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2018 Houston Astros Season Thread

Planet Houston

By Planet Houston
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Viper

Viper 12030

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Posted

 

14 hours ago, TexArcher said:

I was told the Yankees were the 2018 champions and this was all a formality.

 

12 hours ago, Simon Honeybone said:

Never go full helobius

which reminds me, it's October, the season for negging Helobius: https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/5100-al-wild-card-game-thread-yankees-vs-as/ 

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TexArcher
TexArcher

Bregs is going Crawford Boxes right here.

ERhine
ERhine

Prior to the footage being edited by Bender:

wesleywest
wesleywest

Two Diamond Club tickets available for the Sunday night game.  Free.  Need to pick them up from me in 77027. Rules: Poster must be a big contributor to this thread/last years shag thread.  No gue

MAROON

MAROON 445

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Fozzz said:

Straw is probably somewhere in the 29-30 ft/s range.  He was allegedly over 30 ft/s in his first couple of attempts (per Kaplan) but he's currently listed at 29 ft/s (between 5-10 attempts) on baseballsavant.

Lunhow was quoted as saying he's the second fastest player in all of MLB.  At least that's the answer his minions got when they programmed it into the WOPR

 

wopr.jpg

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22600

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Smith was brought in as a roogy, but he's been pretty disappointing.  We'll probably still see him though if the Astros make the ALCS given what they paid for him.

He's been bad 2 of the last 3 outings, but before that he had a 1.04 ERA with a 35 to 6 K/BB ratio over 42 appearances from May 5 through September 17.

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Posted

His FIP/xFIP for this season are both above his steamer projections, which aren't great to begin with, and far worse than his numbers last year.  I think they might have tried the 'Astros way' on him for some reason as he's exchanged quite a few sinkers for four-seamers this season, which has blown up his FB% without leading to an increase in swinging strikes (his K% is actually much worse this year).  His velocity is down by around 1-1.5 mph from last year, which may explain why there hasn't been any upside (and only downside) to his change in pitch mix.  

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22600

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41 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

His FIP/xFIP for this season are both above his steamer projections, which aren't great to begin with, and far worse than his numbers last year.  I think they might have tried the 'Astros way' on him for some reason as he's exchanged quite a few sinkers for four-seamers this season, which has blown up his FB% without leading to an increase in swinging strikes (his K% is actually much worse this year).  His velocity is down by around 1-1.5 mph from last year, which may explain why there hasn't been any upside (and only downside) to his change in pitch mix.  

I mean this is cool and all, but for four and a half months he gave up 16 hits and 4 runs in 34.2 innings with a .434 OPS against.  Maybe the underlying stats say it was luck or something, but on the field he was REALLY good.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I mean this is cool and all, but for four and a half months he gave up 16 hits and 4 runs in 34.2 innings with a .434 OPS against.  Maybe the underlying stats say it was luck or something, but on the field he was REALLY good.

How many balls in play do you think it takes for a pitcher's BABIP skill to outweigh pure luck?  For instance, if a pitcher allows zero hits on five total balls put into play, obviously we cannot draw any conclusions from that sample about that pitcher's BABIP skill as with such a small sample the result (.000 BABIP against) is almost entirely due to luck, right? In other words, based off that evidence alone, we would not expect the pitcher to maintain a near zero BABIP moving forward.  However, over the course of a pitcher's career, if he allows 3,000 hits on 10,000 balls put into play, then we could feel comfortable saying that his .300 BABIP against is largely respective of his particular skill.  

Where do you think the tipping point in BIP sample size where we can say that a pitcher's skill outweighs the luck involved?  50 BIP? 100 BIP? 500 BIP?  The answer is important when evaluating the salience of Smith's 16 hits yielded in 34.2 innings stat you cite.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22600

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5 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

How many balls in play do you think it takes for a pitcher's BABIP skill to outweigh pure luck?  For instance, if a pitcher allows zero hits on five total balls put into play, obviously we cannot draw any conclusions from that sample about that pitcher's BABIP skill as with such a small sample the result (.000 BABIP against) is almost entirely due to luck, right? In other words, based off that evidence alone, we would not expect the pitcher to maintain a near zero BABIP moving forward.  However, over the course of a pitcher's career, if he allows 3,000 hits on 10,000 balls put into play, then we could feel comfortable saying that his .300 BABIP against is largely respective of his particular skill.  

Where do you think the tipping point in BIP sample size where we can say that a pitcher's skill outweighs the luck involved?  50 BIP? 100 BIP? 500 BIP?  The answer is important when evaluating the salience of Smith's 16 hits yielded in 34.2 innings stat you cite.

You will get no disagreement from me that these metrics are all important when trying to predict future performance.  But they are just noise when analyzing the past.  For the vast majority of the season, he was very, very good.  I will not argue that his metrics point to potential playoff disappointment, I was merely arguing the point that he has been "disappointing" this season.  Unless you placed some prop bet on his advanced metrics, his results were unarguably very good for the vast majority of the season.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19151

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1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

He's been bad 2 of the last 3 outings, but before that he had a 1.04 ERA with a 35 to 6 K/BB ratio over 42 appearances from May 5 through September 17.

Yeah, he started off like shit then straightened up.  I was starting to come around on the guy and didn't panic before he came in.  Then he had his last couple of appearances and went back to being shit.

Same with Harris, but kind of in the opposite direction.  Harris has been great lately after being shit before that.  I just hope Hinch and the guys can see into the future and figure out which one isn't going to pull a 2017 playoffs Giles on us.  Leave that one at home and bring the other one along for the ride.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22600

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Just now, Fozzz said:

Rondon is solid but against a lefty heavy lineup and a limited number of relievers I can see why they went with a multi inning guy in James and Harris with his opposite hitter friendly pitch mix.  

Oh yeah, it absolutely makes sense strategically.  Just pretty ballsy to leave off your most frequently used reliever.  (And second most, in Peacock.)

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

Oh yeah, it absolutely makes sense strategically.  Just pretty ballsy to leave off your most frequently used reliever.  (And second most, in Peacock.)

I like Peacock a little more than Rondon but his velo has been falling off the past month or so, which is concerning.

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Scraps

Scraps 13542

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Posted
LMJ on mlb radio right meow

LMJ bday was Oct 2nd. Correa set up a bday party to Drake. Alot of guys went.

 

Excited to help team however. BP is best position for him to help team after the injury. They had one shot to get him right for playoffs and thankfully everything went well.

 

Comfortable with his stuff and coming in any situation. Will head out to BP 4th or 5th inning and immediately start throwing to get warm. Also told Hinch to treat him just like rest of the guys and if he needs him immediately then he will be ready.

 

Comparing seasons....alot of same players. Think we got better in offseason. Everyone still hungry.

 

Asked about Bregman. He said Nregman cancelled on the Drake concert the other day. Last night around 11pm he hit up guys on the team letting them know he was heading to stadium to get some cage hacks in if anyone wanted to join

 

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