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Posted
  On 12/26/2024 at 11:23 PM, Huckleberry said:

He's 100% correct. Pitt has about an 80% chance to score the TD there. Plus Reid is cramping. Terrible decision to kick even if they win.

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And a 20% chance to lose the game, vs. pretty much guaranteed chance NOT to lose if you kick it.

And there's the 2-pointer one play later.

Posted
  On 12/26/2024 at 11:23 PM, Huckleberry said:

He's 100% correct. Pitt has about an 80% chance to score the TD there. Plus Reid is cramping. Terrible decision to kick even if they win.

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80%?  I thought 3rd/4th and 1 was generally about 2/3rds successful.  I suppose Pitt vs Toledo should be higher than that though.

Posted
  On 12/26/2024 at 11:25 PM, Rimbo said:

And a 20% chance to lose the game, vs. pretty much guaranteed chance NOT to lose if you kick it.

And there's the 2-pointer one play later.

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Yeah but it's 50/50 at the start of each OT.  If you think you have a >50% chance to get it you should go.

Posted
  On 12/26/2024 at 11:27 PM, WBT said:

80%?  I thought 3rd/4th and 1 was generally about 2/3rds successful.  I suppose Pitt vs Toledo should be higher than that though.

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Based on how the game was going and the Pitt OL was dominating the LOS at that time. It was a pulled out of my ass number, not a statistic. 

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