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Why the 12-team CFP is Perfect and the Problem is Megaconferences


Huckleberry

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2 minutes ago, WBT said:

Keep the byes for the conference champs.  Maybe eventually teams will get the hint and stop doing espn's bidding and de-superconference and look for greener pastures.

This is the way to fix the megaconference problem but the issue is of course that the conferences are making the decision and the smaller ones get run over every time because of the threat of a breakaway. The NCAA's refusal and/or inability to set up an FBS playoff made this the inevitable result. 

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22 minutes ago, satyanash said:

A non-conference champion getting a bye will immediately destroy the value of conference championship games.

If Boise State or (God forbid) ASU wins their matchup this discussion disappears.

Lol, it wont happen. And it doesnt destroy the value for ACC and Big 12 who will need those games to even get teams in the playoffs.  

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3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

This is the way to fix the megaconference problem but the issue is of course that the conferences are making the decision and the smaller ones get run over every time because of the threat of a breakaway. The NCAA's refusal and/or inability to set up an FBS playoff made this the inevitable result. 

Yeah I know.  It was idle daydreaming.

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10 minutes ago, WBT said:

Keep the byes for the conference champs.  Maybe eventually teams will get the hint and stop doing espn's bidding and de-superconference and look for greener pastures.

An ACC conference champ deserves no bye at all....look at their shit conference going 1-9 in bowls so far. Conferences aren't even in terms of quality and depth so that is why byes in CFB is a horrible idea.

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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5 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

There are 18 big 10 teams and all but 3 are shitty.  There could still be Indianas squeaking through even if they played 10 other teams.  The conference is just too big.   Also, playing 2 more conference games takes away $3 million in budget from G5 and FCS teams.  Many would drop sports.  Nobody here gives a shit about that, but it does pay for college for hundreds of kids a year.

Shit, 50 years ago, everyone was claiming that having to have women's sports would bankrupt those schools.

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On 12/29/2024 at 3:23 PM, Handcruser said:

Great post. I hate the mega conferences. I was actually wanting smaller conferences, but that doesn’t matter now.

One hope is that the Big 10 and SEC decide they are 1) too big; and 2) make more money together.  They add 8 schools and split into 3 14 team conferences.

Twelve is ideal, but fourteen is still manageable.  16 and 18 are just too big.

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5 hours ago, Js1 said:

There will be “in-depth discussions” about not guaranteeing conference champs the top 4

seeds in 2025, sources said. Top 5 conference champs still would get in playoff but rankings would determine seeds, sources said. This would require unanimous approval by all stake holders to change in 2025 but conference commissioners “open to getting (the seeding) right,” source said

There are two separate issues:

1) who gets the byes; and 

2) what seeds do they get.

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5 hours ago, 'stache said:

I think a bye is a good reward for conference champs and would be fine with reseeding them after the first round, which should be more accurately called the play-in round.

You don't even need to re-seed.

1. Oregon plays 12. Arizona St.

2. Georgia plays 9. Boise St.

3. Texas/Clemson plays 6. Ohio St./Tennessee

4. Penn St./SMU plays 5. ND/Indiana

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2 hours ago, Michael Knight said:

16 teams is too goddamn many, what you're proposing is having 2 teams guaranteed playing an extra half a seasons worth of games. There aren't 16 good teams a year. Fucking 12 is too many did anyone really need to see SMU Indiana Tennessee and Clemson get trounced? 8 teams no byes neutral sites thats it.

12 is fine.  But if you go to 14 or 16 you will get lots more 3 loss and occasionally a 4 loss team.

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2 minutes ago, bullet said:

12 is fine.  But if you go to 14 or 16 you will get lots more 3 loss and occasionally a 4 loss team.

And a lot more blowouts, which despite the media narrative, wasn't just the ACC schools and Indiana, but the SEC 3rd place team Tennessee as well. 

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If we do go to 16 with the SEC and B10 guaranteed half the slots (which seems inevitable) I like the idea I heard floated of the SEC ditching the CCG and instead having 3/6 and 4/5 play-in games for their final two spots. You give your best two teams a week off and most likely the  combined TV money from the two play-in games at least equals (if not exceeds) what they get now for the CCG….

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3 hours ago, 'stache said:

The part I'll never understand is why TV revenue isn't just distributed to schools based on appearances and rating. Install a floor if needed to prevent some schools from going into the red during down years but let Michigan, Texas, Alabama, etc. make a ton of money, and everyone else makes good money. USC shouldn't have to join a conference with Rutgers and Maryland to make more money, and Purdue shouldn't be making twice as much as KState, FSU, and Clemson. 

Because the bowls and the playoffs made their agreements with the conferences, not the individual schools.

 

And, once again, reseeding is STUPID!

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On 12/29/2024 at 1:50 PM, Huckleberry said:

tl;dr

The 12 team playoff is awesome. The problem is the consolidation into oversized conferences purely for money. If they had instituted the 12-team playoff 25 years ago the money would be absurd at this point and college football wouldn't have these stupid megaconferences. Get off my lawn.

At this point the conference genie isn't going back in the box. So I'd change it where week 2 of the season and week 4 are automatically reserved for the SEC and Big 10 playing both the Big 12 and ACC in  1v1, 2v2, 3v3, etc. matchups based on the previous season's finishes. 

It's not perfect, but it would at least match up the weaker conferences with the stronger ones for 2 games to give the committee more data to decide the final teams in and the slots. Then just do away with automatic bye for top 4 conference champions. 

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13 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Fuck byes...go to 16 teams, top 8 seeds host, higher seeds host the following round.


Using the CFP Rankings from week before CCGs.

Image

Assuming all the favorites win, the round of 8 would be:

1) Oregon v 😎 SMU

4) Notre Dame v 5) Georgia

3) Pedo v 6) Ohio St

2) Texas v 7) Tennessee

A little different than what we have now but not enough to warrant a complete overhual

 

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they just need to say P4 conf champ get a bid and G5 team has to be top 16 or something like that then seed 1-12 and be done. anything else really is just gonna cause problems.  If you are a conf champ and aren't top 4 well then you don't get a bye but you get in.

 

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Seed based on
1)9 conference games 2) CCG 3) OOC strength of schedule. 4)whatever polls/ rankings you want, if any

Until scheduling is standardized, this conversation is little more than Herbstreit eye test horseshit. More objectivity is better. 

Edited by Iceman
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I think there are a bunch of positive changes that can happen, but foremost I want to know what the actual criteria is.  What's important.

Just state the fucking rules instead of hiding behind nebulous shit.  Is it quality wins?  Quality losses?  What?

Oregon and Georgia are the clear #1 and #2 this year.

#3 was Texas at 11-2.  Conference runner up.  Texas had two "good losses", but beat 0 teams in the top 25 prior to the playoffs.

#4 was Penn State at 11-2.  Conference runner up.  Penn State had two "good losses", but had beat 1 team in the top 25 prior to the playoffs, #20 9-3 Illinois.

#5 was Notre Dame at 12-1.  No conference.  Notre Dame had one awful loss and had beat 1 team, #22 Army, in the top 25 prior to the playoffs.

#6 was Ohio State at 10-2.  They weren't in their CCG, had a "good loss" to Oregon and then a "bad loss" to Michigan.  They 2 top 25 teams, #4 Penn State and #8 Indiana.  Really strong wins.

#7 was Tennessee at 10-2.  They weren't in the CCG, had the @Georgia as a "good loss" but also a "bad loss" to Arkansas, and had 1 win over a top 25 team in #11 Alabama.

#8 was Indiana at 11-1.  They weren't in their CCG, had a "good loss" to Ohio State and had 0 wins against top 25 teams.

#9 was Boise State at 12-1.  They won their CCG, had a "good loss" to Oregon, and had top 25 wins against #24 UNLV twice.

#10 was SMU at 11-2.  Conference runner up.  They had two "good Losses" to #16 Clemson and #17 BYU.  They had 0 top 25 wins.

#11 was Alabama at 9-3.  They weren't in their CCG and had a "good loss" to Georgia, but two "bad losses" to Vandy and Oklahoma.  They had two top 25 wins against #2 Georgia and #19 Missouri.

#12 was Arizona State at 11-2.  They won their CCG and had two "bad losses" to Cincinnati and Texas Tech.  They won 2 top 25 games against #17 BYU and #18 Iowa State.

 

That's what the 12 would have been without autobids.  Here's the thing...  #12 had a pretty good argument for having better standing than #11, #0, #9, #8, #7, #4 and #3.  Not to say they're better, but #12 did more.

If quality wins matter.  It seems like they're rewarding quality losses more than anything else. 

What it comes down to is I want transparency.  Explain what matters.  It really seems like quality losses were more important than big wins.

 

 

Edited by wablty
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20 hours ago, 'stache said:

I think a bye is a good reward for conference champs and would be fine with reseeding them after the first round, which should be more accurately called the play-in round.

Awesome, let's give byes to Army, Jacksonville State, Ohio, and Marshall so they can feel good about themselves too.

image.jpeg.82f05acd119817a1c0a401a87bded4cb.jpeg

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20 hours ago, Dignan said:

Don't give the 1-4 seeds byes, just do a regular ol  1 v 12, 2 v 11, etc etc the first week.

 

20 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

And what do you do when there are 6 teams left after your first round? Byes after that round?

 

Don't be so quick to dismiss this. 12-team first round, no byes, three national champs. Everyone wins.

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23 hours ago, 'stache said:

The part I'll never understand is why TV revenue isn't just distributed to schools based on appearances and rating. Install a floor if needed to prevent some schools from going into the red during down years but let Michigan, Texas, Alabama, etc. make a ton of money, and everyone else makes good money. USC shouldn't have to join a conference with Rutgers and Maryland to make more money, and Purdue shouldn't be making twice as much as KState, FSU, and Clemson. 

It's because every conference has its own tv deal. All of the conferences would have to be tied to a functional organization that negotiates a single tv deal for that to ever happen.

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