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2018 Houston Astros Season Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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formermav43

formermav43 4606

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The underlying power numbers look much better, though, suggesting he is due for some positive regression.

 I remembered him struggling a lot from the same eye ball test in 2015 too, so I looked it up. His avg and obp were both lower after 50 games than now, and he was only slugging .417. He went on to have a good year, even if not as good as 2016-17.

BUT all of the underlying metrics suggest the contact he’s making profiles like the last 2 years, not 2015. 

Hes obviously not hitting on all cylinders right now. But that’s clearly not unprecedented. The data suggests he’s also been really unlucky as far as his power numbers go.

He’s going to be fine not only because he’ll start putting together better at bats, but also because he should have been getting better results with the at bats he’s had. His luck will turn AND he’ll hit better to boot.

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Bregs is going Crawford Boxes right here.

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Two Diamond Club tickets available for the Sunday night game.  Free.  Need to pick them up from me in 77027. Rules: Poster must be a big contributor to this thread/last years shag thread.  No gue

Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
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10 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

The underlying power numbers look much better, though, suggesting he is due for some positive regression.

 I remembered him struggling a lot from the same eye ball test in 2015 too, so I looked it up. His avg and obp were both lower after 50 games than now, and he was only slugging .417. He went on to have a good year, even if not as good as 2016-17.

BUT all of the underlying metrics suggest the contact he’s making profiles like the last 2 years, not 2015. 

Hes obviously not hitting on all cylinders right now. But that’s clearly not unprecedented. The data suggests he’s also been really unlucky as far as his power numbers go.

He’s going to be fine not only because he’ll start putting together better at bats, but also because he should have been getting better results with the at bats he’s had. His luck will turn AND he’ll hit better to boot.

One thing that is concerning about Altuve is that while his average exit velocity on fly balls is about the same as 2016-2017, his barrel rate on fly balls is around half that from the previous two seasons.  

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19211

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16 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

I was thinking about this today as well.
Buddy and I agreed 6-5 would be good especially since 7 games are on the road...except we’re better on the road.
So make it 7-4

I hope Keuchel decides to remove his head from his ass during this stretch of death.

It would behoove him to get the ground ball percentage up where it belongs.  According to fangraphs he's at 57% while a typical year is 62%.  May not sound like much difference but for a dude like him it is huge.

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3 hours ago, Ldogg53 said:

Fuck.  This is beyond just being in a slump.  Something is clearly wrong with his approach and swing right now. 

When I think of players whom I would bet against, Altuve is pretty much dead last.  Bregman is similar.  While Gattis is not nearly as skilled, his background puts him on this list too.

Buncha fuckers on this squad with no quit in their blood.  That’s what makes them so freaking great to root for!!!

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kevwun

kevwun 15846

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9 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I hope Keuchel decides to remove his head from his ass during this stretch of death.

It would behoove him to get the ground ball percentage up where it belongs.  According to fangraphs he's at 57% while a typical year is 62%.  May not sound like much difference but for a dude like him it is huge.

I don't have much faith that it's gonna happen.  His career is following the arc of the sinkerball pitcher.  I'm glad Luhnow was wise enough to fight the temptation of giving him a long term deal.

Edited by kevwun
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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8086

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16 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

I was thinking about this today as well.
Buddy and I agreed 6-5 would be good especially since 7 games are on the road...except we’re better on the road.
So make it 7-4

DK is not starting 4 of the 11 games...so no. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14760

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1 hour ago, APMP said:

If Hanley isn't claimed, would we be interested in him as a cheap DH?

We should be. Considering his 6 HRs would be tied for 3rd on the team. His 26 RBIs would be 3rd on the team, and his paltry .708 OPS would be better than everyone not named Altuve, Correa, Springer, Bregman, Reddick, and Stassi.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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that bauer article, yeah.

when i read an article from someone else's point of view, other people's quotes about bauer, he comes off like a bitter nutcase.  but now, finally seeing things from his point of view, with his direct quotes, he comes off like a bitter nutcase.

not exactly sure what that all means, but i have a couple guesses.

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8086

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1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

that bauer article, yeah.

when i read an article from someone else's point of view, other people's quotes about bauer, he comes off like a bitter nutcase.  but now, finally seeing things from his point of view, with his direct quotes, he comes off like a bitter nutcase.

not exactly sure what that all means, but i have a couple guesses.

In typical hot dog fashion, Trevor relishes the role. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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37 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

We should be. Considering his 6 HRs would be tied for 3rd on the team. His 26 RBIs would be 3rd on the team, and his paltry .708 OPS would be better than everyone not named Altuve, Correa, Springer, Bregman, Reddick, and Stassi.

I doubt it though. He can't really play anywhere defensively, so you can't really have both he and Gattis on the same roster. So we'd essentially have to get rid of Gattis to make room. Although that wouldn't be a bad option on the field, I don't think Hanley is superior enough to Gattis as a hitter (he's been below average this year and last) for the team to make that move. 

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runthebone

runthebone 8027

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16 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

oh, and i hope he makes the all-star game for the first time.

thinking verlander probably starts, but then what does the a.l. manager aj hinch do?  he looks at his roster, sees a bunch of his guys, and trevor bauer.  hmmm, who should i put in?

Trevor Bauer for 8 innings

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29194

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also re:bauer, maybe i just skimmed the article, but there sure seemed to be a lack of team related goals, especially considering the indians are universally projected to be the 3 seed in the al.  maybe that's one of the reasons his teammates dislike him.

i guess we're spoiled, and obviously everyone's team goals were fulfilled last year (minus cole, rondon, smith), but you just rarely hear any type of chatter like that from our guys (although i know correa would like to win an mvp).  i get the feeling bauer would be moping around if he had a shitty game that turned into a 12-11 victory for his squad.  probably down in the clubhouse watching tape instead of high fiving his hitters.  

re:hanley - i'm reading it's largely based on the huge payment that kicks in if he reaches a certain amount of pa with the team, so i guess that makes some sense.  they're fine offensively and he's been slumping.  as far as us getting involved, it would surprise me if hinch went after someone that cora didn't fight to keep on his team (obviously those decisions are made higher up, but still).

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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 “I keep up with Cole, and I know that he’s killing it,’’ said Decker, 31, now a first baseman with Class AAA Reno in the D-backs organization. “I like him a lot. But I can’t tell you I know Bauer. I spoke with Bauer one time, and I said, 'I’ll never do that again. I’m good. I got my fill for a lifetime.'

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/05/24/trevor-bauer-gerrit-cole-ucla-dont-like-each-other/640362002/

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Planet Houston

Planet Houston 4930

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2 hours ago, formermav43 said:

He’s going to be fine not only because he’ll start putting together better at bats, but also because he should have been getting better results with the at bats he’s had. His luck will turn AND he’ll hit better to boot.

He's also gonna be fine because he's Jose Motherfucking Altuve.  Hand wringing about 27 is way down on my priority list as an Astros fan.

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Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8086

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11 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Why stop at 8 or 9 for Bauer? Throw him out there for 10 and have him be the pitcher of record to start the 11th when the leadoff batter starts on 2nd.

 

Then put in Cole to throw one meat pitch that is pulled in the gap.

L charged to Bauer.

 

 

 

Good plan. And since Trevor enjoys being in the spotlight, let's have him warm up by pitching to every hitter in every round of the Home Run Derby. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14760

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1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I doubt it though. He can't really play anywhere defensively, so you can't really have both he and Gattis on the same roster. So we'd essentially have to get rid of Gattis to make room. Although that wouldn't be a bad option on the field, I don't think Hanley is superior enough to Gattis as a hitter (he's been below average this year and last) for the team to make that move. 

Hanley is a much better hitter than Gattis. It's really not close.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Shifting is not a panacea, and as BP’s own Russell A. Carleton wrote earlier this week, there are side effects that call into question the overall, big-picture efficacy. Specifically, while the shift does its intended job by taking away singles and doubles via smarter positioning, there’s evidence that it also leads to, among other negatives, pitchers throwing fewer strikes and issuing more walks. The end result is murky enough that perhaps one cancels out the other. Unless, of course, a team has figured out how to frequently shift and have their pitchers pound the strike zone with the shift on. And guess what? Houston appears to have figured it out.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/40132/banjo-hitter-best-defense-baseball/

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19211

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

oh, and i hope he makes the all-star game for the first time.

thinking verlander probably starts, but then what does the a.l. manager aj hinch do?  he looks at his roster, sees a bunch of his guys, and trevor bauer.  hmmm, who should i put in?

Put the jackass in and make him pitch 7 innings.

Never mind, others are way ahead of me with even better destruction of that asshole’s future career.

Edited by Fudge Nuggets
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