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Posted
Just now, 'stache said:

They didn’t start this, the pain is going to happen either way, why capitulate? The optics of bowing down to a US president who is off the fucking rails and who has cause the country to be an international pariah doesn’t seem worth the costs which again are going to happen either way. It might also gain them some favor with the new world order where the US is on the wrong side of civilized societies.

Do you study much on what's going on there? I'm not sure negotiating in earnest is "capitulating", now if they just cave and give into whatever the fuck Trump tells them that's different. 

The China thing has been brewing for a while, it's not like trump just cranked the stove, China has been an issue that everyone has been kicking the can down the road on because it's basically state sanctioned slavery. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Think Tim Robinson GIF by NETFLIX

I'm saying that is likely a bad play, if embargos happen and we tell the world to pick sides, I don't think people are gonna pick china even with trump the lunatic in charge. It would be a massive gamble that China would magically convert everyone who loathes doing business with them in a snap call. 

I've been sour on China and cheap Walmart shit for quite some time now, it was always going to end this way. 

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Posted
Just now, immamac said:

Do you study much on what's going on there? I'm not sure negotiating in earnest is "capitulating", now if they just cave and give into whatever the fuck Trump tells them that's different. 

The China thing has been brewing for a while, it's not like trump just cranked the stove, China has been an issue that everyone has been kicking the can down the road on because it's basically state sanctioned slavery. 

Well yeah, targeted tariffs against China due to unfair competition through human rights abuses and other problematic things is legitimate economic policy discussion (ie limited forms of protectionism). That’s what tariffs have been for about the last century. That’s not what this is about, at all, and they shouldn’t give a fucking inch until some adults are at the table.

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Posted
1 minute ago, immamac said:

It would be a massive gamble that China would magically convert everyone who loathes doing business with them in a snap call. 

All China has to do is "not be an erratic and insane fucking asshole."  Seriously.  That's the play.  They don't have to be trustworthy.  They just have to be "the most trustworthy large economy that others can deal with."  And they do that by simply....not being the US.  China has a massive opportunity right now.  Helping us destroy ourselves even more is a great long-term play for China, which actually CAN weather some short term pain for long-term gain (market share, relative credibility, reliability, etc.).

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Posted
1 minute ago, 'stache said:

Well yeah, targeted tariffs against China due to unfair competition through human rights abuses and other problematic things is legitimate economic policy discussion (ie limited forms of protectionism). That’s what tariffs have been for about the last century. That’s not what this is about, at all, and they shouldn’t give a fucking inch until some adults are at the table.

no they haven't, none of the tariffs against China have mattered at all except for shit like BYD/EV. It's all talking points to score points with the rubes. China has been doing what Trump is doing now for the better part of 20 years, blatantly stupid shit, they have a different position on "oligarchy" and do things like wipe out their billionaires so they don't turn into Elon Musk. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

All China has to do is "not be an erratic and insane fucking asshole."  Seriously.  That's the play.  They don't have to be trustworthy.  They just have to be "the most trustworthy large economy that others can deal with."  And they do that by simply....not being the US.  China has a massive opportunity right now.  Helping us destroy ourselves even more is a great long-term play for China, which actually CAN weather some short term pain for long-term gain (market share, relative credibility, reliability, etc.).

except that China has been erratic and insane for the entire time, people just dealt with it because it was literally "slaves over there". 

I'm not defending Trump or the US here, I'm saying I don't understand the play here, China isn't necessarily in a position of strength here and puffery for your own people only goes so far. While the air is coming out of the sails of the US because there's a massive amount of uncertainty and a loss of confidence in the stability, it's still a completely different level of fuckery in China.

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Posted
1 minute ago, immamac said:

no they haven't, none of the tariffs against China have mattered at all except for shit like BYD/EV. It's all talking points to score points with the rubes. China has been doing what Trump is doing now for the better part of 20 years, blatantly stupid shit, they have a different position on "oligarchy" and do things like wipe out their billionaires so they don't turn into Elon Musk. 

I don’t disagree that past administrations (or more accurately Congresses) should have been much stronger against China through tariffs and otherwise. But again, that’s not what this is about, and I can guarantee you that Xi has actual competent people around him while dotard does not and is just being performative. Let’s suppose they were open to negotiation on legitimate topics, why would they have any trust if an agreement was reached? We’ve already shown that we just go back and forth on this shit, see Canada and Mexico.

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Posted

The only miscalculations any foreign nation, including China, could make is underestimating how stupid the next decision Trump makes will be. Take the over every time and you'll come out way ahead.

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Posted
Just now, 'stache said:

I don’t disagree that past administrations (or more accurately Congresses) should have been much stronger against China through tariffs and otherwise. But again, that’s not what this is about, and I can guarantee you that Xi has actual competent people around him while dotard does not and is just being performative. Let’s suppose they were open to negotiation on legitimate topics, why would they have any trust if an agreement was reached? We’ve already shown that we just go back and forth on this shit, see Canada and Mexico.

blanket retaliatory tariffs don't take a room full of PhD's to figure out. Xi is just as much a punk bitch as Trump, they are two megalomaniacs doing incredibly stupid shit - do not equate Xi to some fucking genius or put him on a pedestal. He's a complete political demon who doesn't really know jack shit about being a superpower and built China up on slave labor and IP theft. 

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Posted
14 minutes ago, immamac said:

except that China has been erratic and insane for the entire time, people just dealt with it because it was literally "slaves over there". 

China is not erratic and insane.  China is asshole.  Strategic asshole, but not insane and unpredictable asshole.  China is Houston drivers: homicidal, assholish, but with a purpose -- hauling ass from point A to point B at all times.  The US under Trump is Austin drivers: will stop in the middle lane of the freeway because they just now decided their exit is the one three lanes over.

I much prefer dealing with Houston drivers, because "strategic homicidal asshole" is predictable, and that allows ME to drive strategically.

15 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Let’s suppose they were open to negotiation on legitimate topics, why would they have any trust if an agreement was reached? We’ve already shown that we just go back and forth on this shit, see Canada and Mexico.

This also offers opportunity.  If everyone knows that "deals" with Trump are just words you say to make his ego feel good, then fuck it, make a "deal" with him, and don't keep it.  What's that, Donnie, you'll drop tariffs on me if I promise to move my shoe factories to the US?  Sure thing.  I am commissioning a blue-ribbon panel to study the proper formation and composition of the committee to evaluate how to make that happen, with a plan to be developed in the next 4 years.

Walla.  Trump proclaims victory, and he brought manufacturing back.  And I go about my business as usual, except maybe I set up some pointless panel to issue periodic reports with pretty pictures and graphs to make Trump happy, and those reports mention the "Donald J. Trump Shoe Factory of American Victory" a few times.

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Posted
20 minutes ago, immamac said:

I'm not defending Trump or the US here, I'm saying I don't understand the play here, China isn't necessarily in a position of strength here and puffery for your own people only goes so far. While the air is coming out of the sails of the US because there's a massive amount of uncertainty and a loss of confidence in the stability, it's still a completely different level of fuckery in China.

I mean, IS there? The Chinese system is at least consistent in that you know they're going to act in their best national interests. It may not always be long-term thinking but it has been consistent. 

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

China is not erratic and insane.  China is asshole.  Strategic asshole, but not insane and unpredictable asshole.  China is Houston drivers: homicidal, assholish, but with a purpose -- hauling ass from point A to point B at all times.  The US under Trump is Austin drivers: will stop in the middle lane of the freeway because they just now decided their exit is the one three lanes over.

this is bang-on.

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Posted
23 minutes ago, immamac said:

blanket retaliatory tariffs don't take a room full of PhD's to figure out. Xi is just as much a punk bitch as Trump, they are two megalomaniacs doing incredibly stupid shit - do not equate Xi to some fucking genius or put him on a pedestal. He's a complete political demon who doesn't really know jack shit about being a superpower and built China up on slave labor and IP theft. 

"Blanket retaliatory tarriffs" is our policy as of a few months ago. I think it's absurd to expect the US to be the only country allowed to retaliate. And I agree with Brisket, I don't see Xi as erratic or stupid, they've consistently stocked the shelves of Dollar General and Walmart with cheap shit for decades. They are asshole and I've been in favor of stronger policy against them for years. But imagine if Joe Biden got "tough on China" and shit cardboard furniture at Target went up 10%, Kamala would have lost by a landslide. So I don't blame the lack of policy, especially from the democrats, who the majority of American voters think are responsible for every difficulty in their daily lives.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I don't agree that Uighur labor camps are the engine driving China's economic prosperity.

Not the actual slaves... Please stop being pedantic, you know I'm referring to the terrible labor conditions, pay and oppression that the rest of the world gladly turns a blind eye to because "cheap t shirts, toys and iphones!" 

Posted
1 hour ago, immamac said:

I'm not sure I understand China's play here, also are Taiwan and China regarded as the same for Tariffs? I thought the US treated them differently. The Singapore PM is a smart dude.

image.png.46515386ddab0f2ad79661e4887f179b.png

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Posted
2 minutes ago, immamac said:

Not the actual slaves... Please stop being pedantic, you know I'm referring to the terrible labor conditions, pay and oppression that the rest of the world gladly turns a blind eye to because "cheap t shirts, toys and iphones!" 

I'm beginning to wonder if these conceptions we have of the conditions for workers in China are accurate. A lot of what the US media has said about foreign countries has turned out to be exaggerations or bullshit.

Posted

The entire premise of my posts was "what's China's play here" and everyone is responding like I'm saying the US play is incredible and so awesome lololol

I'm asking wtf is China gonna do, how do we think this plays out and what moves do they have besides "nuh uh" 

Brisket is being productive to the conversation, in trying to frame it to have a productive conversation, not to dig in on a position. 

Just now, chainsaw said:

I'm beginning to wonder if these conceptions we have of the conditions for workers in China are accurate. A lot of what the US media has said about foreign countries has turned out to be exaggerations or bullshit.

Lmao. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, immamac said:

I'm asking wtf is China gonna do, how do we think this plays out and what moves do they have besides "nuh uh" 

China will do two things:

1) Pivot away from the US as a trading partner.

2) Pivot TO the EU and others as a trading partner.  All China has to do in that respect is "not be as shitty and batshit as the US."  And that's a low fucking bar.

Sure, there's some short-term pain for China.  China can bear it, they are much tougher than we (Americans) are, and they play a long game.  And China will have to be friendlier/more favorable than they would like in building new/enhanced trading relationships with others.  So be it, that's short term. Once they get their hooks in, then they can start playing more hard ball . . . 10-20 years from now.

We are squandering everything.  And I don't use the term "everything" hyperbolically.  I mean, literally everything.  

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, immamac said:

The entire premise of my posts was "what's China's play here" and everyone is responding like I'm saying the US play is incredible and so awesome lololol

Personally, I think they're going to dig in, betting that the Chinese public can withstand more pain over the short term than the American public will tolerate from the Trump regime. Hell, the Chinese tolerated being locked up in their homes with the doors nailed shut. They weren't happy about it, but they mostly complied and eventually got through it. With that example in mind, how did we react to a not nearly so harsh faux "lockdown"? Americans damn well nearly revolted: storming statehouses, attempting to kidnap governors, etc.

If you take that one example into account and consider how Xi and the CCP are plugging that into their decision matrix, they might be making a sound bet.

Edit: Further, just look at our history. A big reason we revolted against the British Empire was over tariffs. 

Edited by bolverk
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Posted
3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm beginning to wonder if these conceptions we have of the conditions for workers in China are accurate. A lot of what the US media has said about foreign countries has turned out to be exaggerations or bullshit.

Don't go down this path, it's pretty much on equal footing with denying the genocide in Gaza. It's not just the US media in this case, the repression of the Uyghurs and various other ethnic/religious minorities in the region has gotten plenty of traction abroad and among various world human rights organizations over the past several years. @immamac is 100% correct here, the forced labor taking place there is a major driver of the cheap goods that China brings to the global market.

The main issue is that, due to the heavy handedness of Chinese internet censorship, it is very difficult for information to filter out beyond China's borders regarding what exactly is going on there.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

China will do two things:

1) Pivot away from the US as a trading partner.

2) Pivot TO the EU and others as a trading partner.  All China has to do in that respect is "not be as shitty and batshit as the US."  And that's a low fucking bar.

Sure, there's some short-term pain for China.  China can bear it, they are much tougher than we (Americans) are, and they play a long game.  And China will have to be friendlier/more favorable than they would like in building new/enhanced trading relationships with others.  So be it, that's short term. Once they get their hooks in, then they can start playing more hard ball . . . 10-20 years from now.

We are squandering everything.  And I don't use the term "everything" hyperbolically.  I mean, literally everything.  

While I understand the sentiment, I don't think this is the case as American IP is pretty strong and still mainly resides with US Based companies/entities. It was part of the design of manufacturing globally. Do we want to make stuff in the US? I think that may just be idiot talk - Do we want to decouple nearly entirely from China, because they have shown that they are actually what the Koreans, Japanese and rest of Asia have known for Millenia? Well, yeah. 

I want to reiterate that I think that it's impossible to understate how stupid American Economic Policy (yes, we know what it's driven by right now) is, but there are actually mechanisms in place that make it extremely difficult for the rest of the world to do what they need to do without the US and it's inventions. 

It's kinda like the Military industrial complex, No one is gonna buy from fucking china - now they may not buy from the US either because it's gotten squirrely, but their only other option is to develop in house and that takes WAR or decades to get back to par with what the US has to offer, and so the process of weaning off will take a while and be fairly painful. 

Posted
31 minutes ago, immamac said:

The entire premise of my posts was "what's China's play here" and everyone is responding like I'm saying the US play is incredible and so awesome lololol

I'm asking wtf is China gonna do, how do we think this plays out and what moves do they have besides "nuh uh" 

Brisket is being productive to the conversation, in trying to frame it to have a productive conversation, not to dig in on a position. 

Lmao. 

Thought I was reading Derka for a second.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Don't go down this path, it's pretty much on equal footing with denying the genocide in Gaza.

I'm not denying what they've done to the Uighurs. There are plenty of legitimate problems with the CCP. What I'm questioning is whether the oppression of disfavored groups fully explains China's economic successes. We have this idea that it's full of third world sweatshops and inhumane labor conditions, and that's the part that seems more like "trust me bro" rather than something that has been corroborated. These re-education camps number like 2 million people (way too many) while China has a population over 1 billion and the vast majority of its factory workers are not in those camps.

The third world sweatshops do exist, but they're in places like Bangladesh.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, immamac said:

but their only other option is to develop in house and that takes WAR or decades to get back to par with what the US has to offer, and so the process of weaning off will take a while and be fairly painful. 

Yet the US is providing ironclad proof that continuing to depend on the US will be even more painful, maybe fatal.  The objectively interesting and ironic thing is that our idiot leadership is talking about how the US public has to "take its medicine and suffer to get us where we need to be."  They are WRONG with respect to the US, but their actions are making that lesson RIGHT with respect to everyone else.

In 10 years, the entire non-Chinese/Russian aligned world should be flying Eurofighters and Saab aircraft instead of F-35s and such, as just one example.  It's going to take time for European development and production to get there.....but get there they will.  Because it's the only rational choice.  If a choice is painful....but it is the ONLY rational path....then people can and will endure pain.

Our choice, inflicting great pain and much more to come, is completely IRrational.  So nobody is going to join us on that path.

And this:

Quote

The trade war will undoubtedly hurt the Chinese economy. But I honestly don’t think Xi cares. He sees this correctly, as a historic opportunity to destroy U.S. global influence.

We have handed China a gift, and unprecedented opportunity.  They can and will exploit it.

Edited by Brisketexan
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Posted
5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm not denying what they've done to the Uighurs. There are plenty of legitimate problems with the CCP. What I'm questioning is whether the oppression of disfavored groups fully explains China's economic successes. We have this idea that it's full of third world sweatshops and inhumane labor conditions, and that's the part that seems more like "trust me bro" rather than something that has been corroborated. These re-education camps number like 2 million people (way too many) while China has a population over 1 billion and the vast majority of its factory workers are not in those camps.

The third world sweatshops do exist, but they're in places like Bangladesh.

lmao

Posted
7 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm not denying what they've done to the Uighurs. There are plenty of legitimate problems with the CCP. What I'm questioning is whether the oppression of disfavored groups fully explains China's economic successes. We have this idea that it's full of third world sweatshops and inhumane labor conditions, and that's the part that seems more like "trust me bro" rather than something that has been corroborated. These re-education camps number like 2 million people (way too many) while China has a population over 1 billion and the vast majority of its factory workers are not in those camps.

The third world sweatshops do exist, but they're in places like Bangladesh.

No, it doesn't fully explain it at all but it's a big part of it. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

No, it doesn't fully explain it at all but it's a big part of it. 

How big, though? I have my doubts that if every one of those Uighur workers were liberated Chinese manufacturing with collapse overnight. They should be liberated, though, even if it did have those consequences. Slavery is every bit as wrong today as it was during the Civil War.

Posted
No, it doesn't fully explain it at all but it's a big part of it. 

It both is and isn’t. Take the slavery and over-the-top repression out of the mix, and China would have similar market power to what it has now.
But that ship has sailed. The power to use commerce to disentangle from China or get China to alter its way is no longer really available to the rest of the world.
We pissed away everything.
Everything.
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Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


It both is and isn’t. Take the slavery and over-the-top repression out of the mix, and China would have similar market power to what it has now.
But that ship has sailed. The power to use commerce to disentangle from China or get China to alter its way is no longer really available to the rest of the world.
We pissed away everything.
Everything.

I don't even think disentangling from China is a good idea. In my opinion, it's in the best interest of the global economy for the US/Chinese economies to remain as entangled as they are. To me, it's ridiculous to care even a little bit about how much US debt they hold. Who gives a shit?

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Posted
Just now, Brian Fantana said:

I don't even think disentangling from China is a good idea. In my opinion, it's in the best interest of the global economy for the US/Chinese economies to remain as entangled as they are. To me, it's ridiculous to care even a little bit about how much US debt they hold. Who gives a shit?

yeah but people might be laughing at us

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Posted
I don't even think disentangling from China is a good idea. In my opinion, it's in the best interest of the global economy for the US/Chinese economies to remain as entangled as they are. To me, it's ridiculous to care even a little bit about how much US debt they hold. Who gives a shit?

I agree and disagree in part. There are definitely some strategic items on which we should disentangle and reshore (not just re China: see chips, and the CHIPS Act to do so). But when it comes to stitching shoes, and screwing iPhones together and such, that can and should happen elsewhere. Personally, I’d love it if we incentivized more of that happening in Central America, which would help on MANY fronts (easier shipping, less strategic vulnerability, and better employment there reduces immigrant outflow).
But we are doing the opposite of strategic thing here. Everything is as dumb as possible.
FFS, admin mouthpieces are saying BOTH that this approach will bring back manufacturing jobs…and that those factories will be fully automated, with almost no jobs….just so. Fucking. Stupid.
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Posted
8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


I agree and disagree in part. There are definitely some strategic items on which we should disentangle and reshore (not just re China: see chips, and the CHIPS Act to do so). But when it comes to stitching shoes, and screwing iPhones together and such, that can and should happen elsewhere. Personally, I’d love it if we incentivized more of that happening in Central America, which would help on MANY fronts (easier shipping, less strategic vulnerability, and better employment there reduces immigrant outflow).
But we are doing the opposite of strategic thing here. Everything is as dumb as possible.
FFS, admin mouthpieces are saying BOTH that this approach will bring back manufacturing jobs…and that those factories will be fully automated, with almost no jobs….just so. Fucking. Stupid.

Africa is wild how underutilized they are, same as South America. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, immamac said:

Africa is wild how underutilized they are, same as South America. 

To some extent.  Geography and transport creates difficulty.  Central America is ripe for the picking -- actual ports, very close to American ports. Rail lines that already exist.  Internal infrastructure (e.g., reliable power) is lacking....but that's part of the win-win.  Guatemala gets better power supply and more and better jobs - both raising their living standards and removing the incentive to flee north for opportunity.  We get goods assembled/manufactured 1500 miles away, in a country that is small and dependent enough that it CAN'T overly flex its trading partner hand.

There are SMART ways to handle trade.  Declaring "all trade deficits are evil, and we're willing to wreck our economy and the global economy to prove it" is the dumbest thing ever.

We have a $30 trillion GDP.

We have a $1 trillion goods trade deficit (I'm using round numbers....and if I wanted to be ACCURATE, I'd say we only have around a $700 billion deficit, as we run a $278 billion SERVICES SURPLUS, but let's just stick with goods for easy numbers).

That's a 30-1 ratio.  If we were a household with a $90k income, the equivalent would be a $3k "trade deficit" (more spent on goods than our trading partners, like HEB and Lowes, spend on us).  Nevermind the absurdity of saying trade deficits are bad, period.  The amount of destruction we're undertaking for something worth 1/30th of our GDP is insane.  If you looked at any $90k household, and said "so, you spend $3k on goods that you don't get spending back on, leaving you with $87k in income".....the sane answer would be "cool....so what?  And remember, I GET something for the $3k I spend -- groceries, hardware, what have you."  

There's not a single part of this approach that isn't utterly stupid, built on a foundation of stupid, and creating an eternal historical monument to stupid.

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Posted

We import so much shit from China, from consumer electronics, beauty products, clothes, furniture, etc. The reason why we import so much shit from China is because it is cheaper than where we can get it anywhere else. US Consumers are the largest benefactor, by far. Shit is going to get even more expensive. China is gambling that they can endure their hit to their economy longer than US consumers can endure a hit to their wallet. The next election will tell the story of who wins. If there is a wholesale change to Republican seats, China wins because the people voted to exit the tariff dick measuring contest. If there isn't a massive shit in seats, then Trump won and China has to acquiese. 

That's my take anyway.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

China will do two things:

1) Pivot away from the US as a trading partner.

2) Pivot TO the EU and others as a trading partner.  All China has to do in that respect is "not be as shitty and batshit as the US."  And that's a low fucking bar.

Sure, there's some short-term pain for China.  China can bear it, they are much tougher than we (Americans) are, and they play a long game.  And China will have to be friendlier/more favorable than they would like in building new/enhanced trading relationships with others.  So be it, that's short term. Once they get their hooks in, then they can start playing more hard ball . . . 10-20 years from now.

We are squandering everything.  And I don't use the term "everything" hyperbolically.  I mean, literally everything.  

China can't turn to EU for all the potential lost revenues of the US. Full stop.

Even if it could you would then have to overcome the social buying habits of the EU people. Going full Walmart/Dollar General with shit Chinese products including food isn't an overnight shift. Frankly, I wish we cool get the food in their grocery stores. 

Can it offset some, sure, but the pain comes fast. China doesn't want long term economic issues as that causes social unrest. While thats never good anywhere, its terrible in a place like China.

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Posted
26 minutes ago, immamac said:

Africa is wild how underutilized they are, same as South America. 

There is a potential of utilizing South America. 

There is a reason one of the biggest investors in Africa is China. To make it productive it largely has to be run by dictatorship like China. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

We import so much shit from China, from consumer electronics, beauty products, clothes, furniture, etc. The reason why we import so much shit from China is because it is cheaper than where we can get it anywhere else. US Consumers are the largest benefactor, by far. Shit is going to get even more expensive. China is gambling that they can endure their hit to their economy longer than US consumers can endure a hit to their wallet. The next election will tell the story of who wins. If there is a wholesale change to Republican seats, China wins because the people voted to exit the tariff dick measuring contest. If there isn't a massive shit in seats, then Trump won and China has to acquiese. 

That's my take anyway.

The play isn't to help American consumers. It's to help American oligarchs that exploit those consumers. Enshittification out front shoulda told ya.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Captainant said:

The play isn't to help American consumers. It's to help American oligarchs that exploit those consumers. Enshittification out front shoulda told ya.

The consumers will voice with the votes. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

The consumers will voice with the votes. 

200.gif

... you do know how we got into this right? It wasn't a fuckin secret that tariffs were coming - it was a central part of his campaign platform. People just didn't believe that he would go through with it. It's why @Incredulity keeps ducking any talk of tariffs

Edited by Captainant
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Posted
9 minutes ago, Captainant said:

200.gif

... you do know how we got into this right? It wasn't a fuckin secret that tariffs were coming - it was a central part of his campaign platform. People just didn't believe that he would go through with it. It's why @Incredulity keeps ducking any talk of tariffs

That guy sure has disappeared. He's still lurking, as you can see if you hover over his name tag, but I just checked, and he hasn't actually posted since February. Weird. Is he on an extended timeout?

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Posted
1 hour ago, Firemans4Horn said:

 

I don't get this angle. Who is going to replace the US as the global influencer?  If China digs in they will be forced to devalue the yuan taking them out of the equation (again), their economy that just came of the brink of disaster is now again teetering on the brink and will blow up as these tariffs continue. Russia? nope. EU - nope?

I think China knows they have been boxed in and their only play is to try and save face. That is why there are concerns from surrounding countries that they are getting backed into a corner that only a war/conflct will get them out of.

Posted

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114309144289505174

Quote

Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

TLDR he caved except Jinaaaaaaaa where he's tripling down

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Posted
33 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

We import so much shit from China, from consumer electronics, beauty products, clothes, furniture, etc. The reason why we import so much shit from China is because it is cheaper than where we can get it anywhere else. US Consumers are the largest benefactor, by far. Shit is going to get even more expensive. China is gambling that they can endure their hit to their economy longer than US consumers can endure a hit to their wallet. The next election will tell the story of who wins. If there is a wholesale change to Republican seats, China wins because the people voted to exit the tariff dick measuring contest. If there isn't a massive shit in seats, then Trump won and China has to acquiese. 

That's my take anyway.

We do import so much shit from China. It's not because it's cheaper there, it's because they have legitimately built their entire manufacturing capability off of EXTREMELY low wage and completely unregulated factories. We actually SHIP THE MATERIALS and SHIP THEM BACK and that's cheaper than just keeping it here, manufacturing it and distributing it here. I think a lot of people don't realize the damage that globalization has caused to the planet + to the facade of China doing anything other than being a horrific labor provider. China doesn't make margin on the finished good cost, they make money on the services they provide to put the good together. The reason a lot of things are just cheaper there is because they don't have the high cost of making sure factory workers don't die, they don't have to pay them shit, they can do whatever they want as long as they've aligned with the government etc. There isn't some magic technology that exists in china that makes them able to deliver labor or manufacturing cheaper. 

China exports some high value stuff and they've embargoed that (rare earth metals, etc) China isn't betting on Americans voting for trump again, they don't give a shit. This is like fumbling on the 1 yard line on 1st down, but not just any fumble, a fumble where the ball was snapped, the Quarterback ran backwards and is headed for the wrong endzone to fumble it on purpose and start doing a TD celebration while the offensive line and everyone else make sure the other team recovers the fumble in the endzone for a touchdown by screaming and yelling "it's over here it's over here"

9 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I don't get this angle. Who is going to replace the US as the global influencer?  If China digs in they will be forced to devalue the yuan taking them out of the equation (again), their economy that just came of the brink of disaster is now again teetering on the brink and will blow up as these tariffs continue. Russia? nope. EU - nope?

I think China knows they have been boxed in and their only play is to try and save face. That is why there are concerns from surrounding countries that they are getting backed into a corner that only a war/conflct will get them out of.

Europe, BRICS or Asia minus China. 

Europe has the best chance because they've already done the EU thing.

None of that will happen though, what happens is we go back to a zero sum world where everyone's prosperity is determined solely by their own capability and resources, global trade as we know it will transform back to domestically centric trade. Listen to the PM of Singapore, that is what's going to happen, he's dead on what it means. 

6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114309144289505174

TLDR he caved except Jinaaaaaaaa where he's tripling down

holy fuck. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I'm beginning to wonder if these conceptions we have of the conditions for workers in China are accurate. A lot of what the US media has said about foreign countries has turned out to be exaggerations or bullshit.

I have visited the Foxconn facility in Shenzhen, granted it's been 10-15 years.  They were spraypainting computer chassis hanging from hooks in an open-air building with the windows and doors open.  They might have had paper face masks.

I have seen the nets on the dormitory buildings.

It's bad.

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