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America's Foreign Policy & Other Shit Going On Around the World thread


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Posted
Yes, and no. We have another poster who knows Central Europe way better than me. [mention=5728]956 Worldwide[/mention]  Please come to the white phone.
Most of my german contacts are nervous. With almost 20% they are a power. They can stop anything. I am also curious about where they won. Looks like mainly in the East.

Oh yeah, their stronghold is the East. The culture that lived under the Russian yoke for 50 years, and longs for their authoritarian daddy.
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Posted
45 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


So, I’m not familiar enough with German parliamentary math. Can’t the CDU and the Greens and SPD build a coalition that doesn’t need AfD?

We have friends there who are already texting a lot with us today, very nervous.

German elections are notoriously complex— a first round of direct first past the post geographic districts and then a proportional second round.  The numbers to watch are 3 (direct seats) and 5 (percent)— the threshold to actual be seated in parliament. 
 

Parties that don’t get the threshold means that seats in parliament are reassigned proportionally to parties that make it in, so CDU for instance will get more seats than the percentage vote they get. 
 

Too early to see how things shake out and it’s important to say that The Left and BSW are also very pro-Kremlin, populist, anti-Europe.  They are constitutionally more like AfD than SPD. 
 

A grand deal between CDU, SPD, and Greens could happen and maybe FDP gets across the line.  But these grand coalitions are inherently fragile as it’s a marriage of political enemies with deep policy differences.  No one is happy and all parties jockey for more power.  The dysfunction feeds discontent and populism.

It is a dangerous time for basic liberal values.  And the warning signs had been blinking in Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia for easily a decade but the collective West chose to drive with the check engine light on. 

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Posted (edited)

If you have a way to read The Atlanticthis is a pretty good read on the AfD and Germany. As in the US, a lot of it is self-inflicted.

Edited by naija
Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:


So, I’m not familiar enough with German parliamentary math. Can’t the CDU and the Greens and SPD build a coalition that doesn’t need AfD?

We have friends there who are already texting a lot with us today, very nervous.

Until recently, none of the other parties would have anything to do with AfD.  CDU accepting AfD help on a recent immigration bill was somewhat scandalous.

Often you'd see the #1 and #2 party work something out.  But I doubt that happens here.  The Greens would team up with CDU before the Greens would let AfD in the door I think.  If they had any sense at all, the SPD, Greens and FDP should just accept some small slice of power and freeze out the Nazis.  We don't need another von Papen thinking they'll let AfD in just a little bit and then control them.  That didn't work out so well the last time.

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Posted

Merz has for all his career been a dyed-in-the-wool Transatlanticist and this speech is pure Gaullist.   These are incredible things to hear from a CDU figure.  I don’t think people understand that we are actively destroying a world where the single largest and wealthiest common market is friendly and aligned with us.  In one month. 
 

image.thumb.png.e2cb0bb05f77b43b4161fcd2f18b9c09.png

 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Merz has for all his career been a dyed-in-the-wool Transatlanticist and this speech is pure Gaullist.   These are incredible things to hear from a CDU figure.  I don’t think people understand that we are actively destroying a world where the single largest and wealthiest common market is friendly and aligned with us.  In one month. 
 

image.thumb.png.e2cb0bb05f77b43b4161fcd2f18b9c09.png

 

It turns out that De Gaulle was right about the inherent dangers of being overly reliant on the US. He was a dick about it, but ultimately, correct.

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Posted

As of now, the CDU and SPD will be netting 33% and 19% of total seats in the Bundestag, which is > 50% if my math is correct. So those two alone can form a governing coalition. 

It's all up to the CDU, but the dreaded 3-party grand coalition can be avoided. Hopefully, Germany has some solid anti-corruption laws to prevent Elmo's influence as the new government forms.

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Posted
8 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Most of my german contacts are nervous. With almost 20% they are a power. They can stop anything. I am also curious about where they won. Looks like mainly in the East.

Putin’s old stomping grounds. 

Posted
5 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

As of now, the CDU and SPD will be netting 33% and 19% of total seats in the Bundestag, which is > 50% if my math is correct. So those two alone can form a governing coalition. 

It's all up to the CDU, but the dreaded 3-party grand coalition can be avoided. Hopefully, Germany has some solid anti-corruption laws to prevent Elmo's influence as the new government forms.

Correct.  The Kremlin BSW project barely missed the cutoff so CDU and SPD can make a red-black coalition. Much easier than trying to cobble together one with the Greens, too. 



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