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Tariff wars, they have began


Wally Fairway

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump can’t let someone retaliate so what his is next move? Bump up the Canadian tariffs? Close the Canadian borders and stop flights? Deport all Canadians? We know one thing is that he can’t do anything to lower the temperature.

he’s gonna make nba teams trade superstars at random. 

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5 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

ok, i know it sounds stupid to look for logic or reason in anything he does, but i have an honest question.

he wants to do a bunch of terrible shit, we get it. he did terrible shit during his first term, or at least tried to. but the only thing he seemed to care about was the economy. now to him, the economy is mostly the stock market with a splash of black employment numbers, but whatever. it's all he fucking talks about.

so if you're trump, and you can do most of your terrible shit without it affecting the economy (disabling govt agencies, pursuing your perceived political enemies, tax cuts for billionaire friends in exchange for whatever the fuck), then why would you do something like this that directly impacts (a) the actual economy and (b) how americans react to the economy (lower wages, layoffs, higher prices, gas, groceries).

i mean, the economy/stock market was in good shape. and even if biden did most of the heavy lifting post-covid, trump would've taken credit for it anyway, so why not just keep it humming and brag about it? that's what he did for 3 years after obama. all trump cares about is people thinking he's great and thinking he's smart and the best at everything. if the economy was good, he could've played golf 4x a week and spent the other days truthing about the dow.

so the question, and i'm not looking for answers like "because he's a dipshit moron", why do this?

is it to say we're not dependent on any other nations and he thinks that makes him a hero? is it because he (and those around him) genuinely don't understand how it works? and even if they don't, he's outwardly saying it's going to be bad for a while and people will understand. or is he just going full putin and trying to build a moat and fuck everybody over except him? i know the last one seems like the obvious answer, but he's way more fragile snowflake who seeks approval than he is putin strongman who rules with an iron fist. 

i'll hang up and listen.

This is easy. Create crises. Then “solve” these crises by EO. The rubes eat it up and you keep consolidating power in the executive branch. 

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5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trudeau should rename the Gulf of America to the Gulf of Canada, and force Google Maps to display it.

Not like change lakes Erie, Huron and Superior; and personally I'm hoping they don't cut  the grid. 

But as that great American once said "Stupid is as Stupid does"

 

Then again, it's only about an hours move for me, that is if Canada doesn't sit their border

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2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

image.thumb.png.bede2d1f47915471f086e5c7c18c9e1c.png

If gas prices go up or one grocery item, Trump will paint Trudeau like a cartel leader killing Americans and raising prices. Trump can’t back down, so if Canada can’t be the mature one, this all ends badly.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Not like change lakes Erie, Huron and Superior; and personally I'm hoping they don't cut  the grid. 

But as that great American once said "Stupid is as Stupid does"

 

Then again, it's only about an hours move for me, that is if Canada doesn't sit their border

I just watched the last episode of Handsmaid Tale last night.  The episode with the Canadians protesting/getting violent with Americans and deporting them on trains.  For awhile  I was unsure if I was watching live  news.

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There is a non-zero chance that Trump has already spoken to Hegseth about an eventual invasion of Canada and you might as well take Greenland at the same time.

i could imagine Hegseth asking the Joint Chiefs to see existing military options to invade and occupy Canada. And the top brass looks at him like what are you talking about? Existing plans?

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I forget who posted the link of Abbot boasting about how Texas' economy is bigger than Mexico's, so Bring It ONNN, Mesco!

Stuff like that has gotta be good for a 30% popularity bump for Sheinbaum.

Further, regardless of the numbers, if they frame it as a Texas-Mexico trade war, OK. I predict Mexico could lose ten times the money and it'd be Texas that'd be the first to howl.

Meanwhile in Alabama we'll have Katie Britt licking up whatever oozes out of Tuberville's ear, the car factory gridlock will be because of Woke Ghey Outside Agitators, and we'll probably accidentally make money off pulpwood shortages.

So damn glad that years ago I intentionally bought lots of stocks that cater to stupid people.

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11 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

Considering Season 3 GIF by Portlandia

Yeah, he cares very much what certain people think of him.  That includes those as wealthy or wealthier than him and those that run bigger businesses than him.

He has to vilify those that don't adore him.  And he has to do that because the adoration is what it's all about.  Adoration is intrinsic to him.

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12 hours ago, B00M said:

Canada subreddit going off about boycotting America, fuck Americans, etc… what kind of fucking idiot creates enemies out of allies?

Guess I will need to postpone my trips to Quebec City and Jasper. 

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7 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

 

Meanwhile in Alabama we'll have Katie Britt licking up whatever oozes out of Tuberville's ear, the car factory gridlock will be because of Woke Ghey Outside Agitators, and we'll probably accidentally make money off pulpwood shortages.

 

Man, if Trump doesn’t turn those federal science grant dollars back on pretty soon, the Birmingham economy is going to get very real, very quick. 

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1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Hopefully Trudeau doesn’t go overboard with retaliating by shutting down electricity to the states that depend on Canada. That could flip this to a hot war because then Canada would be screwing with the US national security.

Why wouldn’t he do that? The US is making it clear that Canada is no longer an ally.

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10 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

I forget who posted the link of Abbot boasting about how Texas' economy is bigger than Mexico's, so Bring It ONNN, Mesco!

Stuff like that has gotta be good for a 30% popularity bump for Sheinbaum.

Further, regardless of the numbers, if they frame it as a Texas-Mexico trade war, OK. I predict Mexico could lose ten times the money and it'd be Texas that'd be the first to howl.

Meanwhile in Alabama we'll have Katie Britt licking up whatever oozes out of Tuberville's ear, the car factory gridlock will be because of Woke Ghey Outside Agitators, and we'll probably accidentally make money off pulpwood shortages.

So damn glad that years ago I intentionally bought lots of stocks that cater to stupid people.

Let’s see how big the Texas economy is when it’s only white people working. 

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3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Hopefully Trudeau doesn’t go overboard with retaliating by shutting down electricity to the states that depend on Canada. That could flip this to a hot war because then Canada would be screwing with the US national security.

Fuck em. I hope they do. 

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5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Hopefully Trudeau doesn’t go overboard with retaliating by shutting down electricity to the states that depend on Canada. That could flip this to a hot war because then Canada would be screwing with the US national security.

More so than Elon Musk already is?

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12 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

I forget who posted the link of Abbot boasting about how Texas' economy is bigger than Mexico's, so Bring It ONNN, Mesco!

Stuff like that has gotta be good for a 30% popularity bump for Sheinbaum.

Further, regardless of the numbers, if they frame it as a Texas-Mexico trade war, OK. I predict Mexico could lose ten times the money and it'd be Texas that'd be the first to howl.

Meanwhile in Alabama we'll have Katie Britt licking up whatever oozes out of Tuberville's ear, the car factory gridlock will be because of Woke Ghey Outside Agitators, and we'll probably accidentally make money off pulpwood shortages.

So damn glad that years ago I intentionally bought lots of stocks that cater to stupid people.

Hey can you share the stocks you bought?  I just asked my broker to “buy some of the Vanguard Moron ETF” but he seemed puzzled.

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Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don’t disagree.

i wonder what the NATO contingency is when two members fight each other? Does Europe just stay out of it.

My question as well. 
Obviously we have the most robust military and defense in the history of the world but we pretend these rest of NATO is playing with hot wheels. The only threat to the rest of nato would be China.

Basically I don’t see a reason why they wouldn’t side with Canada and tell the US to enjoy the Make America Great Depression Again.

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6 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

My question as well. 
Obviously we have the most robust military and defense in the history of the world but we pretend these rest of NATO is playing with hot wheels. The only threat to the rest of nato would be China.

Basically I don’t see a reason why they wouldn’t side with Canada and tell the US to enjoy the Make America Great Depression Again.

Europe has much stronger memories of a previous dictator growing into a much larger problem because he wasn’t taken care of early enough. 

I know talk of a hot war is premature because I believe that Canada would eventually lower the temps by giving Trump something.

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9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Man, if Trump doesn’t turn those federal science grant dollars back on pretty soon, the Birmingham economy is going to get very real, very quick. 

There's almost a mental forcefield around UAB that keeps the banjos at bay. And by banjos, I don't mean actual banjos, which are cool as hell. I mean auto-tuned hot-pants cold-beer dirt-road mah-truck. Even a routine visit feels like just walking around a normal city, but off in the distance you'll hear raptors testing the perimeter.

At this point, if it goes down, I feel like my best move is to sit up in bed, Jim Bowie style

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15 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Hey can you share the stocks you bought?  I just asked my broker to “buy some of the Vanguard Moron ETF” but he seemed puzzled.

Back during the Buy Moron project, I picked up WMT, MCD, and HOG specifically for that. Sold HOG when it went up 70%, kept the other two.

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56 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Hopefully Trudeau doesn’t go overboard with retaliating by shutting down electricity to the states that depend on Canada. That could flip this to a hot war because then Canada would be screwing with the US national security.

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-canada-tariffs-reaction-trudeau-1.7448263

Addressing both Canadians and Americans on Saturday night, at one of the most fraught moments in the history of relations between Canada and the United States, Justin Trudeau reminded listeners of John F. Kennedy's words when the late American president addressed Parliament in May 1961.

"Geography has made us neighbours. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies," the prime minister said, quoting Kennedy.

Trudeau did not repeat the next sentence in Kennedy's remarks: "Those whom nature hath so joined together, let no man put asunder."

Perhaps that line would have seemed in this moment like a direct attack on the current American president. But Kennedy's sentiment may have been implied as Trudeau proceeded to recount all of the occasions on which Canadians and Americans have fought together and all of the moments in which Canadians have been there to assist their neighbour.

Together, Trudeau said, Canada and the United States have built the most successful economic, military and security partnership the world has ever seen and a relationship that is the envy of the world.

"Unfortunately, the actions taken today by the White House split us apart instead of bringing us together," Trudeau said as he announced how Canada will hit back at U.S. tariffs.

After announcing Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the coming days will be ‘difficult for Canadians, and they’ll be difficult for Americans.’ Trudeau said Canada will levy a 25 per cent tariff on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on most Canadian goods.

The depth and duration of the split remains to be seen. In the short term, it could be very difficult — not least for those whose jobs and livelihoods are now threatened. And at an anxious moment for the country, Trudeau seemed intent on both pulling Canadians together and preparing them for a significant struggle: "There are many ways for you to do your part," he said.

But even if this rupture is somehow patched over relatively quickly, it's easy to imagine how this could leave the sort of lasting scars that change for the long-term the relationship between two nations that nature hath joined together.
How did we get here?

The United States has now commenced a trade war against its closest ally and trading partner. And there is much to consider about what comes next. But it's also worth reviewing how we got here.

On Nov. 5, Americans chose Donald Trump to be their next president. Twenty days later, Trump announced, via a post to his own social-media platform, that he would apply a 25 per cent tariff to all products imported into the United States from Canada and Mexico — a response, he claimed, to the fact that people and illegal drugs were entering the United States from those two countries.

At least in the case of Canada, this was an irrational justification. Seizures of fentanyl at America's northern border represented 0.08 per cent of all fentanyl seized by American officials in the last fiscal year. The number of people entering the United States through Canada has also been a fraction of the total number of people entering via Mexico.

Regardless, preventing unwanted people and things from entering the United States is first and foremost the responsibility of the United States. If the U.S. believes it is justified in levying tariffs in this case, then Canadian officials would presumably have grounds to levy tariffs in response to the flow of illegal firearms that enter this country through the United States.

Canadian officials were nonetheless obliged — both political and practically — to take Trump's stated concerns seriously. And so they did. New resources were marshalled and new commitments to cross-border co-operation were made. By the federal government's estimate, the total package of measures will cost $1.3 billion.

But either it wasn't enough or it simply didn't matter.

Paul Krugman, the Nobel-winning economist and commentator, suggested this week that the use of fentanyl to justify this trade war was akin to a previous American administration's claims of "weapons of mass destruction" as a pretext to launch an invasion of Iraq in 2003.

"It's just a plausible-sounding reason for a president to do what he wanted to do for other reasons — George W. Bush wanted a splendid little war, Donald Trump just wants to impose tariffs and assert dominance," Krugman wrote.
Why does Trump want to put tariffs on Canada?

It can't be said that Trump is responding to some great desire on the part of Americans to get tough on Canadian-made products. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in January found just 37 per cent of Americans support a new tax on Canadian goods. Abacus Data similarly found that just 28 per cent of Americans think a 25 per cent tariff is a "good idea."

The White House referred to the tariffs as "leverage" on Saturday. But it's unclear what more the United States wants. And whatever his stated concerns about fentanyl, Trump may more profoundly view tariffs as a way to raise revenue for a federal government that is already running a deficit of $1.8 trillion US, and as a method to force companies to manufacture products within the United States.

"We were at our richest from 1870 to 1913," Trump said on Friday. "That's when we were a tariff country."

At least as measured by GDP, it's hard to see how the United States was richer at the dawn of the 20th century. But returning to the world of 1913 would mean reversing nearly a century of increasing economic integration between Canada and the United States — integration that was formalized by a succession of free-trade deals, the most recent of which was negotiated, signed and celebrated by Trump himself just over six years ago.

At the very least, Trump has seemingly now sent the message to Canadian leaders — and leaders in many other countries — that America is no longer to be regarded as a reliable ally or trading partner. He seems to believe America's economic power exists to be wielded against others, both foes and friends, with no concern for either America's international relationships or the welfare of citizens in other countries.
What will this do to the Canadian psyche?

Trudeau said he trusts the American people and doesn't believe they wake up wanting to pick a fight with Canada. And perhaps the president's continued focus on fentanyl offers a way out. Perhaps Canadian officials can continue to implement measures related to the border and then Trump can claim victory and everyone can go back to their corners. At least until the next tariff is threatened.

But what of the Canadian political psyche? Canadians had largely overcome the fears of previous decades and grown comfortable with closer economic integration with the United States. Fears of American cultural influence had also receded. At least until now.

Fans at an Ottawa Senators game on Saturday night booed the American national anthem. In addition to the $155 billion in counter-tariffs announced by Trudeau on Saturday night, Nova Scotia announced that highway tolls would be increased on American trucks and American alcohol would be pulled off the province's store shelves. British Columbia announced that the province would no longer sell alcohol from "red states" — that is, American states that voted for Trump last November.

Trudeau spoke of preserving the relationship between Canada and the United States and "necessity" and "economics" may ultimately carry the day. But Trudeau also called on Canadians to "choose Canada" — in their day-to-day purchases and even in their choice of where to vacation.

If nothing else, Trump's aggression may be a shot in the arm for Canadian patriotism.

"Canada is home to bountiful resources, breathtaking beauty, and a proud people who've come from every corner of the globe to forge a nation with a unique identity worth embracing and celebrating," Trudeau said on Saturday night.

Trudeau finished his prepared remarks with "Vive le Canada," a trademark rallying cry of former prime minister Jean Chrétien.

Chrétien lived through some of the seminal moments in the making of modern Canada — the repatriation of the constitution, the Quebec referendums of 1980 and 1995 — and his last great political act as prime minister was refusing to go along with the American invasion of Iraq.

For Canadians, going our own way may be newly back in fashion.

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/canada-european-union-1.7446400

With its U.S. alliance under pressure, could Canada join the EU?
As tensions with U.S. grow, some commentators wonder about looking to Europe
John Last · CBC News · Posted: Feb 02, 2025 3:00 AM CST | Last Updated: 7 hours ago

Relations between Canada and the U.S. are coming under serious pressure — and that has some commentators offering an unlikely — though not impossible — solution.

What if Canada joined the European Union?

Even before U.S. President Donald Trump threatened Canadians with "economic force" if they did not want to become a "51st state," Stanley Pignal, a columnist with The Economist, floated the idea of the country switching teams.

"As it turns out," he wrote, "both Europe and Canada may be in the market for upgraded alliances."

Pignal's column in early January was followed by a small flurry of online excitement: A former spokesperson for the Canadian Embassy in Paris endorsed the idea, as did one head of Britain's pro-EU movement. Even a former German foreign minister seemed to jump on board.

"Joke, rant, real proposal? It's hard to tell," read one column in the Montreal daily La Presse. "[But] with an American president now outright hostile to Canada, a rapprochement with Europe would be far from senseless."

But could it really happen?

Is joining the EU possible?

Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union opens membership to "any European state which respects and is committed to promoting human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities."

What it doesn't do is define European.

"What constitutes a European country is left to political decision-making," said Dimitrios Argyroulis, a researcher at the Institute of European studies at the Université Libre de Bruxelles in Belgium.

A country outside Europe has only tried to join once before. In 1987, Morocco was rejected on the basis that it was not a "European country."

But Canada may be different. In his column, Pignal relies on the idea that Canadians are "honorary Europeans" on account of their "shared values" — something both governments have frequently highlighted.

Canadians, they say, are generally likely to support gun control, oppose the death penalty and back a strong welfare state that regulates the free market — much like Europeans.

Canadian political and legal institutions are also modelled on European precedents, and more than half of Canadians identify as European in ancestry.

There could also be some perks for both sides to a closer union. As Pignal suggests, Canada could offer the EU access to vast reserves of strategic resources much rarer on the continent, like rare earth minerals and fossil fuels.

Canada, meanwhile, might benefit from access to Europe's large and skilled labour market — and reduce its dependence on the U.S. and its volatile politics.

"Ottawa must prepare for a world where Washington is less reliable," said Teona Lavrelashvili, a visiting fellow at the Martens Centre, an EU think-tank in Brussels. "Strengthening engagement with Europe … is not just strategic, but essential."
Could it actually happen?

So it's legally possible, and even has some upsides — but is it actually likely?

Don't hold your breath.

"It's not going to happen," said Steven Blockmans, a senior fellow at the Center for European Studies in Brussels.

The European Union already has a long waiting list: 10 candidates, including some, like Bosnia-Herzegovina, that have been waiting for decades.

"Think of the optics," said Maria Garcia, a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Bath in England. "If you've got very delayed candidacies … with these eastern countries that are actually in Europe, can you really open it up to countries outside it?"

A recent survey from the Martens Centre found just 38 per cent of EU residents want more members — and more than 80 per cent said they should come from inside Europe.

As Europe adds more members, it also gets harder to find agreement among them on who should be let in. Those decisions — along with policies on touchy subjects like security and immigration — are made by consensus.

"They're having a hard time keeping it together as it is," said Ruben Zaiotti, director of the Jean Monnet European Union Centre of Excellence at Dalhousie University in Halifax. "So envisioning further expansion — beyond those already lined up — I don't see enough energy to achieve that goal, or even to start the process."
More co-operation?

More likely than full membership for Canada, Zaiotti said, is "an advanced form of co-operation."

According to Michael Emerson, a former EU ambassador to Russia at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, that could take the form of "a maximal deepening of the relationship on all accounts: political, economic, cultural and security."

Or the EU could seek to create whole new alliances.

"One could imagine a … loose multilateral grouping of the like-minded, without the U.S.," Emerson wrote in an email. "Then all democratic Europe, plus the rest of the non-U.S. OECD, might develop a collective diplomatic stance, asserting 'our' model of an enlightened West."

The EU already has some capacity to establish this kind of relationship. Its concept of the "European neighbourhood" allowed it to enter into resource-sharing partnerships with Armenia and Tunisia that go beyond typical trade agreements.

Some states, like Norway, are members of the European Economic Area, a free trade bloc, without being members of the EU. Others are full members but not part of the Schengen Agreement, which allows visa-free travel, or the Eurozone, which shares a currency and central bank.

Canada already participates in Horizon Europe, an EU-funded research grant program worth more than $140 billion, alongside other non-European states like New Zealand.

"It signals a new chapter in our relationship with the EU," said François-Philippe Champagne, Canada's science minister, when signing the agreement last year.

EU President Ursula von der Leyen, meanwhile, minced no words about the benefits for Europe. Canada is "the only country in the Western hemisphere with all the raw materials required for lithium batteries," she said — a key strategic resource as Europe shifts to green technology. "So I would say that this is a perfect match."

In this way, at least, European leaders appear open to expanding the definition of Europe — creating "a European onion, instead of a European Union," as Blockmans puts it.

"If there is any shift in EU thinking, it would likely be toward deepening [these] strategic partnerships rather than reimagining the EU as a geographically unlimited alliance," said Lavrelashvili.
You don't pick your friends

Of course, "it's still going to be very difficult for Canada … to separate themselves from America," Garcia said.

Its biggest trading partner cannot be replaced overnight — nor would defending Canadian (or European) territory be easy without American support.

"Europe is not a full substitute for the United States," Lavrelashvili said.

That's if Canadians want a substitute.

Robert Finbow, deputy director of the Jean Monnet Centre at Dalhousie, said Canada's provinces seldom agree on EU priorities like climate or agricultural policy — with some seemingly reluctant to challenge Trump in a trade dispute.

Canadian businesses, meanwhile "have always relied on that ready [American] connection for profitability, and rarely taken alternate partners seriously enough," he said.

There's also the risk that any move to deepen ties with Europe could provoke more American aggression.

"It would increase their feeling that the EU is an antagonist and adversary, not an ally," said Argyroulis. "Just imagine the feeling of those people who are obsessed with border control to realize that they might share borders with the European Union."

There's another problem, too. If Canada was looking to Europe to escape from Trump-style politics, it might be barking up the wrong tree.

Later this month, there will be elections in Germany, a key EU member state, where the far-right, Elon Musk-endorsed Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has been moving up in the polls.

Germans are only joining voters in Italy, Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Finland, Poland, Norway, the Netherlands and France, who have granted Trump-style politicians public support or key power positions in government over the past few years.

"Canada can no longer take its close ties with Europe for granted," said Lavrelashvili.

All to say, Canadians and Europe may have some shared values — but in this new political era, Europe and Trump may share more values still.

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1 hour ago, Hawndoh said:

Canada has like 1/5 of the worlds fresh water. We should do everything possible to remain their best friends.

You mean, the US is about to capture and control 1/5 of the world’s fresh water.  
 

And then foul it all up while drilling for oil and mining for diamonds. 

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10 hours ago, Slacks said:

Literally had a Black Swan conversation with an aggy who admitted to voting for Trump because they believe it will be great for the stock market (that was great under Biden) and their almost 8 figure position in $FNMA and $FMCC.

I'm the end, they said, "Well fuck it, if it all fails, we'll have other problems."

Selfawarewolves gonna start cheering for leopards. Watch.

 

Wait, an almost 8 figure position in Fannie and Freddie?  As an individual?  When did they take this position pre or post 2008?  

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Europe has much stronger memories of a previous dictator growing into a much larger problem because he wasn’t taken care of early enough. 
I know talk of a hot war is premature because I believe that Canada would eventually lower the temps by giving Trump something.
Orange Appeasement.
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