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the cotton bowl weather/travel thread


Hagbard Celine

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9 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Well, that's good news. I think it'll be fine once the temps rise above freezing. My app doesn't show it dropping below freezing between tonight and Friday night. 

This is the key detail. 

2 minutes ago, SimkinsMan said:

Meteorologist here. 

There is definitely the potential for a serious transportation mess in the DFW metroplex on Thursday/night/Friday morning. There are a couple of questions that are very difficult to answer at this point, including the profile of the atmosphere (will it produce snow, sleet, or freezing rain) and how quickly temperatures reach above freezing on Friday morning. Some modeling recently has indicated that DFW may only briefly freeze on Thursday night/Friday morning, which would speed up the transition to wet rather than icy streets on Friday morning.

Bottom line: Any travel into DFW after noon on Friday should be fine, but before then there's definitely the potential for a clusterfuck. Especially if the stars align and the region gets half an inch of freezing rain.

This guy gets it. 

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11 minutes ago, SimkinsMan said:

Meteorologist here. 

There is definitely the potential for a serious transportation mess in the DFW metroplex on Thursday/night/Friday morning. There are a couple of questions that are very difficult to answer at this point, including the profile of the atmosphere (will it produce snow, sleet, or freezing rain) and how quickly temperatures reach above freezing on Friday morning. Some modeling recently has indicated that DFW may only briefly freeze on Thursday night/Friday morning, which would speed up the transition to wet rather than icy streets on Friday morning.

Bottom line: Any travel into DFW after noon on Friday should be fine, but before then there's definitely the potential for a clusterfuck. Especially if the stars align and the region gets half an inch of freezing rain.

Thanks Spence!

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My app widget shows a low of 32 on Friday for Arlington.  There shouldn’t be much issue. The ground isn’t cold and wouldn’t get cold from a couple nights in the 20s this week. The precip would either be rain or something frozen but near melting temp and would melt upon hitting the ground. 
 

hopefully txdot has sanded bridges and overpasses or will do before the precip happens. 
 

 

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Living vicariously through y’all as I decided against flying into DFW from DEN and staying multiple nights for this weather shit show.

Only thing I’ve got to add to the weather conversation is (presumably) the same storm that is coming for DFW just dropped 10 hours of continuous snow in Denver, but looking at only 4” of accumulation or so.

Be safe on the roads ladies and gentlemen. So few with the requisite AWD or snow tires in central TX through DFW means there will be accidents.

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55 minutes ago, SimkinsMan said:

Meteorologist here. 

There is definitely the potential for a serious transportation mess in the DFW metroplex on Thursday/night/Friday morning. There are a couple of questions that are very difficult to answer at this point, including the profile of the atmosphere (will it produce snow, sleet, or freezing rain) and how quickly temperatures reach above freezing on Friday morning. Some modeling recently has indicated that DFW may only briefly freeze on Thursday night/Friday morning, which would speed up the transition to wet rather than icy streets on Friday morning.

Bottom line: Any travel into DFW after noon on Friday should be fine, but before then there's definitely the potential for a clusterfuck. Especially if the stars align and the region gets half an inch of freezing rain.

that you?  if not fuck off

image.png.0b08f08266e3d814cd2ea431f2dc76a7.png

Edited by MontereyMX
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2 hours ago, immamac said:

So, for you people who have never lived anywhere in your life that has snow, 31F is not cold enough to freeze snow to roads with any kind of traffic on them and you need to have below 26 for 10+ hours for good thick ice sheets to form that are bad enough to cause big issues. The fact that forecast has a high of 42 on Friday may as well be that there's a fucking furnace for ice/snow/etc. It will melt in less than 10 minutes at that temp and it's not enough precip to even keep the roads wet. 

Get a fucking grip. Holy shit. 4 inches of snow isn't 4 inches of rain. 

assuming a constant airmass, the high temperature of the day will not be achieved until very late in the afternoon

big issues occur when .01" of any winter precipitation that is not snow hits a road and freezes

and if the accumulation is more than .1" it does not melt instantly at 33F

furthermore the type of pavement also determines the melt rate

finally direct sunlight also accelerates the melt which is NOT forecast for friday

txdot needs to concentrate every sanding vehicle in a 200 mile radius on the frozen precip zone on i35 between waco and italy

will the tower or bellmont or cdc reach out to someone a mile away in the governor's mansion to make it happen?

only the shadow knows

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2 hours ago, immamac said:

Also everything is gonna be salted to fuck and back so good luck freezing anything above 26. 

I do think if the storm pushes south and fucks the roads on the way in that's a concern. It's not at all a concern if you are anywhere in north Texas already. 

35 to Dallas is gonna be completely fine Friday afternoon, with no ice or snow. It may be slightly wet. Thursday night will be sketch. Wednesday is completely clear. 

we don't salt in texas

we sand & the toll roads have a chem they use with sand but i have never seen salt used in texas

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3 hours ago, SimkinsMan said:

Meteorologist here. 

There is definitely the potential for a serious transportation mess in the DFW metroplex on Thursday/night/Friday morning. There are a couple of questions that are very difficult to answer at this point, including the profile of the atmosphere (will it produce snow, sleet, or freezing rain) and how quickly temperatures reach above freezing on Friday morning. Some modeling recently has indicated that DFW may only briefly freeze on Thursday night/Friday morning, which would speed up the transition to wet rather than icy streets on Friday morning.

Bottom line: Any travel into DFW after noon on Friday should be fine, but before then there's definitely the potential for a clusterfuck. Especially if the stars align and the region gets half an inch of freezing rain.

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So, when should you travel? The feeling here is that travel starts to deteriorate during the day Thursday. TxDot and local officials will make sure the major roadways will be fine but secondary and tertiary roads could be problematic.

We can only guide you in this story. We feel Thursday night will pose more travel issues than Friday morning. Leaving our local area Friday around 9 to 10 a.m. should be enough time to get to DFW safely.

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32 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

So, when should you travel? The feeling here is that travel starts to deteriorate during the day Thursday. TxDot and local officials will make sure the major roadways will be fine but secondary and tertiary roads could be problematic.

We can only guide you in this story. We feel Thursday night will pose more travel issues than Friday morning. Leaving our local area Friday around 9 to 10 a.m. should be enough time to get to DFW safely.

I’m planning on leaving Tyler at noon on Friday.

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5 hours ago, SimkinsMan said:

Meteorologist here. 

There is definitely the potential for a serious transportation mess in the DFW metroplex on Thursday/night/Friday morning. There are a couple of questions that are very difficult to answer at this point, including the profile of the atmosphere (will it produce snow, sleet, or freezing rain) and how quickly temperatures reach above freezing on Friday morning. Some modeling recently has indicated that DFW may only briefly freeze on Thursday night/Friday morning, which would speed up the transition to wet rather than icy streets on Friday morning.

Bottom line: Any travel into DFW after noon on Friday should be fine, but before then there's definitely the potential for a clusterfuck. Especially if the stars align and the region gets half an inch of freezing rain.

Yeah but yall are never right. So expect it to be sunny and warm Friday boys 

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Tuesday afternoon update

We are just now coming into the range of high-resolution models (i.e. NAM, HRRR, etc.) which typically do a much better job handling the smaller-scale dynamics that matter when it comes to winter storm events. Confidence in the forecast will grow, accordingly, over the next 24 hours. What I can say right now is that things are trending in a better direction, which is to say a bit warmer on Thursday night, and a bit less precipitation. However that does not mean there will not be mobility problems around DFW, and I'm also concerned about the possibility of ice on I-35 N and I-45 N on Thursday night or Friday morning.

I'll provide a better update in the morning when we've had more runs of the higher-resolution models.

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