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the cotton bowl weather/travel thread


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1205pm monday
 

the good news: the dfw metroplex has 80000+ hotel rooms so flexing in to an earlier or later arrival should be easy, because the property you are booked at knows you can cancel now and go somewhere else easily

 

the fosu diaspora: it's still snowing in the ohio valley but will stop before sunset today (tuesday); it's all snow west of the appalaichan foothills line to the east of lexington to columbus; tomorrow morning (tuesday) as soon as they know I-71 is clear they will head south making for nashville or memphis with a plan to get to the metroplex wednesday afternoon evening - this is important for anyone from our tribe that is going to flex in to a wednesday arrival ahead of schedule - change your reservation ASAP this afternoon and plan on getting in even earlier to avoid the fosu hordes - there will be 20k-30k rooms taken by this horde, at least half checking in wednesday starting late afternoon - don't get caught up in the middle of the horde checking in - that number could go up as many decide the risk of trying to fly on thursday is not worth it - the risk being dfw & dal getting turbofucked

 

monday noon assessment is based on this video from kxas fort worth who i trust more than any other weather department in dfw:

https://www.nbcdfw.com/video-weather/nbc-5-forecast-a-cold-weather-advisory-for-monday-morning/3733677/

 

WEDNESDAY
the winter precip flows in from the southwest possibly arriving in austin & waco by 11pm, thus 3pm departures from san antonio, austin or houston will get to dfw with no issues

THURSDAY
over the 36 hours from 11pm wednesday night the line of winter precip shows running from west of I35 up to somewhere around the split and then east as far south as palestine overnight

FRIDAY
weather channel thinks dfw high will be 38; obviously the further south the faster it gets above freezing - but it's supposed to be overcast - no sun thermal to accelerate the melt; kickoff is at 630pm; deathstar park-N-hike plus ingress requires a 5pm arrival; driving from either austin or houston is likely 90% going to work if you leave at 10am and take your time with someone monitoring the advance of the melt line in front of you


kxan austin thinks the freezing line will be further south fucking everything on a line from austin to east texas along and to the north of 21 and 105, with a batch of ice north and east of conroe/huntsville; if they are right, driving up friday becomes risky both safety and arrival time


we'll see what they both say at 6pm-ish

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If the snow actually ends Friday morning, and we have 6+ hours of ground warmth, traffic, etc. I have zero concerns about driving from FW to Jerryworld for the game. It will be fine. The drive back might suck a little shit if the roads refreeze. Hopefully we get some sun Friday afternoon.

Not a metrologist but I have lived in Ft Worth for 23 years  

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2 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Team Driving up Friday…(from Austin)

 

a 10am departure would be nice...it won’t be until 12:30 at the earliest for me unfortunately.

I’m more worried about 35 traffic volume at that time approaching TX/OU Friday afternoon levels than I am about the condition of the roads. 

I plan on leaving pretty early but I'm still thinking 281 might be the call this time, given arlington....you can almost guarantee some shitshow/accident on 35 with weather. It is an extra 40 minutes but usually no traffic issues.

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4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I plan on leaving pretty early but I'm still thinking 281 might be the call this time, given arlington....you can almost guarantee some shitshow/accident on 35 with weather. It is an extra 40 minutes but usually no traffic issues.

That’s my plan. I am staying away from I-35. Staying in Arlington right by stadium so fingers crossed we can take time and make there with no issues. 

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30 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I plan on leaving pretty early but I'm still thinking 281 might be the call this time, given arlington....you can almost guarantee some shitshow/accident on 35 with weather. It is an extra 40 minutes but usually no traffic issues.

25 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

That’s my plan. I am staying away from I-35. Staying in Arlington right by stadium so fingers crossed we can take time and make there with no issues. 

 

the actual winter precip location may change but right now 281 is not a cunning plan on thursday or friday

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4 hours ago, CashMcCoy said:

Worst of both worlds: my plan of driving in from the midwest. Looking like I might be missing out sadly.

Take a couple days off work and drive in Wednesday. Drive back Saturday. Snow/Ice isn't supposed to get here until Thursday, and Saturday looks to be sunny with a high in the 40s

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bad news

kxas has shifted in to more agreement with the kxan modeling

the line of fuckery could shift east of i35 - or not

but more importantly, the line of sleet & freezing rain mix is going to be ~100 miles wide north-to-south and run from waco to shreveport

this is the kxas picture at 9am friday

sorry for the shading - unavoidable when you pause the video

image.thumb.png.942af8d64f508df659f2d9ee2b693395.png

the damage will have already been done

all day thursday and thursday night overnight mixed precip will have fallen and frozen on both i35 and i45 south of dallas

 

wednesday remains wide open

 

don't try to drive thursday or thursday night

 

friday is a crapshoot to get to the game on time from austin or houston

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monday 6pm tl/dr

 

100% certainty of attendance with lowest possible stress by absorbing the extra cost of arriving wednesday

any travel air or ground thursday through friday noon is a crapshoot

leaving austin or houston at 10am on friday is a crapshoot but likely gets you to the deathstar by 5pm - if you don't die on the road

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All these couch burners in their rented chevy malibus are thinking a little ice, 3-4 inches of snow thurs to friday am,   No problem driving across town to the game.   They don’t realize we have 2 sand trucks and no salt for the entire metroplex.  It’ll be hand to hand combat on the roads.   I expect a very late crowd. Ticket prices should plunge as the flight cancellations mount.  

Edited by TheAuditor
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the weather gods are not cooperating with the tailgate

the wishcast: somehow i35 stays clear or melts in plenty of time for a 10am austin departure to encounter unfrozen (but still wet) roads to the tailgate for a 2pm or 3pm arrival

the forecast: i35 is still receiving winter precip at 10am north of hillsboro that doesn't melt until noon or 1pm such that a tailgate arrival with any time to spend at the tailgate event makes the walk to the stadium and ingress process pushing butts in seats until the 2nd quarter

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2 minutes ago, TheAuditor said:

All these couch burners in their rented chevy malibus are thinking a little ice, 3-4 inches of snow thurs to friday am,   No problem driving across town to the game.   They don’t realize we have 2 sand trucks and no salt for the entire metroplex.  It’ll be hand to hand combat on the roads.   I expect a very late crowd. Ticket prices should plunge as the flight cancellations mount.  

 

dfw's smartly laid out highways are built to handle ice storms and all winter conditions. things should be operating as normal 

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4 minutes ago, TheAuditor said:

All these couch burners in their rented chevy malibus are thinking a little ice, 3-4 inches of snow thurs to friday am,   No problem driving across town to the game.   They don’t realize we have 2 sand trucks and no salt for the entire metroplex.  It’ll be hand to hand combat on the roads.   I expect a very late crowd. Ticket prices should plunge as the flight cancellations mount.  

everything is going to melt by 3pm

travel within the metroplex is going to be normal

it's getting TO the metroplex that is the problem

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i'm in austin right now and the local weather teams are competing for the 3rd-world situational awareness trophy in US broadcasting

my god they have remained dumbed down to a level that was surprising even in the 80s in comparison to dallas or houston

they spend 5 minutes on the game and talk about "arlington" and "i35" "again"

right after they spend 5 minutes on a winter weather fearfest that cuts off at the north edge of williamson county

i don't expect the dfw or houston weather teams to contemplate i35/i45 travel on thursday and friday but i sure as fuck expect the austin stations to do so for i35

trying to piece together what each of them are thinking and how it stitches together from south to north is a pain in the ass

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I am showing 9-11 inches of snow on Thursday with 3 more inches on Friday morning.  A foot of snow in DFW would be brutal for days here.  Not sure the accumulation would melt (on non highway roads) and they aren’t going to have snow plow trucks clearing all the side streets.  Total shit show.  I’m supposed to head to Tampa for work on Wednesday but think I may bail as I may not be able to get back.

Edited by Beantown Express 2.0
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6 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I am showing 9-11 inches of snow on Thursday with 3 more inches on Friday morning.  A foot of snow in DFW would be brutal for days here.  Not sure the accumulation would melt (on non highway roads) and they aren’t going to have snow plow trucks clearing all the side streets.  Total shit show.  I’m supposed to head to Tampa for work on Wednesday but think I may bail as I may not be able to get back.

When is the last time Dallas got that much measurable snow?  I lived there for two years and most we ever had was maybe an inch.  

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10 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I am showing 9-11 inches of snow on Thursday with 3 more inches on Friday morning.  A foot of snow in DFW would be brutal for days here.  Not sure the accumulation would melt (on non highway roads) and they aren’t going to have snow plow trucks clearing all the side streets.  Total shit show.  I’m supposed to head to Tampa for work on Wednesday but think I may bail as I may not be able to get back.

southwest can schedule around dal to avoid an irrop pileup and recover fairly quickly - but i haven't looked at what they are dealing with from the midwest over the weekend

american at dfw?  almost guaranteed multi-day melt to catch up

i would avoid any air travel departing before sunday any where east of the rockies

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18 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

When is the last time Dallas got that much measurable snow?  I lived there for two years and most we ever had was maybe an inch.  

We got 12.5 inches of snow over two days in February 2010.

In February 2011 we got about 5-6 inches the week of Jerry's Super Bowl.

 

 

Edited by Surly Bevo
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16 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

We got 12.5 inches of snow over two days in February 2010.

In February 2011 we got about 5-6 inches the week of Jerry's Super Bowl.

 

 

That Feb 2010 wasn't too bad from a driving perspective, I drove to DFW Airport the morning after the snow dumped. The highways were ok, the neighborhoods sucked because obviously no snow plows

What I remember about Feb 2010 was that it wasn't supposed to be that much snow. Then I looked out the window and it looked like we were in Canada (I presume, fuck living up north). By far the heaviest snowfall I have ever seen living here.

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