2018 Houston Astros Season Thread

[Mez2 4025]

I got bobby by the pound, Whitney by the key, DJ Screw by the gallon, bitch the game belong to me 

#HTownPride

[Dr. Teeth 5845]

#31!!!

[Rustic Horn 929]

[Victor Lazlo 1777]

5 RBI from the 9 hole. Awesome  

Wonder when the last time that happened was. 

[Rustic Horn 929]

Nice game Tony!

[UTexasFight 9547]

Our opening day 3, 4, and 5 starters have as many or more wins than 4 other MLBs teams

[Limp Brisket 546]

11 at Minute Maid?   Let’s roll.

Edited May 23, 2018 by Limp Brisket

[Jshep34 2321]

We got there early for bp. Astros took off straight to dugout for some meeting by hinch. Only tuve signed for a few minutes along with kemp. Lilshep made a sign to support coach Powell. He came over said hi and talked a few. Took a ball to mcCutchen and had him sign it. Also posey. Madbum put on a show . Put several off tracks. 

Nice to see bats wake up at home.  If kemp keeps it up , jake can stay gone.

[Victor Lazlo 1777]

18 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

  If kemp keeps it up , jake can stay gone.

Yes, a good analog for Jake, but with a much better on base %. 

I’ll take it. 

[Planet Houston 4931]

[UDontKnow 10450]

Damn it feels good to be from H-Town!

[Guest]

8 hours ago, Scraps said:

Is there a more queer name in the majors than Kelby?

Rougned

[WBT 20672]

Since we lost 5 of 7 against the Yankees and Arizona, we've allowed 2 runs or fewer in 11 of our last 13.  In the other 2 games we allowed 5 and 3.  

We're allowing 2.55 runs/game, almost a full run ahead of Arizona in 2nd place at 3.52.

[Limp Brisket 546]

9 hours ago, Scraps said:

Is there a more queer name in the majors than Kelby?

Trevor Bauer

[Gut Wagon 8087]

There we go, bulking up our offensive stats against the weaklings. Seriously, I just hope it continues. 

Great night by Kemp, and another really good one by Stassi. The latter has quietly been solid for us. I like having both of these guys in there as often as we can. They make it easier to avoid thinking about how feeble we've looked at the bottom of the order many nights. 

Edited May 23, 2018 by Gut Wagon

[ERhine 1909]

Is there a more queer name in the majors than Kelby?

Bud Selig.

[Hank Chinaski 6322]

Great production from the bottom of the order. Nice first game back for Davis, drawing 3 walks. Gattis, Stassi, Kemp had really good ABs. This is what the 2017 team looked like - production from the bottom of the order. 

Edited May 23, 2018 by Hank Chinaski

[huge 3795]

Thanks Mr Drummond.

Taking the 4 year old today.

[TonyTexas 10534]

Great production from the bottom of the order. Nice first game back for Davis, drawing 3 walks. Gattis, Stassi, Kemp had really good ABs. This is what the 2017 team looked like - production from the bottom of the order. 

Davis has said that that he has been working hard on having better plate discipline and is reason for his recent successes. Bodes well.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

 

[Fozzz 152]

McCann/Stassi is turning out to be an excellent platoon at C.  Wise move by Luhnow making that change.  

[Dr. Teeth 5845]

We don’t have to wait for the baseball today!!!!

[Jograves 357]

27 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

McCann/Stassi is turning out to be an excellent platoon at C.  Wise move by Luhnow making that change.  

The strike 'em out throw 'em out in the 2nd was a thing of beauty. Pinpoint throw by Max. 

[The Dog 44160]

58 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

 

Not sure if it's in this thread but there's one of Verlander throwing 3-4 pitches. His motion is identical in each instance yet the ball does something different every time. Pretty remarkable.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

Welp:

 

[Ldogg53 514]

1 hour ago, huge said:

Thanks Mr Drummond.

Taking the 4 year old today.

I'll be at Buck's/Lucky's for lunch before game.  Then hitting the game.  Come meet up.

[Ldogg53 514]

1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

McCann/Stassi is turning out to be an excellent platoon at C.  Wise move by Luhnow making that change.  

Heard yesterday before the game that Stassi was batting like .125 against RHP but .500 against LHP.  Is there a place to check stats like that? 

[Fozzz 152]

7 minutes ago, Ldogg53 said:

Heard yesterday before the game that Stassi was batting like .125 against RHP but .500 against LHP.  Is there a place to check stats like that? 

Fangraphs' splits tool is useful for this.  Stassi's MLB career splits are .222 vs .352 for RHP/LHP.  It's probably not that large though - platoon splits take a long time to become meaningful.  

https://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=10059&position=C&splitArr=&strgroup=career&type=1&startDate=all&endDate=all&filter=

[HtownHorn 14786]

I'm liking the use of the young guys. They are hungry and provide the energy this team lacks at times. Going to be the same with Tucker and Stubbs as well.

[Rustic Horn 929]

Edit....

Already posted.

Edited May 23, 2018 by Rustic Horn

[Rustic Horn 929]

Edit....

 

Already posted.

[TonyTexas 10534]

Fuck spiders....... and the Giants

[UTexasFight 9547]

This is fascinating:

 

Breaking down JV’s 10-start hot streak:

 

 

Everywhere you look, there are interesting and amazing stats about Astros ace Justin Verlander.

 

He’s got a 1.05 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 10 starts. He’s basically replicated the five-start run he had with the Astros last September, only this time he’s done it over 10 starts. His next-best ERA over his first 10 starts in a season is 2.15 in 2012.

 

You could throw out a lot of numbers about Verlander’s fastball — how the velocity is up, the whiffs against it are up and the value of it is up. But the number that is most interesting to me is 45. It relates to this pitch from his last start.

 

 

This was the pitch that finished Luis Valbuena for Verlander’s 2,499th career strikeout, a 97-mph laser on the inside corner at the knees. It’s one that helped snuff an Angels rally in an eventual shutout and one that made Valbuena angry enough to flip away his bat in disgust. That makes sense considering that he’s 3-for-34 with 17 strikeouts against Verlander for his career and has been struck out in nine of his last 10 at-bats.

 

But going back to the number 45 — that’s the called strike percentage that Verlander has recorded with his fastball this season. That’s an unusual number for Verlander. It ranks third in the majors among the 100 pitchers who have thrown the most fastballs this season, trailing only Zack Greinke and Kyle Hendricks, the latter of whom regularly ranks among the top pitchers in that stat.

 

The last three seasons, Verlander’s called strike rate on fastballs was 33 percent, 36 percent and 34 percent, respectively. Verlander was at 40 percent or above in each of his first five starts of this season and seven of his first 10 (and in one of the remaining three, he was at 39 percent). The 11 percentage point jump from last season to this season is (so far) the largest by a starting pitcher in the majors.

 

In fact, Verlander has had four starts this season in which his fastball got called strikes at a 50 percent clip. That matches the total number of starts of that type that he had from 2013 to 2017 combined.

 

From a practical perspective, what does this mean?

 

Verlander throws anywhere from 50 to 75 fastballs per game. Hitters swing at a smidge over half of them, so on a given night, there could be 25 to 40 takes. An increase in called strike rate of about 10 percentage points means two to four extra fastballs that are called strikes.

 

Give a pitcher two to four extra called strikes a game with his primary pitch and you’re giving him the kind of weapon that can neutralize hitters who should have an edge on him. Left-handed hitters are hitting .118/.196/.186 against Verlander this season. He’s basically made them look like pitchers.

 

So what’s going on here?

 

From the looks of the data, the formula has been pretty simple. The Astros have simply had Verlander lower the height of his fastball. He’s reorganized his approach, so to speak, as these heat maps show.

 

Against left-handed batters:

 

 

 

And right-handers:

 

 

 

For those interested in the numbers, here’s a look at how often Verlander has thrown his fastball to the lower half of the strike zone (or below the zone). You’ll see it’s a process that began with his five starts last season.

 

%

2015 37%

2016 32%

2017 Tigers 33%

2017 Astros 39%

2018 42%

“He and Gerrit Cole and [pitching coach] Brent Strom talk about moving [the fastball] around as much as can,” said Astros radio broadcaster Steve Sparks, who pitched in the majors for nine seasons. “They look for areas away from a swing path, where you can lock up a hitter. You are so accustomed to seeing the ball up, and when it’s in the zone for just a little bit, it’s tough to pull the trigger.”

 

Sparks noted that Verlander also changed his release point to get his right hand closer to his head, which gives it a different effect.

 

“The hitter thinks the fastball is going to be low and it has late ride, so it stays up by the knees,” said one major league scout. “And he won’t see a center-cut fastball as center cut. That’s the sneaky effect of it”

 

Bringing the fastball down meant that he was throwing more fastballs in the strike zone. Hitters are swinging at them a little less often than they have in previous years. Thus, he’s getting more takes on pitches that should be strikes.

 

Verlander is working with better pitch framers than he’s had in the past. Brian McCann’s track record is a little better than James McCann and a lot better than Alex Avila, the two catchers who caught almost all of his starts the last few seasons. And Verlander knows he has a better defense behind him. So there’s not as much of a need to throw an unhittable high fastball as there used to be.

 

Verlander has thrown 66 strikes on 69 taken fastballs that were in the lower half of the strike zone this season (96 percent). That pitch was an 86 percent strike for him last season.

 

Verlander has also been more on-target with his pitches.

 

Last season with the Tigers, Verlander threw 15 percent of his pitches at or closest to the catcher’s pre-pitch target and 40 percent of his pitches farthest away from it. This season, that ratio is 22 percent close, 32 percent farthest away.

 

For the most part, he’s bringing pitches back closer to the center of the plate, which jibes with the average strike probability of Verlander’s pitches having jumped from 50 percent in 2017 to 58 percent in 2018 (the latter is the highest for any starting pitcher). Though as you saw above, it’s not always about just throwing the ball down the middle. Sometimes he can slip one in and nail a corner just right.

 

There are many legitimate reasons that Verlander has put together this remarkable 10-start run. The swings and misses are up, the line drives and BABIP are down. There’s a pretty good inventory of success stats.

 

But don’t forget to consider the value of what we’ve shown you here. Otherwise, you’ll end up just like Valbuena.

 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

5 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Fuck spiders....... and the Giants

Maybe Josh needed to refresh his spidey powers. 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

 

[Hank Chinaski 6322]

I know batting order doesn't make that much difference, but I hate seeing Marwin batting 5th; should be in bottom 3rd behind McCann & Gurriel.

2017 isn't walking back through that door (or something). 

[Ldogg53 514]

I know batting order doesn't make that much difference, but I hate seeing Marwin batting 5th; should be in bottom 3rd behind McCann & Gurriel.
2017 isn't walking back through that door (or something). 

Agreed completely.

[HtownHorn 14786]

42 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I know batting order doesn't make that much difference, but I hate seeing Marwin batting 5th; should be in bottom 3rd behind McCann & Gurriel.

2017 isn't walking back through that door (or something). 

He shouldn't be starting over Davis anymore. He got his 150 PAs to prove last year wasn't a fluke.

[DaysOff 7976]

CC stood there with that bat on his shoulder 8 straight pitches. 2 for 25 now.

[Fudge Nuggets 19227]

Well that was less than ideal, but typical lack of execution by the offense in a Verlander start.

[Fudge Nuggets 19227]

1 minute ago, DaysOff said:

CC stood there with that bat on his shoulder 8 straight pitches. 2 for 25 now.

I don’t know what he was waiting for when that 3-1 fastball was thrown right down the pipe.

[Gut Wagon 8087]

Carlos seems distracted or something. Maybe just confused. Whatever the case, we really need him to revert to form at the plate. This has been going on too long. 

[Spoosner 86]

CC watching those 2 pitches is infuriating.  Should've had some runs for JV in the first.

[Fudge Nuggets 19227]

Their catcher was 0-16 in throwing out base stealers before today.  He’s 2 for 3 so far.

To be fair I was ok with sending Kemp.  Just happened to be a perfect pitch for the catcher to thrown down to second.

Edited May 23, 2018 by Fudge Nuggets

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

fuck

[UTexasFight 9547]

I feel like springer would have got that
Shit

[Spoosner 86]

Seemed like Kemp did not get a good jump on that.

[Lat22 4018]

Seemed like Kemp did not get a good jump on that.

Understatement.

[UTexasFight 9547]

That was nasty placement

[UTexasFight 9547]

Well shit.
For a split second after springer caught that ball, JVs ERA was under 1.00... and then the run crossed the plate