Jump to content

2018 Houston Astros Season Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
in Baseball

 Share

Recommended Posts

Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8083

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Look, I get frustrated with the guy too for seemingly always dealing with nagging injuries; he's not exactly Cal Ripken out there in that regard.

But he absolutely makes a huge difference in the lineup. He has a 134 wRC+ for his career, and 128 this year. That 128 ties him for 3rd among SS behind only Lindor and Machado, and it is fairly likely that that number will come up a bit (if he ever plays again). When he's out of the lineup, it means that Marwin or JD Davis is probably in. Marwin is sporting a wRC+ of 86 this year (14% below MLB average) and Davis is at 57 (43% below MLB average). 

So you're taking away a very good bat (+28%) and replacing it with a pretty bad one (-20%). Every day. That's a huge difference. 

Now take Altuve and his wRC+ of 139 out of the lineup also (1st among 2B in MLB), and now you have both Marwin and Davis in. So you're replacing 128 and 139 with 86 and 57. 

The offense is going to be very inconsistent (and very frustrating) with these guys out. Springer and Bregman can only do so much. 

My growing frustration with Correa isn't so much on the injury front. That's annoying, but I'll assume it can't be helped. It's just that I don't feel he's a demonstrably better hitter than when he broke into the bigs. I can't think of any good reason he shouldn't be, as it's a rare player who simply maintains a really solid start. Try putting a halfway decent MLB hitter/fielder in his place, and I think we'd really see Correa isn't all that.

Do I hope he suddenly turns it on and is a monster for the rest of a long career in Houston? Of course. I'm an Astros fan. But I'm by no means betting on this guy doing any of the following: (1) staying healthy; (2) getting better; or (3) being an Astro for life.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 27.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • UTexasFight

    1691

  • Seasick Sailor

    1501

  • Mez2

    1467

  • Scraps

    1294

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

TexArcher
TexArcher

Bregs is going Crawford Boxes right here.

ERhine
ERhine

Prior to the footage being edited by Bender:

wesleywest
wesleywest

Two Diamond Club tickets available for the Sunday night game.  Free.  Need to pick them up from me in 77027. Rules: Poster must be a big contributor to this thread/last years shag thread.  No gue

TexArcher

TexArcher 37980

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

My growing frustration with Correa isn't so much on the injury front. That's annoying, but I'll assume it can't be helped. It's just that I don't feel he's a demonstrably better hitter than when he broke into the bigs. I can't think of any good reason he shouldn't be, as it's a rare player who simply maintains a really solid start. Try putting a halfway decent MLB hitter/fielder in his place, and I think we'd really see Correa isn't all that.

Do I hope he suddenly turns it on and is a monster for the rest of a long career in Houston? Of course. I'm an Astros fan. But I'm by no means betting on this guy doing any of the following: (1) staying healthy; (2) getting better; or (3) being an Astro for life.  

Correa in all of 2016: .274 with 20 HR.

Correa in 2/3 of 2017: .315 with 24 HR.

Correa in less than 1/2 of 2018: .268 with 13 HR.

Yes, his BA regressed some this season, but he was still on pace for 30-ish HR.  And he's still only 23.  He is definitely developing, if he can ever stay healthy, which is obviously a big concern.

He is already a metric fuckton better hitter than the vast majority of shortstops.

 

Edited by TexArcher
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8083

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Correa in all of 2016: .274 with 20 HR.

Correa in 2/3 of 2017: .315 with 24 HR.

Correa in less than 1/2 of 2018: .268 with 13 HR.

Yes, his BA regressed some this season, but he was still on pace for 30-ish HR.  And he's still on only 23.  He is definitely developing, if he can ever stay healthy, which is obviously a big concern.

He is already a metric fuckton better hitter than the vast majority of shortstops.

 

He's absolutely a good player, when healthy. HOF potential, I'd say. I just don't think it's a given he's more likely to be 2017 Correa the rest of his career than Marwin, Reddick or Springer is to repeat last season's anomalous bump. 

But part of my point is that, with Correa, it might not matter in the short term. Even when he and Altuve were at 100 percent earlier this season, we went through some incredibly feeble stretches on offense. Just about as bad as now. So I really don't think those two guys can elevate us to title level without a good bit of help from other guys. Whether those others are currently on the roster I don't know, but things don't look very encouraging right now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TexArcher

TexArcher 37980

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

He's absolutely a good player, when healthy. HOF potential, I'd say. I just don't think it's a given he's more likely to be 2017 Correa the rest of his career than Marwin, Reddick or Springer is to repeat last season's anomalous bump. 

But part of my point is that, with Correa, it might not matter in the short term. Even when he and Altuve were at 100 percent earlier this season, we went through some incredibly feeble stretches on offense. Just about as bad as now. So I really don't think those two guys can elevate us to title level without a good bit of help from other guys. Whether those others are currently on the roster I don't know, but things don't look very encouraging right now. 

Yeah, I'm with you on a lot of that.  I loved having an offense that could put up 7+ on any given night last year.  And we don't have that right now. 

But then I have to remind myself that we're on pace for 102 wins anyway.  And we have the best rotation in MLB.  And the bullpen's improved.

We may just have to beat people 3-2 in the playoffs this time.  But we're built to be able to do that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8083

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Yeah, I'm with you on a lot of that.  I loved having an offense that could put up 7+ on any given night last year.  And we don't have that right now. 

But then I have to remind myself that we're on pace for 102 wins anyway.  And we have the best rotation in MLB.  And the bullpen's improved.

We may just have to beat people 3-2 in the playoffs this time.  But we're built to be able to do that.

We're not far apart on thinking, really. I'm obviously hoping every concern I have about Correa, the struggling hitters and even Devo and Peacock is massively overblown. I'd love to look back on this in November and say, "Why was I at all concerned?" But I'm just trying to rely on my eyes and common sense right now, neither of which have me very confident. 

All that said...let's just win a bunch of games and see what happens.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TexArcher

TexArcher 37980

Posted
Posted

Exactly.  There are concerns, but nothing as glaring as the gascan bullpen from last year.  And the 2017 Astros had stretches of really bad baseball, too.  It just happens.

If we have everybody healthy and ready to go for the ALDS, we're the favorite to win the whole thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

My growing frustration with Correa isn't so much on the injury front. That's annoying, but I'll assume it can't be helped. It's just that I don't feel he's a demonstrably better hitter than when he broke into the bigs. I can't think of any good reason he shouldn't be, as it's a rare player who simply maintains a really solid start. Try putting a halfway decent MLB hitter/fielder in his place, and I think we'd really see Correa isn't all that.

Do I hope he suddenly turns it on and is a monster for the rest of a long career in Houston? Of course. I'm an Astros fan. But I'm by no means betting on this guy doing any of the following: (1) staying healthy; (2) getting better; or (3) being an Astro for life.  

He seemed to be making that "leap" last year - he was at .320/.400/.566 on July 17 and was a leading MVP candidate. He then missed the next 42 games with an injury. He's played in only 98 of the last 175 games since then. SO it's difficult to tell if he is improving. 

But even if he never improves, he's still one of the best few SS in baseball. It's all about health with him. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8083

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

He seemed to be making that "leap" last year - he was at .320/.400/.566 on July 17 and was a leading MVP candidate. He then missed the next 42 games with an injury. He's played in only 98 of the last 175 games since then. SO it's difficult to tell if he is improving. 

But even if he never improves, he's still one of the best few SS in baseball. It's all about health with him. 

Fair points. Hopefully we'll now get to see him in enough long stretches of health to know what he's truly capable of. We all know the ceiling is sky-high, but he has to be on the field for that to matter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8083

Posted
Posted (edited)

How comical those "run differential" arguments now seem. Actually, they seemed pretty comical at the time, given that the bloated stats clearly were being built against teams that didn't matter. 

Unfortunately, if we don't turn it around pronto, we could end up being one of those teams.

 

 

Edited by Gut Wagon
Link to comment
Share on other sites
David Dennison

David Dennison 18924

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

We play Seattle and Oakland 13 times over the next 20 games. With THIS offense.

 

This is our concern, dude.

Missing two of our best players for who knows how long is a gut punch.

Oh, and we also play the Dodgers and Rockies in those 20 games.

Edited by David Dennison
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gut Wagon

Gut Wagon 8083

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty sure we Astros fans don't want the team to crash and burn. But we can only judge it on what we see. Which isn't at all encouraging right now. Do we expect things to turn around? Sure. But did we expect the team to be struggling like this right now, with two other teams in the West showing really well? I don't think so. We're waiting for that sharp turnaround, and it needs to happen long before September. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
David Dennison

David Dennison 18924

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Gut Wagon said:

I'm pretty sure we Astros fans don't want the team to crash and burn. But we can only judge it on what we see. Which isn't at all encouraging right now. Do we expect things to turn around? Sure. But did we expect the team to be struggling like this right now, with two other teams in the West showing really well? I don't think so. We're waiting for that sharp turnaround, and it needs to happen long before September. 

 

Last year's fifteen game lead made August easier to handle.

We have two teams right on our ass this year.

August is brutal and a third of our line up is a minor league team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kevwun

kevwun 15806

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

I think Altuve will come back before Correa. Back injuries are so hard to predict how long they will last

That's just about guarantee I think.  Last year he played 6 games at Fresno in his rehab stint.  So if he doesn't start that until the end of the upcoming week.  He will probably be out for another 10-14 days at the minimum.

Edited by kevwun
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...