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2018 Houston Astros Season Thread

Planet Houston

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TexArcher
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Bregs is going Crawford Boxes right here.

ERhine
ERhine

Prior to the footage being edited by Bender:

wesleywest
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Two Diamond Club tickets available for the Sunday night game.  Free.  Need to pick them up from me in 77027. Rules: Poster must be a big contributor to this thread/last years shag thread.  No gue

formermav43

formermav43 4,606

Posted
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12 minutes ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

Don’t look now but Jake is sniffing the Mendoza line. Can’t remember the last time he was over it. Keep it up 

His terrible first month is obscuring that he’s been pretty good since his recall from the minors. 119 wRC+, .785 OPS, he’s even walking 6.8% of the time, and that’s without tonight’s game figured in. Those are all really similar to his full season last year. 

He still is really streaky and strikes out too much, but that’s just who he is even in best case. But it seems that time in the minors got him back on track.

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mycox

mycox 582

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23 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

so we're 55-28.  at this point last year we were 56-27.

we then went on a 16-19 stretch over our next 35.

on pace for 107.3 wins.

Yeah, but the run differential the past two games. On Pace for 90 wins

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9,661

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A bit interesting to see the move to carry an extra pitcher, although we are in the middle of a 23 games in 24 days stretch before the AS break.
I’ve seen Cionel’s name for a while but don’t know much about him. Any chance this is an audition before July 31 to see if he can fill the perceived LH reliever hole?
(Or is that asking waaay too much? It would seem it is)

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9,661

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Q&A with Kaplan from today.
A lot of minors and trade talk.

I see Wulaw’s real name must be Alan B...asking about the 2020 rotation. Holy hell. Lulz.


The Astros are 54-28 and don’t play another expected playoff team until the penultimate day of July. They have an absurd run differential of +174, which is 51 runs better than the next-best team. Their next six games are on the road, where they haven’t lost since May 30.

In other words, all is going smoothly for the defending World Series champions. Yet the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline looms and so could a promotion for their best position player prospect. So, let’s get to your questions.

Predictions on what the Astros will do at the trade deadline? Reliever, minor moves or a major off the radar pickup? — Joshua C.

I predict the Astros will acquire a reliever to give themselves another option in high-leverage situations for anticipated October matchups against the Yankees and/or the Red Sox and/or the Indians.

Who that will be — Zach Britton? Brad Hand? Blake Treinen? Jeurys Familia? — I don’t think Jeff Luhnow even knows at this point. And he will have to be creative to open an active roster spot if he does trade for a bullpen arm, as I detailed here.

“A major off-the-radar pickup” would be stunning, especially considering the lack of holes on the Astros’ roster. On top of their major league-best rotation by ERA (2.96), the Astros already have baseball’s best offense by OPS+ (121) if not by runs per game (their 5.20 trails the Red Sox by .01). Luhnow’s comments in this recent piece suggest any additions to the Astros’ offense will probably come internally through call-ups from the minor leagues.

(Cue the Kyle Tucker questions.)

Do you see Luhnow making another run at Zach Britton? — Robert H.

If between now and the deadline Britton performs to a point where the Astros feel he’s a definitive upgrade who’s worth the acquisition cost, yes. Why wouldn’t they? They should evaluate the possibility of acquiring any reliever who fits that criteria, even one they nearly traded for last July 31.

But so far in eight appearances since his return from his Achilles injury, Britton hasn’t been his dominant former self. In an outing last Friday against the Braves, the lefthander allowed four earned runs and recorded only one out. On Wednesday night against the Mariners, he coughed up a game-tying, two-run homer to Kyle Seager in the top of the ninth.

His performance in the next month will be crucial in determining his potential value to the Astros.

Which prospects would the Astros actually move in a supposed deadline deal? Seems obvious Tucker and Whitley are untouchable, but do they try to trade White, Reed, Davis since the infield is locked up for a while? — Matthew D.

I don’t think front offices think in terms of players being “untouchable.” Every player has a price. That being said, the Astros wouldn’t trade either of their two elite prospects for a reliever, so neither Tucker nor Whitley is at risk of going anywhere.

As far as which minor leaguers the Astros would part with for bullpen help, it obviously depends on the quality of the reliever they’re acquiring, plus the years of control he has remaining. If it’s a reliever with multiple years of control left, I wouldn’t rule out anyone aside from Tucker or Whitley. But much also depends on which players their particular trading partner likes, which is information we don’t have access to.

Behind Tucker and Whitley, the Astros have a deep pool of solid prospects from which they could put together different packages. Those certainly could include the likes of J.D. Davis, AJ Reed and Tyler White, but if those players were so coveted by other teams they would’ve been moved in past deals. (The fact that they are blocked isn’t exactly new.) They still figure to have some trade value but not as much as others in the Astros’ system, like Yordan Alvarez and Corbin Martin.

Seems Astros are using the LF spot as a place to get ABs for Marwin, Marisnick, and Kemp. When do you think Tucker will be called up, and how do you think Hinch will keep giving ABs to Marwin? — Chris S.

The left field hierarchy this season has gone Marwin Gonzalez-Tony Kemp/Derek Fisher-Josh Reddick (Jake Marisnick hasn’t appeared in a single game there, though his center field starts push Reddick to left). But as you alluded to, it’s expected the touted 21-year-old Tucker will eventually take over the position.

My best guess for a Tucker promotion would be August, but it certainly could come sooner. My sense is the Astros don’t want to call him up until a) they’re sure he’s ready to make an impact and b) they have regular at-bats available. Those regular at-bats would probably come at the expense of Gonzalez, who could reassume his super-utility role, and Kemp, obviously.

The only real motivation for the Astros to start Tucker’s service time clock this season is if they believe he could be one of their 25 best players on a 2018 playoff roster. If he were to come up and struggle like Derek Fisher did last year, Gonzalez could fill that everyday left fielder role in the postseason, as he did last fall.

What is Marisnick’s future with the team? Obviously, he has been as close to a free out as you get at the plate this year. But his fielding, base running, and power (when he does actually make contact) are all great. (Tuesday) night alone he was responsible for saving 2 runs with his defense and to top it off, hit a 3 run HR. Is he someone we keep around if we can sign cheap? Once Tucker comes around, does Jake ultimately have a roster spot? Or is someone else the casualty? — Michael M.

There seems to be a misconception out there that Marisnick is the one blocking Tucker. That’s not really the case. Though Tucker has played center field in addition to the corners, he projects as a corner outfielder at the major league level and more of a left fielder than a right fielder. Marisnick is on the Astros’ roster because he plays an elite center field, which is why despite his terrible 61 OPS+, he has a 0.9 bWAR this season.

I’d expect Marisnick to continue to be a part-time player for the Astros and a late-inning defensive replacement or pinch runner in the postseason. He has two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining, and he won’t cost the Astros much considering he commanded $1.1 million and $1.9 million in his first two trips through the arbitration process, respectively.

Kemp is the one whose 2018 performance more so affects Tucker’s timeline. If he weren’t batting .319/.394/.418 in 91 at-bats and Gonzalez hadn’t heated up in June, you might have already seen Tucker called up.

Altuve is obviously starting the All-Star Game. What other Astros legitimately have a shot to make it? Bregman and Yuli really making a push right now. Which pitchers go? Verlander, Cole, Morton? Or Devo? — Richard M.

Altuve, the only Astro leading his position in balloting, and starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are Houston’s locks to be All-Stars. (Verlander might start for the AL.) Charlie Morton has a solid chance, especially considering there are always pitchers who aren’t available to pitch in the game and must be replaced.

Among the Astros’ position players not named Altuve, Alex Bregman seems to have the best odds. His .887 OPS ranks third among AL third baseman, behind only Jose Ramirez (.993) and Eduardo Escobar (.890). He won’t beat out the deserving Ramirez for the starting spot but has a strong case to be one of A.J. Hinch’s reserves.

Because Devenski is not a closer, I don’t think he (1.38 ERA in 32 2/3 innings) will have logged enough innings to make the All-Star team. Remember that when he made it last season it was as a replacement for the injured Dallas Keuchel, and at that point Devenski had a 2.09 ERA in 51 2/3 innings.

So, when the dust has settled and the unavailable pitchers have been replaced, I expect five Astros to join Hinch and his coaching staff at Nationals Park next month: Altuve, Bregman, Verlander, Cole and Morton.

Curious to get your impressions on the state of the farm system and how it may change the bullpen dynamic moving into the latter half of the season. Specifically, when the 40-man roster allows, who from AAA and AA might be impactful? — Rohith N

While no longer top five in the majors — it’s probably closer to the Nos. 8-12 range — Houston’s farm system is still considered above average despite all of the promotions/trades in the last few years. Whitley is arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball and Tucker is among the best hitting prospects.

Regarding how it changes the bullpen dynamic, the Astros do have several arms you could see in September, if not earlier — Whitley, lefthander Cionel Perez and righthanders Josh James and Trent Thornton immediately come to mind — but it’s difficult to see any of them aside from Whitley having a realistic shot at making a real impact this season.

Do you think the Astros will start to liberally use the 10-day DL to rest pitchers? I can’t imagine they want all of their guys at 200+ innings before the playoffs even begin. — Adam K.

I’ve recently wondered this myself, Adam, but I don’t get the sense the Astros have planned any built-in breaks for Morton or Lance McCullers Jr., their two starters not accustomed to 200-inning workloads. At least not extended breaks.

Hinch has recently cited the fact the team has five off days in August, meaning their starters will pitch on extra rest regularly. If they wanted to, the Astros could also push Morton’s and McCullers’ first starts after the All-Star break to the fourth and fifth games of the second half. Hinch hasn’t yet revealed how he will line up his rotation post All-Star break.

Any early view of the 2020 SP rotation? I assume JV, Keuchel, Cole, Morton and McHugh will all be gone. So we will have LMJ, Whitley, Peacock (final year) and? Do you envision the likes of Armenteros, Martin, Perez (C.and H.), Thornton and James coming up to start? And what about Martes, Paulino and Bukauskas? — Alan B.

Man, Alan, you’re really looking ahead. Certainly all of those pitchers aren’t currently under contract beyond 2019, but perhaps the Astros will find a way to retain at least one of them. Otherwise, they still will have McCullers, Whitley and Brad Peacock, as you mentioned. Perhaps Martin slides into the back end. Francis Martes, David Paulino, Rogelio Armenteros, Cionel Perez, Trent Thornton and James project as relievers long-term, in my opinion, but maybe they will prove me wrong and stick as starters. J.B. Bukauskas, who’s hardly pitched this year because of an injury Luhnow recently described as “left side discomfort,” and Hector Perez (Advanced Class A) are too far from the majors to really have an ETA. The rest of the 2020 rotation could consist of free agents/trade targets.

I see Brady Rodgers is making rehab starts, will we see Jandel Gustave pitching soon as well? — Christopher B.

Gustave should be a month or two behind Rodgers, as he underwent his Tommy John surgery seven weeks later. (Rodgers had his May 2, 2017, Gustave on June 21, 2017). I wouldn’t expect either right-hander to contend for spots on the Astros’ roster before September.

If you had to field two teams for a 4 v. 4 game of tug of war using only Astros, who would you put on each team. Yuli and Gattis are probably the two anchors, but which other players would you want going head to head? Does Altuve make the cut? Which pitchers? — Ray H.

Are we sure Yuli Gurriel is an anchor in this scenario? I think Altuve definitely makes the cut considering his pound-for-pound strength. And you’ve got to put him opposite Carlos Correa and then split up George Springer and Marisnick. To represent the pitchers, let’s go with Cole and Devenski. You can pick who is on which side. Robert Ford can call the action.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,201

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re: the article discussing the future, and which free agents will/won't still be with the team in 2020 and beyond...jose altuve is the key.  he's locked up, and he seems like the type of guy others want to stick around to play with, perhaps for the remainder of their respective careers.  would it shock anyone if verlander figured out a way to stay around without robbing us blind (assuming we want to keep him of course).

we won a world series, so that loosens things up a lot.  we signed altuve, and i bet we try to do something with bregs in the next 18-36 months.  that shit matters.  you won't have guys going other places to "finally win a ring" somewhere else, since the team is so similar to last year (besides cole).

we may make some tough choices, but i bet some of those guys stick around.  maybe i'm naive, but they look like they're having an absolute blast.  i guarantee you we'll see some tears in late july if we send someone packing.  nobody will say, "well, it's just a business, i get it, i'll be fine in baltimore/oakland."

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5 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

i agree, altuve is the key to the future. locking him up is a huge win for this organization 

He’s in the first year of a 5 year/ $150mm contract, no?

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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8 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

A bit interesting to see the move to carry an extra pitcher, although we are in the middle of a 23 games in 24 days stretch before the AS break.
I’ve seen Cionel’s name for a while but don’t know much about him. Any chance this is an audition before July 31 to see if he can fill the perceived LH reliever hole?
(Or is that asking waaay too much? It would seem it is)

Odd to bring him up now as a short reliever.  Wonder if a starter will be going on the DL soon.  

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

When Guduan was sent back down, Tyler White filled his spot.  I guess this latest move is getting the pitcher / position player ratio back to even keel? 

I think 12 pitchers is fine considering the innings they are getting from their starters.  They may want a look at him to see if he is worth rostering for the postseason.  He has performed well in Corpus this year and I still see him as a future starter if he keeps performing, although he'll be used as a reliever with the Astros this season.

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WBT

WBT 20,776

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Kaplan on Perez:

Spoiler

 

Projecting Astros call-up Cionel Perez at the major league level

Cionel-Perez-1024x704.jpg
By Jake Kaplan 12m agosave-icon@2x.png

The jury is still out on whether 22-year-old Cuban lefthander Cionel Perez will stick as a starter long term or end up as a reliever. His first stint with the Astros will be in the latter role, a cameo that will begin Friday at Tropicana Field and may last only a few days.

But for many, his major league debut (presuming he makes at least one appearance before Joe Smith returns from the 10-day disabled list) will be their first exposure to Perez. He’s logged only 151 innings stateside since he signed with the Astros for a $2 million bonus in December 2016 and has yet to pitch above Class AA.

 

Sources: The Astros are calling up lefthander Cionel Perez from Double-A Corpus Christi to fill the active roster spot created by Carlos Correa's pending DL placement.

 
 

 

The knock on Perez is his size: he stands only a listed 5-foot-11, 170 pounds. He’s an explosive pitcher, armed with a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and has touched 97 mph. He also has three secondary pitches. In 57 1/3 innings with Class AA Corpus Christi this season, it has translated to a 2.20 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts per nine against 3.3 walks.

Perez’s go-to secondary pitch is a slider in the low-to-mid 80s that’s more slurvey than cutter-ish. He also throws a curveball in the 76-77 mph range. His changeup — his consensus fourth pitch — is inconsistent but has the potential, at least according to one American League scout, to be average.

Baseball America ranked Perez as Houston’s 13th-best overall prospect over the winter, and he’s unquestionably the Astros’ best left-handed pitching prospect. His stuff should play up in relief, especially if he focuses on harnessing his fastball-slider combo.

Perez might have to wait until his next call-up to see considerable action with the Astros, as the rehabbing Smith (elbow soreness) should be activated from the 10-day DL in a matter of days. The Astros could soon test Perez with a stint in Class AAA unless they want to keep him in Class AA for proximity reasons. He joins Lance McCullers Jr. and Michael Feliz as Astros pitching prospects under GM Jeff Luhnow who were summoned to the majors straight from Class AA.

Perez’s call-up brings the number of relievers in the Astros’ bullpen back to eight. He was selected over righthander James Hoyt and lefthanders Reymin Guduan and Buddy Boshers, each of whom is in Class AAA. Because he needed to be protected from December’s Rule 5 Draft, Perez was already on the Astros’ 40-man roster, which stands at 38 players.

The need for Rule 5 protection came so early in Perez’s pro career because of the unique and somewhat controversial circumstances that surrounded his signing. The Astros originally agreed to terms with Perez in September 2016 on a $5.15 million bonus, which would have been a club record for an international free agent under the age of 23. The deal was voided a month later, reportedly over concern about his elbow.

The Astros’ investment would’ve actually totaled $10.30 million because of the 100 percent overage tax they would’ve incurred for exceeding their signing bonus pool that international signing period. The revised deal cost them $4 million after the tax. Because he signed with the same team that voided his contract, Perez was eligible to be picked in the Rule 5 Draft a year later. The young pitcher expressed displeasure with the process, with his camp positing he should’ve been exempt from international bonus pool restrictions.

Starting out at just 17, Perez pitched for Matanzas of Cuba’s Series Nacional, the island’s primary professional league. To begin his stateside pro career last year, the Astros started him in extended spring training to methodically ramp his arm up for competition after a considerable layoff. He later made his way through low Class A Quad Cities and Advanced Class A Buies Creek before finishing the 2017 minor league season in Class AA.

Perez struggled in his first exposure to Class AA last season (5.54 ERA in 13 innings) but has looked like a different pitcher this season. His fastball sat more in the 93-94 mph range last year, so his velocity increase this year suggests an adjustment to the rigors of the minor league season. He will join the Astros fresh off an appearance in Tuesday’s Texas League All-Star Game.

 

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Scraps

Scraps 13,603

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12 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Rays are playing good ball.  Jake’s homer last night is the only run they have given up in their last 31 innings.  Just got done sweeping the Nationals (only 2 games) and Yankees.

Cool.  And they are still 2 games under .500 and 11-14 in the month of June.  They are not good.  

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,201

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33 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Rewatched the Bregman walk off from Wednesday.  After he connected, first guy over the rail to start the celebration... Justin Verlander.  I think he likes playing for the Astros.

yep.  one thing i've noticed is how engaged altuve is during the game, even when he's not about to bat.  he's always on the front step, first to greet guys who score.  shit you typically don't see, except for college ball.  the only pitcher i've seen remotely like that is verlander.  he's always on the front rail, one of the first to high five guys, right in the thick of it.  bregman says he's having "the time of his life with his best friends".  and they're winning a shit-load of games, so why not.

if verlander retired tomorrow, his grandkids would never have to work.  it shouldn't come down to money.  it'll come down to life decisions, his wife/family, and where he wants to spend his time.  i could see him going back to detroit for a victory lap in a few years if they come along quickly, but i don't think that's gonna happen.  la is always an option, because he has a house here, and his wife is out here a lot. 

guys in their 30's who are no longer "chasing that one elusive championship" can follow their heart and have a good time.  if he thinks houston gives him the best chance to win more playoff games and a chance at more rings, thus fully cementing his plaque, i think he'll stay (provided we want him to).  i think he likes the relationship with nolan ryan he's established, and he seems to like to talk pitching and mentor younger power arms, like cole and mccullers. 

do we have any more young power righties coming down the pipe?

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