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2024 GameAbove Sports Bowl - Pittsburgh vs. Toledo


satyanash

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1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

He's 100% correct. Pitt has about an 80% chance to score the TD there. Plus Reid is cramping. Terrible decision to kick even if they win.

And a 20% chance to lose the game, vs. pretty much guaranteed chance NOT to lose if you kick it.

And there's the 2-pointer one play later.

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3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

He's 100% correct. Pitt has about an 80% chance to score the TD there. Plus Reid is cramping. Terrible decision to kick even if they win.

80%?  I thought 3rd/4th and 1 was generally about 2/3rds successful.  I suppose Pitt vs Toledo should be higher than that though.

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2 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

And a 20% chance to lose the game, vs. pretty much guaranteed chance NOT to lose if you kick it.

And there's the 2-pointer one play later.

Yeah but it's 50/50 at the start of each OT.  If you think you have a >50% chance to get it you should go.

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