m beginning to think UT should not have been picked and Alabama should have gotten our spot.  

Even though Alabama didn’t make the playoff, I have them playing Clemson in the final.

[Magus Ossis 2,996]

I haven't read the whole thread (yet?) but wanted to post an observation: Sports-media figures like to track streaks. With a 12-team field, significant playoff-appearance streaks will be possible. As the only returning team from last year's field, we are in position to own the longest playoff streak for as long as we stay good.

[Irish Wrist Watch 1,470]

16 hours ago, ATLLonghorn said:

I don't feel like starting my own thread. I watched every play Texas ran inside the Georgia 30 to see what is going with the offense because the offense has been pretty dreadful turning quality drives into points the second half of the season. You can even ignore my analysis if you want (understandable) because I put video of all the plays in there for you to be able to draw your own conclusions.

https://open.substack.com/pub/danweiner/p/watching-every-texas-red-zoneish?r=fm9fw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Great analysis, wildly liked by Surly, hard to watch. Ewers is warmed over dogshit inside the 25 yardline. WAshington game all over again. Fucking EMBARRASSING. You're right about Sark though. He needs an Offensive Coordinator or at least advisor who is planning ahead while the D is on the field. And he sure as hell needed to do a better job running the ball. Georgia gave the rest of the league a blueprint on how to stop QE. Of course, no amount of planning is going to compensate for the crap passes Tippytoes was throwing out there.

Arch gets five on a first down play, which makes getting another first down almost inevitable. We get it, and does Sark put him back in for the next first down play? Fuck no.

I'd say the best plan might be that once we reach an opponents thirty, to have Second Teamers bind and gag Ewers on the sideliine and perhaps roll him up in a tarp so that Sark has to play Arch. Release him with each new possession, but have a crack unit ready to run on the field and drag him to the sidelines once we reach the red zone. Could work.

[Leanderman 2,350]

Your plan for the future?

[Magus Ossis 2,996]

The good news is that we might actually have already played our toughest two games of the season. UGA prior to injuries sustained against us just might have been better than the teams we'll see in the playoffs.

[hookemATL 12,228]

All of you can relax. I am ensuring that Texas wins and wins big, through my own personal sacrifice. 

I missed attending the OU game (wedding) and also had to sit out Florida.  We went in dry on both, and had some of our most complete performances in those games. Clearly this is because I was not in attendance, and my rampant mental illness and/or deranged superstition has really stuck with me and the voices in my head on this issue  

Therefore, I will forego attending the Clemson game and will instead be deer hunting / fishing all day. Therefore, feel safe in predicting Texas by 21+, and another complete performance in all facets of the game.  

If this holds true once again, I will consider not watching the remaining games so as not to disturb the juju.

 

Edited December 11 by hookemATL

[Dahobbs 18,180]

17 hours ago, ATLLonghorn said:

I don't feel like starting my own thread. I watched every play Texas ran inside the Georgia 30 to see what is going with the offense because the offense has been pretty dreadful turning quality drives into points the second half of the season. You can even ignore my analysis if you want (understandable) because I put video of all the plays in there for you to be able to draw your own conclusions.

https://open.substack.com/pub/danweiner/p/watching-every-texas-red-zoneish?r=fm9fw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

This is good stuff. On the 2nd and 10 throw in OT to Golden, you missed that the only reason the play doesn't work is the DB pushes off Golden during his cut. This prevents Golden from cutting as hard and helps the DB stay in position. It is hard to see on the All 22, but much more obvious on the close up. It is a full arm extension push by the DB. Without that push off, Golden is open for a TD there. 

[The Dog 44,769]

14 hours ago, bullet said:

And based on the Massey composite, UT had the second toughest schedule (after UGA) of the 12 playoff teams.

Texas has beaten a whole bunch of better than average teams and one good one (aggy, believe it or not).

4 minutes ago, Magus Ossis said:

The good news is that we might actually have already played our toughest two games of the season. UGA prior to injuries sustained against us just might have been better than the teams we'll see in the playoffs.

Josh Pate had FanDuel do hypothetical betting lines for his bracket and they had Penn State as a pick 'em over UGA due to their injuries. They are definitely a better team with Beck and that punter is a big loss. (He had UGA beating us a third time in the title game.)

[Dahobbs 18,180]

1 minute ago, hookemATL said:

All of you can relax. I am ensuring that Texas wins and wins big, through my own personal sacrifice. 

I missed attending the OU game (wedding) and also had to sit out Florida.  We went in dry on both, and had some of our most complete performances in those games. Clearly this is because I was not in attendance, and my rampant mental illness and/or deranged superstition has really stuck with me and the voices in my head. 

Therefore, I will forego attending the Clemson game and will instead be deer hunting / fishing all day. Therefore, feel safe in predicting Texas by 21+, and another complete performance in all facets of the game.  

If this holds true once again, I will consider not watching the remaining games so as not to disturb the juju.

 

If it does, I know a guy that can make sure you don't watch any other games. 

[hookemATL 12,228]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

If it does, I know a guy that can make sure you don't watch any other games. 

Look if you are tryna kill me, youd be better off coming at me with a buxom Latina offering a fat joint and a good time to keep me distracted. Otherwise I’ve got way too many Liam neeson/karate skills. 

[ATLLonghorn 1,081]

18 hours ago, ATLLonghorn said:

I don't feel like starting my own thread. I watched every play Texas ran inside the Georgia 30 to see what is going with the offense because the offense has been pretty dreadful turning quality drives into points the second half of the season. You can even ignore my analysis if you want (understandable) because I put video of all the plays in there for you to be able to draw your own conclusions.

https://open.substack.com/pub/danweiner/p/watching-every-texas-red-zoneish?r=fm9fw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

One thing to add to this that I looked at this morning: for context and reference, College Football Data (https://collegefootballdata.com/) where I pull my info from defines a scoring opportunity as a possession that advances past the opponents 40 yard line. Over the past four weeks of the season (Arkansas, Kentucky, A&M and Georgia) Texas averaged less than a field goal (2.8 points per opportunity).

 

[Thatguy 9,279]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

This is good stuff. On the 2nd and 10 throw in OT to Golden, you missed that the only reason the play doesn't work is the DB pushes off Golden during his cut. This prevents Golden from cutting as hard and helps the DB stay in position. It is hard to see on the All 22, but much more obvious on the close up. It is a full arm extension push by the DB. Without that push off, Golden is open for a TD there. 

Yeah Golden has to knock that arm away. You can't let a DB stiff arm you. 

[Tex Long 4,609]

14 hours ago, Bama Llama said:

... The DKR home crowd will more ghan make up for it.

...

I mean they’re blasting right up until the got damn center snaps the ball, and beyond.  It usually causes 3-4 false starts per game.

Apparently there is some (probably SECSECSEC) rule against throwing water bottles onto the field.

But... is there any rule against throwing water bottles at other folks in the stands - you know, like people playing musical instruments?

[Beantown Express 2.0 6,586]

19 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

Yeah Golden has to knock that arm away. You can't let a DB stiff arm you. 

If Golden knocked the DBs arm away I am 100% confident he would have been called for offensive pass interference by that ref crew.  

[gurt 796]

18 hours ago, ATLLonghorn said:

I don't feel like starting my own thread. I watched every play Texas ran inside the Georgia 30 to see what is going with the offense because the offense has been pretty dreadful turning quality drives into points the second half of the season. You can even ignore my analysis if you want (understandable) because I put video of all the plays in there for you to be able to draw your own conclusions.

https://open.substack.com/pub/danweiner/p/watching-every-texas-red-zoneish?r=fm9fw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

A couple follow ups to get deeper into the actual calls 

for 4th quarter, Georgia 16-13, 1st & 10, Georgia 14, 29 seconds left

the play call is double screen Y delay as seen below.  The first and likely only read is the TE after the double fakes.  To me this highlights how Sark can get lost on 'cool' plays that make you look like a genius when they hit, but are foolish when considering the current context you're in.  This is a long developing play as you mentioned, and it only has one real option, though of course if the OL could've somehow held up for 5 seconds I assume Quinn would've looked at Moore in the endzone.  How likely is that against a Georgia team that has shown it will beat your OL relatively easy and frankly seems to know what is coming a lot of the time.

Final play

this is a play called Mesh Traffic, some examples linked to below.  To answer your question, yes this is going to the RB all day.  Which again, ignores the context of 8 quarters of play against a team like Georgia that is simply not going to get beat in the open field very often.  If you're gonna run that play, it needs to be to Blue over Wisner, since his best skill is speed in the open field.  But either way that play is another example of Sark getting too cute instead of running concepts with multiple reads.  Perhaps he doesn't trust Quinn to go through multiple reads?  Doesn't trust the OL to block long enough for Quinn to make it to multiple reads?  

 

 

 

[ATLLonghorn 1,081]

18 minutes ago, gurt said:

A couple follow ups to get deeper into the actual calls 

for 4th quarter, Georgia 16-13, 1st & 10, Georgia 14, 29 seconds left

the play call is double screen Y delay as seen below.  The first and likely only read is the TE after the double fakes.  To me this highlights how Sark can get lost on 'cool' plays that make you look like a genius when they hit, but are foolish when considering the current context you're in.  This is a long developing play as you mentioned, and it only has one real option, though of course if the OL could've somehow held up for 5 seconds I assume Quinn would've looked at Moore in the endzone.  How likely is that against a Georgia team that has shown it will beat your OL relatively easy and frankly seems to know what is coming a lot of the time.

Final play

this is a play called Mesh Traffic, some examples linked to below.  To answer your question, yes this is going to the RB all day.  Which again, ignores the context of 8 quarters of play against a team like Georgia that is simply not going to get beat in the open field very often.  If you're gonna run that play, it needs to be to Blue over Wisner, since his best skill is speed in the open field.  But either way that play is another example of Sark getting too cute instead of running concepts with multiple reads.  Perhaps he doesn't trust Quinn to go through multiple reads?  Doesn't trust the OL to block long enough for Quinn to make it to multiple reads?  

 

 

 

good shit brother, thanks for the insight.

Don't have much to add on the last play then. It's just depressing with the game on the line that's what Sark called.

On the double screen Y delay I wonder if there's a modification in our offense for the outside receiver to be an option too. Ewers doesn't love throwing the ball in the middle of the field, but he has thrown it to Helm in some of those situations. Either way, Georgia was ready for it and wasn't going to let Helm get open on it. Seems like almost everything Sark wanted to dial up Georgia just had a plan for.

[TreatyOak 17,188]

 

[Tex Long 4,609]

24 minutes ago, ATLLonghorn said:

Seems like almost everything Sark wanted to dial up Georgia just had a plan for.

I think one  of their players said as much after the first game. Something along the lines of "we knew what they were running, on every play." 

Wasn't sure at the time if they were listening in on the radio, or we were showing some tell, or the talking heads that said Sark had no tendencies are wrong.

 

[Dahobbs 18,180]

2 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

I think one  of their players said as much after the first game. Something along the lines of "we knew what they were running, on every play." 

Wasn't sure at the time if they were listening in on the radio, or we were showing some tell, or the talking heads that said Sark had no tendencies are wrong.

 

I still think we have a tell on outside zone. Georgia knows when we are running it. I was also frustrated that we didn't keep running from the pistol. I think we were much better with that. 

[bullet 1,626]

3 hours ago, Leanderman said:

Your plan for the future?

What were you doing in my living room????

I have that rug.

[Leanderman 2,350]

"What were you doing in my living room????

I have that rug."

Ask your wife. Better yet. don't