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What teams will use NIL to become the "new" top athletic programs in the years to come?


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13 hours ago, cmontexas said:

You could pay the entire starting lineup a million each, and all the backups a half million for the salary of 1 player

Then Title IX?

But anyhow, it's stil math.

NBA splits $7B in TV, plus 41 home games, plus merch... Across 30 teams of 15.

NBA makes A LOT of money across small orgs.

SEC splits $3B from ABC across 14 teams of 85.

Also, not everyone in the NBA makes $60M.

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2 hours ago, Slacks said:

Then Title IX?

But anyhow, it's stil math.

NBA splits $7B in TV, plus 41 home games, plus merch... Across 30 teams of 15.

NBA makes A LOT of money across small orgs.

SEC splits $3B from ABC across 14 teams of 85.

Also, not everyone in the NBA makes $60M.

But everyone does make at least a million

The minimum NBA salary during the 2024-25 season depends based on that player's experience. For a player with no years of experience, the salary is $1,157,153, and it increases from there based on the years of service in the league.

https://www.si.com/nba/what-minimum-nba-salary-2024-25

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16 hours ago, immamac said:

Federal Law 

It's not federal statutory law.  First, it's a payment from schools to player for past use of NIL and related antitrust violations.  Then, as part of the settlement, schools are sharing revenue, up to 22%, with student-athletes. https://www.npr.org/2024/05/24/nx-s1-4978680/house-ncaa-settlement-pay-college-athletes

It's not NIL per se.

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3 hours ago, Thatguy said:

Yes they do. My high school center is SMU alum and keeps me informed on the inner workings. They appear to be throwing it around quite a bit.

SMU has a fanatical and wealthy fanbase that has historically, and, surprisingly currently (you'd have thought death penalty and subsequent program/fan malaise would have killed that off) very supportive of the school and its sports.

Just as in the 70s and 80s, they are going to compete on a monetary basis with just about anyone.

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22 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

It's not federal statutory law.  First, it's a payment from schools to player for past use of NIL and related antitrust violations.  Then, as part of the settlement, schools are sharing revenue, up to 22%, with student-athletes. https://www.npr.org/2024/05/24/nx-s1-4978680/house-ncaa-settlement-pay-college-athletes

It's not NIL per se.

It's a court settlement that hasn't even been approved yet. With more lawsuits in the works. 

State legislated NIL rules don't supercede federal law or federal court settlements, but in their absence they do. And there's a lot of absence. What they do do is supercede NCAA regulations. At least until a lawsuit is filed and it's deemed otherwise.

The only legislative body that can create any real stability is the US congress. So far there's been no appetite in the current political climate for congress and the president to wade into college athletics. Maybe that changes, although it's difficult to see how. Until then we'll veer wildly from one court case to another, with no real enforcement mechanism other than bringing another lawsuit. There have been some enforcement mechanisms proposed with the upcoming settlement approval, but I haven't seen anything to make me think they'll be at all effective. If you don't have effective enforcement, you don't really have a rule. 

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How much in NIL money is from alumni/schools and how much is from major local/regional/national businesses who actually want the name, image and likeness of players for marketing purposes and are expecting a return on that?

I would think the latter could eventually dwarf the former.  I mean, Austin will never have pro football, basketball or baseball.  The pro spots franchises in Dallas, Houston and San Antonio won't allow it.  Longhorn football will always be the biggest sports franchise in whats the 11th biggest city in the U.S.  The name, image and likeness of the same player in Austin is potentially worth a lot more than the same player in Tuscaloosa.  Not to mention the alumni fold into the population of all the other major cities in Texas makes the NIL valuable there, too.

I am not sure there is a university better set up for NIL success than Texas.  Some teams that I think would be poised to do well would be Oregon, Miami, USC, Georgia, Michigan.  But I don't think any of them have a better combination of advantages than Texas has.

 

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41 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

It's a court settlement that hasn't even been approved yet. With more lawsuits in the works. 

State legislated NIL rules don't supercede federal law or federal court settlements, but in their absence they do. And there's a lot of absence. What they do do is supercede NCAA regulations. At least until a lawsuit is filed and it's deemed otherwise.

The only legislative body that can create any real stability is the US congress. So far there's been no appetite in the current political climate for congress and the president to wade into college athletics. Maybe that changes, although it's difficult to see how. Until then we'll veer wildly from one court case to another, with no real enforcement mechanism other than bringing another lawsuit. There have been some enforcement mechanisms proposed with the upcoming settlement approval, but I haven't seen anything to make me think they'll be at all effective. If you don't have effective enforcement, you don't really have a rule. 

It's not really a matter of superseding.  The NCAA and its constituent institutions  been found liable for an antitrust violation in the form of colluding with rules that prevented athletes from profiting from their own NIL.  NIL is but one of the potential revenue sources that the NCAA deprived student athletes of profiting from.  It was a convenient one because it was relatively easily tied to individual student athletes.

But giving student athletes the right to harvest their own NIL revenue doesn't solve the entire problem, which is that the NCAAs "amateurism" rules prevented athletes from sharing revenue for which they/their labor was undoubtedly responsible. However, unlike NIL, quantifying the athlete's proper share of any such revenue, either on a collective or individual basis, is quite difficult.

Thus, we have this proposed settlement, which, apart and aside from any NIL revenue the athletes can generate "on their own," somewhat arbitrarily sets their share of revenue at 22%.  And I think part of the settlement is a de facto antitrust exemption:  that the amateurism rules have been abolished, there's now a revenue-sharing framework in place, and there will be no further antitrust suits.

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33 minutes ago, Goredho said:

How much in NIL money is from alumni/schools and how much is from major local/regional/national businesses who actually want the name, image and likeness of players for marketing purposes and are expecting a return on that?

I would think the latter could eventually dwarf the former.  I mean, Austin will never have pro football, basketball or baseball.  The pro spots franchises in Dallas, Houston and San Antonio won't allow it.  Longhorn football will always be the biggest sports franchise in whats the 11th biggest city in the U.S.  The name, image and likeness of the same player in Austin is potentially worth a lot more than the same player in Tuscaloosa.  Not to mention the alumni fold into the population of all the other major cities in Texas makes the NIL valuable there, too.

I am not sure there is a university better set up for NIL success than Texas.  Some teams that I think would be poised to do well would be Oregon, Miami, USC, Georgia, Michigan.  But I don't think any of them have a better combination of advantages than Texas has.

 

Yeah, I don't know shit about fuck, but it does seem that having local-ish businesses willing to lease Ferraris and Lambos and whatnot is a key component to all of this.  And that places some of the more ruralish schools in ruralish states at a disadvantage.

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14 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah, I don't know shit about fuck, but it does seem that having local-ish businesses willing to lease Ferraris and Lambos and whatnot is a key component to all of this.  And that places some of the more ruralish schools in ruralish states at a disadvantage.

Give 20 year old me a lambo bill boarded up with Dell, Amazon, IBM and St David’s logos like a nascar ride and I would have represented like a mother fucker around town.

 

Edited by Goredho
Cyber truck ftw
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Austin is a huge advantage. Athens, GA has a lot of similarities on a much smaller scale. The closest thing to Austin would be Madison, WI and it’s not that close: 650k metro population. Of course expectations for WI football are much lower than at Texas so that setup could produce relative success in Madison. Champaign-Urbana, IL is a mini Madison. Those are also regions where football is a pretty big deal. 

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13 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Austin is a huge advantage. Athens, GA has a lot of similarities on a much smaller scale. The closest thing to Austin would be Madison, WI and it’s not that close: 650k metro population. Of course expectations for WI football are much lower than at Texas so that setup could produce relative success in Madison. Champaign-Urbana, IL is a mini Madison. Those are also regions where football is a pretty big deal. 

Thinking Rutgers could be an NIL monster.  'Come to NYC!'

Yes I know Camden is 2 hours away.

Edited by TOR
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1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

Austin is a huge advantage. Athens, GA has a lot of similarities on a much smaller scale. The closest thing to Austin would be Madison, WI and it’s not that close: 650k metro population. Of course expectations for WI football are much lower than at Texas so that setup could produce relative success in Madison. Champaign-Urbana, IL is a mini Madison. Those are also regions where football is a pretty big deal. 

Columbus, Ohio is the closest thing to Austin.

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21 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Columbus, Ohio is the closest thing to Austin.

On population numbers and regional economy, you are correct. I just never saw Columbus as an innovation leader comparable to the cities I mentioned.  Illinois has spun off a lot of software and IT. Wisconsin did the same with health care and IT.  Athens has strong biotech and pharma for a small city, plus cultural contributions. In the NIL era, I think schools need entrepreneur boosters or a large base of moderately rich alumni. I’m seeing potential entrepreneurial wealth in Athens, Madison and Champaign. Not so much in Columbus. OSU can pursue the later path but so can many others. 

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1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

Austin is a huge advantage. Athens, GA has a lot of similarities on a much smaller scale. The closest thing to Austin would be Madison, WI and it’s not that close: 650k metro population. Of course expectations for WI football are much lower than at Texas so that setup could produce relative success in Madison. Champaign-Urbana, IL is a mini Madison. Those are also regions where football is a pretty big deal. 

It's a very specific aspect but Nashville, thereby, Vanderbilt is an interesting topic. 700k pop, 21st US, 4th most largest South Eastern US. There is a lot of money in grad population and the tie in to VUMC increases it. Sort of like a Duke or UNC but with less inner city completion (UNC, Duke, NCSU) and a huge influx of business similar to Raleigh. Tons of sports support with Titans, Preds and minor leage baseball. I don't think the influx of North Eastern and CA companies and people would ever latch onto the local college team like many have the local NFL and MHL teams. However, if they did it could really turn the tides of the landscape of the SEC. They're is absolutely the love of sports in Nashville. 

I'm just spitballing on curious/potential up and comers because you talked a bit about them too. Sorry if I derailed the thread.

Edited by BurntEyes
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Nashville has a lot to recommend it. Vandy does have to split the sports money and fan support with a pretty full slate of pro teams. I see Vandy’s position as similar to SMU: big sports town with pro franchises, private school with money and local support base. The big difference is competition level. There are 3 teams in the ACC that SMU has to look out for. Vandy has 3 current elite programs and 5 more with historical strength or tons of money: Tennessee, Florida, LSU, OU and aggy (one in their home state). 

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NIL has resulted in serious money for top players. I suspect that one result will be a breakdown in regional recruiting for those players. Playing close to home is a minor consideration when millions are in play. Players will relocate for $$$.

The SEC has had a historic advantage from sitting on top of the biggest recruiting ground for top college athletes. Most historically successful programs are located on or adjacent to major recruit pools. Geographic mobility will blunt that advantage in the future and virtually erase it at the top of the talent pool.

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