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Southern CA Fires- Extreme Santa Ana Winds


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Moved out of Sierra Madre 4 years ago to the great PNW. This is pretty crazy...Altadena (sbbruin's home town) is destroyed. Watched the middle school burn to the ground on TV while the building was surrounded by fire trucks....couldn't see a soul fighting the fire.  There were no fire trucks to be seen in Sierra Madre as the fire roared in the foothills above town....the numbers of lost homes there was small, given the situation. Seems like the 'first responders' are more interested in holding press conferences  and spewing excuses than anything else. Fire Chief said " hydrants aren't designed for wild fires, just single building fires".  Insurance companies have only begun dropping policies in California. Initially it was just the rurals, but now they can go after the metro areas. Pacific Palisades was one on the wealthier communities in socal, now it's dust. A whole lot for of Malibu and Topanga has burned that hasn't bee mentioned by the media. Mandeville and Brentwood are next.

Edited by otisdog
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a couple of notes: first off, Carolla is a complete moron.  Kimmel told a funny story about the time Carolla decided that handwashing was "unnecessary bullshit", and said he wasn't washing his hands anymore.  He had pinkeye within a few days.  He was also hanging out in Kimmel's backyard, and needed to take a leak, so he decided that the appropriate place to piss was in the sandbox where Kimmel's kids play.

As to insurance, the CA Association of Realtors revised out contracts a while back.  Now, during the standard buyer-investigation period, buyers are instructed to investigate "insurability" of the property. 

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Oh, it's a Band-Aid on a hatchet wound no doubt but I don't know what can be done for people living in areas like California or Florida (Texas ain't far behind). You can't make companies offer insurance to high-risk properties. Climate change, or whatever you want to call it, is a thing. It has increased the number of catastrophic weather events that effect this country exponentially in the last 10+ years and it shows no sign of letting up. We've all felt rising insurance costs directly if you own homes and/or vehicles.
Florida enacted unprecedented updates to building codes post-Andrew and that's been extremely helpful. But there are still structures that pre-date 1991 that just hadn't been hit until more recently. Not sure how you engineer things that are impervious to fire. Most of the HNW carriers have wildfire defense systems in place that are free of charge. They closely monitor wildfires and if they have an insured structure in the path, they will send their private firefighting teams out to do all they can to save the property. They move shit around, cut back vegetation and other things. Then they'll water yards and structures. The last-ditch thing is they spray a flame-resistant/retardant foam all over the house that is highly effective. Then after the fire goes past, they come in and hose the foam off. They obviously don't have the capability to handle all homes.
This might be getting way into the weeds but insurance companies will look at risks pretty closely in high wildfire risk zones. Carriers and builders alike have reverse engineered homebuilding techniques to cut back the threat of flying embers igniting nearby structures. Soffits/eaves have been redesigned -- my understanding is they used to almost suck up embers like a vacuum and that area would just ignite. But, again, I don't know how you make something that is completely fire-resistant.
My wife's cousins grew up and lived in Northern California (Sacramento/Chico area). Her female cousin's home burned completely in either the Shasta fire that killed like 300 people 5-6 years ago or one of the other ones from a few years after that. Her male cousin's home outside Chico was miraculously the only house on his street -- one of the few in town that didn't burn down in fires last year. He had pretty severe smoke damage though. These homes pale in value to what's burning in LA right now, which is why this is going to be a disaster of epic proportions. I'm seeing estimates of $60B in potential losses now. That is an industry-altering figure.

Some of those older stucco houses have fire retardant asbestos (not friable so wasn’t required to be remediated). Too bad the roofs don’t have that protection.
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4 hours ago, Duane Moore said:

That sounds like what they did at the Getty Villa and it seems to have worked. The one planning criticism I have seen that seems to have some merit is the question of whether regular controlled burns were being prevented by environmental regulations might have helped here. 

Yep, we haven't talked about it, but controlled burns help a lot. But environmental regs aren't the only things keeping those things from happening. It's also about funding. There's a whole lot of acreage all over the country that really needs maintenance in the form of controlled burning, but isn't getting it.

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4 minutes ago, wood said:

Yep, we haven't talked about it, but controlled burns help a lot. But environmental regs aren't the only things keeping those things from happening. It's also about funding. There's a whole lot of acreage all over the country that really needs maintenance in the form of controlled burning, but isn't getting it.

Goats. Let me know when you send the check.

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4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

One time Superman froze a nearby lake and dropped it on a raging fire. They should try that if they haven't already. 

Wouldn’t it be easier to just fly around the world backwards so fast it turns back time and we prevent the initial ignition point? Use your head, man!

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20 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

You hear of insurance companies going insolvent but not much about reinsurance companies going the same way.  Seems like you should hear more about reinsurance going bankrupt if the system was working like it's supposed to.  So are reinsurers refusing to write for certain parts of portfolios or are the insurance companies just not buying enough reinsurance to cover all their assets? 

The massive increases we've seen in the property market is directly correlated to the massive increases the primary insurance carriers were seeing in the reinsurance markets. They have to buy insurance to cover their insurance commitments and they were passing a portion of those costs along to us, the consumer. The good news is that those rates were softening some of late but I'm certain this wildfire event in SoCal will not help things.

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The controlled burn thing is a bit of a lark.  It's hard to control burn in residential areas, because (waives hand).....Houses.  The goat/brush clearing is actually a significant point, but again: you are talking 100 mph Santa Anna Winds in a defacto desert area, following on the heels of an irregularily wet season.  Brush clearing on a mega basis is expensive. 

Texas had a week long power outage because.....it was "too expensive" to insulate the natural gas lines. 

Control burns work well in rural areas, but believe it or not, in addition to regulations, there is actually an industrial forest fire fighting complex that actively lobbies against controlled burns.  Because 'murica. 

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1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

a couple of notes: first off, Carolla is a complete moron.  Kimmel told a funny story about the time Carolla decided that handwashing was "unnecessary bullshit", and said he wasn't washing his hands anymore.  He had pinkeye within a few days.  He was also hanging out in Kimmel's backyard, and needed to take a leak, so he decided that the appropriate place to piss was in the sandbox where Kimmel's kids play.

As to insurance, the CA Association of Realtors revised out contracts a while back.  Now, during the standard buyer-investigation period, buyers are instructed to investigate "insurability" of the property. 

People are losing their homes and Carolla is holed up in a hotel complaining about regulations on rebuilds. What an asshole. CA does have some burdensome regulations but things are also different when recovering from a natural disaster as opposed to building a structure for your nanny or MIL.

EDIT: This disaster also may give more credence to the having even stricter regulations. While a wildfire like this is tough to control via building regulations, it's not out of the realm of possibilities that poor construction material can add to a normal wildfire.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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6 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Yep. Here's another Insurance 101 tip to learn moving forward (I think we'll start seeing the non-admitted solution become more prevalent in Texas moving forward).

There are two types of homeowners policies -- admitted and non-admitted. Some companies only offer non-admitted policies. Some companies offer only admitted policies. Some companies offer both. The difference is that admitted policies are filed with the state's department of insurance. They are required to include coverage for certain things (at certain minimum limits) as per that particular state's guidelines. They also have to file the rates they charge. These rates must be approved by the state department of insurance. Coverage and pricing MUST be approved to become an admitted policy. The key takeaway is that admitted policies are then backed by the state department of insurance's guaranteed fund.

Let's say you buy an admitted HO policy from C-Man Insurance Company. Hey, it was such a great deal that you then referred all of your neighbors who also bought C-Man policies. Let's now pretend that a F5 tornado blows through your neighborhood and half of the insured homes are completely destroyed. Uh-oh, C-Man didn't have nearly the cash reserves to pay claims that everybody thought and his company cannot pay all the claims. C-Man goes insolvent after paying all that it can. This is where the state's fund would step in and make all the policy-holders whole, assuming C-Man sold you an admitted policy. (Note: This will be a long and arduous experience to get paid.)

Now, let's look at non-admitted policies. They will contain many of the same things that admitted policies will have -- coverage for the Dwelling, Personal Property, Other Structures, Additional Living Expenses, Personal Liability. It will cover for loss by fire, escaped water (most likely) and the other main perils (probably). In fact, to the untrained eye it will be hard to tell the difference on many of these unless you're buying specific insurance for an unconventional risk like a home at the base of an active volcano that is listed as a STR on VRBO or some shit like that. But there will be things no longer 'under the hood.'

These policies can be manuscripted by the carrier -- there can be add-ins or carvebacks. (These are Lloyds of London-like policies that were used to insure shit such as Mary Hart's legs back in the day. Yes, I'm getting old.) In addition, carriers can charge whatever the fuck they want for these policies (see Chubb Custom pricing from my post from late last night for my two Montecito opportunities). Now, let's pretend we have the same scenario as above -- your entire neighborhood buys C-Man policies because they're the cheapest policies on the market. Let's pretend that same F5 tornado blows through and destroys the same homes. Let's pretend C-Man (cheap fucker) doesn't have the cash reserves to pay all the claims (he doesn't). I hope you're one of the first in line because not everybody is getting paid and the state will not back-fill these shortfalls.

All of the HNW carriers offer both admitted and non-admitted solutions. While it's absolutely better to have admitted over non-admitted if all other things remain equal. But many of the non-admitted policies are outstanding products. All these carriers are A-rated at least, most are A+ or A++. However, AIG was A-rated when it nearly went tits-up back in 2008 (but that had nothing do with the P&C side -- it was the other side of the house). But we are starting to see non-admitted as the ONLY solution -- if that's even available in some parts of the country (Florida, California, especially and Texas has entered the chat -- Wyoming, Colorado, Montana, etc where you have big, big homes and big exposure to wildfire or hail events).

So, the takeaway is that not all HO policies are created equal but not all non-admitted policies are shit either. They are slowly inching their way into the mainstream because, quite simply, there are probably not better solutions at the moment. Would I rather have a Chubb non-admitted policy than an admitted policy from some carrier I've never heard of? Absolutely. (Shameless plug -- this is where an independent broker who knows what they're doing in situations like this comes in handy.)

Are prices for admitted and non-admitted policies the same? Is there a premium for admitted policies?

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We also had a massive wildfire in the Panhandle because of aging infrastructure where a powerline fell down and ignited a blaze. 

I've seen controlled burns around Yosemite but I think that speaks to more it's not a huge residential area. 

Edited by mdmost
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1 minute ago, gsoda3 said:

Are prices for admitted and non-admitted policies the same? Is there a premium for admitted policies?

It depends on the carrier and it depends on the policy. But, generally, speaking they're not cheaper than admitted policies simply because they're bigger risks for carriers.

Here's another real world example. College buddy has been a client for quite a few years. Lives In North Dallas. Home is insured for $2.5M or so. Was with Nationwide Private Client at a great rate all these years. NWPC decided to end their HNW practice all over the country. Their pricing was superb. We ran all the traps. They had a hail claim and a couple of auto claims. His twin boys are about to turn 16. Yikes. Anyway, the only solution we could find was with Vault's E&S (Excess & Surplus -- non-admitted) program. Vault is a HNW carrier that is only offering E&S policies in Texas now (AIG has rebranded to Private Client Select and is doing the same thing). Great policy that was still broader than anything the middle market or direct writers could offer. Chubb declined. Cincinnati declined. Berkley One's min is $5M now, PURE's is $3M His expiring premium was around $10K -- a unicorn, I know. Vault's offer was $35K. They went to USAA -- and we will try and get them back next year. It sucks.

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9 minutes ago, mdmost said:

We also had a massive wildfire in the Panhandle because of aging infrastructure where a powerline fell down and ignite a blaze. 

I've seen controlled burns around Yosemite but I think that speaks to more it's not a huge residential area. 

The Pampa fire was almost a year ago (Feb). A colleague of mine may or may not insure Boone Pickens' old ranch that suffered a massive loss due to that wildfire. Massive. Then, when that area got massive rain event this summer (???), some of those same properties on that ranch were flooded because all the vegetation and infrastructure that burned away in the wildfire weren't there to direct the water runoff like it had previously. The electric company is gonna (maybe it has) get turbo-fucked by Chubb and the state on that deal.

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32 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

The flat topography we have makes it easier to fight fires and also doesn't contribute to the 60+mph winds that spread the CA fires. Makes a world of difference.

Yes, sure, and differences in flora and tons of other factors too. 

I’m saying the differences in human action such as forest maintenance probably is a way bigger determinant in fire spark and spread than the 0.5c or so increase in mean temperature from the last decade+. 

Like if it starts to sprinkle and you drive 150mph and wreck, its factually true that the road got wetter and is statistically more dangerous, but that wasn’t the main cause of the crash. 

 

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38 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

The flat topography we have makes it easier to fight fires and also doesn't contribute to the 60+mph winds that spread the CA fires. Makes a world of difference.

welp...

image.png.72ac1c6486a7d7ea193665bdba6d439f.png

West Austin better start investing in fire spooge or something

image.thumb.png.439edf2a7d5a17343f428e112d4d7755.png

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Positive vibes for all affected.

Thanks C-Man for the explanations.

I bitch about having to pay for windstorm/wind-driven rain insurance, but that pales in comparison to the prospect of wind-driven fire.

Or wind driven earth, for that matter.

 

Edited by BearSchlong
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5 minutes ago, texasdago said:

welp...

image.png.72ac1c6486a7d7ea193665bdba6d439f.png

West Austin better start investing in fire spooge or something

image.thumb.png.439edf2a7d5a17343f428e112d4d7755.png

Several posters upthread have detailed the difficulties of firefighting in the hills of central Texas and as difficult as that is the problems they have in the actual mountains and canyons of socal are orders of magnitude greater than what we face here. 

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44 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

You hear of insurance companies going insolvent but not much about reinsurance companies going the same way.  Seems like you should hear more about reinsurance going bankrupt if the system was working like it's supposed to.  So are reinsurers refusing to write for certain parts of portfolios or are the insurance companies just not buying enough reinsurance to cover all their assets? 

Using reinsurance isnt a regulatory requirement. Also, wouldn’t the reinsurance be dampened as they only have a portion of the exposure of the originating underwriters.

10 companies transfer a small slice their risk to you - 1 of them (in Florida) go bust, but you priced it right, and have the capital base to support it.

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3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

That website put me at 8/10 for flood risk because I live near the Guadalupe. Except I live on the high side. 

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34 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The goat/brush clearing is actually a significant point, but again: you are talking 100 mph Santa Anna Winds in a defacto desert area, following on the heels of an irregularily wet season. 

Upside: if a fire starts, cabrito.

EDIT:  as often happens, beaten to the punch

Edited by jimmyjazz
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Pertinent to our conversation regarding insurance and the LA fires specifically: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/catastrophe/los-angeles-wildfires-burn-through-the-insurance-industry-519917.aspx?hsmemberId=1024080&tu=55D7E01A-A2EE-4DD3-8B33-867AD97B08C1&utm_campaign=&utm_medium=20250109&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_bVk91xv3aMbVfcSieezriP6JSK-cmczc6CHoQ9xkFuo2HxGlO9VEn2BhCu_orHIuDG7RdKtgZYKnljeoEYHp9WngfPPDOuHIq5DCZrHIf1Fr2leg&_hsmi=341798096&utm_content=55D7E01A-A2EE-4DD3-8B33-867AD97B08C1&utm_source=

 

BTW, I do like the use of the word "bespoke" to describe E&S policies (excess and surplus or non-admitted solutions). Sounds much more palatable. And the offerings from the HNW carriers are definitely of that variety. Shit you buy from Texas Farm Bureau or the like are usually just shit.

 

Quote

 

Southern California is battling multiple wildfires, particularly in the Pacific Palisades region of Los Angeles, fueled by dry conditions and powerful Santa Ana winds.

“It is safe to say that multiple thousands of structures will ultimately be impacted based on preliminary estimates of what has transpired thus far,” said Josh Darr, global head peril advisory for Guy Carpenter. “How many ultimately depends on containment of these fires which remains at zero percent late Wednesday afternoon under hostile firefighting conditions.”

Further highlighting the severity of the Palisades fires, CoreLogic’s senior hazard scientist Dr. Tom Jeffery pointed out that winds have reached exceptionally high speeds of 50 to 60 mph and beyond. “This not only drives the fires and embers but also inhibits flying the tanker aircraft and helicopters used to suppress the fires,” he shared.

Yet the worse may be to come as the area is likely to struggle to pick up the pieces in the face of limited insurance capacity.

California and wildfire capacity 

As Christopher Hatt, managing director of Lloyd’s facilities and US personal lines at Novatae Risk Group, explained, California's homeowners’ insurance market has long been under pressure. With the financial stability of the state’s FAIR Plan remaining uncertain, this week's wildfire events could exacerbate insurance challenges, making it even harder for homeowners in high-risk areas, like Los Angeles, to obtain adequate coverage.

The situation is worsened further as several major insurers have pulled out of the California market in recent times. AIG announced its exit from the admitted homeowners’ market in 2022, while Chubb and Allstate have also limited their offerings. State Farm exited last year, taking 72,000 home policies with it. This loss of capacity is contributing to an underinsurance issue in the state.

As Hatt noted, “Homeowners may try to fit their coverage into the constraints of the FAIR Plan or other carriers with limit restrictions. A homeowner may know their property is worth $2 million but can only insure it for $1 million. While this may seem fine if no loss occurs, a claim could leave the homeowner undercompensated.”

The role of the E&S market

Traditionally, the excess and surplus market has been seen as a ‘market of last resort’, but as wildfires continue to plague California the situation may be changing. "It often takes [admitted carriers] a long time to adjust, so their only options are to try to turn things around or gradually pull out, which is where the E&S market steps in," Hatt said. He noted that the E&S market is more nimble, able to offer bespoke forms, adjust rates, and change deductibles quickly.

Considering the ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles, Hatt shared that the E&S market could play an increasingly essential role in providing wildfire insurance. However, he also anticipates a continued retreat of insurers from California, particularly in light of the rapid escalation of the Palisades fires within the past 24 hours, and despite Mercury’s recent re-entry.

Tips for wildfire preparedness   

In 2023, CoreLogic conducted a study in Paradise, California, to evaluate how mitigation measures, such as home hardening, zoning reforms, and external buffers, could reduce losses from wildfires. Jon Schneyer explained, “We found that if all homeowners implemented these individual mitigation practices, it could save homeowners about 53% on their insurance premiums. Mitigation not only reduces risk, but it also puts money back into homeowners’ pockets.”

In line with this, Joe Turcotte, EVP of insurance at First Onsite, shared several wildfire preparedness tips that brokers can pass on to clients in high-risk areas:

Stay informed: Monitor news agencies and local authorities for updates.

Be prepared to evacuate: Keep a full tank of gas, ‘go bags,’ and an action plan in place.

Know Your evacuation route: Plan your destination and be aware of potential traffic issues.

Seal your home: Close all doors and windows to minimize smoke infiltration.

Create defensible space: Remove combustible materials such as debris, branches, leaves, firewood, and lawn furniture. Consider using fire-resistant plants around your property.

Secure important items: Store valuable documents like passports and jewelry in a fireproof safe.

Do not fight fires: Avoid attempting to extinguish fires or wet your home; evacuation is safer.

“Ultimately, there is nothing most homeowners can do to stop a wildfire from hitting their home, but these preparation steps can have a massive impact on how devasting it will be,” Turcotte said.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, C-Man said:

The Pampa fire was almost a year ago (Feb). A colleague of mine may or may not insure Boone Pickens' old ranch that suffered a massive loss due to that wildfire. Massive. Then, when that area got massive rain event this summer (???), some of those same properties on that ranch were flooded because all the vegetation and infrastructure that burned away in the wildfire weren't there to direct the water runoff like it had previously. The electric company is gonna (maybe it has) get turbo-fucked by Chubb and the state on that deal.

 

24 minutes ago, C-Man said:

It depends on the carrier and it depends on the policy. But, generally, speaking they're not cheaper than admitted policies simply because they're bigger risks for carriers.

Here's another real world example. College buddy has been a client for quite a few years. Lives In North Dallas. Home is insured for $2.5M or so. Was with Nationwide Private Client at a great rate all these years. NWPC decided to end their HNW practice all over the country. Their pricing was superb. We ran all the traps. They had a hail claim and a couple of auto claims. His twin boys are about to turn 16. Yikes. Anyway, the only solution we could find was with Vault's E&S (Excess & Surplus -- non-admitted) program. Vault is a HNW carrier that is only offering E&S policies in Texas now (AIG has rebranded to Private Client Select and is doing the same thing). Great policy that was still broader than anything the middle market or direct writers could offer. Chubb declined. Cincinnati declined. Berkley One's min is $5M now, PURE's is $3M His expiring premium was around $10K -- a unicorn, I know. Vault's offer was $35K. They went to USAA -- and we will try and get them back next year. It sucks.

This is why I like this board.  While there might be boards with more total people, this board has SME's that know their shit.  

Other boards have firefighting "experts" who just weeks ago were drone "experts" convinced that every light going into Newark was an alien.

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45 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Goats. Let me know when you send the check.

 

41 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

that's what the Getty does. 

Arlington, just a couple of days ago: https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/arlington-puts-goats-to-work-to-eradicate-invasive-shrub/3734403/

Arlington puts goats to work to eradicate invasive shrub

300 goats are eating their way through an overgrown area of Randol Mill Park in Arlington.

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59 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

This is why I like this board.  While there might be boards with more total people, this board has SME's that know their shit.  

Other boards have firefighting "experts" who just weeks ago were drone "experts" convinced that every light going into Newark was an alien.

We have both in spades.  You apparently missed our drone thread.

Edited by Beau Vine
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1 minute ago, C-Man said:

 

Arlington, just a couple of days ago: https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/arlington-puts-goats-to-work-to-eradicate-invasive-shrub/3734403/

Arlington puts goats to work to eradicate invasive shrub

300 goats are eating their way through an overgrown area of Randol Mill Park in Arlington.

It makes sense.  Ranchers have known this for decades.  Hell, the old boy near us reclaimed a bunch of overgrown ranchland with a bunch of scraggly old goats.  Looks like a bomb went off after a few days.  

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51 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Goats. Let me know when you send the check.

Pebble beach does this too.  It is ingenious.  We’re lucky this year was relatively moist but when you have a forest in your back yard you should expect fires.  Clearing, controlled burns, and other management is required and sometimes shit happens.  
 

Regarding water systems and fire fighting; potable water systems are not required to have fire fighting ability under design rules, it’s an optional feature that many jurisdictions incorporate.  The fire code requires x hours and x gallons per minute based on building size and construction.  A typical water system may only have a few hours of storage for fire fighting.  Something of this magnitude is way too much demand for water systems designed  to deliver domestic pressure and fight structure fires.

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A reminder that I'll post more than once in this thread...

If you want to donate money to the relief effort of this terrible tragedy, do not under any circumstances donate through the Red Cross.

Please find a local organization via social media or friends to assist.

 

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Goats are great.  Low maintenance.  Eat almost everything (except bull nettle and tin cans).  Our herd cleared 15 acres of raw land scrub/yaupon/etc., allowing for much easier work to get dry fuel cut and piled/mulched.

Occasionally, one would get their horns stuck in the fence overnight and coyotes would get a free buffet.  Wandering up to a find a head sticking through a fence attached to a spinal column covered in viscera was metal af.

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