2018 Houston Astros Season Thread

[Scraps 13561]

Tyler White back to AAA 

I'd be happy if i never see him in an Astros uni ever again

[DaysOff 7951]

A brief, non-statistical "first half" synopsis from someone who started following the Astros way back in 1968:
Had you told me last winter we'd have 64 wins going into the All-Star break, I'd have been happy. Had you told me we'd do that with our offense having been so sporadic, I'd have been really happy. Then again, had you told me we'd have this record with our starting pitchers getting off to such a historic start, I'd have been bummed. 
Bregman has blown up. Altuve, Springer and Correa have flattened out. Gonzalez, Gattis, McCann and Reddick have declined. McHugh and Sipp have really improved. Peacock has dropped back a bit. Giles has rather predictably wandered off the reservation. Some of the kids show promise. 
So...looking at it from all the angles, I'd say 64-35 is solid. Not awesome, not disappointing...just solid. Which shows how high my standards have become after only five decades.

We should have 5 legitimate losses at the break. Semi disappointing first half.

[David Dennison 18911]

64-35 is awesome. At this rate we win 104 games. 

[kevwun 15795]

I don't believe Correa has swung a bat since he went on the dl.

[Mo Horn 8849]

 

[BornOrange 1441]

On 7/13/2018 at 12:03 PM, UTexasFight said:

 

excerpt from the book about Beltran that was printed in last week’s SI. Great read: https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/07/09/astroball-houston-astros-book-excerpt

Also, if I got nothing else from the book, I finally know how to pronounce Sig Mejdal
(“Who’s dell? MY-DELL!”)

 

I opened that link in a new tab, but just got around to reading two days later.

We need to bring Beltran back in some way, in whatever limited way he finds acceptable.

If he doesn't want a full-time gig, have him come to Houston for a home stand, join the team on a road trip.....whatever he will accept.

[UTexasFight 9464]

[BornOrange 1441]

I recognize Verlander, Cole, Bregman, and Springer.

Who are the other two guys? They are not Morton and Altuve.

[Strat 149]

The younger kid is AJ Bregman, his bro.

[tx 3 putt 76988]

damn i love this team 

[tx 3 putt 76988]

this team could very easily be 70-29 or 69-30

keep racking W's, win the division to avoid the wild card game

[Jacob McCandles 202]

I recognize Verlander, Cole, Bregman, and Springer.
Who are the other two guys? They are not Morton and Altuve.

Ben Verlander

Ben Hicks, JV's best friend from high school and older brother of TIger's Hicks

They were discussed on broadcast today

[henrygandorf 29192]

the entire point of the 2nd half of the season is to finish better than the indians.

as long as we finish 1st or 2nd seed in the al, we have homefield vs the wildcard team or the indians.

cut and dried.  that is it.

[Jacob McCandles 202]

On 5/30/2018 at 12:52 PM, Jacob McCandles said:

Yes, odds not good of both as WC. Right now, Astros are 84% to win division. Yankees are 50% to win division.

I just want a dependable Pen, and a reasonable plan to use it, come September/October

If Hinch wants to use guys only one inning, and set up a Dotel-Lidge-Wagner like system for 7, 8, 9, I think he needs to define the roles, go that way now, and start training the guys mentally for those roles. Relievers are head cases and need a bunch of coddling and positive affirmation. Come out and say "Kenneth is the closer and will work every save situation unless he throws too many pitches saving the prior X number of games." 

If Hinch wants to use whoever is hot or whoever is the best match up, he needs to start letting guys go more than one inning.  Devo threw 9 pitches in the 8th on Sunday; Smith threw 9 pitches in the 7th last night; Rondon threw 10 pitches in the 8th last night. All were effective. All could have gone another inning if properly prepared/conditioned mentally and physically to do so.

To follow up on HG's post ...

Stay ahead of the Tribe

Get the SS healthy

Get a plan for the Pen 

[tx 3 putt 76988]

I wonder if Hinch is going to roll the starters through some long breaks over the next 6 weeks ?

[UTexasFight 9464]

I wonder if Hinch is going to roll the starters through some long breaks over the next 6 weeks ?

Good news is he could just about let each guy pitch every 5th game and it would pretty much work out that way on its own.
After the break, from July 20 - August 23, the team has 7 off days. That averages to one every 5 games.

They have 10 in a row to finish the season. Hopefully the aforementioned #2 seed is locked up no more than 4 or so games into that stretch and we let Fresno and Corpus take this season home.

[Viper 12109]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-ken-giles-became-a-minor-leaguer/

Quote

How Ken Giles Became a Minor Leaguer

by Jay Jaffe

July 13, 2018

Ken Giles did not have a good night on Tuesday. Called upon in the top of the ninth inning to protect the Astros’ 4-0 lead over the A’s, he served up three straight singles over the course of eight pitches, allowing one run and bringing the tying run to the plate in the form of Matt Olson. On the heels of a visit from pitching coach Brent Strom after back-to-back hits by Mark Canha and Jed Lowrie, manager A.J. Hinch didn’t like what he saw, and after a first-pitch single by Khris Davis, came out to get Giles, who… didn’t like what he saw either. The closer appeared to have some choice words as he handed over the ball.

The A’s wound up tying the game in the ninth, with all three runs charged to Giles’ room, and they went ahead, 5-4, in the top of the 11th. The Astros nonetheless rallied for two runs in the bottom of the inning, scoring the winning run in bizarre fashion, when A’s catcher Jonathan Lucroy made a hash of Alex Bregman’s swinging bunt:

 

Giles was reportedly not in the clubhouse after the game, and by Wednesday afternoon, he was a Fresno Grizzly. He’d been optioned to the team’s Triple-A affiliate in what general manager Jeff Luhnow called “a baseball decision.”

The GM added:

“I don’t know what he said (on Tuesday). Things are said between players and players and staff, and that’s a clubhouse issue. That’s dealt with separately. This was a baseball decision. Ken has had success in certain situations and he hasn’t been successful in other situations the way he should be.”

Luhnow steered clear of singling out Giles’ displays of anger, which included punching himself in the face after serving up a three-run homer to the Yankees’ Gary Sanchez on May 1. Hinch, however, expressed concern, saying, “He pitches with a lot of emotion and when things are going well, we love it, and when things aren’t going well we have our concerns just because of the volatility of the end of the game type stuff.”

 

Giles hasn’t been to the minors since he was called up by the Phillies in June 2014, but the 27-year-old righty has pitched erratically this year and hasn’t come close to the lofty expectations that come with being acquired in exchange for five prospects, as he was in December 2015. Though he saved 34 games in the regular season last year, he quickly became the invisible closer during the Astros’ championship run, getting lit up for 10 runs in 7.2 postseason innings. While he netted a save in closing out the Division Series against the Red Sox and another in the ALCS opener against the Yankees, he turned two-run leads into one-run leads both times. After he blew the save and took the loss in ALCS Game Four, he didn’t get another save chance, as Hinch kept the ball in the hands of starters-turned-relievers Charlie Morton, Lance McCullers Jr., and Brad Peacock for multiple innings rather than turn the ball over to Giles — a departure from orthodoxy that played a huge role in the team’s ALCS and World Series wins.

While Giles has more saves (12) than any other Astro this year, has converted each of save opportunity successfully, and has pitched the ninth inning in 27 of his 34 appearances (compared to just five in the eighth), Hinch hasn’t hesitated to use other pitchers to close games as well based upon matchups. Hector Rondon has seven saves and has outpitched Giles in terms of both ERA and FIP (1.62 and 1.78 for Rondon, 4.99 and 2.25 for Giles). Chris Devenski has two saves and has generally been more effective than Giles, as well (2.45 ERA, 2.88 FIP). Brad Peacock (3.12 ERA, 4.12 FIP) has two saves, too.

In the wake of last fall’s diminished role, it seems clear that Hinch doesn’t trust Giles to the same extent that he once did. On April 14, Hinch conceded to the Houston Chronicle that he had not “done a good enough job” of finding work for Giles in non-save situations. Though Giles notched his first save of the year on April 9, it was really only from April 25 through the end of May when he was consistently the ninth-inning go-to guy. His failure to protect an 8-3 lead against the Indians on May 27 — another three-hits-and-out stint — this one including a 17-pitch battle that he lost to José Ramírez — kicked off a five-run rally in a game the Astros lost in 14 innings, and more or less ended Giles’ hold on regular closing duty. Eight of his 12 saves came in that five-week span, but he’s had only three save opportunities since, with Rondon receiving seven and converting five in that span, Devenski blowing his only chance, and Peacock converting a two-inning save.

Despite all of the juggling, the system has worked well for the Astros, if not for Giles himself. Though they were victimized by the A’s twice while losing three out of four games in Houston this week, the Astros’ bullpen has the AL’s second-lowest ERA (2.85) and FIP (2.88), and the team has the league’s third-highest winning percentage (.902, 46-5) in games in which they’ve led after six innings, behind the Red Sox (.946, 53-3) and Yankees (.940, 47-3).

As the Astros’ broadcast pointed out on Tuesday night while Giles dug himself a hole, he’s pitched brilliantly in those save opportunities this year, not allowing a single run (though his only inherited runner in those situations scored). Here’s a FanGraphs-flavored version of the split:

 

Ken Giles in Save and Non-Save Sitautions, 2018

Situation	G	IP	H	BB%	K%	ERA	FIP
Save	12	11.0	7	2.5%	37.5%	0.00	0.68
Non-Save	22	19.2	29	2.2%	18.0%	7.78	3.13
Total	34	30.2	36	2.3%	24.0%	4.99	2.25

Giles has been untouchable in save spots, holding batters to a .179/.200/.179 line, but in all of his other appearances, he’s been beaten at a .333/.348/.517 clip. It’s not uncommon to hear complaints about closers not pitching well in non-save situations, perhaps due to a lack of intensity or focus. Certain closers seem to wind up as targets of the ire of bloggers or sports talk radio spittle-sprayers, complaints that tend to hinge upon selective memory and small sample sizes within a given season. For what it’s worth, in Giles’ five-year career, his numbers are better in non-save situations (2.54 ERA, 2.10 FIP in 132.2 IP) than in save situations (2.92 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 142 IP).

Both Hinch and Luhnow cited Giles’ problems with his slider, which he throws 42.3% of the time, with his four-seam fastball accounting for virtually all of the balance of his pitches. His overall numbers on the pitch look quite healthy: a 47.0% out-of-zone swing rate, 27.6% whiff rate, and .128/.128/.277 line (15 wRC+) on the 47 at-bats that ended with a slider. Those may not be at their peaks within his five-season career, but they’re within the ranges of what he’s done in the past:

 

Ken Giles’ Slider, 2014-18

Year	Pitches	O-Swing%	SwStr%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	wOBA	xwOBA
2014	277	47.1%	24.9%	.099	.135	.113	-23	.118	n/a
2015	446	46.3%	25.1%	.171	.205	.225	28	.192	.196
2016	529	54.9%	34.0%	.094	.141	.188	-1	.158	.131
2017	450	46.5%	23.1%	.130	.151	.211	5	.157	.163
2018	196	47.0%	27.6%	.128	.128	.277	15	.168	.225
Total	1898	49.2%	27.3%	.125	.156	.200	5	.168	.169

wOBA and xwOBA via Baseball Savant. Data for 2014 not included in total calculations for those categories.

The erosion in Giles’ performance stands out a bit more in terms of his relative rankings among qualifiers — pitchers who’ve thrown at least 200 sliders over a full season, 100 this year, and/or 500 over the three-season span — in wRC+, O-Swing% and SwStr%.:

 

Relative Rankings of Giles’ Slider Among Qualifiers

Year	Qualifiers	wRC+	O-Swing%	SwStr%
2016	202	6	1	1
2017	211	12	22	24
2018	260	37	24	10
Total	195	4	3	2

Number of qualifiers is based on those who threw at least 200 sliders in 2016 and -17, 100 in 2018, and 500 from 2016 to -18.

Across the 2016-18 span, Giles’ slider is in the top four of all three of these measures, but his standing in 2018 isn’t what it once was. In wRC+, he’s fallen from the 97th percentile to the 86th, though the drops in the other category aren’t as steep.

One thing that stands out in that table of raw data above, beyond those insane 2016 numbers, is the elevated slugging percentage and xwOBA against him this year; when his slider has been hit, it’s been hit a bit harder. Where he allowed five homers on sliders in 2016-17, one for every 196 thrown, he’s allowed two this year, one for every 98 thrown — twice the frequency! But still, that’s pretty subtle, and in fact, his Statcast average exit velocity on the pitch is down from last year (82.3 mph vs. 84.9), with the average launch angle unchanged (13 degrees).

It’s actually Giles’ fastball that’s getting mercilessly pummeled (.380/.402/.506, 164 wRC+) this year relative to last (.283/.392/.404, 131 wRC+). His velocity is down slightly (from 98.4 to 97.9), his swinging-strike rate has dropped substantially (from 10.7% to 8.2%), and his average exit velo has soared from 87.8 mph to 93.6 mph, with his xwOBA rising from .344 to .392. He’s throwing the fastball more (57.7%, up from 52.8%), which is probably exacerbating his problems with both pitches.

According to Hinch, Giles’ slider lacks the shape or depth it had previously. Indeed, via Brooks Baseball, here’s a game-by-game graphs of the pitch’s horizontal movement:

In March and April, the pitch averaged 1.27 inches of horizontal movement to the glove side, but that dropped to 0.87 inches in May and -0.2 inches — in other words, more towards the arm side — in June. I asked FanGraphs alum and pitch-shapes expert Eno Sarris (now at The Athletic) to describe what he saw in Giles’ monthly variance in movement. “Crazy weird,” he said, adding, “It looks like he had too much cut early [this season] and then tried to correct it and went too far.”

Meanwhile, here’s the game-by-game graph of the vertical movement of Giles’ slider:

Two years ago, Giles’ slider had an average drop of 0.18 inches — slightly less than expected due to gravity. Last year, that increased to 0.47 and this year to 1.20, so his slider is averaging an inch less drop than in 2016. Couple that with the horizontal inconsistency and, yes, that’s a different shape with less depth.

It’s fair to wonder if Giles’ erratic performance owes anything to the Astros’ unorthodox approach. Maybe he feels the need to be The Man and is lost in other roles. It’s certainly possible that the relationship with Hinch is strained. With two years of club control remaining after this one, he could be an appealing asset to trade come July 31, at least if the Astros can get him pointed back in the right direction. Ultimately, however, the team would probably be better off if he could just rediscover his dominant ninth-inning form.

 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

15 hours ago, BornOrange said:

I opened that link in a new tab, but just got around to reading two days later.

We need to bring Beltran back in some way, in whatever limited way he finds acceptable.

If he doesn't want a full-time gig, have him come to Houston for a home stand, join the team on a road trip.....whatever he will accept.

Totally agree. The stuff about Beltran and his effect on the team's chemistry and his figuring out Darvish's tell was the most eye opening part of Astroball for me. I didn't fully appreciate what his presence meant for the club last year.  He would have been worth every penny of the $16m he earned even if he never had an AB. 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

4 hours ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Totally agree. The stuff about Beltran and his effect on the team's chemistry and his figuring out Darvish's tell was the most eye opening part of Astroball for me. I didn't fully appreciate what his presence meant for the club last year.  He would have been worth every penny of the $16m he earned even if he never had an AB. 

He’d have been worth more without an at bat.  

[Johnny Sack 8397]

21 hours ago, Scraps said:

On 7/15/2018 at 3:51 PM, tx 3 putt said:

Tyler White back to AAA 

I'd be happy if i never see him in an Astros uni ever again

You hate White’s OPS plus of 130 in both 2017 and 2018?

I think he’s performed well in limited at bats.  White has performed better than expected.  Marwin and Springer are the ones who need to step up.  I’m very positive Springer will.  He has a track record.  

Edited July 16, 2018 by Johnny Sack

[Scraps 13561]

Yes. If he's so awesome lets trade him for something of need then lol

[henrygandorf 29192]

i can't envision a more awkward and terrible angle to watch to see if someone is going to hit a homer.

[tx 3 putt 76988]

Damn that was fun 

[tx 3 putt 76988]

White needs to be playing for another team everyday. Spot action on this team isn’t doing him any good 

[thetruth 149]

Bregman did well. Fun to watch. Glad he didn't go any further to fuck up his swing. 

[henrygandorf 29192]

Just now, thetruth said:

Bregman did well. Fun to watch. Glad he didn't go any further to fuck up his swing. 

this. 

nice to see how close our guys really are.  i mean, we knew that, but now everyone else sees it.

[runthebone 8000]

At the HR derby.  Bregman did well, just needs to pull it for it to get out, which is a disadvantage.  Decent Astros fan contingent.  

[thetruth 149]

Check Joe Musgrove's Instagram. His video is up of him rooting for Bregman in the Derby. Joe is a good dude, and it shows how infectious Bregman's personality actually is. 

HG was right, this team loves each other, even with Cole being here half a season and Verlander for less than a year. So MFin' fun to watch. 

[Guadaloopy 10973]

9 minutes ago, thetruth said:

Bregman did well. Fun to watch. Glad he didn't go any further to fuck up his swing. 

He hit a bunch of carbon copy HRs to nearly the same spot.  If anything, he dialed in his power stroke even more.   He said he was going to play his game, and he did.  And he almost pulled the huge upset.  

[Scraps 13561]

You aint fucking up Bregmans swing. He could do this for 5 hrs straight and it aint gonna fuck it up

[Gut Wagon 8081]

Watching this format, j can’t help but think Gattis would hit about 35 dingers in that amount of time. 

[ImGolfn 77]

13 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

Watching this format, j can’t help but think Gattis would hit about 35 dingers in that amount of time. 

Only on balls thrown out of the strike zone

[WBT 20592]

20 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

Watching this format, j can’t help but think Gattis would hit about 35 dingers in that amount of time. 

That would be fun.  He'd have to find a bp pitcher that could crank in chin high fastballs over and over

[huge 3793]

this. 
nice to see how close our guys really are.  i mean, we knew that, but now everyone else sees it.

Commentators were talking about how Springer was basically doing jumping jacks he was so excited at the end of Bregs round.

[UTexasFight 9464]

Check Joe Musgrove's Instagram. His video is up of him rooting for Bregman in the Derby. Joe is a good dude, and it shows how infectious Bregman's personality actually is. 

Yeah don’t forgot how much time joe and Bregs spent coming up together in the minors.
Wish we still had him but needless to stay, that looks like a good deal for both sides right now

[ausjala 101]

On 7/16/2018 at 4:47 AM, UTexasFight said:

Dog looks pissed.

[Rustic Horn 929]

 

[APMP 688]

Where was Charlie, did he have a guitar gig or something?

[huge 3793]

CFM was there with his son. They showed them talking to Bregman after the others.

[Scraps 13561]

Charlie is antisocial.  He probably would rather have been holed up in a basement somewhere until the next time he pitches.  

[henrygandorf 29192]

they showed him there carrying a small child, so it would've been a little more difficult to jump around with the guys, but he was a few yards away.

[Mez2 4023]

August 27th - ring day

[HtownHorn 14705]

15 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Damn that was fun 

The Bregman timeout was awesome with all the Astros coming up to talk with him, and then Cole realizing he wasn't out there with them and running it late. Altuve's focus advice. You could see how much this team likes being around each other.

[henrygandorf 29192]

hopefully correa was watching it on tv realizing he needs to get the fuck over whatever is keeping him off the field.

[Pablo 494]

19 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

hopefully correa was watching it on tv realizing he needs to get the fuck over whatever is keeping him off the field.

Is it simply a sore back?  After all this time off are they just being super cautious?

No one is really even talking about it.  It worries me that he hasn't even swung a bat.

[Scraps 13561]

So story for memorabilia dorks like me:


Tristar came out with these hidden treasures signed baseballs. You don't know who it is, or if it is a WS ball or regular ball. All are authenticated. You could get full team, old players, prospects, etc.

I bought 1 from a guy and have been waiting for about 3 weeks to receive it. In the meantime i bought 3 at the Tristar show a week ago and pulled Reddick WS ball Correa WS ball, and Giles on a shitty regular ball.

Today my first one finally came in and I hit the jackpot:

[UTexasFight 9464]

^^^^^^

[David Dennison 18911]

2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

hopefully correa was watching it on tv realizing he needs to get the fuck over whatever is keeping him off the field.

I don't think it's up to him.

[Planet Houston 4930]

14 hours ago, APMP said:

Where was Charlie, did he have a guitar gig or something?

I can't wait for Charlie and Barry Zito to start a band together.

Cool shit watching Bregman last night.  He would've been fine had he advanced.  As y'all have said, so great watching the rest of our guys into it like they were.  And the crowd, too.

[tx 3 putt 76988]

Altuve’s base buddy was almost as tall as him