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Kane and Vardy? Henderson and Dier? Pairings not appealing to Southgate

England's World Cup masterplan under Gareth Southgate is taking shape, which means Jordan Henderson and Jamie Vardy may struggle to start.

Published
6 June 2018

Gareth Southgate only plans on deploying one of Eric Dier or Jordan Henderson as a holding midfielder for England at the World Cup, while a strike pairing of captain Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy is also unlikely.

Vardy and Henderson are set to line-up against Costa Rica when England play their final pre-tournament friendly at Elland Road on Thursday.

But Liverpool skipper Henderson, who was in contention for the captaincy alongside Dier and Kane, could find himself as the odd man out as Southgate settles on the 3-1-4-2 formation that has taken shape since the March friendlies against Netherlands and Italy.

"I think we will only want to play with one pivot," said Southgate, whose youthful squad have Group G games against Tunisia, Panama and Belgium to negotiate after they land in Russia next week.

"Henderson can play as a number eight, so that gives you an option; Dier can play as a centre-back. So they both have another way into the team.

"No, [they haven't played in those positions under me] because most of Henderson’s games we played with a two and played them together but that's not an unrealistic possibility for Henderson to play as an eight.

"He played a lot more advanced for most of his career. I am not sure Liverpool had many options as a pivot so he ended up doing that role."

Henderson and Dier form part of the squad's leadership group alongside Kane, Manchester United full-back Ashley Young and Manchester City midfielder Fabian Delph, but Southgate will not allow seniority to give a pass into his side where a smoothly functioning system is increasingly paramount.

"It is a key decision, but that's management isn’t it?" he said. "You either select players or you choose your system and pick the best people to fit into it.

"They're the tough calls. I'd be amazed if the two of them aren't important figures during the tournament for us, but there is clearly the possibility they might not both play in every match."

Sterling's new central role off the centre-forward could feasibly open up the possibility of Vardy partnering Kane, whose spot as number-one striker is locked in.

However, even a stellar showing from the Leicester City favourite in Leeds would probably fall short in terms of sealing a starting spot against Tunisia, with Southgate keen on variety in his forward line.

"We've looked at that at times in training. At the moment we've not gone with it," the England boss said of a Kane and Vardy link-up.

"We chose to link Harry with Raheem – we liked the look of that. There's no reason that those two couldn't play together.

"That would be different, though, because Vardy's strength is running behind teams and less coming short. You'd be asking Harry to come and link a bit more. Maybe there's moments in games where that's the threat that's needed."

Southgate added: "We always need a link. What I liked about Saturday [a 2-1 win over Nigeria] was Sterling dropped deep and [Dele] Alli ran past him, Kane dropped deep and [Jesse] Lingard ran past him.

"There was fluidity of movement. I don't see many teams where two just stand up there."

Stoke City's Jack Butland will start in goal against Costa Rica, while Liverpool teenager Trent Alexander-Arnold will be handed a debut at some stage.

A final chance for Southgate's squad to press their claims will come in an 11 v 11 training ground match on Monday, slated to run for 35 to 40 minutes at St George's Park.

"I probably made that a bigger thing because we've only got two [pre-World Cup] friendlies, but it won't be 'possibles v probables'," Southgate explained. "We'll look at different things within that [game] as we do every day."

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At least this time nobody has fallen into the trap of thinking England might actually win the damn thing. Nobody inside the England camp has proclaimed they are going to Russia to bring the trophy back home. And perhaps just as important, nobody in the media is feverishly backing our boys to do it. Not yet, anyway.

Instead, the mood seems restrained compared to previous tournaments, as if the penny has dropped that England have not done a great deal in the World Cup since the year – the one between 1965 and 1967 – that Jürgen Klopp has suggested we no longer mention because of the pressure it puts on the team.

Sensible advice bearing in mind England’s footballers have managed a grand total of six wins in the knockout stages of major international tournaments since, well, That Year Again. The last one was 12 years ago, against Ecuador, and if all this sounds downbeat it’s difficult, in fairness, to be a cheerleader when the most recent memory of England in a major tournament is Iceland’s Viking thunderclap, Harry Kane’s corner-taking and the mutinous chants of “You’re not fit to wear the shirt” from Euro 2016.

Roy Hodgson’s reign as England manager ended within minutes of that defeat to Iceland and he spent the night in a corner of the bar of the team’s hotel in Chantilly, with nobody else around and the lights off. The next day, when he was persuaded to speak to the media, the top three buttons of his shirt were undone, his hands were trembling and his fingernails were bitten to the quick.

Alternatively, there’s the memory of Steven Gerrard at the 2014 World Cup, when England were eliminated inside a week and left Brazil before the players had even finished their course of anti-malaria tablets. Gerrard hadn’t slept much either. He was “hurting bad, broken”. England’s captain sat silently – dark smudges under his eyes, a week’s worth of stubble – staring into the distance as Hodgson talked about a “period of grieving”.

Let’s not be too negative, though. England have some talented players, and indeed a sprinkling of excellent ones, and at the time of writing nobody has been struck down by the curse of the metatarsal just yet. Yes, Gareth Southgate’s team have been drawn against Belgium, third in Fifa’s world rankings, but there are more obliging games, against Panama and Tunisia, first. If those can be won, England will already be assured of a place in the knockout stages before they meet Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard et al.

Nothing can be taken for granted, of course, given the ordeal against Iceland nudges out the defeat to the USA in the 1950 World Cup as the most mortifying result in England’s history. Likewise, it does not feel too long ago since the Sun splashed with an “E-A-S-Y” front‑page headline after the 2010 World Cup draw to let us know it would be England against Algeria, Slovenia and – to make it work – the Yanks. England stank out that tournament, too.

It does help, though, that expectations this time are more realistic. Kyle Walker has said England will need a “miracle” to get their hands on the trophy in Moscow and it puts things into context to imagine the runaround Southgate’s team would likely be given by a France XI made up of players Les Bleus have left out.

When Southgate named his squad the only controversies were the absence of Jack Wilshere and Jonjo Shelvey. Didier Deschamps, the France manager, has omitted Alexandre Lacazette, Anthony Martial and Karim Benzema, not to mention Dimitri Payet, Aymeric Laporte, Kingsley Coman and others who would be mandatory picks for most other teams.

France will take some beating but so will Brazil, Germany and all the other usual suspects. Otherwise, there will be two players in particular who are determined to make a lasting impression. Lionel Messi will be 35 when the World Cup is held in Qatar in 2022. Cristiano Ronaldo will be 37. Between them, they have won the Ballon d’Or 10 times. Yet, realistically, this will be the last opportunity these two modern greats get to make a decisive impact on this stage.

Can one of these two showmen be remembered for Russia 2018 in the same way that Diego Maradona is for Mexico 1986, Pelé in 1970 and so on? Messi was named the best player of the last World Cup. It felt generous at the time and, harsh as it may sound, the fact is we are still waiting for a truly Messi-inspired tournament.

As for England, it does not feel too outlandish to imagine Southgate’s team navigating a route to the quarter-finals. The problem is that Brazil or Germany could be waiting and that is usually the point when we are reminded, as John Cleese once put it, that the nation that invented the sport has barely seen a penny in royalties ever since.

All of which means it is probably not such a bad thing that the English football public is hardened to disappointment. Serial disappointments, indeed. Two more of these tournaments, on the back of this one, and the chances are it will be 30 years since “30 years of hurt” became part of the soundtrack.

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https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/jun/14/henderson-maguire-young-england-world-cup-tunisia-dier

Henderson, Maguire and Young in pole position for England’s World Cup opener

• Southgate set to sacrifice Dier against Tunisia
• No place for Rashford in preferred 3-3-2-2 formation

(i thought it was a 3-4-2-1...)

Gareth Southgate’s provisional plans for England’s opening match of the World Cup can be revealed, with Harry Maguire favoured over Gary Cahill in the proposed starting XI, no place for Eric Dier in midfield and Ashley Young beating Danny Rose to the left wing‑back role.

Southgate has set up his team in training to operate with Jordan Henderson as the holding midfielder, which would mean Dier being restricted to a place on the substitutes’ bench in Monday’s game against Tunisia in Volgograd. Young has been awarded a place in Southgate’s provisional lineup and, barring a late change, Maguire has been preferred to Cahill in one of several borderline calls, despite the Chelsea captain’s improved recent form.

Cahill was one of Chelsea’s more impressive players in their FA Cup final victory against Manchester United and followed that up with the man-of-the-match award in England’s warm-up game against Nigeria at Wembley. However, Southgate has been using Maguire in training to the left of John Stones and Kyle Walker in a central defence made up of three Yorkshiremen. Cahill, in turn, has lined up with Southgate’s back-up players when the first-team bibs have been handed out.

As expected, England will play in a 3-3-2-2 system that will have Raheem Sterling operating centrally alongside Harry Kane in attack and be heavily reliant, in the absence of orthodox wingers, on Young and Kieran Trippier breaking forward as attacking wing-backs. Dele Alli and Jesse Lingard have been chosen to play as England’s advanced midfielders and Marcus Rashford will be a substitute even if the Manchester United forward is fit, as expected, after the knee injury that has stopped him training since the squad arrived here, outside St Petersburg, on Tuesday.

That means Southgate is working on a side that will have nine players making their World Cup debuts, with only Sterling and Henderson out of the likely starting XI having been involved under Roy Hodgson in Brazil four years ago. Even without Rose or Dier, Southgate’s team would have a strong Tottenham flavour, with Kane, Trippier and Alli representing the team from White Hart Lane, but the proposed England side will not feature a player from any of the other London clubs.

Southgate and his players have Friday and Saturday by the Baltic Sea to finalise their plans before flying to Volgograd to start acclimatising to the hotter weather. The manager has already shown he is not afraid to place his trust in inexperienced players and, if he keeps to his training-ground plans, that will manifest itself again in his team for England’s opening assignment in Group G.

Maguire, for instance, is a relative newcomer to the side, with only five caps but the Leicester centre-half is one of Southgate’s favourites because of his ability to play out from the back. Maguire’s emergence is one of the reasons why Southgate decided Chris Smalling could be cast aside and, barring any late twists, the former Hull player is in line to start ahead of Cahill, a player with 60 caps over an eight-year international career.

Jordan Pickford’s status as England’s first-choice goalkeeper will be confirmed in the Volgograd Arena and Southgate has chosen Alli and Lingard because the manager believes they carry more of a threat to the opposition than Ruben Loftus-Cheek or Fabian Delph.

Although the two understudies played impressively in the 2-0 win against Costa Rica in Leeds last Thursday, Southgate wants players in that position who will make it their business to get into the opposition penalty area and, if necessary, run beyond the strikers. On that front Alli and Lingard are viewed as superior in a system designed, by Southgate’s own admission, to compensate for the fact that England do not have a natural playmaker in midfield.

Instead the emphasis will be on Lingard and Alli to provide close support to the front two by playing between the lines. “It’s the position between their midfield and their defenders where it is hard for their defenders to pick you up,” Lingard, one of those making his first appearance in a major tournament, said. “But it is also playing behind the midfielder, who is always on the half-turn and that makes it hard for him to pick you up. It is always something I have done from a young age. I had to keep out of the battles and the tackles [because of size], so to play between the lines and in space, that was where I was most dangerous.”

The emphasis will be on playing with speed and energy, with Young and Trippier encouraged to advance in the wide positions, Sterling and Kane dovetailing in attack and Alli and Lingard given the freedom to break forward. Henderson will have to sit back if, as now seems likely, he is selected as the deepest-lying midfielder. Dier has been a regular for England, captaining the side three times in the last eight months, but the system means there is space for only one player to operate as what Southgate describes as “the pivot”.

Above all Southgate has emphasised the need for England’s players to relax after all those years when they appear to have been “weighed down” – to use Fabio Capello’s description – by the national team’s shirt.

“You’ve just got to enjoy it, embrace the moment,” Lingard said. “You are with your team-mates playing football and it is a job you love doing. Southgate has come in with the mentality that, if we play with freedom, play without fear, we will enjoy our time more. So that is what we are going to do – enjoy our football, play with no fear and play exciting football at the same time.”

England’s provisional starting XI (3-3-2-2): Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire; Trippier, Henderson, Young; Lingard, Alli; Sterling, Kane.

 

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2018/06/08/world-cup-2018-tactics-englands-experimental-phase-gareth-southgate/

World Cup 2018 tactics: England's experimental phase and how Gareth Southgate can bring football home

JJ Bull

12 June 2018 • 11:39am

Let's just get one thing straight: England are average. Amid the buildup, the World Cup warm-up friendlies and attempted sabotage, it almost feels like there's some sort of acceptance that football will not be coming home. It would be nice... but nobody really thinks it.

The usual English optimism that hops onboard the runaway hype-train, routinely derailed by pressure and a lack of ability, has been replaced by realism and a little bit of intrigue. Gareth Southgate is doing things differently, professionally and it's entertaining to watch - and not in a hide-behind-eyes reality TV sort of way.

The Golden Generation is gone, now is the era of medium - so what tactics will England use to approach a tournament they are - finally - not really expected to do an awful lot in?

Southgate's modern methods

England's big problem is a serious lack of quality central midfielders. Jordan Henderson's shortcomings were exposed in Liverpool's Champions League final defeat to Real Madrid, with Toni Kroos and Luka Modric showcasing exactly how good you really need to be to control the midfield.

Without players who can really keep the ball under pressure or create from deep positions, Southgate has found a way to effectively bypass that part of the pitch. 

In a fluid 3-3-2-2, with four attacking players in central areas and width from the wing-backs, England did a number on Nigeria in the first half of their 2-1 friendly win.

Dele Alli and Jesse Lingard attacked from deep positions, making runs into space created by Raheem Sterling or Harry Kane dropping deep and Eric Dier played as an anchor, protecting the back three and pinging long passes forward when one of the strikers found room to move into.

The high press

Southgate has welcomed the effect Mauricio Pochettino has had on several of his players, pointing out that those who played for him at Southampton and Spurs had really improved.

"We noticed a definite difference that allowed them to play the pressing game they want to play," he said in September. "There was a definite impact on all the Spurs players from their club training".

The biggest difference is in how England press, with Southgate looking to win the ball ahead of the halfway line rather than sit deep and absorb pressure. 

With Alli, Sterling, Kane and Lingard all big fans of winning the ball and counter-attacking quickly, it means England aren't forced into a midfield battle they are likely to lose and instead pose a threat higher up the pitch

If the opposition do bypass the high press, everyone drops back into a 5-3-2.

The worry for Southgate will be that even in this defensive shape, England looked nervous at the back and had a few anxious moments as John Stones, Kyle Walker and Gary Cahill all panicked and swiped at the ball to get the thing away.

These players - usually so composed at the back for their club - seem to feel the weight of the shirt at international level and make rushed decisions. Southgate wants to play out from the back too and John Stones made a couple of horrible passes which gifted a turnover in possession in England's half. That dress rehearsal should be welcome practice.

No amount of defensive coaching can really prepare for England for the nerves of a big World Cup match and opponents will know that there are chances to be had, especially from second balls, if crosses are put into the box.

The importance of the wing-backs

Another clever little bit of problem solving from Southgate has been addressing the lack of a left-winger - that other English tradition. Wing-backs are the solution and having them has ensured that central attacking midfielders like Alli, Sterling and Lingard can play in the same team without being shunted out into ineffective positions.

If Nigeria had the ball on the right, Ashley Young pushed high up the left side of the pitch, if Nigeria were on the left, Kieran Trippier pushed forward.

In possession, the player opposite the side the ball is on pushes high and wide to offer a switched pass.

The shape becomes a 3-1-4-2 at times as the wing-backs join in attacks, stretching the pitch and opening up space for the central midfielders to run into or pass into.

And because they are wing-backs rather than wingers, Young and Trippier must hold slightly deeper positions, meaning they are usually in place to either receive a switched pass, free to attack space at the back post or simply act as a means of stretching the pitch.

During attacks in the final third, this means England have a heap of different runners all moving into similar positions - something incredibly difficult to defend against. Here's an example of the different runs England made during a dangerous attack against Nigeria. Young is the player free on the left.

The importance of movement

England comfortably won their qualifying group and in Kane and Walker, have two of the better players at the World Cup on their side. Sterling's finishing continues to concern though his movement, pace and ability to play quick one-twos with someone like Alli or Lingard means even if he doesn't convert every chance he gets, he will create and have some opportunities to test the goalkeeper.

The movement of players in midfield is absolutely key to the success of Southgate's tactical setup and it is interesting that once Nigeria matched their 3-5-2 shape, suddenly England looked devoid of inspiration and creativity. Southgate needs a Plan B and for his players to suss out their opponents quickly to problem solve on the pitch - the best teams do it instinctively. 

There are goals in this team and the shape has brought balance to it. If the players can keep their heads when things go against them, stay composed in defence and adapt to their opponents as and when they need to, this World Cup might not go so badly after all. 

No matter the system, the numbers, the strategy - if the players aren't good enough, they won't win. England are somewhere in the middle but under Southgate's management, definitely looking up.

+++++

i disagree with half of this and i hope i'm wrong.  england should build the side around the 4 most dynamic attacking players they have and RUN RUN RUN and then run some more.   attack, and continue to attack, and find the right defense in group play that can support an all-out assault.   None of the big names have any fear of England anymore.  Just getting out of group is not good enough for England.  They either need to get going or get lost.

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2018/06/17/england-vs-tunisia-world-cup-2018-time-kick-off-tomorrow-tv/

Tunisia

Tunisia have suffered the worst blow of all 32 teams to date, losing their playmaker Youssef Msakni, who suffered a cruciate knee ligament injury on April 7 that will keep him out for at least six months. The attacking midfielder, who has 49 caps, tore an anterior ligament playing for his Qatar Stars League club, Al-Duhail, against Al-Sailiya.

When Nabil Maloul, Tunisia's manager, was asked in March what Msakni's absence would mean when the player could not feature in the spring friendlies because of a minor meniscus problem that required 10 days' rest, he said it would be like Argentina going to Russia without Lionel Messi.

Here is Tunisia's 23-man squad:

Goalkeepers: Farouk Ben Mustapha (Al Shabab, Saudi Arabia), Moez Hassen (Chateauroux, France), Aymen Mathlouthi (Al Baten, Saudi Arabia)

Defenders: Rami Bedoui (Etoile du Sahel), Yohan Benalouane (Leicester City, England), Syam Ben Youssef (Kasimpasa, Turkey), Dylan Bronn (Gent, Belgium), Oussama Haddadi (Dijon, France), Ali Maaloul (Al Ahly, Egypt), Yassine Meriah (CS Sfaxien), Hamdi Nagguez (Zamalek, Egypt)

Midfielders: Anice Badri (Esperance), Mohamed Amine Ben Amor (Al Ahli Riyadh, Saudi Arabia), Ghaylene Chaalali (Esperance), Ahmed Khalil (Club Africain), Saifeddine Khaoui (Troyes, France), Ferjani Sassi (Al Nasr, Saudi Arabia), Ellyes Skhiri (Montpellier, France), Naim Sliti (Dijon, France), Bassem Srarfi (Nice, France)

Forwards: Fakhreddine Ben Youssef (Al Ittifaq, Saudi Arabia), Saber Khalifa (Club Africain), Wahbi Khazri (Rennes, France)

What do we know about the Tunisia line-up?

With Youssef Msakni sidelined, Tunisia will be fielding a team at the World Cup that includes several foreign-born players, mainly from France.

Indeed, Tunisia's squad is a mix of players mainly from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, France and domestic leagues.

Here's a closer look at the Tunisia team:

Coach

A former assistant under Roger Lemerre when Tunisia won the African Cup of Nations in 2002, Maaloul took over from Henri Kasperczak two matches into World Cup qualifying for his second spell as coach after a brief tenure in 2013.

Maaloul played for Tunisia for a decade from 1985-95. One of very few African coaches in charge of a national team, he has transformed Tunisia from a fairly dour, defensive outfit to one more willing to attack since he took over after the African Cup of Nations in early 2017.

He needs to ensure the decision to bring in new players at the expense of some of the men who got Tunisia to the World Cup doesn't upset the team balance or alienate squad members.

Goalkeepers

Maaloul's biggest decision may be the first name on the sheet after saying he has yet to decide.

Aymen Mathlouthi, who is beginning to show frailties at 33 and after 11 years in the team, can no longer be certain of his starting spot.

Maaloul must figure out whether to drop the captain and sacrifice experience for 28-year-old Farouk Ben Mustapha, who has been highly-praised in the Saudi league.

Defenders

Maaloul said he was leaning toward starting the World Cup with the formation used in friendly wins over Iran and Costa Rica in March. That would see 22-year-old French-born Ellyes Skhiri, who made his debut against Iran after a late call-up, start in central defence.

Other contenders are 24-year-old home-based player Yassine Meriah, the experienced Syam Ben Youssef and Mohamed Amine Ben Amor.

If it's a four-man back line, expect to see right-back Dylan Bronn, another French-born newcomer. Ali Maaloul has been a regular on the left. Both can also operate as wingers in a five-man midfield if Tunisia goes with a three-man defence of big, strong center-backs.

Midfielders

The challenge of filling the void left by Msakni will likely fall on France-born attacking midfielder Wahbi Khazri. He played for the Tunisia and France youth teams before committing to Tunisia.

Khazri was partnered in the center of midfield by Anice Badri in Tunisia's last match - forming a potent attacking threat.

They are all versatile, operating as attacking midfielders or in a more advanced position in the forward line. Saif-Eddine Khaoui is a similar attack-minded midfielder who has forced himself into the team's plans.

Ferjani Sassi has the role of shoring up the middle of the field as the holding midfielder.

Forwards

Depending on whether Khazri, Badri, Sliti and newcomer Khaoui are deployed, there may be room for one or perhaps no out-and-out strikers.

Ahmed Akaichi and Taha Yassine Khenissi have experience of operating alone up front but recent formations could mean Tunisia's forward line will be based on the versatility of the four attacking midfielders.

What are they saying?

Jesse Lingard:

"Southgate has come in with the mentality to play with freedom, play without fear, and you will enjoy your time more," Lingard said.

"So, as a group of players, that is what we are going to do - enjoy our football, play with no fear and play exciting football at the same time.

"Of course, we want to go all the way to the final, but we are going to take each game as it comes and prepare for each game as we normally do."

Tunisia coach Nabil Maaloul: 

"For me the best team are Belgium, they are the group favourites. They have a lot of players who play in England and they are currently playing really well for a lot of clubs in England, so they are favourites and second place is between Tunisia and England. I hope it won't be the same scenario as in 1998."

What are the odds?

England to win 1/3

Draw 4/1

Tunisia to win 8/1

What's our prediction?

England finished bottom of their group at the last World Cup in Brazil and suffered a humiliating defeat by Iceland in the last-16 at Euro 2016. However, without wishing to tempt face, they could not have asked for an easier start to the tournament this time and should expect to win comfortably.

Predicted score: England 2 Tunisia 0.

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Tunisia should offer the same resistance as the Sauds and Nigeria...  even without a maximum lineup, any kind of struggle for england would be a disaster in a tournament where all the big names (except the iberians) have opened poorly, and where the brackets could fall with england on the easy side of a clear path to the semis.

England better win convincingly 3-0 +.

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If Tunisia score first it’s going to be tough.  Similar to the other group matches like Iceland, Switzerland’s, Mexico etc. Tunisia will look to defend deep and look for the counter.  I’m predicting 1-1 and England will need to wait until the Pathetic Shark shows up in Nizhy for their first win of the tournament 

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2 hours ago, Pathetic Shark said:

If Tunisia score first it’s going to be tough.  Similar to the other group matches like Iceland, Switzerland’s, Mexico etc. Tunisia will look to defend deep and look for the counter.  I’m predicting 1-1 and England will need to wait until the Pathetic Shark shows up in Nizhy for their first win of the tournament 

you should have been "Left Shark".... no one here has that yet.

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Jun. 18, 2018, at 8:12 AM

Can This New Crop Of Players Erase England’s Underachieving Past?

By Bobby Gardiner

There is an uncharacteristic air of hope this year surrounding an uncharacteristic England team. To be an England supporter is to inherit a contradictory combination of utter nihilism and raging anger, expecting nothing and everything at the same time. English players have developed an unfortunate reputation: They will wilt under the brightest lights, typified by the inability to hold their nerve during penalty shootouts.

But the perception of mental weakness between generations is, to some extent, a consequence of the spread-out nature of international tournaments. The World Cup is rare and unpredictable: Germany, the defending champion, had just a 13 percent chance of winning in Russia going into the tournament, according to FiveThirtyEight’s model, and even Brazil, the favorite, had less than a 20 percent chance.

Using pre-tournament Elo ratings going back to 1930, we can construct a logistic regression to look at how many World Cup trophies each country might have expected based on team strength, the competition format and whether the country was hosting.

Brazil, Germany and Italy have roughly a pair of trophies each more than the model’s predictions based on their strength before the tournament, which illustrates that the World Cup is hardly a tale of who the favorite is going in.

England has underachieved, winning a solitary trophy relative to 1.62 expected World Cups. By our measure, only Hungary, which was one of the world’s best in the 1950s, and the three-time runner-up Netherlands have seen a bigger discrepancy. English supporters born after 1966 are justified in feeling a tad underwhelmed by the team’s performances on the world stage, but it could be worse — of the underachievers, England is the only team to actually have managed a win at all.

England should have more trophies

Top five under- and overachievers by actual World Cups won vs. expected

Cups won

UnderachieversExpectedActualDifference

1Hungary0.920-0.92

2Netherlands0.670-0.67

3England1.621-0.62

4Russia0.600-0.60

5Mexico0.520-0.52

Cups won

OverachieversExpectedActualDifference

1Brazil3.015+1.99

2Germany2.044+1.96

3Italy2.144+1.86

4Uruguay0.832+1.17

5Argentina1.442+0.56

Based on a logistic regression that uses each team’s pre-World Cup ELO rating, accounting for host country and size of field. Germany’s history includes West Germany, while Russia’s includes the Soviet Union.

Source: EloRATINGS.NET

Nonetheless, the team that will face Tunisia on Monday is new and exciting. Gone are the mainstays from the past three World Cups, players like Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard. Because of the players’ age and inexperience, this team is free of the weight of expectation — despite having the seventh best pre-tournament chance of taking the trophy home, according to FiveThirtyEight predictions. And for the neutral fan, too, England has a lot to offer.

Tactical coherence

Pep Guardiola — the current manager of Manchester City, which became the first team in history to break the 100-point mark in the Premier League — has had an indirect hand in the past two World Cup-winning teams. In the final against the Netherlands in 2010, eight players featured on the pitch for Spain had been coached by Guardiola in his time at Barcelona. When Mario Götze broke Argentinian hearts in 2014, he was one of seven German players in the final to have played under the Catalan manager that season at Bayern Munich.

This is likely to be less about Guardiola specifically, despite his brilliance, and more about his indirect influence on the tactical coherence of a national team. With him at the helm of the country’s best side, his players would naturally get national team starts; the ability of those players to click when on the pitch together meant that they had more coherent tactics than other teams stacked with good players. Indeed, Italy, which won the 2006 World Cup with a quintessentially Italian style of football, featured a spine of five Juventus players in the final.

With only four Manchester City players on the squad, manager Gareth Southgate will pay homage to Guardiola’s team in style more than in personnel. Man City midfielders David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne are playing for Spain and Belgium respectively, but Southgate will try to replicate them by using Jesse Lingard and Dele Alli as “free eights” in the midfield. England has six more players total from Tottenham, managed by Mauricio Pochettino, and Liverpool, managed by Jürgen Klopp. These teams, like City, press the opposition extremely aggressively out of possession, with all three in the top 10 in Europe’s biggest competitions this season in terms of how quickly they shut down their opponents:

England features cohorts from aggressive-pressing clubs

The 10 big five European club teams best at pressuring opponents, 2017-18

teamleagueAvg. Opponent Possession Duration

Manchester CityPremier League6.71 sec.

EibarLa Liga7.23

Bayern MunichBundesliga7.51

Tottenham HotspurPremier League7.60

RB LeipzigBundesliga7.88

Borussia DortmundBundesliga7.91

LiverpoolPremier League7.92

MarseilleLigue 18.15

Hamburger SVBundesliga8.22

RomaSerie A8.36

The big five leagues are the Premier League (England), Bundesliga (Germany), Ligue 1 (France), La Liga (Spain) and Serie A (Italy).

Source: Football Whispers

Southgate’s plan seems to be to put the players from these teams into a compatible lineup before re-creating their off-the-ball tactics. As I noted in my Group G preview, of all the teams to qualify for the World Cup, England ranks third in breaking up an opponent’s possession before it completes three passes, behind only Germany and Spain.

England’s famed problem has been getting its generational talents to click together. For once, the big teams in the Premier League are kindred spirits tactically, and this will have an impact on the national team’s ability to leverage the players provided by those clubs.

Young attackers

England is fielding an extremely young side in Russia, with an average age of 26 — only Nigeria is younger. And England’s average of 19 caps per player makes it the most inexperienced side in the competition.2 But while they may be relatively new to the international stage, these youngsters are by no means immature in terms of elite soccer. England’s attack, in particular, is filled to the brim with talent just ready to peak.

England’s youth movement

Ranks of Harry Kane, Dele Alli and Raheem Sterling in key offensive statistics in the English Premier League, 2017-18

Rank per 90 minutes

StatisticHarry KaneDele AlliRaheem Sterling

Expected goals1388

Expected assists76127

Goals3528

Assists93158

Successful dribbles666831

Source: Football Whispers

Tottenham’s Harry Kane, for example, is one of the best goal-scoring strikers in the world at the tender age of 24. Somewhat terrifyingly, he is still improving: He was even better at getting off quality shots this season than he was the year before. The expected goals per 90 minutes from his shots in the Premier League rose from 0.45 in 2016-17 to 0.75 this year.

Dele Alli, 22, will support Kane for their country as he does for their club. His 2017-18 season was marred for some by the idea that it was a regression compared with the year before. What really happened, though, was that he got fewer chances but created more. He also experienced a downturn in chance conversion, from scoring 44 percent more than might be expected based on chance quality in 2016-17 to underachieving it by 12 percent this season. All that made people forget that Alli is one of the brightest under-23 talents in the world. And nobody — apart from maybe Denmark’s Christian Eriksen — is better at supplying Kane.

Man City’s Raheem Sterling may have made recent headlines for getting a rifle tattooed on his leg, but the more important of his designs is the one on his arm of a young boy, wearing England’s No. 10 shirt, looking up at Wembley Stadium, the home of English football. He’s my player to watch for Group G because of his electric ability to both get and create chances, coming off the back of an incredibly productive league season with 18 goals and 11 assists. And he’s only 23.

Dark horses?

The biggest problem for England in terms of being a dark horse in Russia is its likely post-group opposition. The English have a good shot of making the quarterfinal (58 percent when the tourney began) but will probably have to face Germany or Brazil at that point, depending on whether England finishes above Belgium in their group. Winning a matchup against one of those powerhouses is a long shot, though anything can happen in a World Cup.

England has an exciting team of young stars, playing at stylistically compatible clubs, and a manager who seems tactically savvy despite his relative inexperience. Even if they don’t manage to bring home the trophy this summer, the future looks bright for The Three Lions for the first time in a generation.

Neil Paine contributed research.

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Firemans4Horn

Firemans4Horn 18123

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

And once again I will scream from the top of the shard......

Sterling and Rashford wide.

Vardy in front of Kane.

Run.

Run.

and run Some Moar.

Anything else is a strategy designed not to win.

I hope i'm wrong.

 

With Southgate wanting to play a back 5 That would put Alli on the bench and leave them with a one man midfield of Jordan henderson? They would be way too light in the midfield. 

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10923

Posted
Posted

why does henderson have to play?  i'm a pool fan and dislike henderson's game at this level.

you build the formation around your talent unless you have unlimited talent.  frankly i don't care who the other six would be behind a kane/rashford/sterling/vardy diamond.

the goal is GOALS.   outscore the opposition.

maybe i'm wrong.  hope i'm wrong. hup hup engerland.

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Hagbard Celine

Hagbard Celine 10923

Posted
Posted

i2uPbC9W_o.jpg

 

confirmation the lizard continues his dipshittery against amanaplanacanalpanama.  fucktard.  playing so they won't get yelled at, happy to show well with a QF exit on kicks.  pathetic.

 

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/44565252

England assistant manager Steve Holland may have dropped a hint as to England's starting line-up for their second World Cup game against Panama on Sunday.

Gareth Southgate's number two was seen holding training notes at a session in Repino.

They indicated that striker Marcus Rashford could be in line to start alongside captain Harry Kane.

Raheem Sterling may be dropped to the bench while Ruben Loftus-Cheek could replace the injured Dele Alli.

The notes appear to show Alli listed separately from the other 22 squad members under 'medical'.

The Tottenham player suffered a thigh injury during England's 2-1 win over Tunisia on Monday.

"We just focus on what comes out of the manager's mouth," said defender Trent Alexander-Arnold.

"We haven't been directly told who's starting and who's not, so all positions are up for grabs.

"Until the manager names the team it doesn't matter what's leaked because the lads don't pay any notice to that kind of thing."

Holland was appointed assistant manager to then-Under 21 manager Southgate in 2013, before they both moved up to the senior team in 2016.

England play Panama in Nizhny Novgorod on Sunday, with the match live on BBC One from 12:10 BST.

+++

'Changes appear entirely logical' - analysis

Phil McNulty, BBC Sport chief football writer

England will feel an element of embarrassment that assistant manager Holland appears to have revealed the team to face Panama.

It will not last too long, however, as the changes that manager Gareth Southgate may or may not be making appear, on first glance, to be entirely logical.

The major debate will centre around the potential exclusion of Raheem Sterling, who drew a blank in the opening win against Tunisia and has now gone 21 England games without a goal.

Panama may have been an opportunity to break that duck but it seems Manchester United's Marcus Rashford will get the chance to take advantage.

Southgate is a huge admirer of Sterling but Rashford may be able to make life interesting for him with a good performance against Panama.

Ruben Loftus-Cheek was the other name on Holland's list as a replacement for the injured Dele Alli, who is still receiving treatment for a thigh injury.

Loftus-Cheek was highly impressive in a cameo as a substitute against Tunisia and fully deserves his opportunity if Holland's team-sheet proves correct.

 

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Jive Turkey

Jive Turkey 12644

Posted
Posted

Any reason England shouldn’t make the semis? Other than they’ll be old England?

Southgate has changed things. Should beat Colombia, especially if James is gimpy. 

Sweden or Switzerland in the quarters doesn’t scare me. 

I’m hoping against hope, but England should make the final four. 

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Napoleon

Napoleon 8700

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

Yeah, Sweden would be the perfect candidate to muck things up. 


Sweden definitely did the right thing when they told Zlatan- "We'll let you announce that you 'will not come out of retirement', but there's no way that your fucking ego is going to come into this squad and much up the chemistry that we've got going here."

They've got a good thing going and they could be a problem for the anglicans.

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Napoleon

Napoleon 8700

Posted
Posted (edited)

I just looked up Trippier on Wikipedia to see what his "official height" is.

ANSWER: 5' 10"

Having watched that Colombia goal bounce over his head, Trippier's diminutive stature became more pronounced.

I then looked to see Raheem Sterling's "official height".

ANSWER: 5' 7"
 

EDITED: My guess is that Raheem Sterling is in the 5' 6" to 5' 6 1/2" range and that Trippier might be a tad bit shorter, in 5' 5" to 5' 6 1/2" range. 

Usually it can be argued that height doesn't matter, and Sergio Agüero getting a header for a goal against France proves that height can be wildly overrated, but I'm not sure if having Trippier on the post was the best idea. The only problem is Who is he going to cover? if you take him off the post and have him man-up. He's a good player, but his height (or lack there of) nearly cost England today.

GettyImages-966439430.jpg


Eric Dier is listed at 6' 2" and is about a full head taller than than Trippier. I'm only 5' 9" and yet my head is about 8 inches from jawline to the top of my head. Dier's head is probably bigger than mine, so ~5' 6" (+/- 0.5" to 1.0") seems about right.

Edited by Napoleon
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